Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
  • Like
Internet Markets: crisis 2.0?
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Now you can save presentations on your phone or tablet

Available for both IPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Internet Markets: crisis 2.0?

  • 1,143 views
Published

 

Published in Business , Technology
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
1,143
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
57
Comments
0
Likes
1

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Mick Gourevitch RBC Internet Markets: crisis 2.0?
  • 2. Internet drivers:
    • the end of 1990’s: news sites;
    • mid 2000’s: blogs;
    • 2006-2007: social networks;
    • 2008 and further: video + mobile?
  • 3. Video
    • New huge market:
    • Analysts predicted
    • 600% growth
    • for 2007-2012
  • 4. Mobile
    • The growth of users with 240x320 screen resolution in Runet (Liveinternet data)
  • 5. Mobile advertising revenues
    • $19,5 billion in 2012;
    • 3,5 billion mobile phones
    • worldwide;
    • 70% penetration 3G
    • in Korea and Japan;
    • Worldwide mobile television subscriptions are expected to grow 5x to $19 bln by 2012 compared with $408 mln in 2007, Pricewaterhouse said .
  • 6.
    • Do you really want to talk about it?
  • 7. Autumn 2008:
    • “ Verge of collapse”
    • “ Global economic meltdown”
    • “ The end of web 2.0 era”
    • We all die?
  • 8. Fact Pack (1/3)
    • Plans to lay-off company stuff:
    • Yahoo: 10% of more till the end of year;
    • eBay: 10% (about 1600 employees);
    • Online ad network AdBrite: 40%;
    • Top 3 social network Hi5: 15%;
    • Those companies, that haven’t cut off the staff, have frozen their new vacancies
    • Who will be the next?..
  • 9. Fact Pack (2/3)
    • Industry forecasts are lowered:
    • ZenithOptimedia: Global ad spending growth
      • 2008 6,6% 4,3%
      • 2009 6,0% 4,0%
    • Goldman Sachs: decline in separate ad revenues
        • for TV – 7%
        • for broadcast networks – 5%
        • for the radio, outdoor, magazines sectors – 5-10%
  • 10. Fact Pack (3/3)
    • ZenithOptimedia:
    • 2009-2010 – 12% growth ad spending in CEE;
    • Internet advertising is expected to grow by an average of 23% per year between 2007 and 2010 globally;
    • Russia is expected to be top 6 ad market (Oct. 2008 forecast).
  • 11. Are they right?
  • 12. Internet crisises: history
    • 1998 crisis in emerging countries;
    • Dot.com burst 2000’s;
    • 2008-…
  • 13. Dot.com crisis 2000’s: outcome
    •  Shake-out;
    •  Many start-ups have been frozen;
    •  Companies, which have had a strong monetization model and invested resources in technical development, became the leaders of new epoch.
    • They created new web 2.0 Internet
  • 14. Crisis 2008: net out
    • Good news:
      • World Internet penetration is more then 20% of population (Russia – 23%, Poland – 42%);
      • Internet is a basic sociological necessit y of life now;
      • Diversified revenues of Internet-companies (media ads, context ads, micropayments, e-commerce);
      • Internet became a whole industry;
      • Internet dictates its will to the traditional economics
      • (music industry, for ex.)
  • 15. Crisis 2008: net out
    • Bad news:
      • Huge amount of startups without established revenue model
      • (they still try to sell happiness);
      • Huge cost expenses (esp. for videohostings);
      • Stock market dependence;
      • Owners of start-ups still need to justify previous funding
      • GET YOUR REVENUE MODEL NOW OR GO HOME
  • 16. Our forecast: We will survive! <not all of us> :)
  • 17. Social networking and dating sites
    • People need to communicate every day
    • Diversified revenue model;
    • Vast audience;
    • Micropayments;
    • It is very good for you, if you have API.
  • 18. Video
    • You should find a revenue model or you have problems
    • Still have no revenue model;
    • Cost expenses are highest (servers, channels);
    • The most experimental forms of ads (video ads included) are the most susceptible to cutbacks.
    • But:
    • Vast audience;
    • People will prefer to watch a new film at home, not in cinema.
  • 19. Search
    • Search still feels good! 
    • Search is the most protected area of online advertising, with its low price and high CTR
    • SearchIgnite report:
    • 27% growth in search spending for 3Q2008/3Q2007
    • But:
    • Many advertisers leaves the market
    • The fall of CPC
  • 20. Email
    • IM and social networks to overtake email
    • With the growth of social networks and IM-audience, email loses its market share.
    • IDC: IM is set to overtake email as the preferred form of business communication by the 2 nd half of 2010.
    • Email services moves to became more social
  • 21. Marketing services
    • Audience measurement;
      • For startups it is still necessary to endorse its audience for venture investors.
    • Marketing researches;
      • Are needed to understand new trends and directions for development.
    • Advertising networks.
      • Will need to reduce the prices; weak networks will die.
  • 22. Mobile
    • It is not enough just to “produce and sell ring tones” any more.
    • You need to move forward and diversify your core services or prepare to be eaten by mobile operators.
  • 23. New products
    • We have new market rules here:
    • No more fast money: if you have no clear monetization model, you have no funding.
    • No more “another facebook clones” for fast selling.
    • Investors don’t want
    • to see “sellers of happiness” any more
  • 24. Brave New World
  • 25. Audience
    • We predict the growth of the time spent in Internet :
      • People need to know news every day.
      • People need to reduce their expenses (YouTube and Hulu instead of cinema; social networks instead of clubs and restaurants).
      • On the other hand, we see the decline of local broadband penetration on further months. It gives a chance for mobile Internet.
  • 26. Internet advertising
    • We predict no decline, but the growth wouldn’t be so impressive as it used to be before.
    • The hardest hit ad category – financing advertising – contributes only about 4% of global ad expenditure.
    • So why Internet advertising should decline hardly?
    • Huge TV-, Outdoor and Print ad budgets would be redistributed to the benefit of Internet (depends on the market)
    • Context and search ads will expand.
  • 27. Portals/ Media-holdings
    • The point depends of:
      • Degree of your revenue stability and diversification.
      • Amount of your venture initiatives.
      • Internet could be your driving force
  • 28. What analytics says:
    • People will stop to buy;
    • People will stop to get fun and go to cinema;
    • People will stop to eat;
    • People will need no sex…..
    • Are they right?
  • 29. So what to do?
    • Be realistic.
    • Adapt quickly.
    • Make cuts.
    • Became cash-flow positive ASAP.
    • GET REAL!
  • 30. Believe me!
  • 31. Any questions about video and mobile? :) [email_address]