Lecture SeriesMonday, 09.01.2012The world’s food security depends on The Water-Energy-Foodirrigation – whether we like it or not Security Nexus Winter Semester 2011 / 2012Muhammad Mehmood-Ul-Hassan, ZEFZentrum für Entwicklungsforschung , Center forDevelopment Research (ZEF)
The World’s Food Security Dependson Irrigation – Whether we like it or not Mehmood Ul Hassan Center for Development Research University of Bonn mhassan@uni-‐bonn.de January 09, 2012
Outline• What is food security?• The challenge• The state of global food security• Role of irrigation in enhancing food security• Water productivity• Approaches and challenges to increasing water productivity• Concluding Remarks• Key Resources
Food Security defined• FAO’s ideal food security is a “situation when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences... (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007)• In its narrowest definition, food security means that enough (to meet energy and nutrient requirements) food is available, whether at the global, national, community, or household level (Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009).• Halving the global hunger by 2015 is an MDG• FAO uses proportion of undernourished to that of national population as an indicator to assess national food security levels.
Population Growth: Food Security ChallengeSource: UN (2004)
State of Food Security (II)• FAO estimated that the proportion of undernourished in developing world has decreased from 20 to 17% (1990-2003)• The number of undernourished practically has not decreased below 800 million during the past 40 years (over 1 billion remained hungry in 2009!!),• In the regions of Near East and North Africa (NENA) and Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) the number of undernourished people increased throughout.• Half of food insecure population lives in South Asia, NENA and Sub-Saharan Africa• Food insecurity has again witnessed an increasing trend in recent years• FAO estimates that by 2050, 27 countries will face undernourishment levels of above 5% in SA, SSA, and NENA
Food insecurity HotspotsSource: Rockström, et al. 2007.
Irrigated agriculture & food security• The yields of most crops are 100-400% higher under irrigation compared to that of under rain-fed conditions (FAO, 2004)• The yields of rain-fed agriculture can be pushed up by providing (small amounts of) supplemental irrigation• The scale of global irrigated land is estimated at a total of 3,245,566 km², what is nearly the size of India.[CIA, 2010)• About 68% of the area equipped for irrigation is located in Asia, 17% in America, 9% in Europe, 5% in Africa and 1% in Oceania.• The largest contiguous areas of high irrigation density are found in North India and Pakistan along the rivers Ganges and Indus, in the Hai He, Huang He and Yangtze basins in China, along the Nile river in Egypt and Sudan, in the Mississippi-Missouri river basin and in parts of California.• Smaller irrigation areas are spread across almost all populated parts of the world.
Irrigated Agric in Developing Countries• Currently, some 20% (around 205 million hectares) of agricultural land in developing countries is irrigated and it provides about 40% of crop production in these countries.• Asia accounts for more than 90% of world rice production and consumption (Van Tran, 2003)• Crop yield gaps in developing countries are mostly wide (Van Tran, 2003)• The developing countries will become increasingly dependent on cereal imports. By 2030 they could be producing only 86 percent of their own needs, with net imports amounting to some 265 million tonnes annually - almost three times present levels (FAO, 2004).• Developing countries are expected to expand their irrigated area by 40 million hectares by 2030 to ensure their food sovereignty
Asian agriculture is key to global food security
Food Sovereignty and WPRecent trends in global foodprice volatility have forcedcountries to consider options forbeing food sovereignClimate change led events havecaused floods and droughtsImproving water productivity inagriculture is the key wayforward for ensuring a foodsecure world for all (IWMI,2010) Source: FAOSTAT (http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx)
Water ProductivityWater Productivity, a measure that captures efficiency of wateruse in agriculture, is broader in scope than most agronomicapplications and must be considered on a watershed, basin,irrigation district, or catchment scale (Howell, 2001).
Determinants of WP• The causes for the relatively low water productivity in agriculture are numerous and complex, including agronomic, biological, engineering, management, social, and economic facets (Hsiao, et. al, 2007).
Three ways to enhance WP• Improving irrigation technologies (varieties, field level, system automation, rehabilitation)• Right Pricing• Management/ Governance Reforms
WP enhancing technologies• ach irrigation technology suitable for specific group of crops, soil and weather condition E• onsidering financial state of farmers in most developing countries, smart incentives for less capital Cintensive water saving techniques to start with Source: Mar%us, Bekchanov and Damis (forthcoming)
Challenges• Adoption constraints: Farmers with the most owned land, the highest number of acres and the most reliable water supplies are most likely to invest in more efficient irrigation systems during severe droughts (Schuck, et. al., 2005).• As water becomes scarcer (and more unreliable), farmers tend to rely more on groundwater and conjunctive use- Groundwater is much difficult to price and manage• Technical interventions have not always led to the expected, desirable outcomes, and the recommendations in many reports and papers are at best dubious, at worst simply wrong (Perry, 2007)• Appropriateness of technologies- need for transdisciplinarity approaches
Water Pricing• A useful means for achieving efficient allocation of irrigation water is to put the right price tag on it….. various pricing methods differ in the amount and type of information, and the administrative cost, needed in their implementation. The …water pricing methods are most pronounced through their effect on the cropping pattern—more so than through their effect on water demand for a given crop (Tsur and Dinar, 1997).• Pricing irrigation water can only happen when it directly relates to the level of consumption of water: A condition that can not be met in most irrigation systems in the developing world (Perry 2001)• Water markets work best in situations of water scarcity where agriculture and water rights are well developed (Jury and Vaux 2005)• The price that farmers pay for water in many world areas is much less than the value of that water, but the application of right pricing might be impossible in poor countries (Hussain et al. 2007).
Irrigation Reforms The Pentagon ModelSource: Ul Hassan, 2011
Intentions, Instruments and Impacts of irrigation Reforms in AsiaCountry/ Region Leading Key Intentions Instruments Implementation Impact InstitutionsCentral Asia State actors, financing Diverse, not made Legal enactments and None to weak; left to Negligible banks, rural elite clear, state dictated regulations only; donor projects or state involved contracts with self- administration declared WUAsIndia State, and financing Clear Strong legal Mixed, half hearted Medium banks, farmers framework, (irrigation agency lacked involved later rehabilitation enthusiasm) Conflict with old subsidies, one sided institutions contracts other instruments ignored State, financing Unclear, only by Strong legal Mixed, half hearted Weak to mediumPakistan Banks, opposition implication framework, but from irrigation contradictory, one agency and rural elite, sided agreements, landless ignored arrangements for social mobilization State, Financing Clear Legal Framework, Mixed, half hearted MediumSri Lanka Banks, Farmers, social mobilization, NGOs rehabilitation subsidies State, Financing Clear Social Mobilization, Enthusiastic agency HighTurkey Banks, Irrigation Joint Management, served as the reform Agency, Local Legal Framework champion, competition Leadership (later), mutual amongst regions accountability triggered quick turnover of schemes
Concluding Remarks (I)World can produce more food and can ensure that it is used moreefficiently and equitably (Godfray, et. al., 2010)South Asia, NENA and SSA needs special attention to enhance foodsecurity• here is a critical link between Food security and irrigated Tagriculture, and more so in case of developing countries• nhancing water productivity in irrigated agriculture in Asia, and Esupplemental irrigation in SSA and NENA can help reduce foodinsecurity
Improving Irrigated Agriculture• To reduce conveyance losses, huge infrastructure projects have been implemented, but these tend to ignore the “soft” side of the equation• It is not that water users are not interested in enhancing WP, they do it when it makes sense under their conditions. We need to understand their rationality-> need for appropriate innovations that fit their reality• Water pricing remains and will remain a political issue and therefore can not be used as an effective tool to enhance WP under current circumstances in many countries-> Role for experimental economics to design, test and learn from smart incentives• Water reforms have generally been designed half heartedly in response to donor pressures, without much deep thinking behind and thus targeted lower tiers of irrigation systems more-> Focus on reforming water bureaucracies as well• “…it is not the nominal implementation of the reform that matters, but rather it is the creation of new management institutions that offer water managers (and users) monetary incentives that lead to water savings” (Wang, et. al., 2005)-> Rethink reforms design principles….do not just transfer the management and cost burden to farmers, give them voice and authority in decision making• Address concerns related to transparency, accountability, and inclusiveness of reforms
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