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Reimaging the future

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Presentation at HCDI (Human Centred Design Institute) at Brunel London University. March 19, 2014. …

Presentation at HCDI (Human Centred Design Institute) at Brunel London University. March 19, 2014.
http://hcdi.brunel.ac.uk/seminardetails.aspx?sid=40

How we saw the future in late 80's and we see it today.

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  • 1. reimaging the future
  • 2. 1994 2006 (unstopable force) 1996 • Promotron • Webtron 1998 2002 2010 2008 IE Business School Professor who am i? 2000 TuCupon.com / SuDescuento.com 2003 Diario Marca 2002 MobileSpear 2004 Mobile Dreams Factory TIEMPO 1994 TICKETRON Venezuela @betobetico 2011 IE Business School Academic Director A book
  • 3. “The medium is the message” Marshall McLuhan Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man 1964
  • 4. What  happened   to  the  future?
  • 5. “The art of prophecy is very difficult - especially with respect to the future.” Mark Twain
  • 6. VS
  • 7. How  Hollywood   showed  us  the  future   20  years  ago?
  • 8. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood
  • 9. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood Video Conference User Profiling
  • 10. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood Wireless Computer with no screen and printer. TV as the center of the screens. A printer could be in 2015. But 3 printers in a house?
  • 11. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood 2 ties? Not a fasionable today.
  • 12. How  Apple  showed  us   the  future  20  years   ago?
  • 13. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple
  • 14. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple Portable Device Touchscreen w/ video camera
  • 15. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple Internet Videoconference Online collaboration
  • 16. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple Pen drive or diskettes Wireless printing
  • 17. We  wanted  jet  packs  and   flying  cars,  instead    we  got   140  characters.
  • 18. Socialism The Old vs. New The New Socialism: Global Collectivist Society Is Coming Online By Kevin Kelly! http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/17-06/nep_newsocialism?currentPage=all
  • 19. “In the past you were what you owned. Now you are what you share” Charles Leadbeater We Think
  • 20. Authority centralized among elite officials. The Old Socialism Power distributed among ad hoc participants. The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  • 21. Limited resources dispensed by the state The Old Socialism Unlimited, free cloud computing The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  • 22. Forced labor in government factories The Old Socialism Volunteer group work 
 a-la-Wikipedia The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  • 23. Property owned in common The Old Socialism Sharing protected by 
 Creative Commons The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  • 24. Government-controlled Information The Old Socialism Real-time twitter and 
 RSS feeds The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  • 25. Harsh penalties for criticizing leaders The Old Socialism Passionate opinions on the Huffington Post The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  • 26. TODAY
  • 27. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 28. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 29. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 30. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 31. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 32. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 33. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 34. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 35. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 36. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  • 37. Media  Channels  have  evolved
  • 38. We  watch  TV   on  Hulu  or  Youtube
  • 39. We  read  newspaper   in  our  mobile  phone  or  Tablet
  • 40. http://www.slideshare.net/benhamin/digital-planning-presentation-to-the-apg-presentation Media  Channels  have  evolved
  • 41. We’re  always  connected
  • 42. http://www.slideshare.net/benhamin/digital-planning-presentation-to-the-apg-presentation We’re  always  connected
  • 43. http://muemergingmedia.weebly.com/what-is-emerging-media.html What is Emerging Media?
  • 44. Emerging media is the evolution of utilising technology to share information in new and innovative ways. http://muemergingmedia.weebly.com/what-is-emerging-media.html What is Emerging Media?
  • 45. Gartner’s Hype Cycle
  • 46. Gartner’s Hype Cycle
  • 47. Reimaging the future Powered by new devices + connectivity + UI + Design Where we are now
  • 48. First Generation of Re-Imagination - After 125 Years, Landlines Were Surpassed by Mobiles in 2002 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 GlobalInstalledBase(MMs) Fixed Telephone Lines Mobile Subscriptions Global Fixed Telephone Lines vs. Mobile Subscriptions, 1994 - 2009 Source: International Telecommunications Union. 2002: Inflection Point Mobiles > Landlines 2009 4.7B Mobile Subscribers 2006 Landlines Peaked at 1.3B 30 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 49. First Generation of Re-Imagination – After 244 Years, Encyclopedia Britannica is Going Out of Print in 2012 0 50 100 150 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 AnnualHardCopySales(000) Encyclopedia Britannica Hard Copy Sales, 1990 – 2011 1990 – Sales Peaked at 120K/year 1993 – Microsoft Introduced Encarta Encyclopedia for PC @ $99 2001 – Wikipedia Founded, Today* Wikipedia Has 470MM Monthly Unique Users 2008 – Microsoft Shut Down Encarta 2012 – Encyclopedia Britannica Announced End of Print Editions Note: *as of 4/12, per comScore global data. Source: Kellog School of Management, Shane Greenstein and Michelle Devereux, “The Crisis at Encyclopedia Britannica.” 31 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 50. First Generation of Re-Imagination – After 305 Years,* Newspaper Ad Revenue Was Surpassed by Internet in 2010 U.S. Newspaper (Print) Advertising vs. Internet Advertising Spending, 1995 - 2010 Note: *America’s first newspaper ad appeared in 1704 in a Boston local newspaper, per AdAge. Internet advertising includes online newspaper advertising. Source: Print newspaper ad spending per Newspaper Association of America (NAA); Internet ad spending per Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). $ $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 U.S.AdvertisingSpend($MM) Newspaper (Print) Internet Newspaper Trendline (2006-2010) Internet Trendline (2006-2010) 32 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 51. Re-Imagination of Computing Devices THEN (Desktops / Notebooks) NOW (Tablets / Smartphones) 33 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 52. Re-Imagination of Connectivity THEN NOW 34 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 53. Re-Imagination of Life Stories THEN Biographies / Item Exhibitions For Famous People or Loved Ones NOW (Facebook Timeline) Broad Personalized Media Discovery Feed / Automatically Created / Widely Accessible 36 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 54. Re-Imagination of Government Subsidies THEN Gather in Town / Wait in Line to Receive Subsidies NOW 200MM+ Farmers in India Receive Government Subsidies Via Mobile Devices* Note: There are 90MM Kisan credit card users and 118MM job card users, both of which do not require bank accounts but utilize mobile phones as identity verification / payment confirmation, per Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India. 79 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 55. Re-Imagination of News + Information Flow THEN Delayed / Dedicated Reporters + Cameramen / Regional or National Reach NOW (Twitter) Real-Time / Citizen Reporting via Mobile Devices / Global Reach 37 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 56. Re-Imagination of Note Taking THEN Pencil + Notepad NOW (Evernote) Always Synced / Multi-Device / Picture + Audio Enabled / Searchable 38 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 57. Re-Imagination of Drawing THEN Dedicated Canvas / Paint Supplies / Studios / Limited Distribution NOW (Paper by Fiftythree ) Reusable Canvas (Screen) / Creating Art Anywhere Anytime / Digitally Enhanced Creation Tools / Instant Sharing 39 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 58. Re-Imagination of Photography THEN Dedicated Camera / Manually Transfer Digital Files / Develop Films NOW (Instagr.am / Camera+ / Hipstamatic ) Always With You Camera (Smartphone) / Instant Digital Effects / Share / Sync / Discover 40 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 59. Re-Imagination of Diaries THEN Hand-Written / Drawn NOW (Path) One-Tap to Add Entry / Multimedia / Location-Aware / Share / Search 41 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 60. Re-Imagination of Scrapbooking / Aspiration THEN Paper / Scissors / Glue NOW (Pinterest) One-Click to Pin / Share / Follow / Always Accessible 42 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 61. Re-Imagination of Magazines THEN Piles of Print Copies NOW (Flipboard) More Content / Always Up-To-Date / Personalized / Access Everywhere / Interactive (Video + Audio) / Share 43 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 62. Re-Imagination of Books THEN NOW (Amazon Kindle / Apple iBooks) 44 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 63. THEN Buy Albums + CDs in Stores / Playback via Dedicated Players NOW (Spotify ) Discovery of Music Through Friends + Experts / Instant On-Demand Streaming on Internet- Enabled Devices Re-Imagination of Music 45 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 64. THEN Tape Recorder / Hard to Edit / Share NOW (SoundCloud) Record / Edit / Upload / Playback Anywhere / Anytime / On Any Device / Playlist sharing / Discovery Re-Imagination of Sound 46 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 65. Re-Imagination of Video THEN Physical Retail / Rental Stores NOW (YouTube / Netflix ) On-Demand / Instant Streaming / Accessible Everywhere 48 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 66. Re-Imagination of Video Creation / Production THEN Dedicated Set / Camera / Lighting / Editing Equipment NOW (SocialCam / Viddy / GoPro ) Live Digital Effects / Wearable Recording Device / Real-Time Upload / Discovery 49 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 67. THEN Lean Back / Lean Forward NOW (Chill ) Curl Up – Visual Layout / Social Discovery / Distribution / Interaction Re-Imagination of Home Entertainment 51 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 68. THEN Linear Programming / Pre-Set Channels / Little Control Over Content NOW (YouTube Channels / Bleacher Team Stream ) On Demand Personalized Content on Big Screen Re-Imagination of TV 52 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 69. Re-Imagination of Communication THEN Dedicated Devices / Limited Function & Range / Intrusive NOW (Voxer ) Push-To-Talk / Voice Message / Picture / Text / Location / Group Chat 53 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 70. Re-Imagination of Navigation + Live Traffic Info THEN Physical Copies of Map in Car / TV, Radio Reporting of Traffic Info NOW (Waze) User-Generated Digital Map / Live Crowd-Sourced Traffic Data 54 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 71. Re-Imagination of Sports Info THEN Professional Commentators / Reporters / Limited Coverage & Reach NOW (Bleacher Report) Anyone Can Be a Contributor / Opinion-Oriented Analysis / Multimedia / Social & Mobile Enabled 55 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 72. Re-Imagination of Home Improvement THEN Magazines / Cable TV Channels / Limited Interaction With Consumers NOW (Houzz / One Kings Lane ) Communication Platform for Designers & Consumers / Share / Discover & Click-And-Buy 56 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 73. Re-Imagination of Calling a Cab THEN Long Lines During Rush Hours / Rain / Some Areas May Not Have Taxis Roaming on Streets NOW (Uber) One-Tap Taxi Call / Location-Aware / Electronic Payment 57 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 74. Re-Imagination of Cars THEN Gasoline / Diesel Powered Internal Combustion Engine With Exhaust NOW (Hybrid / Electric Cars) Plug-in Electrical Powertrain / Regenerative Break / Solar Panel Roof / Little-to-Zero Emission 58 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 75. Re-Imagination of Yellow Pages THEN Big Heavy Printed Business Listings / No Reviews / No Easy Search Feature NOW (Yelp ) User Reviews / Pictures / Recommendations / Location-Aware / Easily Searchable 59 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 76. Re-Imagination of Coupons + Local Services THEN Non-Personalized / Smaller Discounts / Easily Lost or Forgotten NOW (Groupon ) Personalized / Location-Aware / Instant Deals / Group-buying Discount 60 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 77. Re-Imagination of Getting Food Quickly THEN Permanent Store Locations NOW (Kogi Food Truck ) ~100K Twitter Followers / Real-Time Location Updates 61 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 78. Re-Imagination of Cash Registers THEN Big + Odd Looking Machines / Receipt Printers Cash Drawers NOW (Square) Simple + Elegant Tablet + Square Reader / Email Receipts / Touch Signing 62 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 79. Re-Imagination of Window Shopping THEN NOW (One Kings Lane / Fab) Click & Buy 63 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 80. Re-Imagination of Marketplaces THEN Tent + Pickup Truck @ Street Fairs NOW (Etsy) Integrated Platform For Listings / Advertising / Payment / Inventory Management 64 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 81. Re-Imagination of Manufacturing THEN Mass Production of High-Volume Standardized Items NOW (Zazzle / Shapeways) Customized / Personalized Design / 3D Printing Process 65 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 82. Re-Imagination of Instant Gratification / Personal Services... 66 THEN Mass Production of High-Volume Standardized Items NOW (Zaarly / TaskRabbit / Fiverr) One Click & Delivered to You 66 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 83. Re-Imagination of Idea Building / Funding THEN Flyers / Loudspeakers / Dinners / Checks NOW (KickStarter) Online / Social Distribution / Real-Time Progress 67 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 84. Re-Imagination of Personal Borrowing / Lending THEN Borrowers – Paper Application / Lengthy Approval Process / High Interest Rates Investors – Little Access For Retail Investors / No Customization Based on Risk Tolerance NOW (Lending Club ) Borrowers – Online Application / Funded in Days / Lower Interest Rates Investors – Easy Customization / Diversification / Better Returns 68 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 85. Re-Imagination of Business Collaboration THEN Meetings / Whiteboards / Teleconferences NOW (Salesforce.com / Yammer / Jive ) Online Working Groups / Data Sharing / Instant Messages 69 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 86. Re-Imagination of Recruiting / Hiring THEN Job Fairs / Campus Recruiting Events / Paper Resumes NOW (LinkedIn) Online Resumes / Social Relevancy For Recruiters / Searchable Skill Sets / Endorsements / Recommendations 70 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 87. Re-Imagination of Focus Groups THEN Fixed Time / Location / Small Group / No Real-Time Feedback NOW (Affectiva) Real-Time Video Emotion Detection + Analysis / Effortless Participation / Data Capture / ‘Moodometer’ 71 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 88. Re-Imagination of Data THEN Store Everything Because We Can Do It Inexpensively SOON Data Obesity / Data Quality Issues How To Find a Needle in a Haystack? 72Source: Mike Abbot, KPCB. Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 89. Re-Imagination of Signatures THEN Scan / Fax / Mail to Return Signature Page NOW (DocuSign) Electronic Documents / Secure Audit Trail / Instant E-Signature 73 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 90. Re-Imagination of Healthcare Access THEN Call to Make Appointments / Days or Weeks to See Doctors NOW (ZocDoc / Teladoc) On-Demand Access to Doctors in Minutes or Same Day / In Person or Via Phone Video Call 74 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 91. Re-Imagination of Learning From learning by listening to learning by doing Education and learning will become as much fun as videogames. And we call it ‘full body learning.’ - Bing Gordon Partner, KPCB THEN NOW 75 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 92. THEN Buttons / Joysticks / D-pads / Wires NOW (Xbox Kinect) Camera-Based Gestures / Voice Control Re-Imagination of Engagement 76 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 93. Re-Imagination of Education THEN Classrooms / Lectures / Reading Materials NOW (Codecademy / Coursera / Khan Academy ) Interactive / Online / Accessible by Anyone Anywhere Anytime 77 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 94. Re-Imagination of Rewards / Satisfaction THEN NOW (Klout / FourSquare / Zynga ) 78 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 95. THEN Caveman Drawings NOW Instagr.am Re-Imagination of Communication 80 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 96. Re-imagination of Crime Awareness THEN Warning Signs / Community Reports NOW (SFPD / CrimeMapping) Centralized Database / Customized Crime Alerts / Mobile Viewing 81 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 97. Re-Imagination of Thermostats THEN On/Off Switch + Temperature Setting NOW (Nest) Wi-Fi Enabled / Auto-Learning / Auto-Sensing / Remote Control / Energy Efficient 82 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 98. Re-Imagination of Pet Care THEN Flyers on Lamp Posts for Missing Pets NOW Internet-Enabled / GPS Tracking Pet Collars 83 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 99. Re-Imagination of Feeds... ;) THEN NOW (Facebook News Feed / Ticker / Twitter Feed) 84 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  • 100. I think you got the point!
  • 101. Almost everything has been re-imagined.
  • 102. “A revolution doesn’t happen when a society adopts new tools. It happens when society adopts new behaviours...” Clay Shirky Author, Consultant, Proffessor at NYU Us Now (Film)
  • 103. The future will be in your hands!
  • 104. @betobetico http://www.linkedin.com/in/abenbunan alberto benbunan alberto@benbunan.com Thanks!