Reimaging the future

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Presentation at HCDI (Human Centred Design Institute) at Brunel London University. March 19, 2014.
http://hcdi.brunel.ac.uk/seminardetails.aspx?sid=40

How we saw the future in late 80's and we see it today.

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Reimaging the future

  1. 1. reimaging the future
  2. 2. 1994 2006 (unstopable force) 1996 • Promotron • Webtron 1998 2002 2010 2008 IE Business School Professor who am i? 2000 TuCupon.com / SuDescuento.com 2003 Diario Marca 2002 MobileSpear 2004 Mobile Dreams Factory TIEMPO 1994 TICKETRON Venezuela @betobetico 2011 IE Business School Academic Director A book
  3. 3. “The medium is the message” Marshall McLuhan Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man 1964
  4. 4. What  happened   to  the  future?
  5. 5. “The art of prophecy is very difficult - especially with respect to the future.” Mark Twain
  6. 6. VS
  7. 7. How  Hollywood   showed  us  the  future   20  years  ago?
  8. 8. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood
  9. 9. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood Video Conference User Profiling
  10. 10. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood Wireless Computer with no screen and printer. TV as the center of the screens. A printer could be in 2015. But 3 printers in a house?
  11. 11. The future 
20+ years ago, by Hollywood 2 ties? Not a fasionable today.
  12. 12. How  Apple  showed  us   the  future  20  years   ago?
  13. 13. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple
  14. 14. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple Portable Device Touchscreen w/ video camera
  15. 15. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple Internet Videoconference Online collaboration
  16. 16. The future 
20+ years ago, by Apple Pen drive or diskettes Wireless printing
  17. 17. We  wanted  jet  packs  and   flying  cars,  instead    we  got   140  characters.
  18. 18. Socialism The Old vs. New The New Socialism: Global Collectivist Society Is Coming Online By Kevin Kelly! http://www.wired.com/culture/culturereviews/magazine/17-06/nep_newsocialism?currentPage=all
  19. 19. “In the past you were what you owned. Now you are what you share” Charles Leadbeater We Think
  20. 20. Authority centralized among elite officials. The Old Socialism Power distributed among ad hoc participants. The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  21. 21. Limited resources dispensed by the state The Old Socialism Unlimited, free cloud computing The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  22. 22. Forced labor in government factories The Old Socialism Volunteer group work 
 a-la-Wikipedia The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  23. 23. Property owned in common The Old Socialism Sharing protected by 
 Creative Commons The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  24. 24. Government-controlled Information The Old Socialism Real-time twitter and 
 RSS feeds The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  25. 25. Harsh penalties for criticizing leaders The Old Socialism Passionate opinions on the Huffington Post The New Socialism The Old vs. New Socialism
  26. 26. TODAY
  27. 27. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  28. 28. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  29. 29. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  30. 30. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  31. 31. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  32. 32. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  33. 33. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  34. 34. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  35. 35. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  36. 36. Source: Business Insider. The Future of Digital: 2013.
  37. 37. Media  Channels  have  evolved
  38. 38. We  watch  TV   on  Hulu  or  Youtube
  39. 39. We  read  newspaper   in  our  mobile  phone  or  Tablet
  40. 40. http://www.slideshare.net/benhamin/digital-planning-presentation-to-the-apg-presentation Media  Channels  have  evolved
  41. 41. We’re  always  connected
  42. 42. http://www.slideshare.net/benhamin/digital-planning-presentation-to-the-apg-presentation We’re  always  connected
  43. 43. http://muemergingmedia.weebly.com/what-is-emerging-media.html What is Emerging Media?
  44. 44. Emerging media is the evolution of utilising technology to share information in new and innovative ways. http://muemergingmedia.weebly.com/what-is-emerging-media.html What is Emerging Media?
  45. 45. Gartner’s Hype Cycle
  46. 46. Gartner’s Hype Cycle
  47. 47. Reimaging the future Powered by new devices + connectivity + UI + Design Where we are now
  48. 48. First Generation of Re-Imagination - After 125 Years, Landlines Were Surpassed by Mobiles in 2002 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 GlobalInstalledBase(MMs) Fixed Telephone Lines Mobile Subscriptions Global Fixed Telephone Lines vs. Mobile Subscriptions, 1994 - 2009 Source: International Telecommunications Union. 2002: Inflection Point Mobiles > Landlines 2009 4.7B Mobile Subscribers 2006 Landlines Peaked at 1.3B 30 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  49. 49. First Generation of Re-Imagination – After 244 Years, Encyclopedia Britannica is Going Out of Print in 2012 0 50 100 150 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 AnnualHardCopySales(000) Encyclopedia Britannica Hard Copy Sales, 1990 – 2011 1990 – Sales Peaked at 120K/year 1993 – Microsoft Introduced Encarta Encyclopedia for PC @ $99 2001 – Wikipedia Founded, Today* Wikipedia Has 470MM Monthly Unique Users 2008 – Microsoft Shut Down Encarta 2012 – Encyclopedia Britannica Announced End of Print Editions Note: *as of 4/12, per comScore global data. Source: Kellog School of Management, Shane Greenstein and Michelle Devereux, “The Crisis at Encyclopedia Britannica.” 31 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  50. 50. First Generation of Re-Imagination – After 305 Years,* Newspaper Ad Revenue Was Surpassed by Internet in 2010 U.S. Newspaper (Print) Advertising vs. Internet Advertising Spending, 1995 - 2010 Note: *America’s first newspaper ad appeared in 1704 in a Boston local newspaper, per AdAge. Internet advertising includes online newspaper advertising. Source: Print newspaper ad spending per Newspaper Association of America (NAA); Internet ad spending per Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB). $ $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 U.S.AdvertisingSpend($MM) Newspaper (Print) Internet Newspaper Trendline (2006-2010) Internet Trendline (2006-2010) 32 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  51. 51. Re-Imagination of Computing Devices THEN (Desktops / Notebooks) NOW (Tablets / Smartphones) 33 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  52. 52. Re-Imagination of Connectivity THEN NOW 34 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  53. 53. Re-Imagination of Life Stories THEN Biographies / Item Exhibitions For Famous People or Loved Ones NOW (Facebook Timeline) Broad Personalized Media Discovery Feed / Automatically Created / Widely Accessible 36 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  54. 54. Re-Imagination of Government Subsidies THEN Gather in Town / Wait in Line to Receive Subsidies NOW 200MM+ Farmers in India Receive Government Subsidies Via Mobile Devices* Note: There are 90MM Kisan credit card users and 118MM job card users, both of which do not require bank accounts but utilize mobile phones as identity verification / payment confirmation, per Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India. 79 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  55. 55. Re-Imagination of News + Information Flow THEN Delayed / Dedicated Reporters + Cameramen / Regional or National Reach NOW (Twitter) Real-Time / Citizen Reporting via Mobile Devices / Global Reach 37 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  56. 56. Re-Imagination of Note Taking THEN Pencil + Notepad NOW (Evernote) Always Synced / Multi-Device / Picture + Audio Enabled / Searchable 38 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  57. 57. Re-Imagination of Drawing THEN Dedicated Canvas / Paint Supplies / Studios / Limited Distribution NOW (Paper by Fiftythree ) Reusable Canvas (Screen) / Creating Art Anywhere Anytime / Digitally Enhanced Creation Tools / Instant Sharing 39 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  58. 58. Re-Imagination of Photography THEN Dedicated Camera / Manually Transfer Digital Files / Develop Films NOW (Instagr.am / Camera+ / Hipstamatic ) Always With You Camera (Smartphone) / Instant Digital Effects / Share / Sync / Discover 40 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  59. 59. Re-Imagination of Diaries THEN Hand-Written / Drawn NOW (Path) One-Tap to Add Entry / Multimedia / Location-Aware / Share / Search 41 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  60. 60. Re-Imagination of Scrapbooking / Aspiration THEN Paper / Scissors / Glue NOW (Pinterest) One-Click to Pin / Share / Follow / Always Accessible 42 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  61. 61. Re-Imagination of Magazines THEN Piles of Print Copies NOW (Flipboard) More Content / Always Up-To-Date / Personalized / Access Everywhere / Interactive (Video + Audio) / Share 43 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  62. 62. Re-Imagination of Books THEN NOW (Amazon Kindle / Apple iBooks) 44 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  63. 63. THEN Buy Albums + CDs in Stores / Playback via Dedicated Players NOW (Spotify ) Discovery of Music Through Friends + Experts / Instant On-Demand Streaming on Internet- Enabled Devices Re-Imagination of Music 45 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  64. 64. THEN Tape Recorder / Hard to Edit / Share NOW (SoundCloud) Record / Edit / Upload / Playback Anywhere / Anytime / On Any Device / Playlist sharing / Discovery Re-Imagination of Sound 46 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  65. 65. Re-Imagination of Video THEN Physical Retail / Rental Stores NOW (YouTube / Netflix ) On-Demand / Instant Streaming / Accessible Everywhere 48 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  66. 66. Re-Imagination of Video Creation / Production THEN Dedicated Set / Camera / Lighting / Editing Equipment NOW (SocialCam / Viddy / GoPro ) Live Digital Effects / Wearable Recording Device / Real-Time Upload / Discovery 49 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  67. 67. THEN Lean Back / Lean Forward NOW (Chill ) Curl Up – Visual Layout / Social Discovery / Distribution / Interaction Re-Imagination of Home Entertainment 51 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  68. 68. THEN Linear Programming / Pre-Set Channels / Little Control Over Content NOW (YouTube Channels / Bleacher Team Stream ) On Demand Personalized Content on Big Screen Re-Imagination of TV 52 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  69. 69. Re-Imagination of Communication THEN Dedicated Devices / Limited Function & Range / Intrusive NOW (Voxer ) Push-To-Talk / Voice Message / Picture / Text / Location / Group Chat 53 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  70. 70. Re-Imagination of Navigation + Live Traffic Info THEN Physical Copies of Map in Car / TV, Radio Reporting of Traffic Info NOW (Waze) User-Generated Digital Map / Live Crowd-Sourced Traffic Data 54 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  71. 71. Re-Imagination of Sports Info THEN Professional Commentators / Reporters / Limited Coverage & Reach NOW (Bleacher Report) Anyone Can Be a Contributor / Opinion-Oriented Analysis / Multimedia / Social & Mobile Enabled 55 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  72. 72. Re-Imagination of Home Improvement THEN Magazines / Cable TV Channels / Limited Interaction With Consumers NOW (Houzz / One Kings Lane ) Communication Platform for Designers & Consumers / Share / Discover & Click-And-Buy 56 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  73. 73. Re-Imagination of Calling a Cab THEN Long Lines During Rush Hours / Rain / Some Areas May Not Have Taxis Roaming on Streets NOW (Uber) One-Tap Taxi Call / Location-Aware / Electronic Payment 57 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  74. 74. Re-Imagination of Cars THEN Gasoline / Diesel Powered Internal Combustion Engine With Exhaust NOW (Hybrid / Electric Cars) Plug-in Electrical Powertrain / Regenerative Break / Solar Panel Roof / Little-to-Zero Emission 58 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  75. 75. Re-Imagination of Yellow Pages THEN Big Heavy Printed Business Listings / No Reviews / No Easy Search Feature NOW (Yelp ) User Reviews / Pictures / Recommendations / Location-Aware / Easily Searchable 59 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  76. 76. Re-Imagination of Coupons + Local Services THEN Non-Personalized / Smaller Discounts / Easily Lost or Forgotten NOW (Groupon ) Personalized / Location-Aware / Instant Deals / Group-buying Discount 60 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  77. 77. Re-Imagination of Getting Food Quickly THEN Permanent Store Locations NOW (Kogi Food Truck ) ~100K Twitter Followers / Real-Time Location Updates 61 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  78. 78. Re-Imagination of Cash Registers THEN Big + Odd Looking Machines / Receipt Printers Cash Drawers NOW (Square) Simple + Elegant Tablet + Square Reader / Email Receipts / Touch Signing 62 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  79. 79. Re-Imagination of Window Shopping THEN NOW (One Kings Lane / Fab) Click & Buy 63 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  80. 80. Re-Imagination of Marketplaces THEN Tent + Pickup Truck @ Street Fairs NOW (Etsy) Integrated Platform For Listings / Advertising / Payment / Inventory Management 64 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  81. 81. Re-Imagination of Manufacturing THEN Mass Production of High-Volume Standardized Items NOW (Zazzle / Shapeways) Customized / Personalized Design / 3D Printing Process 65 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  82. 82. Re-Imagination of Instant Gratification / Personal Services... 66 THEN Mass Production of High-Volume Standardized Items NOW (Zaarly / TaskRabbit / Fiverr) One Click & Delivered to You 66 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  83. 83. Re-Imagination of Idea Building / Funding THEN Flyers / Loudspeakers / Dinners / Checks NOW (KickStarter) Online / Social Distribution / Real-Time Progress 67 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  84. 84. Re-Imagination of Personal Borrowing / Lending THEN Borrowers – Paper Application / Lengthy Approval Process / High Interest Rates Investors – Little Access For Retail Investors / No Customization Based on Risk Tolerance NOW (Lending Club ) Borrowers – Online Application / Funded in Days / Lower Interest Rates Investors – Easy Customization / Diversification / Better Returns 68 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  85. 85. Re-Imagination of Business Collaboration THEN Meetings / Whiteboards / Teleconferences NOW (Salesforce.com / Yammer / Jive ) Online Working Groups / Data Sharing / Instant Messages 69 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  86. 86. Re-Imagination of Recruiting / Hiring THEN Job Fairs / Campus Recruiting Events / Paper Resumes NOW (LinkedIn) Online Resumes / Social Relevancy For Recruiters / Searchable Skill Sets / Endorsements / Recommendations 70 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  87. 87. Re-Imagination of Focus Groups THEN Fixed Time / Location / Small Group / No Real-Time Feedback NOW (Affectiva) Real-Time Video Emotion Detection + Analysis / Effortless Participation / Data Capture / ‘Moodometer’ 71 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  88. 88. Re-Imagination of Data THEN Store Everything Because We Can Do It Inexpensively SOON Data Obesity / Data Quality Issues How To Find a Needle in a Haystack? 72Source: Mike Abbot, KPCB. Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  89. 89. Re-Imagination of Signatures THEN Scan / Fax / Mail to Return Signature Page NOW (DocuSign) Electronic Documents / Secure Audit Trail / Instant E-Signature 73 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  90. 90. Re-Imagination of Healthcare Access THEN Call to Make Appointments / Days or Weeks to See Doctors NOW (ZocDoc / Teladoc) On-Demand Access to Doctors in Minutes or Same Day / In Person or Via Phone Video Call 74 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  91. 91. Re-Imagination of Learning From learning by listening to learning by doing Education and learning will become as much fun as videogames. And we call it ‘full body learning.’ - Bing Gordon Partner, KPCB THEN NOW 75 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  92. 92. THEN Buttons / Joysticks / D-pads / Wires NOW (Xbox Kinect) Camera-Based Gestures / Voice Control Re-Imagination of Engagement 76 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  93. 93. Re-Imagination of Education THEN Classrooms / Lectures / Reading Materials NOW (Codecademy / Coursera / Khan Academy ) Interactive / Online / Accessible by Anyone Anywhere Anytime 77 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  94. 94. Re-Imagination of Rewards / Satisfaction THEN NOW (Klout / FourSquare / Zynga ) 78 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  95. 95. THEN Caveman Drawings NOW Instagr.am Re-Imagination of Communication 80 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  96. 96. Re-imagination of Crime Awareness THEN Warning Signs / Community Reports NOW (SFPD / CrimeMapping) Centralized Database / Customized Crime Alerts / Mobile Viewing 81 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  97. 97. Re-Imagination of Thermostats THEN On/Off Switch + Temperature Setting NOW (Nest) Wi-Fi Enabled / Auto-Learning / Auto-Sensing / Remote Control / Energy Efficient 82 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  98. 98. Re-Imagination of Pet Care THEN Flyers on Lamp Posts for Missing Pets NOW Internet-Enabled / GPS Tracking Pet Collars 83 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  99. 99. Re-Imagination of Feeds... ;) THEN NOW (Facebook News Feed / Ticker / Twitter Feed) 84 Source: Mary Meeker’s Presentation from KPCB at D10 CONFERENCE May 30th, 2012
  100. 100. I think you got the point!
  101. 101. Almost everything has been re-imagined.
  102. 102. “A revolution doesn’t happen when a society adopts new tools. It happens when society adopts new behaviours...” Clay Shirky Author, Consultant, Proffessor at NYU Us Now (Film)
  103. 103. The future will be in your hands!
  104. 104. @betobetico http://www.linkedin.com/in/abenbunan alberto benbunan alberto@benbunan.com Thanks!

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