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The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
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The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
The Arab Spring
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The Arab Spring
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The Arab Spring

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  • 1. The Arab Spring Beth Hill-Skinner Out of the Box International™ Fall 2011 Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 2. Note to reader-Disclaimer• The slides within this presentation are not intended to be “stand alone” material.• They are supplemental to the lecture/course that was given at the Annenberg Center in Fall 2011.• Some of the content was removed to avert misuse or misunderstanding in that it could be taken out of context.• However, the content provided reflects the overall intent of the course, to provide the participants with a greater understanding of the unfolding events nominally referred to as the “Arab Spring”. Please contact me should you have further questions or if you would like to schedule a presentation on this topic for your group. I hope that you find this material helpful, Beth Hill-Skinner Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 3. Arab Spring• Islam is the world’s fastest growing religion at this time.• It is easily approaching the number of Christian adherents and holds the number two position in terms of religious identification.• 1.5 billion Muslims in the world today.• 57 countries• Represent a multiplicity of cultures. MAP Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 4. Arab Spring• The Arab Spring is not intrinsically a Muslim movement as much as a populist movement within the Arab States.• A wave of populist protests and demonstrations.• The term itself has currency in the media of other countries. But in those countries where the movement is taking place, the word that is used is “revolution” or “thawra” in Arabic.• The plural of revolutions being “thawrat”. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 5. Arab Spring• Generally speaking, the use of ‘spring’ is attributed to the revolutionary upheavals in Europe in 1848.• The period was captured through the phrase “springtime of nations”.• The outcome took time. For example, in France free elections led to Napoleon’s rise for nearly two decades, a disastrous war and consequential bloody massacres.• France underwent the organic process toward democracy with missteps and deadly repercussions.• France did become a functioning democratic republic but it took almost a quarter-century. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 6. Arab Spring• The Prague Spring of 1968 took thirty-two years to materials in a democratic state.• In Lebanon, the Beirut Spring in the early part of this century (on-going in many respects) against Syrian control resulted in the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri. By whom remains in contention.Nurturing The Beirut Spring, By Jim Hoagland,Thursday, March 10, 2005; Page A21“But the key judgment made by the Bush administration in the spring of 2002 -- that the political status quo could not and should not be maintained in the Middle East -- is being proved prescient and worth pursuing through this Beirut Spring.” Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 7. Arab Spring• Today Syria is largely back in control.• The U.S. has not supported the movement in Lebanon in part because of its stance toward Israel.• But also because of the tensions between the U.S. and Syria (Iran). To tackle such a dysfunctional international relational is undesirable at this time. (More on Syria in coming weeks)• The “Axis of evil” on 1/29/2002 speech hardened the positions and set back diplomatic efforts. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 8. Arab Spring• Words like uprising “intifada”, awakening “sahwa”, and even renaissance “nahda” are also used.• The word “spring” most closely mirrors that of an awakening.• To be sure, those in power consider it to be a revolt that must be put down.Is it a revolution or an awakening? Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 9. Arab Spring• Terms like revolution, awaking, uprising, and overthrow of regimes are similar. But are also distinctive in their political use.• Color revolutions are typically associated with civil (at times non-violent) resistance.• Words like civil unrest accompany these movements and they are known worldwide.• The protest is against corrupt governments with a called for democratic reforms.• These movements are not always successful. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 10. Arab Spring• Green Revolution-Iran (2009)• Yellow Revolution-Phillipines (1986)• Orange Revolution-Ukraine (2004)• Blue Revolution-Kuwait (2005)Derivations include:• Bulldozer Revolution-Serbia (2000) [Yugoslavia]• Cedar Revolution-Lebanon (2005)• Rose Revolution-Georgia (2003)• Tulip Revolution-Kyrgyzstan (2005)• Jasmine Revolution-Tunisia (2011)• Lotus Revolution-Egypt (2011) Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 11. Arab Spring• Clearly the Arab Spring is a populist movement, a demand, for self-determination, economic reform, and more representative governance.• This era in the Arab world is also the shedding of the vestiges of colonialism, the pawn game of the Cold War and the global imbalance of their states on the world stage.• The people are demanding their rights in ways that resemble the democratic aspirations of those who came to the United States. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 12. Arab Spring• The popular uprisings have signaled a definite shift in geo-political power.• This shift is altering the balance of power throughout the world which is a source of diplomatic and economic tensions.• Turkey, Israel, and Iran are the regional non-Arab countries most affected by the Arab Spring. Your thoughts on the role of Turkey, Israel, and Iran? Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 13. Arab Spring• The recent uprisings that began with the self- immolation of a Tunisian fruit seller captured on a camera cell phone.• His story is one of struggle and shouted, “How do you expect me to make a living” as he doused himself with gasoline and set himself aflame with one match.• Mohamed Bouazizi unknowingly spoke for thousands of Tunisians who were ready to protest the unjust conditions in Tunisia. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 14. Arab Spring• The conditions for these movements are fueled through a before unknown method of communication and momentum: FACEBOOK, TWITTER, and the INTERNET.• Social media has become a key instrument in the Arab Spring.• Social unrest has found social media. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 15. Arab Spring• As instrumental as social media is, the willingness of the people to protest in large numbers, or in the case of Libya fight in a largely civilian army have been the deciding factors.• Another significant change in the Arab self- determination game has been the evolution of Al- Jazeera. The role of mainstream media has also been significant. (Egypt and western coverage)• Coverage of the self-immolation and the resulting protests galvanized the youth who were able to inspire and organize through these modern methods.• More on the role of the youth next week. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 16. Arab Spring• Many factors have led up to the current period that has been called the “Arab Spring”.• Some will assert that the Iraq War (3/2003 -?) and the quasi-democratic government is responsible.• Some have stated that President Obama’s speech in Cairo 6/04/09 is a key pre-condition.• Others look at the youth bulge and the economic conditions in the Arab States.• The internet as a channel for education/perspective has also been cited.• And the role of social media cannot be overlooked. (BA and M tried to shut it down) Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 17. Arab SpringArab Spring Arab AwakeningArab Winter Arab Uprisings Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 18. Arab Spring• The governments in each of these countries differs.• For each country, there is a complex set of conditions that defies a singular category for the protests.• What can be known is: This part of the world is emerging from external pressures that have thwarted progress toward more democratic rule. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 19. Arab Spring-why now?• To date, three regimes have been toppled. Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya.• Yet…Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Bahrain, Algeria, Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania, and the Israeli border have all been sites of uprising and protests.• Syria remains an unfolding story. More on this in coming weeks. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 20. Arab Spring-why now?Those who are in the streets say, “This is not a political revolution, this is not a religious revolution. This is a people’s revolution. This is about Freedom.”Muhbarak’s apparatus was most frightened by the chant in Tahrir Square, “The people demand the regime to step down.”As people who are predominantly Muslim, their human rights were the driving force. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 21. Arab Spring-why now?• Democracy in its truest form is organic.• Democracy does not need capitalism, but instead is the raw expression of human aspiration for dignity.• Such dignity is not outside the form of Islam.• Islam has held to the respect for human dignity at points in history.• The Islamist perversion of the religion is a reaction to the corrupt governments and backward social mobility throughout the Arab world. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 22. Arab Spring-why now?• Democracy is not incompatible with Islam or the Arab culture.• However, democracy does not have the requirement to be present itself solely in the “America” way.• The United States is a unique story that is unrealistic to export wholesale.• The Arab peoples have been caught in a conundrum for decades. At this time, there is a window to push forward in the direction of democracy. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 23. Arab Spring-cultural dissonance• The polarization between the “Arab street” and western interpretation of Arab revolution has been evidenced in reporting.• This is reflective of cultural dissonance between cultures. This is a predictable condition and exists as a global phenomenon. ie: U.S. & China or U.S. and Russia• Example- In the tense weeks between the September II attacks and the first US bombing raids over Afghanistan, and continuing until the fall of the Taliban, commentators raised serious concerns about what the Wall Street Journal called the "irrational Arab street.” Asef Bayat MIDDLE EAST REPORT SPRING 03 P.10 Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 24. Arab Spring-cultural dissonanceThe "Arab street," and by extension, the "Muslim street," have become code words that immediately invoke a reified and essentially" abnormal" mind in the West…"Muslim actions" are described almost exclusively in terms of "mobs, riots, revolts," adding to the logical conclusion that "Western standards for measuring public opinion simply dont apply" in the Arab world. At any time, American readers are reminded, protesting Arab masses may shed their unassuming appearance and "suddenly turn into a mob, powerful enough to sweep a way governments"-notably the "moderate Arab governments who remain loyal allies of the US."Asef Bayat MIDDLE EAST REPORT SPRING 03 P.10 Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 25. Arab Spring-why now?• Socio-economic• Socio-political• Socio-identity• Authoritarian control• Economic suppression• Totalitarian impediments• Not about the United States, but nationalist pride. But would U.S. throw support the direction of the people? Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 26. Arab Spring• The “Arab spring” governments, heretofore, have relied on state television which can be controlled.• When the states cut off the signal to Al Jazeera, the slack was picked up through mobile phones, and social media sites and all VOI protocol.• Social media, is used by the youth more so than by the older population. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 27. Arab Spring• Al Jazeera, as an Arab television station has earned enormous credibility with the people.• The coverage on the part of Al Jazeera has signaled a complete evolution in the sociological use of media as a means of “democracy”.• Democracy in terms of information, communication, and speech.• Al Jazeera oftentimes re-purposed what they found on Social Media and spread it to a wider audience.• Arab governments have a conflicted view on Al Jazeera. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 28. Arab Spring• Once the environment changed in Tunis or Cairo, through the media means, the spirit of revolution spread.• People to people communication filled in the gaps for the poor who lacked television or internet or cellular phones.• The revolutionary spirit ignited in the hearts and minds of the people, which overwhelmed the regimes of Tunisia and Egypt.• Libya was also the site of the spreading demand for reform and rejection of totalitarian governance. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 29. Arab Spring• What is different about these revolutions is that they are ignited by a broad base of support rather than through the figure of a charismatic leader.• The Arab world is experiencing a YOUTH BULGE!• Social media allowed for non-discriminatory expression. It was an equal forum for revolt in each of the countries of the Arab Spring.• To give expression to feelings of suppression, to feelings of anger, …it spreads like wildfire when people realize they are not alone.• Facebook and Twitter are FREE! Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 30. Arab Spring• What ever the role of SMS and the importance of these tools, the real CHANGE occurred in the streets.• The protests in the street determined the outcome in Tunisia and Egypt.• In Libya, the rag-tag army had determined the outcome of the Qadhaffi regime.• The courage of the people is fundamentally the most important aspect of the Arab Spring. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 31. Arab Spring• The limits of social media are evident when people are willing to protest in the street.• The attempts by the regimes to stymie the movement was met by people who were imprisoned, tortured, and even killed.• These visible signs within a society evidence a resolve to overthrow a repressive regime.• Revolutionary engagement with a regime takes different forms and involves its own timeline.• The courage of the youth and those they inspire to protest is admirable and palpable. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 32. Arab SpringProperty of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 33. Arab Spring• At issues are state regimes, typically run by autocratic family systems, where self-protection is the highest priority.• In many cases, the availability of hydrocarbon economies have paved the way for intractable government structures.• Social mores evolve around the powerful who preserve their roles through corruption and predation.• Protests are historically met with severe reprisals.• Absence of public trust. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 34. Arab Spring• Thus far, not ideological.• The younger generation has not been motivated by ideology; either religious or political.• The anti-United States motivation has not been a galvanizing force.• The demand for human rights and dignity has been a constant in each country.• The young people have a sense of pride in what they have accomplished which is translating to a new sense of pride in their country.• A generational shift…again the YOUTH BULGE! Handouts: See data/charts. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 35. Arab Spring-contributing factorsEconomic repressionNo Accountability CorruptionThe looming “son” PredationGovernments that extort its own people Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 36. Arab Spring-Tunisia– Independence from France 1956– Zine El Abidine Ben Ali assumed presidency after coup in 1987.– His speeches referred to democracy but the people were denied freedom of speech, economic progress, social mobility, and were afraid of being picked up by Ben Ali’s police.– Criticism of Ben Ali and/or family not tolerated.– Internet censorship and journalistic reporting were regulated and limited.– Corruption was endemic of the Ben Ali family. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 37. Arab Spring-Tunisia• GDP: $100 billion (2010 est.) (ranked 70th in world)• Presidential elections, but corrupt.• Labor force: – Tourism: 7% – agriculture: 18.3% – industry: 31.9% – services: 49.8% (2009 est.)• Legal system: mixed legal system of civil law, based on the French civil code, and Islamic law; some judicial review of legislative acts in the Supreme Court in joint session Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 38. Arab Spring-Tunisia• High unemployment• Rising food prices (Key throughout region)• Unrelenting corruption (Some MNC’s wouldn’t do business)• Political repression• No freedom of speech• Government censorship throughout country• Pervasive contempt for Ben Ali family. This crossed all social structures• Despair within intelligentsia as well as rural poor Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 39. Arab Spring-Tunisia• Mohammed Bouazizi December 17/18, 2010• January 4, 2011 Bouazizi died• Only 26 years old, his mother stated that her son set himself on fire because of humiliation. (and despair).• The defiance in processing his coffin through the town to Bouazizi’s gravesite began a movement. This procession was sent out by cell phone.• Sparked a contagion throughout the Arab World. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 40. Arab Spring-Tunisia• Facebook was one of the most heavily relied upon tools.• “Bouazizi” become a Twitter hashmark. Then the city, then the country as the movement spread across the world.• January 6, rapper arrested, only to enrage the youth who spread his message more deliberately.• Lawyers in Tunis involved.• Police use real bullets against protesters. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 41. Arab Spring-TunisiaJanuary 14, 2011 Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 42. Arab Spring-Tunisia• Revolution on January 14, 2011 Protests subdued since March 2011• President Ben Ali and PM Ghannouchi were ousted.• Ben Ali is given sanctuary in Saudi Arabia.• Elections to a Constituent Assembly on October 23, 2011• Number of people killed during the protests: 223. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 43. Arab Spring-Tunisia• What to do after a successful revolution?• The difficulties are most challenging.• Elections are scheduled for October 23, 2011.• The entire economic system must be overhauled.• The poor are still poor.• But the sense of intransigency is no longer the mood of the country.• The anachronistic societal system has been reversed. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 44. Arab Spring-after Tunisia• Algeria: December 2010-April 2011• Lebanon: January 2011-?• Jordan: January 20110?• Mauritania: January 2011-subdued May 2011• Sudan: January 2011-subdued May 2011• Oman: January 2011-May 2011• Saudi Arabia: January 2011-June 2011 Aging autocrats Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 45. Countries of the Middle East Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 46. Arab Spring-Israel/Pal/US• In the Middle East, an exacerbating tension remains the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.• Jerusalem-under 1947 Partition Plan to be an international city.• East Jerusalem-part of Jerusalem captured by Jordan in ‘48 Arab-Israeli war. At which time Jerusalem was divided in to two parts.• Jews forced to leave E. Arabs forced to leave W.• Annexed by Israel in ‘67 war. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 47. Arab Spring-Israel/Pal/US• The Arab world remains concerned about many issues. Oftentimes, the subject of international law dominates the peace process.• UNSCR 242 (11/67) –Israel must leave occupied E. Jerusalem.• 1980 Knesset passed Israeli law-all of Jerusalem is now legally part of Israel.• UNSCR 478 declared this “null and void” and Israel in violation of IL.• About 27 sq miles (not an accurate calculation). Arab business district.• Palestinians claim it for their cap. Although Ramallah is, in effect, the central city for the Palestinians. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 48. Arab Spring-Israel/Pal/US• Another problem is the matter of settlements.• Over 300,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank. If we assume the Israeli settler population of the West Bank remained constant at just 300,000 through today, it would make up approximately 3.9% of Israel’s total population (7.7 million).• According to an article from fall 2010, another 200,00 Israelis live in East Jerusalem, which Israel gained control of in 1967’s Six Day War. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 49. Arab Spring-Israel/Pal/US• 1967 resolutions that have been contravened. In the Arab eyes, it delegitimizes Israel.• The days of globalization are affecting the view of Israel in the midst of the Arab world.• Yet, Israel will ask, “Who are we to negotiate with?”• Fatah/Hamas is a difficult piece.• Hamas appears to be moving toward a more moderate stance.• Fatah seeks increased political power. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 50. Arab Spring-Israel/Pal/US• Hamas-actor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.• Hamas is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement, a Palestinian organization committed to eliminating Israel and replacing it with an Islamic state.• Considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the West for its suicide attacks on Israel, it is popular among Palestinians for its network of schools, clinics and civic services, as well as its armed resistance to Israeli military occupation.• The group is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Egyptian-based organization that has advocated Islamic government in the Arab world for 80 years.• Hamass capture of an Israeli soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit.on June 29 marked a new tactic in the groups strategy for fighting Israeli military occupation. (Prisoner sway for 400 Pal women/children). of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Property Box International
  • 51. Arab Spring-Israel/Pal/US• FATAH-actor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.• Fatah is Arabic for, literally, "opening," although the word is closer in spirit to "victory" or "conquest.“• Fatah is also an acronym in reverse for harakat tahrir filastin, or Palestine Liberation Movement.• Fatah is a Palestinian political party founded in the late 1950s by a group of Palestinian exiles working in the countries of the Arab Gulf.• Fatahs most recognizable founder, and eventually its autocratic leader, was Yasser Arafat, who gave up a lucrative job as an engineer in Kuwait. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 52. Arab SpringNext week-Egypt Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 53. Arab Spring-Egypt• Egypt – a key leader in the Arab world.• Made peace with Israel.• Strong ties with the United States• Prestigious culture.• Esteemed by intellectuals for its historical emphasis on learning.• Egyptian revolution sent a strong message to the Arab rulers.• The fall of Muhbarak’s regime was a game- changer. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 54. Arab Spring-Egypt• Sparked by beating death of Khaled Said at the hands of police.• Cause has been said to be for posting a video on the Internet.• Police state for 40 odd years.• The young people in the Arab world have fed off of the courage of each other.• The regime was not ready for the force of the anger.• CHANGE is what the youth want. The intent has not been to seek rule.• Elections are what they want to see. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 55. Arab Spring-Egypt• Youth bulge-60% of population are under 30• Economies are changing in ME.• Need soft skills for this new market• Not taught in colleges in ME, not part of culture• Market driven economies are emerging in ME.• Creative thinking, project managers,• Saudi Arabia: 40% of male college grads are unemployed.• Lack of social mobility is a leading driver of the revolution in Egypt. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 56. Arab Spring-Egypt• In Egypt, food is a highly political issue. The world’s biggest wheat importer, where one in five people lives on less than $1 a day, provides subsidized bread for 14.2 million people.• Bread and cereal prices rose 2.42% in Algeria between November 2009 to 2010. In Tunisia, whose popular uprising which toppled the country’s leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, has become a rallying cry for the Arab world’s protesters, bread and cereal prices rose only 3.5% during 2010. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 57. Arab Spring-Egypt• Egypt is unique in the Arab world with its numbers of educated -- state employees, students, professionals and the intelligentsia.• However, the absence of jobs, particularly during the global recession led to a re-evaluation of how Egypt must contend with the realities of modernity.• Globalized recession indicates the undeniable inter-connectedness of states. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 58. Arab Spring-Egypt• Police-security apparatus groomed under Muhbarak regime.• Secret police-also created under previous government.• Military has been a professional core of the state.• Thrust in to new responsibilities in the post- revolution era.• Ill prepared for democratic transition.• Military training does not dispose those in charge of mediation, collaboration, or… Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 59. Arab Spring-Egypt• Military’s role is to protect the country.• Professional class trained in large part by U.S. counterparts.• Highly respected in Egypt.• Communication going on with U.S. military mentors/trainers throughout revolution.• Saw role as force for stability.• Could not support President Muhbarak when it because obvious that the educated, the influential began to support the movement. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 60. Arab Spring-Egypt• Those in power see U.S. in a realistic sense. – Enabling to the regime. – Democratic influence in the world. – Self interest is highest value. – Allied with Israel. – New black president who seems to be supportive to the Arab world. – Able to throw support to youth & protesters. – Want good relationship Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 61. Arab Spring-Egypt• Clashes between Salafist Muslims and Coptic Christians. (Christians are 10% of Egypt’s 80 million)• Indeed, it goes back to the Arab invasion in A.D. 641 which first brought Islam to Egypt.• Copts lived with dhimmi status, members of a protected minority but without full rights.• Historians and modern writers disagree as to the conditions of the dhimmi system.• The dhimmi system was a tax, but also included a system of political exclusion, economic exploitation, religious persecution, and social degradation. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 62. Arab Spring-Egypt• In the aftermath of the Muhbarak regime, many of the pressure-points that we held in check through the tools of brutality, imprisonment, torture, and economic imbalance have been removed.• Egypt is undergoing the reality of movement toward a more representative state…and all the challenges that accompany such political alteration. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 63. Arab Spring-Egypt• Egypt is unique in the Arab world with its substantial educated middle class -- state employees, students, professionals and the intelligentsia.• However, the absence of jobs in recent time, particularly during the global recession led to a re-evaluation of how Egypt must contend with the realities of modernity.• Globalized recession indicates the undeniable inter-connectedness of states. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 64. Arab Spring-Egypt-timing• Food prices• Fragmentation• Generation that is not focused on anti-colonialism• Previous activism included “leftist” movements, Islamist motivations, and anti-Israeli protests.• Other previous activism arose out of the class stratification: peasants, urban, trade, and state elite.• Al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood do not represent a high percentage of the youth who are focused on jobs, future of their lives. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 65. Arab Spring• Youth bulge-60% of population are under 30• Economies are changing in ME.• Need soft skills for this new market• Not taught in colleges in ME, not part of culture• Market driven economies are emerging in ME.• Creative thinking, project managers,• Saudi Arabia: 40% of male college grads are unemployed. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 66. Arab Spring-Syria• Began on January 26, 2011 as a protest.• Hasan Ali Akleh from Al-Hasakah poured gasoline on himself and set himself on fire.• March 2011 calls for end of Assad regime.• Calls for end to emergency law. (1963-present)• As we have previously addressed, the importance of social media and cellular telephones.• Satellite TV is rapidly spreading in the Arab world, bringing alternative information to break the hold of state television.• Skyline of Damascus, filled with satellite dishes Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 67. Arab Spring-Syria• The Assad regime is extensive. The family has people in every sector of the nation.• The brutal crack down is the will of the family /system to maintain power.• Use of snipers, tanks, and torture• The story of Egypt and Libya have hardened the Assad regime.• Over 4,000+ (precise numbers unknown due to limited access of reporters in Syria) people have been killed. Many more imprisoned, tortured, or have fled the state.• Reporters are tightly controlled. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 68. Arab Spring-Syria• Has been under “emergency law” since 1963.• Justification for the decades long suspension of the constitutional rights of the Syrians has included the “war with Israel”.• However, abject power and brutality defined Hafez al-Assad (1970-2000) regime.• Bashar al-Assad has moved in the direction of his father’s brutality. The family retains extensive control.• Bashar’s younger brother Maher al-Assad commands the armys Fourth Armored Division.• His brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, is deputy chief of staff of the army.• Family is said to fear that failure to take a hard line on protesters could embolden them, bringing much larger crowds into the streets. (Influence from Iran)• Shabbiha-the Assad’s secret police has been lethal. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 69. Arab Spring-Syria• The actual power of Bashar al-Assad is questionable. He may have been co-opted by his father’s “machine”.• The Alawite sect represents less than 15% of the population yet, cronyism for the Assad family + is source of resentments/attacks.• The majority Sunni must work within the Shia’ control.• The Kurds are a group that create unrest.• There is a small minority of Christians (10%).• Violence is contained through repression and control of Assad regime. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 70. Arab Spring-Syria• Stalwart ally of the Palestinians• Russia has a base in Syria (Tartus)• Chavez is friend• Hezbollah• Iran• Wage freezes• National media is a issue• Russia and China will not turn on Assad• Firewall against U.S. presence throughout ME• Syria wants to put fear back in• United Nations concern for numbers of dead Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 71. Arab Spring-Syria• The Arab League has shown impressive public resolve against Syria.• The Arab Leagues sanctions committee confirmed it would freeze the assets of 19 top Syrian officials and Assad associates, and ban them from entering other Arab countries.• The number of flights to Syria would be halved.• The League warned that more measures could be imposed if Syria did not stop the crackdown against protesters.• This marks a shift in the previous practice of Arab solidarity. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 72. Arab Spring-Yemen• Sparked by the state removal of some 30 families in a tribal area from their land then given to friend of President Salah. (January 2011).• Yemeni forces are split.• Backward culture, Islamic practices are ancient.• Failing state due to lack of water and corrupt governance.• Yemen could be the first nation to completely run out of water in a few years, a prospect that does not bode well for its young population of 24 million that is expected to double in 20 years, or anyone worried about the rising influence (and ability to get bombs on planes) of an al Qaeda branch in one of the Middle Easts poorest nations. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 73. Arab Spring-Yemen• Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in testimony to Congress in February 2010, "The failure to establish local water corporations in several governorates that historically have not received much support or social services from the central government has raised fear that a resurgent al Qaeda may seek refuge there.”• Yemen is a fragile state. Its future is teetering on fragile and failing. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 74. Arab Spring-Yemen• Part of the problem is qat, an addictive plant like chewed by about 75% of men in Yemen that takes a whole lot of water to grow. In places where vineyards used to be, farmers now are growing the more lucrative qat, which uses five times the amount of water as grapes but can be harvested and sold relatively quickly after its planted. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 75. Arab Spring-Bahrain• Pearl Revolution• Began Feb. 17, 2011.• “Pearl” for divers of pearlsin the region.• Began as a peacefulmovement.• Primarily directed toward more representation for Shi’a population. (70% of the population)• Second aim, reform of the current government is also sought. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 76. Arab Spring-Bahrain• Unwritten social contract that binds the Gulf Cooperation Councils six sheikhdoms of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.• Social contract: the ruling monarchy offers free housing, health care, education, food subsidies, and a government job for life. In return, the people defer to a system of tribal autocracy that gives little or no political representation to the masses.• Examples: In Kuwait, a man can get a $250,000 interest-free loan (repaid in tiny installments over a lifetime) to buy a house; in Qatar, someone diagnosed with cancer could be sent along with a family member to London for medical treatment – and the entire tab is picked up by the state; in Abu Dhabi, if a student gets accepted to Harvard Medical School, the relevant ministry may offer the student a scholarship with full living expenses. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 77. Arab Spring-Bahrain• Bahrain has strong ties with Saudi Arabia.• The Saudi / Iranian polarity figures in to its response to the Bahraini request for assistance.• WikiLeaks-• "He revealed that Bahrain already has contacts with Israel at the intelligence/security level (i.e. with Mossad) and indicated that Bahrain will be willing to move forward in other areas," Monroe wrote, referring to Israels spy agency.• The cable also indicated King Hamad had ordered his public information minister to stop referring to Israel as the "Zionist entity" or "enemy" in official statements, Haaretz quoted the cable as saying.• But the king reportedly baulked at the idea of establishing trade ties with Israel, saying it would have to wait until the establishment of a PalestinianHill-Skinner@Out of the Property of Beth state, it said. Box International
  • 78. Arab Spring-Bahrain• Protests ended when government violence cleared the plaza.• Hospitals were scenes of violence and doctors, nurses have reported threats against their lives as well as threats of jail time.• The kingdom is reportedly poorly managed and there was great pressure to quell the protests to restore the economic sector.• Recent report confirmed human rights violations . Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 79. Arab Spring-Turkey• Is considered a model for the countries undergoing the Arab Spring.• In foreign trade and economy, Turkey is reaping the results of the democratic practices.• The practices implemented in political and social sectors during the 2000s have evolved in to a more advanced democracy in the Middle East.• Turkeys diplomatic initiative proves in the international arena is an indication of its position in the world. Has become the region’s power broker.• In good relations with Iran. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International
  • 80. Arab Spring• Many factors contributed to the timing of the Arab Spring 2010/2011.• What is certain is that nation states in the Middle East and in the Arab world are contending with a rising youth population.• The aging autocrats are faced with choices to move towards reform or risk populist revolutions.• While the story continues, the face of the Middle East continues to change.• For more information, contact Beth Hill-Skinner at info@out ofboxintl.com and (310) 722-5488. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the Box International

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