Bernard Hickey's presentation on the Credit Crunch to Bayleys on Feb 14

Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16 What the Credit Crunch means for New Zealand and where the silver linings are

September 15 – the day the neutron bomb went off and what almost happened
How the global banking system imploded
Why the debt mountain is so large
Why deleveraging is so powerful
The New Zealand connection
We’re not immune, but our world won’t end
What might happen next
Insolvency, nationalisation, deleveraging
The silver linings to this big cloud
Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

US Federal Reserve Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke

Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16 US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson

Lehman CEO Dick Fuld AIG’s Martin Sullivan

Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16 Rod Petricevic and Mark Bryers

Recession lasting well into 2010
Global recession driven by de-leveraging
Unemployment rising past 8% by end 2010
Median NZ house price to fall 30% from end 2007 peak by end 2010
Prices won’t return to 2007 levels until 2018
Consumption must drop NZ$1.5 bln/month
Non-essential retail and importers to suffer
The boom of the “roaring noughties” is over

Trade restrictions
Financial nationalism
Rising long term interest rates
Stresses in the China-US nexus
Eurozone political and monetary instability
Very weak demand for exports
Strong demand for infrastructure
Weaker borrowing, consuming economy
Stronger savings and investing economy
Strong focus on efficiency, cost reduction

Cheaper borrowing for homeowners
OCR to hit 2%, variable mortgage in low 5s
Lower fuel and food prices…
But not that much cheaper
Lower NZ dollar
Could got to 40 USc
Bargain hunters paradise
Cars, houses, farms, clothes, anything
Housing becomes more affordable
40% single income to pay median mortgage

Flexible currencies and interest rates
Helicopter Ben and his money men
Fiscal stimuli the world over
We won’t repeat the mistakes of Smoot Hawley and shut down global trade
This was the recession we needed to have
Focus on infrastructure investment
Boost productivity and real incomes
Political stability in the wealthy west

Bernard Hickey's presentation on the Credit Crunch to Bayleys on Feb 14

by Bernard Hickey on Feb 26, 2009

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

2 Embeds 43

Statistics

Bernard Hickey’s presentation on the Credit Crunch to Bayleys on Feb 14 — Presentation Transcript

http://www.interest.co.nz	42
http://www.slideshare.net	1