Briefing intro Technology roadmapping

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Slides from workshop conduced 16th and 17th of september 2009

Slides from workshop conduced 16th and 17th of september 2009

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  • 1. TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING Det er ikke vores opgave at forudsige fremtiden men at være vel-forberedte på den. Pericles
  • 2. Agenda - Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)  The motivation for roadmapping and roadmaps – the ”Why?”  Case Story: Gatehouse and roadmapping the SDR markets and technologies  The roadmapping process – the ”How?”  Fast track roadmap – the ”What’s next?”
  • 3. The road is not the map!!  I the late 15.th century the cartographs Gerard Mercator and Abraham Ortelius made a number of maps with California – correctly – depicted as a peninsula.  In 1602, Sebastian Vizcaino sailed up the California coast coast, and Father Antonio de la Ascension wrote a journal of the voyage. Claiming that California was separated from the American continent by the “Mediterranean Sea of California.”  For more than 100 years California was depicted on maps as an island even long after Father Kino established its penisularity about 1705  Finally in 1747, Ferdinand VII of Spain issued a royal edict declaring California as part of the mainland Ask yourself: How precise are your maps? Kort af Francisco de Ulloa der besejlede bugten udfor Californien i 1539
  • 4. GPS metaphor Retrospective Prospective  A roadmap is a forward directed and qualified tool for supporting decision making – like a GPS for a driver  More than one route are found as the context and preconditions change  A roadmap could be the best qualified estimate on a safe or quick route to your destination Ask yourself: Where are you looking for directions and guidance? Are these sources trustworthy?
  • 5. “Roadmapping” is the process that pp g p produces a number of interrelated roadmaps which can be used in the ongoing making and communication of decisions on technology, business and strategy…
  • 6. The occasion…  The current crisis calls for more secure choices - saying “no” to the right things at the right time...  The choice of technologies are no- no more a metier for experts alone – it’s coordinated with business and organizational matters...  A huge democratization of “Technology roadmapping” is going on – moving from an expert driven innovation to a more open employee driven model of innovation...  Getting business value from our innovation processes – superior p p knowledge and excellent skills are only half way there...  Complicated matter in knowledge intensive organizations
  • 7. Conclusions – just to map out where we are going going….  Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a mature process and supported by numerous tools and methods  TRM can give you tremendous insight AND outlook – both don’t go for both at the same time  Roadmapping is a continuous process – the roadmaps are the outcome or artifacts from this process  The roadmaps are hypothesis on the future markets, their demands, t h l d d technology options and possibilities – you can use ti d ibiliti them to reduce risk and combine them with scenarios to give these hypothesis dynamics and “life”  Use it to identify strategies and necessary activities  Roadmaps are superb tools for internal and external communication  Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts  A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward together as a group or organization  You can do it – in fact you are already doing it….
  • 8. Another roadmap most of us know… From Wikipedia
  • 9. Source: Statusrapport 2005 EPJ-Observatoriet
  • 10. NOWHERE Time Perspective  A view can never be from nowhere. It will always be from a now and a here The anagram on “nowhere” / "now, here" / “Erewhon” with reference to Samuel Butler (1835-1902) and Gilles Deleuze (1925-1995)
  • 11. Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)
  • 12. The beginning: [place]: Motorola [time]: Late 70’s  Technology Roadmapping – the process of producing roadmaps – where introduced in Motorola in the late 70’s  Through the 80’s the roadmapping process are integrated tightly as one of Motorola's g pp g p g g y most important control- and communication tools – both internally but just as much externally in relation to suppliers and markets/costumers  Motorola formulated the goals with their roadmaps: g p 1. Establish a cooperation tool which both development dept. and marketing could use 2. Be able to more qualified assumptions on future developments in technologies or markets 3. Be able to coordinate across a large and diverse organization and increase consistency 4. Identify ”gaps” – holes in the collective knowledge / product series / markets – more rapidly and more effectively p y y 5. To time and synchronize efforts towards new technologies and new markets ”A Roadmap is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field”, Brian Galvin CEO Motorola Ask yourself: How well does these goals from Motorola fit your own?
  • 13. Creativity Strategy, business Science fiction development, technology assesment assesment, market segmentation Brainstorming and validation…. Gaming Essays / foresights Trend analysis Scenario writing Technological Substitution Back model casting Bibliometric Stakeholder analysis mapping Technology Impact Delphi assessment matrix / SWOT Workshops GAP Panels / analysis Conferences advisory boards Expertise Interaction alignment
  • 14. ”A Roadmap for the Robotic and Human Exploration of Mars”, NASA 2004
  • 15. A roadmap we may know…
  • 16. http://www.isip.nhs.uk/roadmap/
  • 17. SDR Hype Cycle SCA ver 2.2 Remaining technology MM3xR limitations - AD/DA conversion JTRS Launch -Power consumption - Linear amplification PUSHING SIBILITY - Broadband antennas TECHNOLOGY - SW reload time ENVELOPE JTRS VIS SpeakEasy Re-organisation and Coalition Re-targeting waveform implementation p Euro-SDR Proto ? DSPs, FPGAs Early 1990’s 2000 2005 2010 2015 Technology Peak of Inflated Through of Slope of Plateau of Trigger gg p Expectations Dissillusionment Enlightenment g Productivity y MATURITY
  • 18. SDR Emerging Technology Roadmap Reference : Dr. Klaus Moessner, CCSR, University of Surrey, UK Ask yourself: How many roadmaps do you use or produce daily?
  • 19. Case: Gatehouse Technology Roadmapping of Software Defined Radio (SDR)
  • 20. About Gatehouse  Software that connects  Based on extensive experience within satellite  GateHouse was founded in 1992 by the current communications GateHouse has developed an CEO, CEO Michael Bondo Andersen During the last Andersen. Inmarsat BGAN Waveform for SDR decade GateHouse has risen to become a well- • The waveform is SCA compliant and has all the advantages from the BGAN system: know international player in the software • Global coverage development market for communication • High data rate transfer (up to 492 kbit/s) • L-Band systems. systems Contributory to this success are the • For land, maritime and aeronautical use BGAN Protocol Stack, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and the numerous consultancy service contracts for the Danish Army. Army  Now GateHouse employs about 80 highly skilled M.Sc. in engineering, business developers, sales and marketing specialists. Their geniuses are deployed in the solutions we make for our customers translating their requirements into "software that connects".  Today GateHouse operates within 5 business areas sharing the same dedication to suply mission critical solutions characterised by reliability and interoperability.  The business areas are: Satellite Communications Tracking, monitoring and control (TrMC) Coastal Surveillance Defence Software Defined Radio (SDR)
  • 21. The purpose of Technology Roadmapping at Gatehouse
  • 22. Scope lse af SDR teknolo Artefacts Roadmap for dardisation_v13052 mindmap Markeder roadmap ålgrupper iteration
  • 23. The value of TRM in the Gatehouse case • T h l Technology readiness di • A lot of research going l f h i •I t Internal communication of l i ti f within 2-3 years on SDR as an emerging technology and • Standardization • Standardization is not – consolidation of strategic important and imminent definitely – not a driver direction • A lot of new skills • No mainstream near- • Prioritization of 2 market required internally market implementa- segments tions ready • Identification of a number of • Different US and “critical levels” for SDR roll- outt European approach • Identification and mapping • SDR sets software of research clusters to development skills of follow most importance and is • Validation of software as a key parameter in the key competence and hereof competitive market a dramatic change in the space competitive landscape Assumptions Knowledge Value Before Now optained
  • 24. Organizing and managing the roadmapping process
  • 25. Cybernetics – the organization seen as a body or organism Size of organization? Is there a 6th sense? [S S ] [SENSE] Acquisition and processing of information [INTERPRETATION] [REACT] Develop common Strategic adaption understanding and specific tactical through shared actions beliefs
  • 26. The ability to share knowledge is key!
  • 27. Absorptive capacity As suggested by professor Harry Boer from CIP (AAU), Denmark
  • 28. The TRM framework Ask yourself: Can you point out where to seek the 5 information types in your organization? Adapted from: ”Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008
  • 29. A roadmap as a strategic lens on the world Ask yourself: What “lenses” provides you with outlook or perspectives on the surrounding world? Are they aligned? Are they shared?
  • 30. What can Roadmaps do for you?  Give one – or more likely: more – well supported hypothesis on the future markets, their demands, options and possibilities – hereby reducing risk  Identify the “hard” and “soft” facts necessary to capture future benefits and hard soft possibilities  Identify strategies and activities from where companies and industries can get access to new sources of knowledge – eg strategic partnerships common eg. partnerships, R&D areas  Roadmaps are superb tools in the internal and external communication: they invite to dialog and a roadmap is always stronger if it is challenged  Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts: don’t invest in new technologies if the roadmap for a targeted market doesn’t say that adoption g p g y p here is ready  A roadmap can create a alignment of knowledge which are crucial if we are to move forward after a common layout / architecture / business plan etc etc. Ask yourself: What would you like roadmapping to provide you? Where would it provide you with the most value?
  • 31. “How” - The Roadmapping Process
  • 32. Roadmapping is a learning process Identified risk urity of prediction ”Wild guesses” Informed estimates Reliable estimates with no or poor Insecu documentation Identified risk Time Increasing leaning value Ask yourself: How do you identify and eliminate risks?
  • 33. 5 main topics in roadmapping Experience Facts! Creativity Interaction Documentation • Prior experience • Not all knowledge • It’s about shaping • It’s a coope- • To communicate and knowledge in or opinions are a qualified ration between it must be the area must be based on facts scenario of the multiple p visualized present and t d but if they are: future in some f t i individuals and • To support the represented find it! local areas groups – collaboration of • This may • If not: find the • It demands that perhaps even stakeholders challenge the people able to we engage in other documentation articulate it ti l t thinking out-of- out of organizations i ti and our the-box organization • This may challenge our culture Ask yourself: Who or what would you use in your organization to cover each topic?
  • 34. Gatehouse case revisited: activities and structure Adopted from: “T-Plan: the fast start to Technology Roadmapping Planning your route to success”
  • 35. The roadmapping process seen iterative  The process begins with a very broad scope  Narrowing in short iterations  Early iterations are short (hours/days)  Later Iterations are longer (weeks) and perhaps even in parallel Figure adopted from Phaal & Müller: ”An architectural framework for roadmapping” 2008 Ask yourself: How good are you to run and facilitate processes?
  • 36. Outlined roadmap process per iteration As proposed in Phaal & Müller: ”An architectural framework for roadmapping” 2008 Ask yourself: Where would you think your process would be the most productive – ideation, divergence, convergence, synthesis?
  • 37. The TRM framework Ask yourself: Which Push / Pull-effects are the strongest in your context? Adapted from ”Technological Forecasting & Social Change” Phaal & Muller 2007
  • 38. The TRM framework  The Scenarios – the stories – the multiple instantiations of the roadmap  The important disruptive elements Ask yourself: In your case - which scenario would be the most powerful or effective as a communication vehicle?
  • 39. Learning points for the process:  Appoint a facilitator among the group  Agree on the time span for the roadmap • Keep the alignment of the time span for  Make a preliminary roadmap for the first as long as you can workshop • Give the group a starting point – even  Agree on the time span for the though you know it’s inaccurate and with roadmapping process errors • For each iteration • Use 3. party roadmaps (ask Mr Google 3 Mr. • For the whole process until first delivery but not as only source) (fx a report to a project review or kick-off)  Control your abstractions  Classify and group input in themes all the • Seek a limited number of abstraction time levels • Again: control the abstractions • Keep them well-balanced: don’t over- expose the bottom ones just because  Seek and qualify with “Facts and Figures” you can can… • Even though th contradict each other E th h they t di t h th • Keep it simple – very simple – in the first • Name your sources 2 iterations • Keep the abstraction levels in alignment  Maintain and keep the roadmap up-to- for the first 2 iterations date Ask yourself: The last time you facilitated a process - how did you do that? Are there any learning points from that you need to take into consideration?
  • 40. Critical factors for a successful TRM People | Organization The right team over time The right mix of competencies Processes Mature organization Sources for data Valid sources and information Maintain The right momentum data Managenble processes Maintaining the right Enough - for initiating, developing, level of abstraction but not to reviewing and integrating much... the TRM
  • 41. Conclusions – revisited  Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a mature process and supported by numerous tools and methods  TRM can give you tremendous insight AND outlook – both don’t go for both at the same time  Roadmapping is a continuous process – the roadmaps are the outcome or artifacts from this process  The roadmaps are hypothesis on the future markets, their demands, t h l d d technology options and possibilities – you can use ti d ibiliti them to reduce risk and combine them with scenarios to give these hypothesis dynamics and “life”  Use it to identify strategies and necessary activities  Roadmaps are superb tools for internal and external communication  Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts  A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward together as a group or organization  You can do it – in fact you are already doing it….
  • 42. What´s next? A suggested next step: fast track roadmapping
  • 43. What do you putt here?
  • 44. Fast track roadmapping 1. Sell the concept of TRM roadmapping • Get the key stakeholders identified and involved • Set the overall scope for the TRM process Preliminary activities 2. Initiating the TRM process – how to get started? • S t the TRM process core-team Set th t • Identify supporting resource-members 3. Define scope of the TRM p p process and roadmap p • Identify largest technology areas • Identify technology alternatives • Develop roadmaps Development activities D l t ti iti 4. Integrate or adopt TRM into existing processes • Align / adopt to whatever development or analysis process in-house y p • Make TRM communication package • Use resource-members as ambassadors 5. 5 Maintain the TRM-process on an everyday basis TRM process • Review and validate Follow-up / review activities • Find external review partners (costumers, suppliers, etc.)
  • 45. A-fast-track A f t t k TRM process – with reference to f ith f t framework k Ask yourself: Won’t that guy ever stop??? Adapted from: ”Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008
  • 46. Perspectives on Roadmapping
  • 47. Roadmapping as a platform for Open Innovation? Common activities Company specific activities
  • 48. Thank you… Bent Bilstrup | 72201614 | bent.bilstrup@teknologisk.dk
  • 49. Further reading  “An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy”, Robert Phaal, Gerrit Muller (Technological Forecasting & Social Change ( g (2008) )  ”Establish a creative environment for roadmapping of i-system methodology”, Tieju MA, Andrzej P. WIERZBICKI, Yoshiteru NAKAMORI  ”Evolution of roadmapping at Motorola”, Richey, pp g , y, James M., Grinnel, Mary (Research | Technology Management, march-april 2004)  “Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping”, R Phaal, CJP Farrukh and DR Probert  “Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping” Marie L. Garcia & Olin H. Bray