on the 2008 Election Red Meets Blue A Left to Right Perspective July 30, 2008

KELLEY ELLIS Beltway Brawlers on the Midway

HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR KEY VOTERS VEEPSTAKES CONGRESS BELLWETHER HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR KEY VOTERS VEEPSTAKES CONGRESS BELLWETHER At least they agree someone will win

HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR

KEY VOTERS

VEEPSTAKES

CONGRESS

BELLWETHER

HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR

KEY VOTERS

VEEPSTAKES

CONGRESS

BELLWETHER

HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR KEY VOTERS VEEPSTAKES CONGRESS BELLWETHER HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR KEY VOTERS VEEPSTAKES CONGRESS BELLWETHER At least they agree someone will win Or do they?

HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR

KEY VOTERS

VEEPSTAKES

CONGRESS

BELLWETHER

HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR

KEY VOTERS

VEEPSTAKES

CONGRESS

BELLWETHER

It’s not like there could be a tie - right?

Jim Ellis Provides election analysis for private clients through the PRIsm Information Network Former political advisor to the House Republican leadership Former consultant to the national GOP political arms Previously ran three national political action committees

Provides election analysis for private clients through the PRIsm Information Network

Former political advisor to the House Republican leadership

Former consultant to the national GOP political arms

Previously ran three national political action committees

1 2 States/114 EVs With Poll Margin 5% or Less

2000 - Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 271 GORE - 266

2004 - 3 rd Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 286 KERRY - 251

Merely changing 4 states from 2004 . . . Colorado, Iowa & New Mexico DEMS GAIN GOP GAIN New Hampshire 269-269

Remember Maine! (And Nebraska too!) Both states allocate electoral votes for statewide winner and by congressional district McCain is more likely to steal 1 vote from Maine, than Obama is from Nebraska

Both states allocate electoral votes for statewide winner and by congressional district

McCain is more likely to steal 1 vote from Maine, than Obama is from Nebraska

An election is coming. Universal peace is declared and the foxes have a sincere interest in prolonging the lives of the poultry. T.S. Eliot

John McCain Wins If…  he unites his conservative base  articulates a clear economic message  sells Obama plan as “pay more for less”  exploits Democrats’ weakness on energy issues  commands the national security agenda “ Sen. McCain will bring a time of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience and Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference,” Hillary Clinton from a March 2008 CNN appearance.

 he unites his conservative base

 articulates a clear economic message

 sells Obama plan as “pay more for less”

 exploits Democrats’ weakness on energy issues

 commands the national security agenda

“ Sen. McCain will bring a time of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience and Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference,” Hillary Clinton from a March 2008 CNN appearance.

Strength and Weakness “ Is the most likeable” Obama 58 McCain 23 “ Best understands the concerns of people like me” Obama 47 McCain 36 Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

“ Is the most likeable”

Obama 58 McCain 23

“ Best understands the concerns of people like me”

Obama 47 McCain 36

Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

Obama’s Strength ? “ Obama – favorable or unfavorable opinion?” Favorable 56 Unfavorable 32 “ McCain – favorable or unfavorable opinion?” Favorable 55 Unfavorable 32 Newsweek Poll – July 9-10; 1,037 likely voters

“ Obama – favorable or unfavorable opinion?”

Favorable 56 Unfavorable 32

“ McCain – favorable or unfavorable opinion?”

Favorable 55 Unfavorable 32

Newsweek Poll – July 9-10; 1,037 likely voters

Strength and Weakness “ Best able to handle the economy” Obama 44 McCain 37 “ Is closest to your views on so-called values issues” Obama 40 McCain 39 Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

“ Best able to handle the economy”

Obama 44 McCain 37

“ Is closest to your views on so-called values issues”

Obama 40 McCain 39

Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

Strength and Weakness “ Would best handle situation in Iraq” Obama 38 McCain 48 “ Would best protect US against terrorism” Obama 33 McCain 53 Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

“ Would best handle situation in Iraq”

Obama 38 McCain 48

“ Would best protect US against terrorism”

Obama 33 McCain 53

Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

Democrats Achilles’ Heel “ Expect McCain to mainly continue Bush policies” Agree 46 “ McCain is mainly independent of Bush” Agree 44 Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

“ Expect McCain to mainly continue Bush policies”

Agree 46

“ McCain is mainly independent of Bush”

Agree 44

Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters

McCain Wins if . . . Picks up NH and either MI or PA

Veepstakes The Safe Pick The Premature Pick The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick The Surprise Pick The Please, Please Don’t Pick

Congress “ How would you rate the way Congress is doing its job?” Excellent 2% Good 7% TOTAL 9% Fair 36% Poor 52% TOTAL 88% WORST NUMBERS OF ALL-TIME!!! Rasmussen Reports – July 1; 1,000 likely voters

“ How would you rate the way Congress is doing its job?”

Excellent 2%

Good 7% TOTAL 9%

Fair 36%

Poor 52% TOTAL 88%

WORST NUMBERS OF ALL-TIME!!!

Rasmussen Reports – July 1; 1,000 likely voters

The Reason for the Poor Ratings??? “ And some of the success of the surge is that the goodwill of the Iranians – they decided in Basra when fighting would end, they negotiated that cessation of hostilities – the Iranians.” Queen for a Day Nancy Pelosi; Speaker’s News Conference; 5/29/08 "I believe ... that this war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything…” Hapless Harry Reid; Breitbart.com News; 4/19/08

“ And some of the success of the surge is that the goodwill of the Iranians – they decided in Basra when fighting would end, they negotiated that cessation of hostilities – the Iranians.”

Queen for a Day Nancy Pelosi; Speaker’s News Conference; 5/29/08

"I believe ... that this war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything…”

Hapless Harry Reid; Breitbart.com News; 4/19/08

“ the only people less popular in America today than President Bush are O.J. Simpson, the MySpace mom who drove a girl to suicide and Congress.” -- Bennet Kelley Huffington Post (7/5/08) If I can run for 2,000 yards, running for Congress should be easy VOTE OJ FOR CONGRESS

“ the only people less popular in America today than President Bush are O.J. Simpson, the MySpace mom who drove a girl to suicide and Congress.”

-- Bennet Kelley Huffington Post (7/5/08)

Senate 2008 The GOP’s big problem – 23-12… … and they can’t do a thing about it Battleground: Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, Louisiana Virginia to go D; Rs must win Minnesota, Oregon, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska

The GOP’s big problem – 23-12…

… and they can’t do a thing about it

Battleground: Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, Louisiana

Virginia to go D; Rs must win Minnesota, Oregon, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska

House 2008 Current D 236 – R 199 (originally 233-202) 2008: Ds favored in 228 seats; Rs in 189 18 rated as toss-ups (9 from each party) Open seats favor Ds 28-7; 13 R vulnerables Ds have 14 seats that should be R Ds will retain control… … but by how much?

Current D 236 – R 199 (originally 233-202)

2008: Ds favored in 228 seats; Rs in 189

18 rated as toss-ups (9 from each party)

Open seats favor Ds 28-7; 13 R vulnerables

Ds have 14 seats that should be R

Ds will retain control…

… but by how much?

WARNING The following presentation may cause nausea or depression among Republicans, conservatives and all Americans other than Brie-eating, chardonnay-drinking, latte-sipping, French-speaking, Volvo-driving, New York Times reading, tax and spend elite liberals. Consult your doctor for details.

WARNING

The following presentation may cause nausea or depression among Republicans, conservatives and all Americans other than Brie-eating, chardonnay-drinking, latte-sipping, French-speaking, Volvo-driving, New York Times reading, tax and spend elite liberals. Consult your doctor for details.

Writer-Columnist-Blogger Bennet Kelley Award winning political columnist for The Huffington Post and The Santa Monica Daily Press Co-Author, “Big Bush Lies” ( 2004) Publisher, BushLies.net Politico Founder -- Internet Law Center Law & Lobbying Co-Founder and National Co-Chair -- Democratic National Committee’s Saxophone Club (1992-1998) Political analyst for radio, print and television media

Award winning political columnist for The Huffington Post and The Santa Monica Daily Press

Co-Author, “Big Bush Lies” ( 2004)

Publisher, BushLies.net

Founder -- Internet Law Center

Co-Founder and National Co-Chair -- Democratic National Committee’s Saxophone Club (1992-1998)

Political analyst for radio, print and television media

Merci beaucoup pour cette introduction gentille. Je m'arrêterai maintenant pour de trente seconde pour donner un dernier hasard à trouver à Jim ces armes de destruction massive. Thank you very much for that kind introduction I will now pause for thirty seconds to give Jim one last chance at finding those weapons of mass destruction.

2004 GOP 286 EVs +16 Dems 252 EVs -18

“ Safe States” 182 EVs in Play 140 - GOP 42 – Dem

Current Status with Leaners GOP States 157 - McCain 12 – Obama 102 – Tossup Dem States 210 - Obama 0 - McCain 17 – Tossup

Current Status with Leaners Magic Number 23 - Obama 98 - McCain

Option Play: 32 Ways to Win Florida Ohio + any other state Michigan + MO, IN, VA or CO Virginia + IN or MO Michigan & Nevada + MT or ND Michigan & No. Dakota + MT Virginia & Colorado + NV, MT or ND Indiana & Missouri + CO, MT, NV, ND Missouri & Colorado + MT, NV, ND Virginia, Nevada, North Dakota & Montana McCain – 15 options Must win Florida If he loses Ohio he must run the table on the remaining states

Florida

Ohio + any other state

Michigan + MO, IN, VA or CO

Virginia + IN or MO

Michigan & Nevada + MT or ND

Michigan & No. Dakota + MT

Virginia & Colorado + NV, MT or ND

Indiana & Missouri + CO, MT, NV, ND

Missouri & Colorado + MT, NV, ND

Virginia, Nevada, North Dakota & Montana

McCain – 15 options

Must win Florida

If he loses Ohio he must run the table on the remaining states

 Running for Change  Derailing the “Straight Talk Express”  Running Against John McBush  Expanding the Map  Keeping their base enthusiastic Democrats win by Under New Management

 Running for Change

 Derailing the “Straight Talk Express”

 Running Against John McBush

 Expanding the Map

 Keeping their base enthusiastic

Wrong Track: 78% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008 Bush Disapproval: 73% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008 Bush a Failure: 69% USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 18-20, 2008 Oppose the War: 68% CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June 26-29, 2008. Consumer Comfort Index: -43 ABC News June 30, 2008 Increase in Crude Oil: $107.87/pb Change in Deficit: $8.9 trillion John McCain voted with Bush 95% of the time

Wrong Track: 78% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008

Bush Disapproval: 73% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008

Bush a Failure: 69% USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 18-20, 2008

Oppose the War: 68% CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June 26-29, 2008.

Consumer Comfort Index: -43 ABC News June 30, 2008

Increase in Crude Oil: $107.87/pb

Change in Deficit: $8.9 trillion

John McCain voted with Bush 95% of the time

John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times “ The Confederate flag is offensive in many, many ways, as we all know. It is a symbol of racism and slavery.” Jan. 9, 2000 in South Carolina.

John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times

John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times “ Personally, I see the flag as a symbol of heritage.” (Three days later) “ The Confederate flag is offensive in many, many ways, as we all know. It is a symbol of racism and slavery.” Jan. 9, 2000 in South Carolina. “ Mr. McCain later acknowledged, ‘I feared that if I answered honestly I could not win the South Carolina primary, so I chose to compromise my principles.’” Nicholas Kristof, New York Times (same article)

John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times

“ Personally, I see the flag as a symbol of heritage.” (Three days later)

“ Straight Talk on Immigration” For several years, McCain has co-sponsored and supported comprehensive immigration reform legislation which included increased border security and a pathway to legal citizenship.

Potential for Landslide? The Slippery 7 : AK, IN, ND, NC, SC, SD, VA Safe Republican States Dems have not won ’64 (except Carter won NC and SC in ’76) Bush won by avg. 19.5% No appearances, no ads in fall 2004 Obama already airing ads in 6 of the states Avg. poll margin Obama -2.5% with IN, ND, MT and VA being tossups

The Slippery 7 : AK, IN, ND, NC, SC, SD, VA

Safe Republican States

Dems have not won ’64 (except Carter won NC and SC in ’76)

Bush won by avg. 19.5%

No appearances, no ads in fall 2004

Obama already airing ads in 6 of the states

Avg. poll margin Obama -2.5% with IN, ND, MT and VA being tossups

McCain’s “Doledroms” Is McCain “Dole II”? Source: Pew Research Center, USA Today/Gallop

Is McCain “Dole II”?

Internet Dominance Source: Nielson Net Ratings, Tom O”Keefe.com Pew Research Center When it comes to web analytics Barack Obama crushes John McCain in every category. - Tom O’Keefe, TOKiBiz

The Key Voters Obama leads by 37% among 18-34 year olds Source: Research 2000 (July 25-27, 2008)

The Key Voters I am worried. You cannot ignore the aspirations of the fastest-growing minority in America. - Karl Rove , former Deputy Chief of Staff and senior advisor to President George W. Bush, aboard Air Force One, 8/13/07 NOT SO LONG AGO . . . 9% of Electorate Kerry (04) – 13% advantage Dem Party ID (O6) – 21% advantage Obama – Up 43% Dem Party ID Advantage – 39%

NOT SO LONG AGO . . .

9% of Electorate

Kerry (04) – 13% advantage

Dem Party ID (O6) – 21% advantage

Obama – Up 43%

Dem Party ID Advantage – 39%

The Key Voters Generation Jones tipped the election to Bush in 2004, but Obama is the first national Gen Jones candidate. Obama leads by 22% among women – Kerry had only 3% advantage Source: Research 2000 (July 25-27, 2008)

Veepstakes The Safe Pick The Premature Pick The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick The Surprise Pick The Please, Please Don’t Pick

The loss of three straight special elections . . . are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall. Failure to fundamentally change the GOP brand can lock us into a long period of minority status. Our message is stale. Tom Davis (R-VA) Memo to GOP Leadership Dems have advantage in turnout, registration and fundraising 8 Republican seats are prime Democratic pickup prospects, only 2 potential GOP pickups

The loss of three straight special elections . . . are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall.

Failure to fundamentally change the GOP brand can lock us into a long period of minority status.

Our message is stale.

Dems have advantage in turnout, registration and fundraising

8 Republican seats are prime Democratic pickup prospects, only 2 potential GOP pickups

GOP “ I’ve often observed that if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf.”

SENATE Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority Potential Pickup 4-7 seats Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . .

SENATE

Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority

Potential Pickup 4-7 seats

Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . .

SENATE Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority Potential Pickup 4-7 seats Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . . happily

SENATE

Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority

Potential Pickup 4-7 seats

Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . .

Obama Wins! INDIANA VIRGINIA ELECTION NIGHT BELLWETHER

“ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future ” Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist “ There is no way Dukakis or anyone for that matter can blow a 17 point lead. ” Bennet Kelley Greece (August 1988)

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