Red Meets Blue Left Rt Perspective On 2008 Election

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A Democratic and Republican insider present the case for why their side is going to win in 2008.

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Red Meets Blue Left Rt Perspective On 2008 Election

  1. 1. on the 2008 Election Red Meets Blue A Left to Right Perspective July 30, 2008
  2. 2. KELLEY ELLIS Beltway Brawlers on the Midway
  3. 3. <ul><li>HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul><ul><li>HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul>At least they agree someone will win
  4. 4. <ul><li>HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul><ul><li>HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul>At least they agree someone will win Or do they?
  5. 5. It’s not like there could be a tie - right?
  6. 6. Jim Ellis <ul><li>Provides election analysis for private clients through the PRIsm Information Network </li></ul><ul><li>Former political advisor to the House Republican leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Former consultant to the national GOP political arms </li></ul><ul><li>Previously ran three national political action committees </li></ul>
  7. 7. 1 2 States/114 EVs With Poll Margin 5% or Less
  8. 8. 2000 - Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 271 GORE - 266
  9. 9. 2004 - 3 rd Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 286 KERRY - 251
  10. 10. Merely changing 4 states from 2004 . . . Colorado, Iowa & New Mexico DEMS GAIN GOP GAIN New Hampshire 269-269
  11. 11. Remember Maine! (And Nebraska too!) <ul><li>Both states allocate electoral votes for statewide winner and by congressional district </li></ul><ul><li>McCain is more likely to steal 1 vote from Maine, than Obama is from Nebraska </li></ul>
  12. 12. An election is coming. Universal peace is declared and the foxes have a sincere interest in prolonging the lives of the poultry. T.S. Eliot
  13. 13. John McCain Wins If… <ul><li> he unites his conservative base </li></ul><ul><li> articulates a clear economic message </li></ul><ul><li> sells Obama plan as “pay more for less” </li></ul><ul><li> exploits Democrats’ weakness on energy issues </li></ul><ul><li> commands the national security agenda </li></ul><ul><li>“ Sen. McCain will bring a time of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience and Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference,” Hillary Clinton from a March 2008 CNN appearance. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Is the most likeable” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 58 McCain 23 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Best understands the concerns of people like me” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 47 McCain 36 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  15. 15. Obama’s Strength ? <ul><li>“ Obama – favorable or unfavorable opinion?” </li></ul><ul><li>Favorable 56 Unfavorable 32 </li></ul><ul><li>“ McCain – favorable or unfavorable opinion?” </li></ul><ul><li> Favorable 55 Unfavorable 32 </li></ul><ul><li>Newsweek Poll – July 9-10; 1,037 likely voters </li></ul>
  16. 16. Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Best able to handle the economy” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 44 McCain 37 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Is closest to your views on so-called values issues” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 40 McCain 39 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  17. 17. Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Would best handle situation in Iraq” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 38 McCain 48 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Would best protect US against terrorism” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 33 McCain 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  18. 18. Democrats Achilles’ Heel <ul><li>“ Expect McCain to mainly continue Bush policies” </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 46 </li></ul><ul><li>“ McCain is mainly independent of Bush” </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 44 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  19. 19. McCain Wins if . . . Picks up NH and either MI or PA
  20. 20. Veepstakes The Safe Pick The Premature Pick The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick The Surprise Pick The Please, Please Don’t Pick
  21. 21. Congress <ul><li>“ How would you rate the way Congress is doing its job?” </li></ul><ul><li>Excellent 2% </li></ul><ul><li>Good 7% TOTAL 9% </li></ul><ul><li>Fair 36% </li></ul><ul><li>Poor 52% TOTAL 88% </li></ul><ul><li>WORST NUMBERS OF ALL-TIME!!! </li></ul><ul><li>Rasmussen Reports – July 1; 1,000 likely voters </li></ul>
  22. 22. The Reason for the Poor Ratings??? <ul><li>“ And some of the success of the surge is that the goodwill of the Iranians – they decided in Basra when fighting would end, they negotiated that cessation of hostilities – the Iranians.” </li></ul><ul><li>Queen for a Day Nancy Pelosi; Speaker’s News Conference; 5/29/08 </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;I believe ... that this war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything…” </li></ul><ul><li>Hapless Harry Reid; Breitbart.com News; 4/19/08 </li></ul>
  23. 23. <ul><li>“ the only people less popular in America today than President Bush are O.J. Simpson, the MySpace mom who drove a girl to suicide and Congress.” </li></ul><ul><li>-- Bennet Kelley Huffington Post (7/5/08) </li></ul>If I can run for 2,000 yards, running for Congress should be easy VOTE OJ FOR CONGRESS
  24. 24. Senate 2008 <ul><li>The GOP’s big problem – 23-12… </li></ul><ul><li>… and they can’t do a thing about it </li></ul><ul><li>Battleground: Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, Louisiana </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia to go D; Rs must win Minnesota, Oregon, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska </li></ul>
  25. 25. House 2008 <ul><li>Current D 236 – R 199 (originally 233-202) </li></ul><ul><li>2008: Ds favored in 228 seats; Rs in 189 </li></ul><ul><li>18 rated as toss-ups (9 from each party) </li></ul><ul><li>Open seats favor Ds 28-7; 13 R vulnerables </li></ul><ul><li>Ds have 14 seats that should be R </li></ul><ul><li>Ds will retain control… </li></ul><ul><li>… but by how much? </li></ul>
  26. 26. <ul><li>WARNING </li></ul><ul><li>The following presentation may cause nausea or depression among Republicans, conservatives and all Americans other than Brie-eating, chardonnay-drinking, latte-sipping, French-speaking, Volvo-driving, New York Times reading, tax and spend elite liberals. Consult your doctor for details. </li></ul>
  27. 27. Writer-Columnist-Blogger Bennet Kelley <ul><li>Award winning political columnist for The Huffington Post and The Santa Monica Daily Press </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Author, “Big Bush Lies” ( 2004) </li></ul><ul><li>Publisher, BushLies.net </li></ul>Politico <ul><li>Founder -- Internet Law Center </li></ul>Law & Lobbying <ul><li>Co-Founder and National Co-Chair -- Democratic National Committee’s Saxophone Club (1992-1998) </li></ul><ul><li>Political analyst for radio, print and television media </li></ul>
  28. 28. Merci beaucoup pour cette introduction gentille. Je m'arrêterai maintenant pour de trente seconde pour donner un dernier hasard à trouver à Jim ces armes de destruction massive. Thank you very much for that kind introduction I will now pause for thirty seconds to give Jim one last chance at finding those weapons of mass destruction.
  29. 29. 2004 GOP 286 EVs +16 Dems 252 EVs -18
  30. 30. “ Safe States” 182 EVs in Play 140 - GOP 42 – Dem
  31. 31. Current Status with Leaners GOP States 157 - McCain 12 – Obama 102 – Tossup Dem States 210 - Obama 0 - McCain 17 – Tossup
  32. 32. Current Status with Leaners Magic Number 23 - Obama 98 - McCain
  33. 33. Option Play: 32 Ways to Win <ul><li>Florida </li></ul><ul><li>Ohio + any other state </li></ul><ul><li>Michigan + MO, IN, VA or CO </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia + IN or MO </li></ul><ul><li>Michigan & Nevada + MT or ND </li></ul><ul><li>Michigan & No. Dakota + MT </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia & Colorado + NV, MT or ND </li></ul><ul><li>Indiana & Missouri + CO, MT, NV, ND </li></ul><ul><li>Missouri & Colorado + MT, NV, ND </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia, Nevada, North Dakota & Montana </li></ul><ul><li>McCain – 15 options </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Must win Florida </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If he loses Ohio he must run the table on the remaining states </li></ul></ul>
  34. 34. <ul><li> Running for Change </li></ul><ul><li> Derailing the “Straight Talk Express” </li></ul><ul><li> Running Against John McBush </li></ul><ul><li> Expanding the Map </li></ul><ul><li> Keeping their base enthusiastic </li></ul>Democrats win by Under New Management
  35. 35. <ul><li>Wrong Track: 78% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Bush Disapproval: 73% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Bush a Failure: 69% USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 18-20, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Oppose the War: 68% CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June 26-29, 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer Comfort Index: -43 ABC News June 30, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in Crude Oil: $107.87/pb </li></ul><ul><li>Change in Deficit: $8.9 trillion </li></ul><ul><li>John McCain voted with Bush 95% of the time </li></ul>
  36. 36. <ul><li>John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times </li></ul>“ The Confederate flag is offensive in many, many ways, as we all know. It is a symbol of racism and slavery.” Jan. 9, 2000 in South Carolina.
  37. 37. <ul><li>John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times </li></ul><ul><li>“ Personally, I see the flag as a symbol of heritage.” (Three days later) </li></ul>“ The Confederate flag is offensive in many, many ways, as we all know. It is a symbol of racism and slavery.” Jan. 9, 2000 in South Carolina. “ Mr. McCain later acknowledged, ‘I feared that if I answered honestly I could not win the South Carolina primary, so I chose to compromise my principles.’” Nicholas Kristof, New York Times (same article)
  38. 38. “ Straight Talk on Immigration” For several years, McCain has co-sponsored and supported comprehensive immigration reform legislation which included increased border security and a pathway to legal citizenship.
  39. 39. Potential for Landslide? <ul><li>The Slippery 7 : AK, IN, ND, NC, SC, SD, VA </li></ul><ul><li>Safe Republican States </li></ul><ul><li>Dems have not won ’64 (except Carter won NC and SC in ’76) </li></ul><ul><li>Bush won by avg. 19.5% </li></ul><ul><li>No appearances, no ads in fall 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Obama already airing ads in 6 of the states </li></ul><ul><li>Avg. poll margin Obama -2.5% with IN, ND, MT and VA being tossups </li></ul>
  40. 40. McCain’s “Doledroms” <ul><li>Is McCain “Dole II”? </li></ul>Source: Pew Research Center, USA Today/Gallop
  41. 41. Internet Dominance Source: Nielson Net Ratings, Tom O”Keefe.com Pew Research Center When it comes to web analytics Barack Obama crushes John McCain in every category. - Tom O’Keefe, TOKiBiz
  42. 42. The Key Voters Obama leads by 37% among 18-34 year olds Source: Research 2000 (July 25-27, 2008)
  43. 43. The Key Voters I am worried. You cannot ignore the aspirations of the fastest-growing minority in America. - Karl Rove , former Deputy Chief of Staff and senior advisor to President George W. Bush, aboard Air Force One, 8/13/07 <ul><li>NOT SO LONG AGO . . . </li></ul><ul><li>9% of Electorate </li></ul><ul><li>Kerry (04) – 13% advantage </li></ul><ul><li>Dem Party ID (O6) – 21% advantage </li></ul><ul><li>Obama – Up 43% </li></ul><ul><li>Dem Party ID Advantage – 39% </li></ul>
  44. 44. The Key Voters Generation Jones tipped the election to Bush in 2004, but Obama is the first national Gen Jones candidate. Obama leads by 22% among women – Kerry had only 3% advantage Source: Research 2000 (July 25-27, 2008)
  45. 46. Veepstakes The Safe Pick The Premature Pick The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick The Surprise Pick The Please, Please Don’t Pick
  46. 47. <ul><li>The loss of three straight special elections . . . are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall. </li></ul><ul><li>Failure to fundamentally change the GOP brand can lock us into a long period of minority status. </li></ul><ul><li>Our message is stale. </li></ul>Tom Davis (R-VA) Memo to GOP Leadership <ul><li>Dems have advantage in turnout, registration and fundraising </li></ul><ul><li>8 Republican seats are prime Democratic pickup prospects, only 2 potential GOP pickups </li></ul>
  47. 48. GOP “ I’ve often observed that if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf.”
  48. 49. <ul><li>SENATE </li></ul><ul><li>Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority </li></ul><ul><li>Potential Pickup 4-7 seats </li></ul><ul><li>Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . . </li></ul>
  49. 50. <ul><li>SENATE </li></ul><ul><li>Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority </li></ul><ul><li>Potential Pickup 4-7 seats </li></ul><ul><li>Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . . </li></ul>happily
  50. 51. Obama Wins! INDIANA VIRGINIA ELECTION NIGHT BELLWETHER
  51. 52. “ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future ” Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist “ There is no way Dukakis or anyone for that matter can blow a 17 point lead. ” Bennet Kelley Greece (August 1988)
  52. 53. Recommended Sites
  53. 54. Questions?
  54. 55. THANK YOU No animals, small children or nuns were used and/or harmed during this production.

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