on the 2008 Election Red   Meets  Blue   A Left to Right Perspective July 30, 2008
KELLEY ELLIS Beltway Brawlers  on the Midway
<ul><li>HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li...
<ul><li>HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li...
It’s not like there could be a tie  - right?
Jim Ellis <ul><li>Provides election analysis for private clients through the PRIsm Information Network   </li></ul><ul><li...
1 2 States/114 EVs With Poll Margin 5% or Less
2000 - Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 271 GORE - 266
2004 -  3 rd  Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 286 KERRY - 251
Merely changing 4 states from 2004 . . . Colorado, Iowa  & New Mexico DEMS GAIN GOP GAIN New Hampshire 269-269
Remember Maine! (And Nebraska too!) <ul><li>Both states allocate electoral votes for statewide winner and by congressional...
An election is coming. Universal peace is declared and the foxes have a sincere interest in prolonging the lives of the po...
John McCain Wins If… <ul><li>   he unites his conservative base </li></ul><ul><li>   articulates a clear economic messag...
Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Is the most likeable” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama  58  McCain  23 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Best und...
Obama’s Strength ? <ul><li>“ Obama – favorable or unfavorable opinion?” </li></ul><ul><li>Favorable  56  Unfavorable  32 <...
Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Best able to handle the economy” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama  44  McCain  37 </li></ul><ul><li...
Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Would best handle situation in Iraq” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama  38  McCain  48 </li></ul><ul...
Democrats Achilles’ Heel <ul><li>“ Expect McCain to mainly continue Bush policies” </li></ul><ul><li>Agree  46 </li></ul><...
McCain Wins if . . .  Picks up NH  and  either MI or PA
Veepstakes The Safe Pick  The Premature Pick  The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick  The Surprise Pick  The Please, Please Do...
Congress <ul><li>“ How would you rate the way Congress is doing its job?” </li></ul><ul><li>Excellent  2% </li></ul><ul><l...
The Reason for the Poor Ratings??? <ul><li>“ And some of the success of the surge is that the goodwill of the Iranians – t...
<ul><li>“ the only people less popular in America today than President Bush are O.J. Simpson, the MySpace mom who drove a ...
Senate 2008 <ul><li>The GOP’s big problem – 23-12… </li></ul><ul><li>… and they can’t do a thing about it </li></ul><ul><l...
House 2008 <ul><li>Current D 236 – R 199 (originally 233-202) </li></ul><ul><li>2008: Ds favored in 228 seats; Rs in 189 <...
<ul><li>WARNING </li></ul><ul><li>The following presentation may cause nausea or depression among Republicans, conservativ...
Writer-Columnist-Blogger Bennet Kelley <ul><li>Award winning political columnist for  The Huffington Post  and  The Santa ...
Merci beaucoup pour cette introduction gentille.  Je m'arrêterai maintenant pour de trente seconde pour donner un dernier ...
2004 GOP 286 EVs +16 Dems 252 EVs -18
“ Safe States” 182 EVs in Play 140 - GOP 42 – Dem
Current Status with Leaners GOP States 157 - McCain 12 – Obama 102 – Tossup Dem States 210 - Obama 0 -  McCain 17 – Tossup
Current Status with Leaners Magic Number 23 - Obama 98 -  McCain
Option Play: 32 Ways to Win <ul><li>Florida </li></ul><ul><li>Ohio + any other state </li></ul><ul><li>Michigan + MO, IN, ...
<ul><li>   Running for Change </li></ul><ul><li>   Derailing the “Straight Talk Express”  </li></ul><ul><li>   Running ...
<ul><li>Wrong Track:  78% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Bush Disapproval:  73% (Lo...
<ul><li>John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Krist...
<ul><li>John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Krist...
“ Straight Talk on Immigration” For several years, McCain has co-sponsored and supported comprehensive immigration reform ...
Potential for Landslide? <ul><li>The Slippery 7 : AK, IN, ND, NC, SC, SD, VA </li></ul><ul><li>Safe Republican States </li...
McCain’s “Doledroms” <ul><li>Is McCain “Dole II”? </li></ul>Source: Pew Research Center, USA Today/Gallop
Internet Dominance Source: Nielson Net Ratings, Tom O”Keefe.com Pew Research Center When it comes to web analytics Barack ...
The Key Voters Obama leads by 37%  among 18-34 year olds Source: Research 2000 (July 25-27, 2008)
The Key Voters I am worried. You cannot ignore the aspirations of the fastest-growing minority in America. -  Karl Rove , ...
The Key Voters Generation Jones tipped the election to Bush in 2004, but Obama is the first national Gen Jones candidate. ...
 
Veepstakes The Safe Pick  The Premature Pick  The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick  The Surprise Pick  The Please, Please Do...
<ul><li>The loss of three straight special elections . . .  are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses i...
GOP “ I’ve often observed that if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf.”
<ul><li>SENATE </li></ul><ul><li>Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority </li></ul><ul...
<ul><li>SENATE </li></ul><ul><li>Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority </li></ul><ul...
Obama Wins! INDIANA VIRGINIA ELECTION NIGHT BELLWETHER
“ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future ” Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist “ There is no way Dukakis or an...
Recommended Sites
Questions?
THANK YOU No animals, small children or nuns were used and/or harmed during this production.
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Red Meets Blue Left Rt Perspective On 2008 Election

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A Democratic and Republican insider present the case for why their side is going to win in 2008.

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Red Meets Blue Left Rt Perspective On 2008 Election

  1. 1. on the 2008 Election Red Meets Blue A Left to Right Perspective July 30, 2008
  2. 2. KELLEY ELLIS Beltway Brawlers on the Midway
  3. 3. <ul><li>HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul><ul><li>HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul>At least they agree someone will win
  4. 4. <ul><li>HOW & WHY DEMOCRATS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul><ul><li>HOW & WHY REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THIS YEAR </li></ul><ul><li>KEY VOTERS </li></ul><ul><li>VEEPSTAKES </li></ul><ul><li>CONGRESS </li></ul><ul><li>BELLWETHER </li></ul>At least they agree someone will win Or do they?
  5. 5. It’s not like there could be a tie - right?
  6. 6. Jim Ellis <ul><li>Provides election analysis for private clients through the PRIsm Information Network </li></ul><ul><li>Former political advisor to the House Republican leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Former consultant to the national GOP political arms </li></ul><ul><li>Previously ran three national political action committees </li></ul>
  7. 7. 1 2 States/114 EVs With Poll Margin 5% or Less
  8. 8. 2000 - Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 271 GORE - 266
  9. 9. 2004 - 3 rd Closest Electoral Margin since 1876 BUSH – 286 KERRY - 251
  10. 10. Merely changing 4 states from 2004 . . . Colorado, Iowa & New Mexico DEMS GAIN GOP GAIN New Hampshire 269-269
  11. 11. Remember Maine! (And Nebraska too!) <ul><li>Both states allocate electoral votes for statewide winner and by congressional district </li></ul><ul><li>McCain is more likely to steal 1 vote from Maine, than Obama is from Nebraska </li></ul>
  12. 12. An election is coming. Universal peace is declared and the foxes have a sincere interest in prolonging the lives of the poultry. T.S. Eliot
  13. 13. John McCain Wins If… <ul><li> he unites his conservative base </li></ul><ul><li> articulates a clear economic message </li></ul><ul><li> sells Obama plan as “pay more for less” </li></ul><ul><li> exploits Democrats’ weakness on energy issues </li></ul><ul><li> commands the national security agenda </li></ul><ul><li>“ Sen. McCain will bring a time of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience and Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002. I think that is a significant difference,” Hillary Clinton from a March 2008 CNN appearance. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Is the most likeable” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 58 McCain 23 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Best understands the concerns of people like me” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 47 McCain 36 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  15. 15. Obama’s Strength ? <ul><li>“ Obama – favorable or unfavorable opinion?” </li></ul><ul><li>Favorable 56 Unfavorable 32 </li></ul><ul><li>“ McCain – favorable or unfavorable opinion?” </li></ul><ul><li> Favorable 55 Unfavorable 32 </li></ul><ul><li>Newsweek Poll – July 9-10; 1,037 likely voters </li></ul>
  16. 16. Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Best able to handle the economy” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 44 McCain 37 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Is closest to your views on so-called values issues” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 40 McCain 39 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  17. 17. Strength and Weakness <ul><li>“ Would best handle situation in Iraq” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 38 McCain 48 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Would best protect US against terrorism” </li></ul><ul><li>Obama 33 McCain 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  18. 18. Democrats Achilles’ Heel <ul><li>“ Expect McCain to mainly continue Bush policies” </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 46 </li></ul><ul><li>“ McCain is mainly independent of Bush” </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 44 </li></ul><ul><li>Time Poll – June 18-25; 805 likely voters </li></ul>
  19. 19. McCain Wins if . . . Picks up NH and either MI or PA
  20. 20. Veepstakes The Safe Pick The Premature Pick The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick The Surprise Pick The Please, Please Don’t Pick
  21. 21. Congress <ul><li>“ How would you rate the way Congress is doing its job?” </li></ul><ul><li>Excellent 2% </li></ul><ul><li>Good 7% TOTAL 9% </li></ul><ul><li>Fair 36% </li></ul><ul><li>Poor 52% TOTAL 88% </li></ul><ul><li>WORST NUMBERS OF ALL-TIME!!! </li></ul><ul><li>Rasmussen Reports – July 1; 1,000 likely voters </li></ul>
  22. 22. The Reason for the Poor Ratings??? <ul><li>“ And some of the success of the surge is that the goodwill of the Iranians – they decided in Basra when fighting would end, they negotiated that cessation of hostilities – the Iranians.” </li></ul><ul><li>Queen for a Day Nancy Pelosi; Speaker’s News Conference; 5/29/08 </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;I believe ... that this war is lost, and this surge is not accomplishing anything…” </li></ul><ul><li>Hapless Harry Reid; Breitbart.com News; 4/19/08 </li></ul>
  23. 23. <ul><li>“ the only people less popular in America today than President Bush are O.J. Simpson, the MySpace mom who drove a girl to suicide and Congress.” </li></ul><ul><li>-- Bennet Kelley Huffington Post (7/5/08) </li></ul>If I can run for 2,000 yards, running for Congress should be easy VOTE OJ FOR CONGRESS
  24. 24. Senate 2008 <ul><li>The GOP’s big problem – 23-12… </li></ul><ul><li>… and they can’t do a thing about it </li></ul><ul><li>Battleground: Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, Louisiana </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia to go D; Rs must win Minnesota, Oregon, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska </li></ul>
  25. 25. House 2008 <ul><li>Current D 236 – R 199 (originally 233-202) </li></ul><ul><li>2008: Ds favored in 228 seats; Rs in 189 </li></ul><ul><li>18 rated as toss-ups (9 from each party) </li></ul><ul><li>Open seats favor Ds 28-7; 13 R vulnerables </li></ul><ul><li>Ds have 14 seats that should be R </li></ul><ul><li>Ds will retain control… </li></ul><ul><li>… but by how much? </li></ul>
  26. 26. <ul><li>WARNING </li></ul><ul><li>The following presentation may cause nausea or depression among Republicans, conservatives and all Americans other than Brie-eating, chardonnay-drinking, latte-sipping, French-speaking, Volvo-driving, New York Times reading, tax and spend elite liberals. Consult your doctor for details. </li></ul>
  27. 27. Writer-Columnist-Blogger Bennet Kelley <ul><li>Award winning political columnist for The Huffington Post and The Santa Monica Daily Press </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Author, “Big Bush Lies” ( 2004) </li></ul><ul><li>Publisher, BushLies.net </li></ul>Politico <ul><li>Founder -- Internet Law Center </li></ul>Law & Lobbying <ul><li>Co-Founder and National Co-Chair -- Democratic National Committee’s Saxophone Club (1992-1998) </li></ul><ul><li>Political analyst for radio, print and television media </li></ul>
  28. 28. Merci beaucoup pour cette introduction gentille. Je m'arrêterai maintenant pour de trente seconde pour donner un dernier hasard à trouver à Jim ces armes de destruction massive. Thank you very much for that kind introduction I will now pause for thirty seconds to give Jim one last chance at finding those weapons of mass destruction.
  29. 29. 2004 GOP 286 EVs +16 Dems 252 EVs -18
  30. 30. “ Safe States” 182 EVs in Play 140 - GOP 42 – Dem
  31. 31. Current Status with Leaners GOP States 157 - McCain 12 – Obama 102 – Tossup Dem States 210 - Obama 0 - McCain 17 – Tossup
  32. 32. Current Status with Leaners Magic Number 23 - Obama 98 - McCain
  33. 33. Option Play: 32 Ways to Win <ul><li>Florida </li></ul><ul><li>Ohio + any other state </li></ul><ul><li>Michigan + MO, IN, VA or CO </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia + IN or MO </li></ul><ul><li>Michigan & Nevada + MT or ND </li></ul><ul><li>Michigan & No. Dakota + MT </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia & Colorado + NV, MT or ND </li></ul><ul><li>Indiana & Missouri + CO, MT, NV, ND </li></ul><ul><li>Missouri & Colorado + MT, NV, ND </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia, Nevada, North Dakota & Montana </li></ul><ul><li>McCain – 15 options </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Must win Florida </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If he loses Ohio he must run the table on the remaining states </li></ul></ul>
  34. 34. <ul><li> Running for Change </li></ul><ul><li> Derailing the “Straight Talk Express” </li></ul><ul><li> Running Against John McBush </li></ul><ul><li> Expanding the Map </li></ul><ul><li> Keeping their base enthusiastic </li></ul>Democrats win by Under New Management
  35. 35. <ul><li>Wrong Track: 78% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Bush Disapproval: 73% (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll. June 19-23, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Bush a Failure: 69% USA Today/Gallup Poll. April 18-20, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Oppose the War: 68% CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June 26-29, 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Consumer Comfort Index: -43 ABC News June 30, 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in Crude Oil: $107.87/pb </li></ul><ul><li>Change in Deficit: $8.9 trillion </li></ul><ul><li>John McCain voted with Bush 95% of the time </li></ul>
  36. 36. <ul><li>John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times </li></ul>“ The Confederate flag is offensive in many, many ways, as we all know. It is a symbol of racism and slavery.” Jan. 9, 2000 in South Carolina.
  37. 37. <ul><li>John McCain “ a rare politician with the courage not just to follow the crowd but also to lead it “ Nicholas Kristof, New York Times </li></ul><ul><li>“ Personally, I see the flag as a symbol of heritage.” (Three days later) </li></ul>“ The Confederate flag is offensive in many, many ways, as we all know. It is a symbol of racism and slavery.” Jan. 9, 2000 in South Carolina. “ Mr. McCain later acknowledged, ‘I feared that if I answered honestly I could not win the South Carolina primary, so I chose to compromise my principles.’” Nicholas Kristof, New York Times (same article)
  38. 38. “ Straight Talk on Immigration” For several years, McCain has co-sponsored and supported comprehensive immigration reform legislation which included increased border security and a pathway to legal citizenship.
  39. 39. Potential for Landslide? <ul><li>The Slippery 7 : AK, IN, ND, NC, SC, SD, VA </li></ul><ul><li>Safe Republican States </li></ul><ul><li>Dems have not won ’64 (except Carter won NC and SC in ’76) </li></ul><ul><li>Bush won by avg. 19.5% </li></ul><ul><li>No appearances, no ads in fall 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Obama already airing ads in 6 of the states </li></ul><ul><li>Avg. poll margin Obama -2.5% with IN, ND, MT and VA being tossups </li></ul>
  40. 40. McCain’s “Doledroms” <ul><li>Is McCain “Dole II”? </li></ul>Source: Pew Research Center, USA Today/Gallop
  41. 41. Internet Dominance Source: Nielson Net Ratings, Tom O”Keefe.com Pew Research Center When it comes to web analytics Barack Obama crushes John McCain in every category. - Tom O’Keefe, TOKiBiz
  42. 42. The Key Voters Obama leads by 37% among 18-34 year olds Source: Research 2000 (July 25-27, 2008)
  43. 43. The Key Voters I am worried. You cannot ignore the aspirations of the fastest-growing minority in America. - Karl Rove , former Deputy Chief of Staff and senior advisor to President George W. Bush, aboard Air Force One, 8/13/07 <ul><li>NOT SO LONG AGO . . . </li></ul><ul><li>9% of Electorate </li></ul><ul><li>Kerry (04) – 13% advantage </li></ul><ul><li>Dem Party ID (O6) – 21% advantage </li></ul><ul><li>Obama – Up 43% </li></ul><ul><li>Dem Party ID Advantage – 39% </li></ul>
  44. 44. The Key Voters Generation Jones tipped the election to Bush in 2004, but Obama is the first national Gen Jones candidate. Obama leads by 22% among women – Kerry had only 3% advantage Source: Research 2000 (July 25-27, 2008)
  45. 46. Veepstakes The Safe Pick The Premature Pick The Over-rated Pick The Reach Pick The Surprise Pick The Please, Please Don’t Pick
  46. 47. <ul><li>The loss of three straight special elections . . . are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater losses in the fall. </li></ul><ul><li>Failure to fundamentally change the GOP brand can lock us into a long period of minority status. </li></ul><ul><li>Our message is stale. </li></ul>Tom Davis (R-VA) Memo to GOP Leadership <ul><li>Dems have advantage in turnout, registration and fundraising </li></ul><ul><li>8 Republican seats are prime Democratic pickup prospects, only 2 potential GOP pickups </li></ul>
  47. 48. GOP “ I’ve often observed that if we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf.”
  48. 49. <ul><li>SENATE </li></ul><ul><li>Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority </li></ul><ul><li>Potential Pickup 4-7 seats </li></ul><ul><li>Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . . </li></ul>
  49. 50. <ul><li>SENATE </li></ul><ul><li>Dems will expand Senate majority but will fall short of veto proof majority </li></ul><ul><li>Potential Pickup 4-7 seats </li></ul><ul><li>Dems may only lose only 1 seat . . . </li></ul>happily
  50. 51. Obama Wins! INDIANA VIRGINIA ELECTION NIGHT BELLWETHER
  51. 52. “ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future ” Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist “ There is no way Dukakis or anyone for that matter can blow a 17 point lead. ” Bennet Kelley Greece (August 1988)
  52. 53. Recommended Sites
  53. 54. Questions?
  54. 55. THANK YOU No animals, small children or nuns were used and/or harmed during this production.

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