Warr 4th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting
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Exergy Efficiency and Economic Productivity: Historic Trends and Future Policy Guidelines - A Tale of Four Countries (US, UK, Austria and Japan)

Exergy Efficiency and Economic Productivity: Historic Trends and Future Policy Guidelines - A Tale of Four Countries (US, UK, Austria and Japan)

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Warr 4th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting Warr 4th Iiasa Titech Technical Meeting Presentation Transcript

  • 4th IIASA-TITECH Technical Meeting 2nd –3rd May 2004, Vienna An Elucidation of the Role of Institutional Systems in Characterizing Technology Development Trajectories Robert Ayres and Benjamin Warr Center for the Management of Environmental Resources (CMER) INSEAD Boulevard de Constance Fontainebleau 77300 http://benjamin.warr.free.fr Exergy Efficiency and Economic Productivity: Historic Trends and Future Policy Guidelines - A Tale of Four Countries.
  • Objectives 1. Historical trends in exergy use to provide useful work 2. Efficiency gains have driven growth, and must be maintained 3. Institutional activities 4. Economic implications 5. Environmental implications 6. Future policy guidelines
  • Overview • Trends in fuel and work mix • Declining energy intensity of output • Increasing efficiency of conversion to useful work • Future targets (efficiency and intensity) • Future economic growth • Future welfare (energy poverty) – Role of useful work? – Role of new services?
  • Electricity • Increasing importance of electricity as fraction of total work supply – See breakdown of exergy flows to work – See breakdown of useful work supplied • A wealth effect Japan is following closely the US, however • Stagnating efficiency of conversion of exergy to work
  • Electricity generation, exergy as % of total exergy consumption US 1960-1998 France US Japan UK 45% Shift to non-fuel and industrial uses percentage (%) 35% 25% 15% 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Index of Electricity Output (1960=1) 10 Japan 9 France 8 UK index of electricity output (1960=1) US 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Electricity Output (PetaJoules) 16000 US 14000 Japan 12000 France UK 10000 exergy (pJ) 8000 A wealth effect: see total exergy 6000 for electricity vs. GDP per capita 4000 2000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Total Fossil Fuels for Electricity production (pJ) vs GDP per capita 1000000 France Japan US UK US JAPAN Exergy (pJ) 100000 UK FRANCE 10000 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Hydroelectic electricity supply as a fraction of all renewable energy supplies,1960-1998 100% France 90% Japan 80% UK USA 70% sector fraction (%) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Nuclear electricity supply as a fraction of all renewable energy supplies, 1960-1998. 100% 90% 80% 70% sector fraction (%) 60% 50% 40% 30% France 20% Japan UK 10% USA 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Electricity, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita 50% France Japan 45% UK JAPAN US 40% US UK 35% % 30% 25% FRANCE 20% 15% 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Average efficiency of electricity generation for all commercial energy sources 0.50 0.45 Japan 0.40 0.35 France 0.30 efficiency 0.25 UK 0.20 0.15 US 0.10 0.05 Red lines = 5yr moving average Source: IEA , efficiency = output/input 0.00 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Transport • Common trends in fuel mix trends to supply transport work: • Overall efficiency trends: • Wealth trends: • Policy recommendations:
  • Transport, exergy as % of total exergy consumption US 1960-1998 30% France US Japan UK 25% percentage (%) 20% 15% 10% 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Transport, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita 30% France Japan UK 25% US US 20% % FRANCE JAPAN 15% UK 10% 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Total Fossil Fuels for Transport (pJ) vs GDP per capita 1000000 France Japan UK US US Exergy (pJ) 100000 UK FRANCE JAPAN 10000 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Transport Fuel Efficiencies, 1960-2000 40% Water (Inland) 35% 30% 5% difference between Rail (Diesel Electric) short and long-range flights (Lee et al. 2001, 25% Air (International) Annual Rev. Energy efficiency Air (Domestic) Env. ) 20% or 15% Road (EU) longhaul consumes 10% 1.6 times and shorthaul Rail (Steam) 2.7 times the fuel 5% Road (US) consumed while cruising (Babikian, 2001) 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 year
  • Transport efficiency (all modes) (useful work / exergy), 1960-2000 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% efficiency 10% United Kingdom 8% Japan 6% European Union 4% France 2% United States 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Industry • Japan is has a materials and fuel intensive industrial sector (similar to US) • Japan has fastest historical rate of dematerialisation • This is concentrated in 4 major industries: textiles, minerals, metals and petrochemicals • Reducing resource dependence of energy and materials intensive industries.
  • Non-fuel, exergy as % of total exergy consumption US 1960-1998 10% France US Japan UK 9% 8% 7% percentage (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Non-fuel, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita 10% France JAPAN 9% Japan UK 8% US 7% 6% % FRANCE 5% US 4% 3% UK 2% 100.00 1000.00 10000.00 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Total Fossil Fuels for Non-Fuel uses (pJ) vs GDP per capita 100000 France Japan US UK US JAPAN Exergy (pJ) 10000 FRANCE UK 1000 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Industrial (heat), exergy as % of total exergy consumption US 1960-1998 60% France US Japan UK 55% 50% 45% percentage (%) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Japan - Change in industry sector exergy mix, 1960-2000 -0.83% Textile and Leather -0.04% Construction Wood and Wood Products 0.00% Paper, Pulp and Printing 0.07% -0.04% Food and Tobacco -0.06% Mining and Quarrying Machinery 0.10% Transport Equipment 0.05% -0.30% Non-Metallic Minerals -0.13% Non-Ferrous Metals -1.57% Chemical and Petrochemical -0.21% Iron and Steel -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% annual change
  • US - Change in industry sector exergy mix, 1960-2000 -0.02% Textile and Leather Construction 0.00% Wood and Wood Products 0.12% -0.10% Paper, Pulp and Printing 0.00% Food and Tobacco Mining and Quarrying 0.02% Machinery 0.12% Transport Equipment -0.04% Non-Metallic Minerals 0.08% Non-Ferrous Metals 0.10% Chemical and Petrochemical 0.25% -0.21% Iron and Steel -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% annual change
  • Japan - Breakdown of total industry sector commercial fuel exergy consumption, 1960-2000 45% 40% 35% 30% fraction of total 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Chemical and Non-Ferrous Non-Metallic Transport Mining and Food and Paper, Pulp and Wood and Wood Textile and Iron and Steel Machinery Construction Petrochemical Metals Minerals Equipment Quarrying Tobacco Printing Products Leather 1960 26% 92% 8% 20% 0% 2% 3% 6% 4% 5% 33% 1970 26% 33% 3% 7% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 6% 1980 25% 28% 3% 9% 1% 3% 0% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1990 19% 30% 3% 9% 2% 5% 0% 4% 8% 4% 3% 1998 17% 32% 3% 9% 2% 6% 0% 4% 7% 3% 2%
  • US - Breakdown of total industry sector commercial fuel exergy consumption, 1960-2000 45% 40% 35% 30% fraction of total 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Chemical and Non-Ferrous Non-Metallic Transport Mining and Food and Paper, Pulp and Wood and Wood Textile and Iron and Steel Machinery Construction Petrochemical Metals Minerals Equipment Quarrying Tobacco Printing Products Leather 1960 16% 32% 0% 4% 4% 2% 0% 7% 14% 0% 0% 3% 1970 10% 25% 2% 3% 3% 2% 0% 5% 9% 0% 0% 2% 1980 7% 30% 3% 5% 2% 3% 0% 6% 10% 0% 0% 3% 1990 5% 39% 2% 7% 3% 7% 1% 8% 12% 1% 0% 3% 1998 8% 42% 4% 7% 2% 6% 1% 7% 10% 5% 0% 2%
  • Minerals and Metals exergy consumed / GDP , 1960-2000 1200 Japan UK US France 1000 gJ / billion $ per capita 800 600 400 200 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Minerals and Metals exergy consumed / GDP per capita , 1960-2000 140000 Japan UK US France 120000 100000 gJ / billion $ per capita 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Industry, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita 60% JAPAN 50% 40% FRANCE % 30% France Japan UK 20% US UK US 10% 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Total Fossil Fuels for Industry (pJ) vs GDP per capita 1000000 France Japan UK US US Exergy (pJ) 100000 JAPAN UK FRANCE 10000 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Residential/Commercial • Declining as a % of total up to 1975 then increasing • Income relationship varies greatly from country to country for various reasons • Japan outperforms the US, having lower total consumption for equal GDP per cap.
  • Residential (heat), exergy as % of total exergy consumption US 1960-1998 30% France US Japan UK 25% 20% percentage (%) 15% 10% 5% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Residential and Commercial, exergy as % of total exergy vs GDP per capita 30% France FRANCE Japan 25% UK US 20% UK US 15% % 10% JAPAN 5% 0% 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Total Fossil Fuels for Residential and Commercial (pJ) vs GDP per capita 1000000 France Japan UK US US 100000 Exergy (pJ) UK FRANCE 10000 JAPAN 1000 100 1000 10000 GDP per capita (1990 US$ PCP)
  • Labour Overview Average trends of hours worked and compensation per hour: 1960-2000 (average across 12 OECD countries) 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 index 60.00 40.00 20.00 hours worked compensation 0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 year Source: US Dept. Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002.
  • Hourly rate of compensation index (1992=100): 1960-2000 160 France 140 Japan UK 120 US 100 index 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 year Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) International Labor
  • Growth in Labour Quality 2.50 2.00 Japan US 1.50 1.00 0.50 delta[ln(q)] 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Labour Services (1992 US Hours): 1960-2000 200000 France 180000 Japan UK 160000 US 140000 120000 service level 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 year Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) International Labor Statistics.
  • Aggregated Measures • The individual trends for each country show – Increasing electricity (both) – Increasing transport (both since 1975) – Increasing residential (Japan only since 1970) – Decreasing residential heat (US only) – Decreasing industrial heat (both) – Exergy intensity declining until 1990 (Japan) – Exergy intensity decline since 1960 ongoing (US)
  • Breakdown of exergy inputs into the economy by use US 1960-1998 60.00% ELECTRICITY (prime movers) TRANSPORT (other prime movers) 50.00% HEAT (Industrial) NON-FUEL 40.00% HEAT (Residential) percentage (%) 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Fuel exergy consumption by sector: US, 1960-2000 10.0 Commercial and agricultural sectors for Japan out of range 9.0 Residential Japan 8.0 Transport Japan 7.0 Energy Japan 6.0 index 5.0 Industry Japan 4.0 Commercial US 3.0 Transport US Residential US 2.0 Energy US Industry US 1.0 Agriculture US 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Breakdown of exergy inputs into the economy by use Japan 1960-1998 60.00% ELECTRICITY (prime movers) TRANSPORT (other prime movers) 50.00% HEAT (Industrial) NON-FUEL 40.00% HEAT (Residential) percentage (%) 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Fuel exergy consumption by sector: US, 1960-2000 30000 Transport 25000 Industry 20000 Residential Commercial pJ 15000 10000 Energy 5000 Agriculture 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Fuel exergy consumption by sector: Japan, 1960-2000 9000 8000 Industry 7000 6000 5000 pJ Transport 4000 Residential 3000 Commercial 2000 Energy 1000 Agriculture 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Environmental Kuznets Curve - Commercial Fuel Exergy (pJ)/ GDP per capita (million 90 US$ /millions) 550 France Japan UK US 500 450 400 exergy/GDP 350 300 250 200 150 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Aggregate conversion efficiency of commercial fuel exergy to useful work,1960-1998 30% 25% 20% percentage (%) 15% 10% 5% France Germany Japan UK US 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 year
  • Non-weighted average of exergy to work conversion efficiencies, 1960-1998 Drop in efficiency of electricity conversion efficiency 25% percentage (%) 20% France Japan UK US 15% 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • g = 1/f*(R/GDP), 1960-1998 France Japan UK US 0.028 g (economic output/work input) 0.023 0.018 0.013 1960 1970 1980 1990 year
  • Marginal Productivity of Labour (from LINEX estimates) 1.00 Linex parameter a*((Labour+Exergy Services)/Capital) 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 US 0.20 UK France 0.10 Japan 0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
  • Marginal Productivity of Useful Work (from LINEX estimates) 1.00 US 0.90 UK France 0.80 Japan 0.70 0.60 1-alpha-beta 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
  • Estimates of GDP, Japan 1960-2000 10 Y 9 LINEX Time Dependent CD 8 Time Average CD 7 output (1960=1) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
  • Estimates of GDP, US 1960-2000 3.5 Y LINEX 3 Time Dependent CD Time Average CD 2.5 output (1960=1) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
  • Estimates of GDP, UK 1960-2000 3 Y LINEX 2.5 Time Dependent CD Time Average CD 2 output (1960=1) 1.5 1 0.5 0 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
  • Estimates of GDP, France 1960-2000 4 Y 3.5 LINEX Time Dependent CD Time Average CD 3 2.5 output (1960=1) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993
  • 10 If a reduced to 0.01, b held constant. 9 8 All estimates coincide. 7 Y 6 5 LINEX 4 3 Time Dependent 2 CD 1 Time Average CD 0 74 78 82 62 66 70 86 90 94 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
  • 10 If a increased to 1, b 9 held constant. 8 Estimates diverge. 7 Y 6 LINEX 5 Time Dependent The b parameter 4 CD Time Average CD controls the slope, as it 3 increases so the rate of 2 predicted output 1 increases. 0 90 94 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19