The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (ppt final v.3)


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The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (ppt final v.3)

  1. 1. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
  2. 2. ASEAN Energy Outlook:Regional energy demand and supply outlook up to 2030 The 1st in 2006, The 2nd in 2009, and The 3rd in 2011 Joint output by ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), and National ESSPA Teams Part of Energy Supply and Security Planning in the ASEAN (ESSPA) Program, funded by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan The methodology applied for forecasting was econometric and used an engineering based model with software MICROFIT and LEAP ©ACE, February 2011
  3. 3. The 1st Outlook:First version of the outlook Published in February 2006 Cover only 6 ASEAN Member States (-CLMV) First consideration for improvement of estimated energy demand functions and structure of simulation model Projection Scenarios: 1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario Used historical trends (1980 to 2000) of GDP, GVA, population, number of vehicles in forecasting their future values 2. High GPD Growth Scenario Used the high target of GDP growth rates from each ASEAN Member Countries ©ACE, February 2011
  4. 4. The 2nd Outlook:Country set High GPD Growth Scenario Published in March 2009 Cover all 10 ASEAN Member States Update of the 1st Outlook, enriched with more precise details: break-down of petroleum products, incorporation of refinery process, treatment of indigenous production, and so on Projection Scenarios: 1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario Used historical trends (1980 to 2000) of GDP, GVA, population, number of vehicles in forecasting their future values 2. High GPD Growth Scenario Used the high target of GDP growth rates from each ASEAN Member Countries ©ACE, February 2011
  5. 5. The 3rd Outlook:Energy Efficiency as Alternative Scenario Published in July 2011 Cover all 10 ASEAN Member States Enriched with an analysis of an alternative energy development path Projection Scenarios: 1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario Base on GDP Growth Targets of the 10 Member States 2. Alternative Policy Scenario Base on Energy Saving Goals and Action Plans of 10 Member States in primary energy demand and CO2 emissions ©ACE, February 2011
  6. 6. The Context:ASEAN would barely meet its future energy requirement The world economy is moving from a post-crisis recovery but Southeast Asia would move faster – how does it the affect global energy demand growth? Energy Efficiency is the most effective way of meeting future demand - but are current plans effective enough? Coal and Natural gas production are greater than current consumption – but would there be enough in the future? Vietnam will join Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand dominate the regional energy future – but where will their policy decisions lead us? ©ACE, February 2011
  7. 7. Socio-economic Assumptions:GDP and Population Growth Rates (2007-2030)*Country GDP Population  GDP Projections is Growth slightly lower than onBrunei Darussalam 2.6% 2.1% the previous outlookCambodia 6.9% 1.3% due to globalIndonesia 6.3% 1.1% economic crisis, butLao PDR 7.5% 1.7% ASEAN keep goingMalaysia 5.0% 1.6% above the worldMyanmar 9.0% 1.7% averagePhilippines 4.9% 1.4%Singapore 3.9% 0.7%Thailand 4.1% 0.3%Vietnam 7.5% 0.9% *Source: 10 ASEAN Member StatesASEAN 5.2% 1.1% ©ACE, February 2011
  8. 8. Oil Price Assumption:Base on Japan CIF The world is facing escalating oil price, double than today in 2030 ©ACE, February 2011
  9. 9. Alternative Policy Scenario:1. EE&C TargetsBrunei Darussalam 25% EI from 2005 level by 2030Cambodia 10% TFEC all sectorIndonesia 1%/year TFEC from BaULao PDR 10% TFEC all sectorMalaysia 10% TFEC Industrial, Commercial and Residential from 2011 to 2030 1.39 ktoe TFEC Transportation by 2030Myanmar 5% TPEC by 2020 and 8% by 2030 compare to BaU Improve 16% Energy Efficiency in all end-usePhilippines 10% TFEC all sectorSingapore 20% EI by 2020 and 35% by 2030 from 2005 level Cap 63 Mt-CO2 by 2020Thailand 25% total energy by 2030 compare to BaUVietnam 3%-5% TFEC by 2010 and 5%-8% by 2010-2015 ©ACE, February 2011
  10. 10. Alternative Policy Scenario:2. RE and Biofuels TargetsBrunei Darussalam 10 MW PV by 2030 No targetCambodia 1.5 MW PV, 87 kW Biomass, 500 kW Micro-hydro No targetIndonesia Energy Mix by 2025: 5% Geothermal, 2.6% hydro, +5% biofuels 0.03% wind, 0.74% biomassLao PDR Hydro project No targetMalaysia By 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 5% for road transport MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal Solid WasteMyanmar 15%-20% RE in Electricity Generating 8% for road transportPhilippines New by 2030: 1,500 MW Geothermal, 2,100 MW Displace 15% of diesel and Hydro, 950 MW, 71 MW PV, 102 MW Biomass 20% of gasoline by biofuelsSingapore 5% PV in Energy Mix No targetsThailand 6,329 MW of RE 12.2% for transportVietnam By 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Hydro, 400 MW No targets Biomass ©ACE, February 2011
  11. 11. Alternative Policy Scenario:3. Nuclear Energy TargetsBrunei Darussalam No targetCambodia No targetIndonesia 1.4% nuclear of energy mix by 2025Lao PDR No targetMalaysia 2,000 MW by 2023Myanmar No targetPhilippines 2,000 MW by 2025Singapore No targetThailand Develop 5,000 MW from 2020 to 2028Vietnam 1,000 MW by 2020, increase to 10,1000 MW by 2030 ©ACE, February 2011
  12. 12. Final Energy Consumption:By SectorWill grow 195% (BaU), driven by fast growth of transport sector and increasing per capita income. But, in APS, Transport demand will be 22.4% lower, Industry 19.3%, and Other sectors 14.5% (In total APS demand will be 17.2% lower than BaU). ©ACE, February 2011
  13. 13. Final Energy Consumption:By Fuel Type Oil will remains as the most used fuel ≈ 45% share by 2030 (both in BaU and APS). By 2030, in the APS, the oil demand can be reduced by around 18.6%, coal 20.3%, electricity 17.4%, and natural gas 12.6% from BaU. ©ACE, February 2011
  14. 14. Primary Energy Supply:RE shines, but Fossil Fuels keep its dominance Coal will have the highest growth as demand increases in Industry and Power Generation, but due to Transport use Oil will keep its dominance. Geothermal rise in Indonesia and Philippines, hydropower in Great Mekong Sub-region, and Nuclear in Thailand and Vietnam. APS TPES will be 18.5% lower than that of BaU by 2030. ©ACE, February 2011
  15. 15. Power Generation:Coal and Gas will continue to form bulk of supplyProjected to increase 4x by 2030, Coal and Natural Gas will remain as the backbones of regional electricity generation. The role of oil will become minimal due to diversification programs in favor of alternative fuels and renewable energy. ©ACE, February 2011
  16. 16. CO2 Emission:High Growth, ASEAN should reduce a lotHigh annual escalation of demand for Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, will drive CO2 emission growth at 5.7% per year. Reduced demand in the APS due to EE&C and alternative fuels can reduce CO2 emission to about 697 Mt-C, 24% lower than the 895 Mt-C in BaU. ©ACE, February 2011
  17. 17. Energy Intensity: Increase regional living standardImprovement in fuel mix where natural gas comes more dominant as feedstock for power generation and improvements in energy efficiency, will reduce energy intensity (EI) by almost 50% by 2030 (APS). Due to economic growth resulting in improved living standards will increase energy use per capita at 3.4% per year (BaU) ©ACE, February 2011
  18. 18. Country Energy Share:Vietnam will be one of the major consumers in the future By 2030, due to its projected high economic growth, Vietnam will be one of the major energy consumers in Southeast Asia with its TPES annual growth rate of 6.3%. ©ACE, February 2011
  19. 19. Energy Efficiency:Recent plans would make a difference but are they enough?Energy saving goals set by the governments of the 10 ASEAN Member States; energy efficiency and conservation, nuclear energy, renewable energy including biofuels would be able to reduce primary energy consumption. Indonesia: reduce 25%, Thailand 22%, Malaysia 21% and Brunei 20%. ©ACE, February 2011
  20. 20. Renewable Energy:Will increase but not fast enough Although Other energy (mostly biomass and renewable energy such as bio-fuels, wind, solar, etc) would be increasing, it will have a slower growth rate of 1.7% per annum than the other types of energy. By 2030, its share in Total Primary Energy Consumption will only be 13.4% share, compare with the 23.5% in 2007. ©ACE, February 2011
  21. 21. Implications:Challenges facing energy security As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals, primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in region will increase three folds – increasing pressure on energy security and global environmental stability. If current levels of energy production do not increase – the region will have to source out energy supply from outside. Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low emission technology, and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in Power Generation - would be needed to reduce carbon intensity and enhance energy security. ©ACE, February 2011
  22. 22. Policy Recommendations:Facing energy security risks Encourage more aggressive energy efficiency and conservation measures i.e modal shift in transportation sector, highly efficient clean coal technology, CDM projects, etc. Formulating mechanisms/regulations to remove subsidies to fossil fuel energy and provision of incentives to encourage further development of renewable energy, hydrocarbon resource potential as well as nuclear energy. Establishing energy management systems and energy efficiency standards. Strengthening regional cooperation especially in sharing best practices in energy development and utilization. ©ACE, February 2011
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