Processing remote sensing data for solving environmental problemsDan G. BlumbergBen-Gurion University of the Negev

Bridging the gapThe goodHuge remote sensing DBsMullti-temporalMulti frequencySignals are thereArchival sourceThe badHuge remote sensing DBsNot same timeNot same sensorNot same frequenciesLack of ground truthThe Ugly: without ground truth it is hard to use RS data

Case studiesClimate change in central AsiaVery little wind data 5 reliable stationsModel (ECWM) dataThe two don’t matchSVM and object oriented classificationWorks well but difficult to validate

(SVM) classificationThe field validationP. 4

Geographic distribution of natural hazards

Who Was Affected?The Demography of Tsunami-Affected PopulationDan Blumberg, Deborah Balk and Yuri GorokhovichCenter for International Earth Science Information NetworkColumbia University Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

OverviewPopulation exposurecompositionmeasurementCrude death ratesSocioeconomic profiles of the exposed areasWhere are people now? A hazardous world: a multi-hazard approach

Population exposureWhat do we know about the spatial distribution of human population?People do not live uniformly with respect to National bordersCoastlinesOther geographic features, including hazard-prone regionsSome hazard prone regions may “attract” population, e.g., volcanic soilsCoastal zones support fishing, and access to markets (historically)People moveDaily movement—commuting to work, markets, schoolsSeasonal movements—tourist, labor-migrationLonger term movements—life-cycle (childbearing, retirement), permanent migration, forced migration

The 2004 Tsunamiאירע באוקיינוס ההודי ב- 26 בדצמבר 2004בעקבות רעש אדמה בעוצמה של MS 9.15Created by NOAAAnimation provided by Vasily V. Titov, Associate Director, Tsunami Inundation Mapping Efforts (TIME), NOAA/PMEL - UW/JISAO, USA

רעש האדמה של סומטרה אנדמןSumatra Andaman26 דצמבר 2004תזוזה של 15 מ לאורך 1200 ק"מ באזור ההפחתה שבו הלוח ההודי צונח מתחת ללוח בורמה

Affected countriesIndonesiaIndiaBangladeshThailandSri LankaSumalia

Population densityAsia—particularly south and southeast Asia—are the most densely populated place on earthCoastal zones have disproportionately high population densities450 persons/km2, Asiavs. 175, globallyCoastal areas are more urbanSource: CIESIN, GRUMP v1 (alpha)

Demographic CompositionAge distribution: Asia is young. Proportion of population < 15 yrs ranges between 25-35% as compared with 20% or lower in North America and EuropeHousehold size and composition.Larger, extended, with traditions of fosterageGenderDisplacement affects women and men differently

Population estimationWho was exposed?Who was at risk? Who was affected? Lost livesLost livelihoodsDisplacement

Who was exposed to the tsunami?Wave heights were reported to be 10 m at their maximumPersons below roughly 10 meters, in elevationAt close distance to the coastlineIn most places, the waves were reported to go no more than 1-2 km inland from the coastExcept in parts of Sumatra were there were reported as far inland as 4-5 kilometersAdditional damage from the earth quakeAnd perhaps interactions with floodingHow to quantify the number of persons exposed?

Why is population estimation tricky? Data formats are not easily comparablePopulation data come from censuses:Irregular-shaped units “Who slept here” or usual residence;

Coastlinesmust match, but often don’tShorelines of data sources do not match: Black shoreline: ESRI Red shoreline: Administrative Units, BPSThe finer the scale the more the differences matter

Black shoreline: ESRI

Red shoreline: Administrative Units, BPS

The finer the scale the more the differences matter

Data transformation: admin to grid

Defense meteorological satellitesתמונת לילה של המזרח התיכון

population datashoreline2 km bufferVector and raster data combinationPopulation data are now Gridded (i.e., rasterized)Shoreline is vector (convert to raster)

Shuttle Radar Topography Missionטסה ב 2000 על ה- Endeavour2 מערכות מכ"ם) - band ארה"ב) ו X-bandמודד הפרשי פאזה בין 2 אנטנות על מנת ליצור אינטרפרוגרמה

מיפוי טופוגרפי מן החלל95.3095.4095.505.205.10

1998/04/091998/12/31לפני ואחרי הצונאמיRADARSATהדמאת

2005/01/02לפני ואחרי הצונאמי: סרי לנקהRADARSATהדמאת 2002/12/27

מס' ימים לאחר האירוע (2004)(1998) לפני האירועRadarsat inundation

Radarsat inundationInundated areasObject oriented detection

Urban areasNeed for high res dataIkonosEROS-1AQuickbird

הדמאות Ikonos של אזורים אורבנייםלפני האירוע לאחר האירוע

EROS-1A1.9 מטר

Detected changed areas from the Landsat imagesLandsat scene (30 meters resolution) of northern tip of Sumatra

Estimation population in changed areasAreas of detectable change (light green) Area of analysis = Northern Aceh Province 10 km coastal buffer (yellow) 4 km coastal buffer (not shown)4 km coast buffer on western and northern coasts only (red outline)

Socio-economic conditions of the affected regionThe relative well-off areas hit hardest

Where are people now? Much harder to assessDisplaced persons estimate UNFPA estimates that 500,000 girls and women have been displaced in Sri Lanka alone Short-term needs are different from medium and longer-term onesRecovery effortsWhere are the displaced persons?How to reach them?What are their needs?ReconstructionRebuild with sustainability in mindLearn from assessments of our vulnerabilities

Recovery efforts

Where are the displaced persons?

How to reach them?

What are their needs?

Reconstruction

Rebuild with sustainability in mind

Learn from assessments of our vulnerabilities

How many lives might a warning system have saved?Distance to epicenterEffects of earthquakeEffects of tsunamiInfrastructureCivil alert system?Use of local knowledgeWhich type of warning system?Not all are alikeWould there have been anywhere to go?Up? High ground or buildings?Away—Indonesians had further to go than Sri Lankans

Answers to longer term questions Were geophysical and environmental properties protective in some places? Have recent population dynamics and related behavioral change altered some of the underlying geophysical benefitsE.g., Protective ecosystemsScenario building. What if this—or other hazards—happened elsewhere?These questions presuppose a basic understanding of the population distributionat the time of the event, and even in the recent past

Lessons learnedFor analysis:Baseline information is NOT ready for useData sharing issues arise and pose legal issuesData integration is skill and time intensiveFor policy:Short-term recovery, and medium and long-run development pose much different but closely related questionsWe have a better idea of the right parameters to construct early warningConsider the risk of multiple and different hazards

Mortality risk due to multiple hazards

Economic risk due to multiple hazards

proposalsEU call for environmentEU call for securityHow can available data be harnessed for environmental issues?