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  • 1. The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context 30. June – 3. July 2008 Perugia, Italy Henning Sten Hansen
  • 2. Overview
    • Background
    • The climate change challenge
    • Land-use modelling
    • Examples from Northern Jutland
    • Conclusion and further research
  • 3. Background
    • Climate change has been put on the political agenda during the last 10 years and special attention is given to the impact of climate change in the coastal zone
    • Several EU financed projects like Norcoast and Forum Skagerrak emphasised the need for land-use simulation to compare scenarios for various development perspectives and nevertheless the effects of global warming
    • The current research is a an extension of the work carried out in Forum Skagerrak
  • 4. Emissions scenarios - SRES CO 2 emissions (Gt) CO 2 concentration (ppm) Scenario A1 : Rapid economic growth, reduction in regional difference in income, population passing its peak in the middle of this century Rapid introduction of effective technologies FI : Intensive use of fossil energy sources T : Focus on non-fossil energy sources B : Using as well fossil as non-fossil energy sources Scenario A2 : Continuous uneven economic development and unbroken population growth Scenario B1 : Rapid economic growth and but re- organisation the to service- and information society, introduction of resource effective technologies, the global population culminates about 2050, focus on sustainable development Scenario B2 : Moderate economic growth, continuous moderate growth on world population, slow technological development, focus on local strategies towards a sustainable society
  • 5. Global warming and sea level rise Temperature change ( 0 C) * Sea level rise (m) * SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios *
  • 6. Sea level rise in the Baltic Sea Best case scenario slr = 9 cm Worst case scenario slr = 90 cm
  • 7. Climate change and spatial planning Source: Danish Television NEWS
  • 8. Potential flooding year 2100
  • 9. LUCIA - L and- U se C hange I mpact A nalysis GIS based land-use Projection model Input Current land-use Zones and plans Socio-economic data Output Scenarios : Future Land-use Indicators Sustainability ? ? ? Respond
  • 10. LUCIA User Interface Project management Scenario management Log file
  • 11. Multi-level structure
    • The model is structured hierarchically taking multiple levels into account
    • Population and economic development change the demand for different the active land-use types at the regional levels whereas the precise location of change is determined by local conditions
    National pressures Regional level Local level
  • 12. Conceptual land-use model Suitability Accessibility Proximity Attractivity Micro level driving forces Socio-economic changes Macro level driving forces Land-use (t + 1) Land-use (t) Zones Zones Zones Zones
  • 13. Driving forces for land-use changes
    • Demography (population development, migration)
    • Economic development
    • Technological development (information society)
    • Spatial planning (environmental legislation, energy policy)
    • Environmental impacts (emissions, climate changes)
    • Values of the society (quality of life, concern about the environment)
  • 14. The model in mathematical terms
    • Like in other models we calculate transition potentials for each cell from a set of suitability, accessibility, proximity, attractivity and zoning status
    • The state for which a cell has the highest potential will be allocated to that cell
    P L (t+1) = C L 1 (t) * C L 2 * … C L n * ∑ ( w L i * F L i )   where P = Transition potential C = Constraints (0 or 1) F = Factors (values between 0.0 and 1.0) w = individual weight factor between 0 and 1 L = land-use type
  • 15. Land-use 1990 CORINE 1990 Building and Housing Register Protected Nature areas
  • 16. Suitability
    • Suitability is based on
      • Existing land-use
      • Soil type
      • Terrain
      • More can be added !
    Suitability for residential
  • 17. Accessibility Low High Roads
  • 18. Attractivity
    • Price of land could be a possible indicator for the attractiveness of a specific location
    • The price of land for each Danish parcel is available from the Danish Property Register
  • 19. Spatial planning zones Protected areas Urban zones Summer cottage zones
  • 20. Active, passive and static classes
  • 21. Land-use scenarios
    • We have carried out two scenarios for land-use development in Northern Jutland
    • The demand for traditional urban land-uses as housing, industry and service is based on ‘official’ population projections until 2030 and equal for the two scenarios
    • Summer cottage development are different for the two scenarios
    • The baseline scenario follows the level for summer cottage development 1990 – 2000
    • The alternative scenario takes outset in the figues in the baseline but with an 2% yearly increase in the period 2005 – 2015 and then kept at this level
  • 22. Effect of sea level rise and storm surge
    • The cross-hatched polygons
    • represent sea level rise
    • The hatched polygons represent
    • combined effect of sea level and
    • storm surge
  • 23. Future impacts of expected sea level rise
  • 24. Conclusion
    • The current research demonstrates how a land-use simulation model can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on future urban development in the coastal zone – not at least the expansion of summer cottages
    • The use of spatial scenarios facilitates discussions among professional planners and defines a useful foundation for discussion of spatial planning regulations with policy makers as well as the general public
  • 25. Further research
    • The current simulations are based on business as usual regarding urban development
    • Forthcoming research tries to make a stronger integration of climate change scenarios and land-use scenarios
    THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! E-Mail : [email_address] [email_address]