Impact Of Climate Change Hansen

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Third International Workshop on "Geographical Analysis, Urban Modeling, Spatial Statistics"

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Impact Of Climate Change Hansen

  1. 1. The Impact of Climate Change on Future Land-use in a Coastal Zone Planning Context 30. June – 3. July 2008 Perugia, Italy Henning Sten Hansen
  2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Background </li></ul><ul><li>The climate change challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Land-use modelling </li></ul><ul><li>Examples from Northern Jutland </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion and further research </li></ul>
  3. 3. Background <ul><li>Climate change has been put on the political agenda during the last 10 years and special attention is given to the impact of climate change in the coastal zone </li></ul><ul><li>Several EU financed projects like Norcoast and Forum Skagerrak emphasised the need for land-use simulation to compare scenarios for various development perspectives and nevertheless the effects of global warming </li></ul><ul><li>The current research is a an extension of the work carried out in Forum Skagerrak </li></ul>
  4. 4. Emissions scenarios - SRES CO 2 emissions (Gt) CO 2 concentration (ppm) Scenario A1 : Rapid economic growth, reduction in regional difference in income, population passing its peak in the middle of this century Rapid introduction of effective technologies FI : Intensive use of fossil energy sources T : Focus on non-fossil energy sources B : Using as well fossil as non-fossil energy sources Scenario A2 : Continuous uneven economic development and unbroken population growth Scenario B1 : Rapid economic growth and but re- organisation the to service- and information society, introduction of resource effective technologies, the global population culminates about 2050, focus on sustainable development Scenario B2 : Moderate economic growth, continuous moderate growth on world population, slow technological development, focus on local strategies towards a sustainable society
  5. 5. Global warming and sea level rise Temperature change ( 0 C) * Sea level rise (m) * SRES - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios *
  6. 6. Sea level rise in the Baltic Sea Best case scenario slr = 9 cm Worst case scenario slr = 90 cm
  7. 7. Climate change and spatial planning Source: Danish Television NEWS
  8. 8. Potential flooding year 2100
  9. 9. LUCIA - L and- U se C hange I mpact A nalysis GIS based land-use Projection model Input Current land-use Zones and plans Socio-economic data Output Scenarios : Future Land-use Indicators Sustainability ? ? ? Respond
  10. 10. LUCIA User Interface Project management Scenario management Log file
  11. 11. Multi-level structure <ul><li>The model is structured hierarchically taking multiple levels into account </li></ul><ul><li>Population and economic development change the demand for different the active land-use types at the regional levels whereas the precise location of change is determined by local conditions </li></ul>National pressures Regional level Local level
  12. 12. Conceptual land-use model Suitability Accessibility Proximity Attractivity Micro level driving forces Socio-economic changes Macro level driving forces Land-use (t + 1) Land-use (t) Zones Zones Zones Zones
  13. 13. Driving forces for land-use changes <ul><li>Demography (population development, migration) </li></ul><ul><li>Economic development </li></ul><ul><li>Technological development (information society) </li></ul><ul><li>Spatial planning (environmental legislation, energy policy) </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental impacts (emissions, climate changes) </li></ul><ul><li>Values of the society (quality of life, concern about the environment) </li></ul>
  14. 14. The model in mathematical terms <ul><li>Like in other models we calculate transition potentials for each cell from a set of suitability, accessibility, proximity, attractivity and zoning status </li></ul><ul><li>The state for which a cell has the highest potential will be allocated to that cell </li></ul>P L (t+1) = C L 1 (t) * C L 2 * … C L n * ∑ ( w L i * F L i )   where P = Transition potential C = Constraints (0 or 1) F = Factors (values between 0.0 and 1.0) w = individual weight factor between 0 and 1 L = land-use type
  15. 15. Land-use 1990 CORINE 1990 Building and Housing Register Protected Nature areas
  16. 16. Suitability <ul><li>Suitability is based on </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Existing land-use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Soil type </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Terrain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More can be added ! </li></ul></ul>Suitability for residential
  17. 17. Accessibility Low High Roads
  18. 18. Attractivity <ul><li>Price of land could be a possible indicator for the attractiveness of a specific location </li></ul><ul><li>The price of land for each Danish parcel is available from the Danish Property Register </li></ul>
  19. 19. Spatial planning zones Protected areas Urban zones Summer cottage zones
  20. 20. Active, passive and static classes
  21. 21. Land-use scenarios <ul><li>We have carried out two scenarios for land-use development in Northern Jutland </li></ul><ul><li>The demand for traditional urban land-uses as housing, industry and service is based on ‘official’ population projections until 2030 and equal for the two scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Summer cottage development are different for the two scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>The baseline scenario follows the level for summer cottage development 1990 – 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>The alternative scenario takes outset in the figues in the baseline but with an 2% yearly increase in the period 2005 – 2015 and then kept at this level </li></ul>
  22. 22. Effect of sea level rise and storm surge <ul><li>The cross-hatched polygons </li></ul><ul><li>represent sea level rise </li></ul><ul><li>The hatched polygons represent </li></ul><ul><li>combined effect of sea level and </li></ul><ul><li>storm surge </li></ul>
  23. 23. Future impacts of expected sea level rise
  24. 24. Conclusion <ul><li>The current research demonstrates how a land-use simulation model can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on future urban development in the coastal zone – not at least the expansion of summer cottages </li></ul><ul><li>The use of spatial scenarios facilitates discussions among professional planners and defines a useful foundation for discussion of spatial planning regulations with policy makers as well as the general public </li></ul>
  25. 25. Further research <ul><li>The current simulations are based on business as usual regarding urban development </li></ul><ul><li>Forthcoming research tries to make a stronger integration of climate change scenarios and land-use scenarios </li></ul>THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! E-Mail : [email_address] [email_address]

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