Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity in Educational Outcomes and International Migration in Mexico

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Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity in Educational Outcomes and International Migration in Mexico …

Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity in Educational Outcomes and International Migration in Mexico
Edith Yolanda Gutierrez-Vazquez,Landy Lizbeth Sanchez-Peña, Silvia Elena Giorguli-Saucedo - El Colegio de Mexico

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  • 1. Accounting for Spatial Heterogeneity in Educational Outcomes and International Migration in Mexico
    Edith Gutierrez
    Landy Sanchez
    Silvia Giorguli
    El Colegio de Mexico
  • 2. Educational Outcomes and International Migration in Mexico: A Brief Review
    To have in mind:
    Educational attainment and international migration
    Positive effects: remittances improve chances of school to work transition
    Negative effects: the “culture of migration”: migration as a better social mobility mechanism than education
    Mexico-US Migration is characterized by:
    Strong regional component due to historical trajectories
    since the 90’s the stream spread diversified across the country
    Educational achievement is also strongly diverse across México
    How these two spatial patterns relates?
    How can be captured regional differences?
  • 3. Testing Spatial Heterogeneity Hypothesis: Classical versus Spatial approaches
    Classical definition for migratory regions (Durand & Massey, 2003):
    Based on the historical intensity of Mexico-US flows and on migration prevalence ratio
    Hypothesis:
    International migration disincentives educational achievement, regional variations depending on historic experience: stronger effects in traditional and border regions and smaller in regions where outflow started recently
    Regions defined by migration prevalence at a given point in time
  • 4. Testing Spatial Heterogeneity Hypothesis: Classical versus Spatial approaches
    Spatial approach
    Based on spatial heterogeneity in the relationship between education, international migration and labor market.
    Hypothesis:
    International Migration will have negative effect on educational outcomes but the variations will be due to historical migratory trajectories and to employment and educational infrastructure: strong effects of historical migration experience regions will decrease in regions with a good labor market performance and vice versa
    Regions are defined based on Geographically Weighted Regression results, not solely by migration prevalence
  • 5. Testing Spatial Heterogeneity Hypothesis: Methodological Issues
    Both Classical and Spatial Hypothesis imply spatial processes of:
    Dependence:
    Autocorrelation within regions between local educational outcomes and education, migration and employment trade offs
    Heterogeneity:
    Significant differences in the effects of migration or labor on educational attainment across regions
    Need a dependence and structural heterogeneity spatial model to decide which is the best approach to define regions
  • 6. General Methodological strategy
    Both hypothesis require spatial analysis techniques and suggest a spatial dependence process:
    Corroborating spatial effects:
    OLS regression
    Moran’s I
    Local Indicators of Spatial Association
    Proving differences across regions:
    Spatial Regimes model with a spatial dependence term and a heteroskedasticity correction
    Migration parameter significance
    Chow-Wald Test
    Coefficients Stability Test
  • 7. Variables
  • 8. Educational Outcomes
    Moran’s I 0.3713
    International Migration
    Moran’s I 0.6239
    Results: Significant spatial dependence, heteroskedasticity issues and significant clusters across the country
  • 9. International Migration
    Female Labor
    Low-income Workers
    Industrialization level
  • 10. Traditional Regions
    Spatially Defined Regions
  • 11. OLS Results: Dependence and heteroskedasticity tests
    Traditional Regions
    Spatially Defined Regions
    Heteroskedasticity test, both regional definitions:
    The Koenker-Bassett has a 1% significance level
  • 12. Results Spatial Model with Structural Change and GroupwiseHeteroskedasticity
  • 13. Spatially defined regions Results Spatial error Model with Structural Change and GroupwiseHeteroskedasticity
  • 14. Spatially defined regions Results Spatial lag Model with Structural Change and GroupwiseHeteroskedasticity
  • 15. Conclusions
    Negative effects of international migration on educational outcomes
    Results support hypothesis raised from an interaction between education, migration and labor market
    Regions based on spatial-varying links between dimensions studied are more appropriate to capture heterogeneity and diffusion processes than those defined previously by migration historicity
    Need to use proper geostatistical methods to test and develop hypotheses that imply spatial effects
    Regions are essential to consider how the relationships between sociodemographic variables shape geographical disparities