Transcript of "Ibm smarter asset management for renewable energy final"
Smarter Asset Management for Renewable Energy B.P. Hanley, Asset Management Consultant at IBM, UK, firstname.lastname@example.org; R.J. Clayton, Asset Management Consultant at IBM, UK, email@example.com Asset management solutions provide opportunities across theKeywords: “Renewable”; “Energy”; “Asset Management”; renewable energy lifecycle for faster deployment, reduced“Smarter Planet”; “Lifecycle” costs, improved performance / ROI and safer working.1 Abstract This paper begins by introducing the policy and fiscal backdrop against which renewable energy is being stimulatedBy 2020, 30% of the UK’s electricity is targeted to come in the UK (Sections 3.1 and 3.2). It will then outline thefrom renewable sources – an increase from 9.5% in 2011. As UK’s growth projections (Section 3.3) and the challengesthe industry grows, it must make critical decisions regarding facing the industry (Section 4). How asset managementthe deployment of capital investment, how projects and solutions can add significant value across the renewableresources are planned and managed, and how the operations energy lifecycle and supply chain will then be consideredand maintenance strategy will optimise performance and (Section 5).Return on Investment (ROI) across the lifecycle. This paperoutlines how smarter asset management solutions, applied 2.1 Scopeacross the renewable energy project lifecycle, can lead to:accelerated construction time, reduced downtime, increased This paper focuses on how smart asset management solutionsreliability and enhanced ROI. can support renewable electricity. Asset management solutions can be broadly applied to other forms of renewable energy (e.g. heating), however, these are not covered within2 Introduction this paper. References and case studies are biased towardsThe UK Government has set target that by 2020, 15% of all wind power, which will represent the significant majority ofenergy will come from renewables. Electricity generation the UK’s renewable energy by 2020. The asset managementplays a major part in this, with a target to generate 30% of solutions discussed can, however, be applied across the fullelectricity from renewable resources by 2020. The Scottish range of renewable energy platforms. The challenges andGovernment set a target of 100% electricity from renewable opportunities around renewable energy and smart grids areresources by 2020. The UK is progressing towards the inextricably linked. Whilst asset management solutions haverenewable electricity target and in 2011 renewable energy a significant role to play in delivering smart grids, this isprovided 9.5% of the UK’s electricity generation, an increase outside the scope of this paper.from 6.8% in 2010 . Wind power represents the largestshare of the UK’s renewable electricity, accounting for over50% in 2011 (Table 1). 3 Background Renewable 2011 % 2011 % 3.1 UK Renewable Energy Policy Electricity Capacity change Output change Generation (GW) on 2010 TWh on 2010 UK Renewable energy policy is influenced by three criticalOnshore wind 4.7 +15% 10.4 +45.9% factors:Offshore wind 1.8 +37% 5.1 +67.9%Hydro 1.7 +2% 5.7 +58.0% i) The threat of climate changeSolar PV 1 +1169% 0.3 +658% The UK Government recognises that climate change “is oneThermal* 3.5 46% 13.3 +11.4% of the most serious environmental threats facing the world. ItsAll 12.7 33% 34.8 +35.1% impacts are likely to be felt globally as temperatures increase,Table 1: UK Renewable Electricity Capacity and Generation sea levels rise and patterns of drought and flooding change”(2011)  & (*Thermal includes co-firing) . In response to this threat, renewable energy policy hasTo encourage investment in renewable energy, Government been developed, underpinned by the Climate Change Actintroduced fiscal schemes to bring parity between 2008, which sets legally binding targets for an 80% cut inconventional and renewable energy technologies. Theses greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with interim reduction infiscal schemes have been instrumental in delivering emissions of at least 34% by 2020 (relative to 1990) .significant growth in renewable energy. The sector, however,faces numerous challenges around how it achieves rapid and ii) Managing the security of energy suppliesefficient growth, whilst delivering a stable transmission grid, The UK faces diminishing fossil fuel reserves, which whenwith an intermittent and unplannable load. combined with the projected growth in energy demand, 1
threatens the security of our energy supply. A drive to carbon electricity generation, particularly by organisations,“increase the proportion of energy we obtain from renewable communities and individuals that have not traditionallysources will not only increase the security of energy supplies engaged in the electricity market . Unlike ROCs, whichin the UK; it will also provide opportunities for investment in are market traded, the value of FITs is fixed by Government,new industries and new technologies. The Government will with the value for each technology based on the type ofhelp business develop in this area to put the UK at the technology and its associated economic viability. FITsforefront of new renewable technologies and skills” . provide benefits at 3 levels: • Generation tariff – the electricity supplier will pay theiii) wealth of the UK’s renewable energy resources. FIT for each unit (kilowatt) of electricity generated;The scale of opportunity in the UK is informed by the UKhaving some of the richest wind and marine resources in • Export tariff – energy not used can be exported back toEurope. Wind and marine resource alone could deliver a the grid, with an additional payment; andsignificant proportion of the UK’s electricity demand, with • Energy bill savings – less electricity will be procuredscale to export to the EU. from the supplier impacting the electricity bill.3.2 Financial Mechanisms for Renewable Electricity 3.3 Renewable Electricity Growth ProjectionsAchieving the renewable electricity target of 30% will require In order to achieve its 2020 targets there needs to be a three-investment within the UK of £100bn . Without fiscal fold increase in renewable capacity (from 12.7GW in 2011).drivers parity with conventional fossil fuel technologies will Figure 1 illustrates the growth in renewable electricity bynot be achieved and the associated investment in renewable technology between 2008 and 2020. By 2020, more thanelectricity will not happen . A number of fiscal drivers are 70% of the UK’s renewable electricity will be provided bytherefore in place to incentivise investment and growth. The wind power, which represents the more mature form ofschemes cover a range of scales from domestic micro- renewable electricity technology.generation through to offshore windfarms that will rivalnuclear power stations in capacity. These fiscal schemes areoutlined below. It should be noted that the schemes aresubject to ongoing review, which has informed a degree ofuncertainty and inertia amongst developers.3.2.1 Renewable Obligation Certificates for large scale renewable electricityThe Renewable Obligation (RO) is presently the UK’smechanism for ensuring that large scale renewable generationprojects have grid parity with non-renewable generation.Through the RO, developers receive a subsidy in the form ofRenewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs), which areallocated for each megawatt hour of electricity generated. Thenumber of ROCs awarded varies between technologies – for Figure 1: Renewable electricity technology capacities –example in 2012, 2 ROCs / MW were awarded for offshore comparison between 2008 and projected to 2020 wind farms and 1 ROC / MW for onshore. This reflects the As the UK moves towards 2020, the size of renewable energydifference in costs between developing onshore and offshore projects is forecast to increase significantly. By 2020 some ofwind farms. ROCs can be sold to electricity suppliers, who the planned wind farms will be more than 10 times biggerare legally obligated to supply a determined minimum level than the UK’s largest operating windfarm today, matchingof green power in the UK. During 2012, ROCs have been and even exceeding nuclear power stations in output. As atrading at around £45 . consequence of the FITs, we will also see around 10% of ourThe number of ROCs is set to reduce between 2013 and 2017, renewable electricity coming from small-scale (micro-after which, a “Feed in Tariff Contract for Difference” generation), including domestic installations.approach will apply. Projects already subject to the RO Renewable energy growth is not just dependent onsystem are to be “grandfathered”; therefore, the levels of RO Government Policy and capital investment decisions.support will remain critical for the lifetime of those projects Successful negotiation of the planning system is also critical.accredited to the scheme before it closes. Whilst Government Policy and a generalised support for renewables from the British community  meant that the3.2.2 Feed in Tariffs for Micro-generation significant majority of projects have been approved, localised challenges have prevented many projects from progressing.Feed in Tariffs (FITs) were introduced to encouragedeployment of additional small-scale (less than 5MW) low- 2
4 Challenges the wind generation capacity” . The grid therefore needs to be able to accommodate the new projects whilst ensuring4.1 Rapid growth in renewable electricity to 2020 that the wind power supply is channelled to demand.Whilst growth in renewable electricity has been strong, a On an international scale, the European supergrid wouldthree-fold increase is still required by 2020. For Scotland to enable a wider distribution of electricity across Northernmeet its target of 100% renewable electricity by 2020, will Europe, such that when the wind is blowing and UK supplyrequire a sustained annual renewable deployment rate of more exceeds demand, the energy can be exported to areas wherethan twice ever experienced in Scotland is required . renewable electricity supply is weaker . The technologyAchieving this growth requires the rapid deployment of and standards for high voltage underwater supergrid requiresrenewable energy projects, which are being developed with considerable development.increasing scale. Key to the efficient management of the UK’s energy isMajor renewable energy projects involve significant capital accurate weather forecasting, which optimises the amount ofcosts, complex supply chains and complex challenging paths. renewable electricity that is used by balancing otherThis presents challenges to developers / operators in traditional forms of electricity generation.achieving the efficiencies that will drive ROI. Those that canoptimise their project plans and resources will deploy faster 4.4 Operating and maintaining remote assetsand with lower costs. How renewable electricity assets are managed has a profoundWhilst subsidies (e.g. ROCs) have been instrumental in impact on productivity. Wind farms typically operate with andriving growth in renewable energy, there has been availability factor of approximately 95%. The challengecontinuing uncertainty around the ongoing Renewable facing the industry is to optimise the availability factor, suchObligations reviews. This has undermined the confidence of that failures and outages are kept to a minimum and thatinvestors and renewable energy’s growth potential, maintenance activities take place when the wind is notparticularly given the long lead times in planning and blowing.building major projects such as offshore wind farms . Data management is critical to an optimised operations and maintenance programme. Data collected from the hundreds4.2 Managing the intermittency of supply of sensors, combined with weather data and maintenanceMost forms of renewable electricity are subject to degrees of team management information provides the basis forintermittency in supply. In the case of wind farms, the intelligent analysis that can drive operational improvement.capacity factor (which describes the average output as a In maturity terms the industry is increasingly recognising thepercentage of capacity) is approximately 30% of maximum value of data mining and analytics. In many cases, however,capacity (37% for offshore and 27% for onshore) . the full opportunities are not being realised, withWhilst wind power outputs are predictable over aggregated organisations operating with ad hoc systems that are not fullytime periods, power outputs can vary significantly between integrated let alone configured to exploit data to its potential.one hour and the next. Such intermittency has to be managed. Renewable electricity assets need to be maintained inIf there’s no wind, no electricity is generated and demand potentially dangerous environments. The largest offshoremust be satisfied from elsewhere, unless it can be curtailed. wind farms will feature hundreds of turbines. Maintaining theOn the other hand, what happens with the surplus renewable turbines over their life will require crews working full-time inenergy? How and where will it be stored and by whom? Can some of Britain’s harshest marine environments. Theit be used productively? Can it be exported – is it either challenge is minimising the exposure of workers to these riskstechnically feasible or economically viable? Do the inter- whilst securing efficient maintenance of the assets.connectors with sufficient capacity exist? At what price canpower be imported and exported, if those that are being 4.5 Collaborating within complex supply chainstrading with are facing the same intermittency challenges? How the supply chain is configured can have significantIntermittent output also means there will be a need for implications for project success. Major renewable energygeneration from other – typically non-renewable – projects are characterised by their complex consortia andtechnologies, such as gas generation. This in turn raises supply chains, which are collectively working withquestions about capital spending, managing waste and dealing challenging critical paths and a significant capital cost base.with CO2 emissions. Some of the largest wind farms involve partnership across both the supply chain and amongst competitors. This presents4.3 Upgrading the grid and managing supply challenges around how the consortia operates, howThe national grid was not designed to support the UK’s information is shared quickly and effectively withoutcurrent growth in renewable electricity. “Wind turbines are compromising confidentiality and security.usually located in rural or upland areas, where the electricalconnection to the nearest electricity substation can be weak,and where local demand for electricity may be much less than 3
5 Asset Management Solutions across the plans, concurrent development phases and managing the Renewable Energy Asset Lifecycle complex supply chains. This can accelerate build time, eliminate wasted costs and inform early revenue generation.The challenges associated within planning, designing, In addition to optimizing the location and array of turbines ofbuilding, operating and maintaining large scale renewable wind farms, analytics can be used to model operations,energy projects across complex supply chains necessitates maintenance profiles and supply chains before wind farms aresmart asset management solutions. By Smart, we mean built. Designers can run “what-if” scenarios to model windsolutions – business processes and information systems – that farms before they are built – which can reduce lifecycle costscreate better outcomes by applying data-driven insight to and risks whilst improving productivity and aesthetics.orchestrate the management of the interconnected component Building Information Modelling (BIM) is a new approach toparts. Smart solutions can help integrate renewable energy building design that takes advantage of the wealth ofinto the UK energy mix, allowing developers, operators and available information, to generate 3D digital representationspolicy-makers to plan and build the right sort of generating of physical and functional building characteristics. Once thecapacity, at the right price and in the right locations. The data has been stored in the BIM it can then be migratedfollowing sections provide an overview of how smart asset through the life of the asset and used to inform more efficientmanagement solutions can, and are optimising all stages of operation and maintenance programmes.the renewable electricity project lifecycle. Offshore wind farms need to be maintained in some of5.1 Plan and design Britain’s harshest marine environments. The scale of maintenance operations is likely to involve full time crewsThe optimisation of project strategies requires information and ships working in often challenging conditions. Managingmanagement systems that can bring together disparate pieces these risks, and operational costs requires early integration ofof data and information from across complex supply chains, reliability and fault resistance, including predictive operationwhich often include partners working across the supply chain and maintenance. Design will be crucial – both to create veryand alliances between competitors. Added to which, projects high levels of reliability and building in smart operations.must operate with flexibility to scale up and down as theproject evolves. How the project is managed and how theinformation is shared across the lifecycle is therefore critical. 5.1.1 Case Study: Integrating solutions betweenCollaborative information management systems enable data renewable electricity and renewable transportsharing across organisations, such that the right people can IBM is a partner within Denmark’s “Electric Vehicles in asee the right information at the right time, and without Distributed and Integrated Market using Sustainable Energysecurity or commercial confidence being breached. and Open Networks” (EDISON) consortium. The purpose isWith information management systems, energy demand and to use a critical mass of electric vehicles as a “virtual powersupply can be modelled with a range of options for station” to supply electrical power during periods whenoptimisation. Having all of this information available renewable electricity supply is low and to absorb electricalsupports the detailed planning processes that developers must power when renewable electricity supply exceeds demand. Togo through. make this work, a new breed of metering, analysing, and controlling infrastructure is being developed so that electricWhen a one percentage point improvement in wind capacity cars can communicate intelligently with the grid to(the average output that can be expected as a percentage of dynamically determine when charging or discharging can taketotal capacity) can increase the revenue of 1GW wind farms place. IBM is similarly working with the Isle of Whiteby £10m per annum, ensuring the best location and turbine “ecoisland” Hydrogen Vehicle Refuller project. Through thearray is critical to delivering sustained ROI. Lifecycle Asset project, hydrogen will be produced for the purpose of fuellingManagement (LCAM) ensures that assets create value at hydrogen vehicles, with production taking place when there isevery stage of their operation. excess renewable electricity generation.Analytics make sense of “big data” to better design windfarms, such that marginal improvements to the wind farm 5.1.2 Case Study: Vestasdesign’s efficiency can lead to significant improvements torevenues. Weather and topography data shows us the Given the intermittency of wind power, wind farm owners arelocations that will generate optimal power; in the case of wind increasing pressure on manufacturers to guarantee windfarms, turbine data shows us how the slipstream of one outputs from their turbines before they commit to purchases.turbine affects the other, historic performance information Each percentage point improvement in wind capacity canprovides statistics on the reliability of different turbine generate additional revenues of millions of pounds, and theoptions and site information provides us with information on power generated from different locations and differentease of accessibility to build and maintain the operation. configurations of machines can vary considerably. Getting itOnce planning permission has been granted, information right from the start is therefore critical. To meet this needmanagement systems can support lean planning of the IBM and Vestas are utilising the biggest High Performanceconstruction processes through: the optimisation of project Computer (HPC) in Denmark. The HPC is analysing complex 4
sets of data including power data, topography data and maintenance (O&M) of assets over their lives is critical tohistoric weather data to calculate the power that would be maximising energy generation and the associated ROI.generated in a potential wind farm, running millions of Life Cycle Asset Management (LCAM) solutions will helpscenarios to optimise design and layout and improve maximise availability. LCAM plays a critical part inconfidence levels in predicted generation. scheduling equipment downtime – ensuring planned shut- downs take place when the supply and / or demand is less;5.2 Build when the parts and engineers are available; and whenThe build process itself involves a complex supply chain, downtime will have the least economic impact uponwith a web of risks that could delay the project and incur operation. This involves reducing the reliance on fixed-significant wasted costs. How materials, people and interval inspections and placing greater emphasis onprocesses are resourced will influence the efficiency of the condition-based maintenance, enabled by remote conditionproject and the productivity of the assets once built. monitoring (RCM).Information flow is an important element, ensuring that RCM brings together sensor technologies with advancedprojects progress and that resources and inventory are communications software and sophisticated back-officecommunicated in real-time to those that need to manage them. systems to interpret and derive value from raw data collectedBy looking at the full lifecycle of a project, expensive from energy assets. In the case of wind farms, each turbineresources can be better utilised – for example, the hiring of has hundreds of individual sensed data points. At theships and cranes can be better scheduled with works to operational level, RCM can automatically generateconstruct wind turbines and offshore platforms and install predictions and prioritised alarms, pinpointing turbines whereelectrical systems and cabling. The complex supply chain can there are problems and highlighting issues before failuresbe engaged more efficiently to ensure that work time is occur. This is providing operators with an accuratemaximised and the risks of failure on any of the critical paths understanding of asset condition, allowing them to makeare minimised. Meanwhile an optimised delivery schedule informed decisions on when it is most cost effective towill ensure that the costly storage and transportation of heavy conduct maintenance.and bulky assets and equipment is kept to a minimum. Critically, advanced RCM solutions are not just aboutLean Sigma involves using “root cause analysis” to identify monitoring. They provide tools to actively manage remoteopportunities to change how processes work. In so doing assets - for example, by automatically deactivating equipmentareas of inefficiency and strategic misalignment can be when or before the equipment enters a failure mode. Withidentified which can inform change processes to improve large generation single turbines on the horizon, proactiveproductivity and better structure the processes. Lean Sigma asset management is becoming essential - as turbine outputsprovides an "in-house" methodology tied to strategy through increase, so does the revenue loss from a single turbine failureimproving operational performance and a focus on the or even planned outage.customer and stakeholders. Integrating asset management and RCM is becoming increasingly important with offshore renewable energy assets.5.2.1 Case Study: Learning from aerospace; Airbus 380 Here, integrating asset management and RCM make it possible to organize supply chains and maintenance activitiesAs with many renewable electricity projects, the Airbus 380 to ensure the efficient deployment of staff, where exposure todevelopment was very aggressive. One of the most complex hazards in hostile and remote offshore environments areparts of the aircraft is the wing assembly, which was managed minimized, and costly resources are best used. This couldby Airbus UK, who soon realised that new processes would include, for example, the availability of specialized oceanbe needed to achieve the timescales. Working with IBM, going vessels, for which demand will be high, along withAirbus UK implemented transformation programmes in predications about weather and sea conditions that couldbusiness, financial and organisational disciplines, with a focus hinder operations - it would be expensive and inefficienton reducing cost of design and manufacture, improving spend over £100,000 leasing specialized ship and spendingcollaborative working, and transforming how Airbus worked over 12 hours getting to a wind turbine, only to discover thatwith its many subcontractors. As an outcome, improvements the weather and sea conditions are too dangerous to enablein concurrent engineering reduced lead time on the wing by maintenance to be conducted safely.41 weeks (36% reduction). Similar approaches can beadopted across the wind farm development project to Historic data can be fed back into the design process to yieldaccelerate delivery and enhance ROI. long-term improvements in turbine and generator design. Learning from past performance patterns can be fed into the real-time screening of data streams at the heart of RCM.5.3 Operate and Maintain The intermittency of power output is a major characteristic ofWhen a one percentage point improvement in asset the UK’s renewable electricity portfolio. Significantavailability can increase the revenue of 1GW capacity wind variations in power output between one hour and the nextfarms by £3m per annum, optimising the operations and means that other, non-renewable, energy systems must be kept on line to ensure continued supply. In China, wind 5
power capacity now stands at 50GW (comparing with 6.5GW  Department of Energy and Climate Change. “What arein the UK). This has followed an annual growth rate of 87% the Impacts of Climate Change.” (2012).for the past six years. Through working with Chinese http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/tackling/explaining/ioperators, IBM has implemented solutions to enable better mpacts/impacts.aspxprediction of future power outputs, such that the energy mix  UK Stationery Office Limited. “Climate Change Actis optimised to use wind power when the wind blows – thus 2008.” (2008).minimising both the use of non-renewable energy sources and  Department for Energy and Climate Change. “Renewablethe need for renewable energy curtailment. Day ahead power Energy Policy.” (2012).forecasting is in some cases forecasted with an error of just http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/meeting_energy/rene8%, leading to increased wind power integration of 10%. wable_ener/renewable_ener.aspx  Department for Energy and Climate Change. “Renewable Energy Strategy.” (2009).5.3.1 Case Study: Major European Energy Operator  Guardian Environment Network. “Crucial renewableThrough working with one of the largest renewable energy energy subsidy decision could be delayed.” (2012).operators in Europe, IBM implemented a solution for the real- http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/17/renewabltime monitoring, control, analysis and management of e-energy-subsidiy-decision-delayedrenewable energy assets across its European renewable  Department for Energy and Climate Change. “Theenergy portfolio. The solution collects, analyses and presents Renewables Obligation.” (2012).data from diverse sources such as real-time operation systems http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/meeting_energy/rene(e.g. sensor data from SCADA systems) and business support wable_ener/renew_obs/renew_obs.aspxsystems (e.g. ERP) to enable the operator to make faster and  Department for Energy and Climate Change. “Feed inmore effective business decisions. The outputs from Tarrifs”. (2012).enhanced data visibility, integration and analytics have been http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/meeting_energy/Rensignificant improvements to operational effectiveness and ewable_ener/feedin_tariff/feedin_tariff.aspxcost savings. These have been derived through data driven  Guardian. “Environment Blog: British public strongbenchmarking projects to replicate the optimal strategies used support renewable energy, survey says”. (2011).within the organisation, and new data insights that have http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/dec/14/brienabled new KPIs on which the operator could enhance its tish-public-support-renewable-energymanagement at both a strategic and tactical level.  Scottish Government. “2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland” (2011). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/917/0118802.pdf6 Conclusion  BBC. “Commons energy committee criticises UKBy 2020 the Government has a target to deliver 30% of the renewables plan” (2012) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-UK’s electricity from renewable sources. To achieve this, the scotland-scotland-business-18948447renewable sector, particularly in terms of wind power, is  RenewableUK. “Wind power soars – nearly five milliongrowing considerably. This growth presents a number of homes powered in 2011.” (2011).challenges, including: the rapid growth in renewable http://www.bwea.com/media/news/articles/pr20120329.htmlelectricity; managing the intermittency of supply; upgrading  RenewableUK. “Generating for the UK Electricitythe grid and managing supply; operating and maintaining System.” (2012). http://www.bwea.com/ref/generating.htmlremote assets; and collaborating within complex supply  Earth Times. “European Supergrid – the Vision moveschains. This paper has discussed how Smarter Asset forward”. (2012).Management offers a solution to these challenges. Solutions http://www.earthtimes.org/energy/european-supergrid-vision-have been proposed within the different phases of a wind forward/2070/farm’s lifecycle. Case studies have been presented todemonstrate how leading organisations are applying Smarter BibliographyAsset Management solutions to improve the performance of Bentley, J., Hornsby, S., Hanley, B. & Gibbels, R.their wind farm assets and maximise return on investment. “Renewables: The winds of change”, IBM Smarter Energy, (2011)AcknowledgementsThanks to Steve Hornsby and Trevor Miles for their specialistmaterial expert support.References Department for Energy and Climate Change. “Statisticalpress Release: UK Energy Statistics.” (2012). Department for Energy and Climate Change. “Digest ofUnited Kingdom energy statistics (DUKES) for 2012” (2012). 6