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  1. 1. The European Union & Ben Gavin Its Borderlands Saturday, February 20, 2010
  2. 2. "I want to say that Europe must give itself borders, that not all countries have a vocation to become members of Europe, beginning with Turkey which has no place inside the European Union." "Enlarging Europe with no limit risks destroying European political union, and that I do not accept," -Nicolas Sarkozy, 2007 "Moving forward towards Turkish membership in the EU would be an important signal of your commitment to this agenda and ensure that we continue to anchor Turkey firmly in Europe." “Turkey is bound to Europe by more than just bridges over the Bosporous” Barack Obama, 2009 "I have been working hand-in-hand with President Obama but when it comes to the European Union it's up to member states of the European Union to decide" "I have always been opposed to this entry and I remain opposed." -Nicolas Sarkozy, in response to Barack Obama 2009 Saturday, February 20, 2010
  3. 3. Today’s plan... • Try to Figure out where Europe ends and begins • The Copenhagen Criteria (circa 1993) • Official candidates with potential problems & potential candidates with official problems • The Balkan conundrum (SAAs) • The ENP- Problems and Possibilities, Inconsistent and Incompatible • The ENP- The Siberian Tiger in the room • “Post Soviet Purgatory,” “frozen conflicts,” & the “Kosovo Precedent” • Movie Time! (BBC) • No more “colored” revolutions, it’s Twitter time! The Moldovan riots of 2009! Saturday, February 20, 2010
  4. 4. Awash in Acronyms • EU- European Union • SAA- Stabilization and Association Agreement (Balkan • ENP- European Neighbourhood Policy • MU- Mediterannean Union • EPI- The Eastern Partnership Initiative becomes the Eastern Partnership (EaP) on May 7, 2009 • CIS- Commonwealth of Independent States But... It’s much more than just alphabet soup Saturday, February 20, 2010
  5. 5. “What” or “Where” is Europe? • Historically, Europe’s borders have been dynamic. Often times defined “against” another identity or empire: most notably the Russian empire to the East and the Turkish Ottoman empire to the south. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  6. 6. Who is a European? • What makes a person European... A shared history? • Racial or Ethnic Identity? • Judeo-Christian tradition? (Orthodox, Catholic, Protestant) OR Self Identification? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  7. 7. Cheesiest ? first... With your partners, see if you can come to a consensus on where Europe begins and ends, and who is a European as it refers to EU enlargement? (Is there any difference between being European in general and being European as it refers to EU enlargement? Does the EU have a monopoly on the word?) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  8. 8. History-to-date • 1951- Germany, France, Italy, Benelux • 1973- Denmark, Ireland, UK • 1981 & 1986- Greece... Spain, Portugal • 1995- Finland, Austria, Sweden • 2004- Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus • 2007- Romania, Bulgaria Which EU enlargement is not on the map? What do you notice about the 2004 accessions? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  9. 9. Basic Enlargement Protocols: The “Copenhagen Criteria” circa 1993 • “stable institutions that guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;” • “a functioning market economy, as well as the ability to cope with the pressure of competition and the market forces at work inside the Union;” • “the ability to assume the obligations of membership, in particular adherence to the objectives of political, economic and monetary union.” (Modified at Madrid EC in 1995, to clarify that “assume” means ability to implement.) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  10. 10. Okay so... Why do countries consent to those criteria? Take a minute & discuss what the benefits of being an EU member are & why do countries want to join the EU? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  11. 11. Benefits of EU membership • Political Stability - Internal & • Increased Investment External • Social Policies and Subsidies • Guarantied human rights protections • Promise of open democratic society & elections • Increased Trade - Decrease Tariffs • Increased Competition Saturday, February 20, 2010
  12. 12. Official Candidate Countries • Croatia • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia • Turkey Saturday, February 20, 2010
  13. 13. Potential Candidate Countries (Official) • Albania • Serbia • Montenegro • Bosnia and Herzegovina • Kosovo? (Under UN resolution 1244) note: Albania plans to apply for full candidate status on April 28, 2009 Saturday, February 20, 2010
  14. 14. What do most of the official candidate and potential candidate countries have in common? And what differentiates them? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  15. 15. Balkan Conundrum • The collapse of Yugoslavia, whose government was led out of Belgrade and which had considerable Serbian dominance left a loosely federated, ethnically divided area unclear of distinct borders. This led to almost two decades of violence in the area and a rash of newly declared and independent states during the 1990s and early 21st century culminating with dissolution of Serbia by Montenegro in 2006 & the Feb 17, 2008 declaration of independence by Kosovo. Kosovo was recognized by many western EU members, as well as the USA, creating ambiguities regarding accepted norms of “Westphalian sovereignty” and territorial integrity as it pertained to Serbia. This has become known as the “Kosovo Precedent” which we will discuss later... Guess which Western member doesn’t recognize Kosovo? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  16. 16. Balkan path to accession • Stabilization and Association Agreements (SAA) “Moving closer towards the EU implies meeting the criteria and conditions for each stage. These relate to the Copenhagen membership criteria and the Stabilisation and Association process, including on regional cooperation, good neighbourly relations and full cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)… The pace of each country's progress is determined by its own achievements.”2 "Good neighbourly relations and regional cooperation remain key in advancing towards EU membership and as such constitute a central element of the Stabilisation and Association Process."3 2 Commission Communication on the Western Balkans, COM(2008)127 final, 5.3.2008. 3 EU Enlargement Strategy and main challenges 2008-2009, COM(2008) 674 final, 5.11.2008. After the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, Western Balkan states entered into SAAs with the EU, the SAAs, as well as promoting peace and security for the Balkans also provided the Western Balkan states with a path and criterium for EU integration. Today SAA’s are the main contractual relationship between the Balkan states and the EU. SAA’s in place: Macedonia- 2004 Croatia- 2005 Albania- 2006 Montenegro- 2007 Serbia- 2008 Bosnia & Herzegovina- 2008 Saturday, February 20, 2010
  17. 17. Croatia-Slovenia Border Dispute • Unlike the conflicts in Bosnia between the Croats, Bosniaks, and Serbs or like Kosovo between ethnic Albanians and Serbs. Croatia and Slovenia share a common religion, Catholicism, and have not engaged in combat against one another. But still Slovenia has threatened to block Croatia’s NATO and EU bids b/c of a small portion of land near the Bay of Piran which both countries claim. Slovenia believes its access to the Mediterranean/Adriatic seas is vital to its economic and security interests. (Croatia entered NATO successfully two weeks ago to the chagrin of Slovenia. What do you think that means for Croatia’s EU bid?) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  18. 18. Croatian Opinions Regarding EU Enlargement (2007) If Croatia gets all the benefits we just discussed from EU membership, Why do you think there is such mixed opinions regarding it? Can we assume that a majority of Turkey’s population wants EU membership? (Gallup) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  19. 19. Potential Problems with Official Candidate Countries • Croatia Border dispute with Slovenia, organized crime • Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Name dispute with Greece • Turkey (Perennial Candidate?) AA since 1964 Ankara Agreement, Would enter as its 2nd largest member, Cyprus resolution, A secular but Muslim nation, (Why is that an issue?) Some members (i.e. Romania, France, Austria, Hungary) are opposed to Turkish membership b/c of historical differences and/or demographic concerns, recognition of Armenian genocide, Borders Iraq, Has separatist movements in Kurdistan--Anatolia, Identity issues i.e. If Europe has historically been defined against the Turkish Ottoman Empire, how and when did Turkey become “European” and has it? If so, what implications does that have on Turkish culture and society? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  20. 20. Official problems with potential candidate countries • Albania Drug trafficking, ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, cultural differences as it is a predominantly muslim state in contemporary Europe. (applying for official candidate status very soon) • Serbia Kosovo issue, transitional justice issues i.e Karadzic & Mladic, Serbian nationalism in Bosnia - Is Kosovar independence actually beneficial to Serbia’s EU bid? • Bosnia & Herzegovina Loose federation of Croats, Bosniaks, and Serbs with many nationalist factions and deep divide between political leaders, secession threats, fears of rearmament. (see The Economist, April 2, 2009) • Kosovo... under UN resolution 1244 Is it even a sovereign state yet? Drug trafficking. (at least they use the Euro?) • Montenegro Organized crime, judicial reform, corruption (use Euro as well) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  21. 21. Informal Potential Candidates • Moldova? Reunification with Romania? Resolution of Transnistrian conflict? • Ukraine? Closer relations with EU after “Orange Revolution.” Vital for gas transport from Russia but has internal political issues and rampant corruption. • Kosovo? (under UN resolution 1244) Is it a “sovereign nation?” can it be both formal and informal? • Morocco? Already applied and denied due to geographical reasons • Georgia? “Rose Revolution” ushered in democratic reforms but Sakashvilli has since fought and lost a war with Russia & today Georgians want him to resign amid autocratic fears. • Armenia? If Turkey, why not Armenia? Greek logic? Crackdown of protests in 2008 killed 8, Technically still at war with Azerbaijan via Nagorno Karabakh. (Armenia was first Christian state in world in 301ce.) • Iceland? 2008/9 economic crisis caused the collapse of Iceland’s currency and government. Nowadays EU membership is looking more beneficial than it did previously for the Icelanders. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  22. 22. Another Path? The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Initiated in 2003, with the 2004 accession looming, the EU envisioned “wider Europe” as a “circle of friends,” which the EU would lead in creating stronger economic, social, and political bonds with its neighbor’s to the south and east in order to promote prosperity, peace, freedom and security in the immediate area surrounding the EU ( i.e., integration without accession). “The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) sets ambitious objectives for partnership with neighbouring countries based on commitments to shared values, key foreign policy objectives and political, economic and institutional reforms. Partner countries are invited to enter into closer political, economic and cultural relations with the EU, to enhance cross border cooperation and to share responsibility in conflict prevention and resolution. The Union offers the prospect of a stake in its Internal Market and of further economic integration. The speed and intensity of this process will depend on the will and capability of each partner country to engage in this broad agenda. The policy builds upon the existing framework of co-operation.” (ENP, 2005. country/georgia_country_report_2005_en.pdf) Notice a difference from the Copenhagen Criteria? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  23. 23. ENP MAP Darkest Blue-EU Lighter Blue-Canidate country Gray- Potential Canditate country Green-ENP member Saturday, February 20, 2010
  24. 24. The Union for the Mediterranean • Sarkozy, While campaigning in 2007, proposed a new policy endeavor for the EU, the Mediterranean Union. The MU was proposed as another way to broaden the EU influence and help secure peace in the middle east. Although the MU links all EU members with the participating countries on the Mediterranean, some member states have criticized it for various reasons. • As alternative offer, rather than full membership for Turkey. • As an obstruction to the previous “Barcelona process” embodied in the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, now a part of the MU. • As a Franco-centric plan to enhance France’s standing in the EU and beyond. Many member states were former colonial holdings of France. Why does that matter... That means that the entire infrastructure of the former colonies is most accessible to France and the MU gives France a comparative advantage economically & politically in the Area Saturday, February 20, 2010
  25. 25. Eastern Partnership • Cited sometimes as a continental response to the MU, the Eastern Partnership creates a “regional partnership” with the six ENP members not included in the MU. It is planned to go in force on May 7, 2009 "Shared values including democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human rights will be at its core, as well as the principles of market economy, sustainable development and good governance," "The Eastern Partnership should provide the foundation for new Association Agreements between the EU and those partners who have made sufficient progress towards the principles and values set out [above]." (draft for EU summit on Eastern Partnership May 7, 2009) note: Alexander Lukashenko, Belarussian president has not been invited to the summit in prague and Belarus has NO formal relationship with the EaP as of yet... But wait... if democracy, rule of law, and respect for human rights are at the core of the EaP what about places like Belarus, Armenia, or Azerbaijan? Maybe it’s more geo-political than the EU wants to admit? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  26. 26. ENP Members • Algeria (MU) • Jordan (MU) • Armenia (EaP) • Lebanon (MU) • Azerbaijan (EaP) • Libya (MU) • Belarus (EaP) • Moldova (EaP) • Egypt (MU) • Morocco (MU) • Georgia (EaP) • Palestinian Authority (MU) • Israel (MU) • Syria (MU) • Tunisia (MU) • Ukraine (EaP) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  27. 27. ENP (World Bank Statistics, 2006) ENP Partner GDP in millions $ GDP per capita Population in millions ENP action plan Algeria 114,727 $3,440 33.3 Armenia 6,406 $2,130 3.0 2006 Azerbaijan 20.116 $2,375 8.5 2006 Belarus 36,945 $3,802 9.7 Egypt 107,484 $1,426 75.4 2007 Georgia 7,550 $1,702 4.4 2006 Israel 123,434 $17,677 7.0 2005 Jordan 14,176 $2,634 5.6 2005 Lebanon 22,722 $5,603 4.1 2007 Libya 50,320 $8,436 5.9 Moldova 3,266 $850 3.8 2005 Morocco 57,307 $1,879 30.5 2005 Syria 34,902 $1,790 19.5 Tunisia 30,298 $2,990 10.1 2005 Ukraine 106,111 $2,278 46.6 2005 Palestinian Areas 4,059 $1,805 3.7 2005 Saturday, February 20, 2010
  28. 28. Per Capita GDP - EU Members GDP (PPP) 2008 GDP (PPP) Percentage of EU27 Member States   millions of per capita 2008 average GDP euro   euro   (PPP) per capita 2008    European Union 12,172,536 25,800 100% 1  Germany € 2,309,810 28,100 111% 2  United Kingdom 1,847,105 28,800 114% 3  France € 1,744,444 27,600 108% 4  Italy € 1,500,475 25,200 98% 5  Spain € 1,189,174 26,700 103% 6  Netherlands € 530,564 32,500 131% 7  Poland 515,608 14,000 60% 8  Belgium € 319,867 29,300 118% 9  Sweden 274,499 30,300 123% 10  Greece € 271,206 24,900 97% 11  Austria € 264,472 31,800 125% 12  Romania 244,289 12,690 51% 13  Portugal € 236.697 22,264 90% 14  Czech Republic 209,773 21,100 82% 15  Denmark 171,298 30,500 119% 16  Hungary 158,304 16,400 63% 17  Ireland € 157,070 36,300 140% 18  Finland € 155,640 28,800 115% 19  Slovakia € 98,655 18,400 71% 20  Bulgaria 76,400 11,000 44% 21  Lithuania 50,515 15,700 62% 22  Slovenia € 44,429 23,600 91% 23  Latvia 32,802 13,000 52% 24  Luxembourg € 31,376 70,400 273% 25  Estonia 24,005 17,400 68% 26  Cyprus € 18,109 23,800 92% Saturday, February 20, 2010
  29. 29. Does offering a share of the EU’s Internal (economic) Market impede the dialogue for cultural, social, or political integration by ENP members? If so, what members and in what ways would this benefit and who would this create problems for? And Is it appropriate that some countries gain access to EU’s economic market w/o honoring key requirements such as human rights protections and free or open democratic reforms? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  30. 30. The Siberian Tiger in the room... or nextdoor? Mother Russia • Russia firmly rejected the ENP as an equal member state. Russia views itself as an “equal partner” in its relationship with the EU and still envisions a Russian sphere of influence in a multipolar world. • Instead Russia, the EU’s 3rd largest trading partner, and the EU have created a “special relationship” centered on 4 “common spaces” 1. Economic issues & the environment 2. Freedom, security, & justice 3. External Security 4. Research & education Saturday, February 20, 2010
  31. 31. Siberian Tiger Cont... • The ENP encroaches on Russia’s traditional sphere of influence; the CIS. All of the ENP members are all also CIS members. Oftentimes membership in both clubs creates conflicts of interest & impedes progress & development for the countries caught between the Russia and the EU, a sort of “ Post Soviet Purgatory.” (RFE, Peter Lavelle) • Russia has been known to use its economic power to leverage political advantage in its post soviet space. The “Wine wars” that Russia waged on Moldova & Georgia as well as the the Ukrainian gas crisis are just two examples. • As Russia’s economy is in decline, the EU is looking to the EaP and new association agreements, we can bet that Russia will look to reign in on its traditional sphere of influence Saturday, February 20, 2010
  32. 32. Wine War Moldova & Georgia • 1 in 4 households employed in industry or related field • Up to 30% of GDP • 85% sold to Russia • 2006 Russia bans all wines, declaring them unfit for human consumption. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  33. 33. Frozen conflicts • Area’s in the EU’s periphery where unsettled conflicts over unrecognized sovereignty and territorial integrity undermine the current recognized government, or the government is not recognized at all. 1. Transnistria 2. South Ossetia 3. Abkhazia 4. Cyprus 5. Kosovo 6. Nagorno Karabakh 7. Crimea • As the conflicts undermine the sovereignty of independent states on the EU’s periphery we can infer that it impedes EU expansion, right? Well... what about the “Kosovo Precedent?” Did their declaration actually pave the way to EU integration? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  34. 34. Economic Crisis 2008/9 • The global recession has exposed economic, political, and ideological rifts between EU member states. • Rising protectionism is causing a strain in relationships btwn “old” & “new” Europe. • Only Slovakia and Slovenia have adopted the euro from the 2004 accession. The collapse of currencies and subsequent inflation from the Baltic states to Greece coupled with the debt that they and their citizens own in euros from western EU members and banks has exposed major problems within the EU’s monetary system. • The crisis does not only affect eastern states b/c the east owes the debt to western nations and if they collapse it could severely damage western economies. In that case, is it a good thing that the bulk of eastern states have not yet adopted the euro: i.e. deflate currency? Or should all members be required to adopt the Euro? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  35. 35. Case Study: Moldova Wait...Moldavia? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  36. 36. MOVIE TIME! Saturday, February 20, 2010
  37. 37. Moldavia... Bessarabia... USSR... Moldova... ? • Area originally principality of Moldavian kingdom. • Principality of Ottoman empire • Annexed to Russia 1812 • 1918-1940 united with Romania • 1941 Operation Barbarosa, Soviet Union gains control - Moldavian SSR • 1991 Declares independence • 1992 loses civil war with Transnistria Saturday, February 20, 2010
  38. 38. Bessarabia & N. Bucovina ceded to USSR - 1940 (Note: The Dobruja /Dobrogea borders in S. Romania were also redrawn with Bulgaria) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  39. 39. Present Day Romania - Moldova Saturday, February 20, 2010
  40. 40. Moldova • 1992- fought a war with Transnistria, a separatist region north of the Nistru river. Transnistria won, supported by Russia and its 14th infantry Transnistria easily overwhelmed the Moldovan army. • The Russian military has remained in Transnistria as a “peacekeeping” force ever since • The poorest country in Europe. Over 60% of Moldova’s working age population lives and works outside the country. Over 800,000 citizens have applied for Romanian citizenship. • The only nation in Europe with a democratically elected communist government. (this is a point of serious contention right now) • Has autonomous region known as Gagauz Yeri or Gagauzia. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  41. 41. Transnistria (Transdeniestria, Dnestr Moldovan Republic - PMR) • Declared unrecognized independence 1992 • Firmly entrenched in Russia’s sphere of influence, led by Russian passport holder, Igor Smirnov. (Ex-KGB) • Smirnov’s family runs all major industry and retail through “Sheriff” • Known as “Europe’s Black Hole” b/c of rampant smuggling of gas, guns, goods, drugs, & people (Movie Time) • Has own currency, Transnistrian roubles. • Has Russian 14th brigade military stationed in country & a cache of Soviet weapons at Kolbasna. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  42. 42. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  43. 43. Moldovan Parliament April 7, 2009 Saturday, February 20, 2010
  44. 44. Romania Maps (Inside Bucuresti school K-8) Saturday, February 20, 2010
  45. 45. Moldova - Romania Ethnic Composition • On Tuesday Romania’s president, Traian Basescu, offered a fast track to citizenship for 1 million Moldovan citizens.(FT) • On an unrelated note... Basescu’s daughter, Elena, a model, just got her 100,000 signatures for an EP run. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  46. 46. Moldovan Riots. April 7, 2009. Saturday, February 20, 2010
  47. 47. Twitter revolution? Saturday, February 20, 2010
  48. 48. What do you think was at the root of the recent riots? Reaction to election fraud or simmering dissatisfaction with Moldova’s status in “post Soviet purgatory?” Is this the manifestation of a new path toward entry to the EU -- self identification and determination among a generation who believe they are part of a larger entity and identity? Has the “Kosovo precedent” made the prospect of self determination with EU recognition more likely? Saturday, February 20, 2010