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Manpower Outlook Survey - Q3 2012 Manpower Outlook Survey - Q3 2012 Document Transcript

  • Q3 2012ManpowerEmploymentOutlook SurveyIndia
  • Q3/12Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaContentsIndia Employment Outlook 1 Regional Comparisons Sector ComparisonsGlobal Employment Outlook 8 International Comparisons – Asia Pacific International Comparisons – Americas International Comparisons – EMEAAbout the Survey 19About ManpowerGroup TM2
  • India Employment OutlookThe Manpower Indian employers report bullish hiring plans for Quarter 3 2012. With 55% of employers expecting to increaseEmployment Outlook staffing levels, 2% forecasting a decrease and 32% anticipating no change, the resulting Net EmploymentSurvey for the third quarter Outlook stands at +53%. This is the strongest Outlook2012 was conducted since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005.by interviewing a Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived byrepresentative sample of taking the percentage of employers anticipating total5,244 employers in India. employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employmentAll survey participants at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.were asked, “How do you Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions strengthen byanticipate total employment 5 percentage points and the Outlook is 6 percentageat your location to change points stronger year-over-year. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation,in the three months to the the Outlook stands at +50%. Hiring prospects remainend of September 2012 as relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter and the Outlook improves by 6 percentagecompared to the current points year-over-year.quarter?” From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise. Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Seasonally Outlook Adjusted % % % % % % 3rd Quarter 2012 55 2 32 11 +53 +50 2nd Quarter 2012 49 1 33 17 +48 +49 1st Quarter 2012 43 2 35 20 +41 +44 4th Quarter 2011 35 1 39 25 +34 +33 3rd Quarter 2011 49 2 31 18 +47 +44 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 1
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaRegional ComparisonEmployers in all four regions anticipate an increase in Year-over-year, employers report stronger hiringstaffing levels during the upcoming quarter. The Net intentions in three of the four regions. The OutlookEmployment Outlook of +78% reported in the East for the East improves by 36 percentage points, andreflects a dynamic labor market, and booming hiring employers report an 8 percentage point increase in theprospects are also evident in the West where the West. However, in the North, hiring plans weaken by 6Outlook stands at +52%. Employers report bullish percentage points.hiring intentions in both the South and the North, with Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipateOutlooks of +44% and +43%, respectively. payroll gains in all four regions during the next threeWhen compared with the previous quarter, hiring months, with the most optimistic hiring plans reportedprospects strengthen by a steep margin of 27 in the East and the West. Hiring prospects strengthenpercentage points in the East, and the Outlook for the in two regions quarter-over-quarter and in three regionsWest improves by 2 percentage points. However, a 7 year-over-year.percentage point decline is reported by employers inthe South. 43 North Region 43 79 East Region 78 46 South Region 44 West Region 57 52 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook2
  • North EastWith a Net Employment Outlook of +43%, employers Employers forecast a vigorous hiring pace in Quarter 3anticipate a dynamic labor market in the upcoming 2012, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +78%.quarter. The Outlook is unchanged when compared This is the strongest Outlook reported since the surveywith the previous quarter but declines by 6 percentage began in Quarter 3 2005. Hiring intentions strengthenpoints year-over-year. sharply both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with the Outlook increasing by 27 and 36 percentageBased on unadjusted survey data, employers report points, respectively.bullish hiring plans for Quarter 3 2012. However, theOutlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter and also Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect adeclines moderately when compared with Quarter 3 booming labor market in the coming quarter. A steep2011. improvement is reported in the Outlook both quarter- over-quarter and year-over-year. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005.South WestJob seekers are likely to benefit from a dynamic hiring Employers in the West report the strongest hiring planspace in Quarter 3 2012, according to employers who since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005, with a Netreport a Net Employment Outlook of +44%. While the Employment Outlook of +52%. The Outlook improvesOutlook is 7 percentage points weaker quarter-over- by 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and by 8quarter, it improves by 2 percentage points year-over- percentage points year-over-year.year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecastBased on unadjusted survey data, employers report a vigorous hiring pace in the next three months. Thebullish hiring intentions for the upcoming quarter despite Outlook is considerably stronger both quarter-over-a considerable quarter-over-quarter Outlook decline. quarter and year-over-year.Year-over-year, hiring prospects are slightly stronger. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 3
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaSector ComparisonsEmployers in all seven industry sectors expect to grow and a 12 percentage point increase is reportedstaffing levels in Quarter 3 2012. The most optimistic in the Transportation & Utilities sector. Elsewhere,hiring plans are reported in the Services sector and Outlooks strengthen by 8 and 6 percentage points inthe Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with Net the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and theEmployment Outlooks of +55% and +53%, respectively. Manufacturing sector, respectively.The Transportation & Utilities sector Outlook stands at Based on unadjusted survey data, job gains are+52%, and employers in both the Manufacturing sector anticipated in all seven industry sectors during theand the Mining & Construction sector report Outlooks next three months. The most optimistic hiring plansof +49%. are reported by employers in the Services sector, theQuarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects strengthen in Wholesale & Retail Trade sector and the Finance,six of the seven industry sectors. The Outlook for Insurance & Real Estate sector. Hiring intentionsthe Transportation & Utilities sector improves by 10 strengthen in all seven sectors both quarter-over-percentage points and increases of 6 and 4 percentage quarter and year-over-year.points are reported in the Public Administration &Education sector and the Manufacturing sector,respectively. Meanwhile, Services sector employersreport a slight Outlook decline of 2 percentage points.Year-over-year, Outlooks strengthen in all seven industrysectors. Hiring prospects in the Public Administration& Education sector improve by 14 percentage points 57 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 53 53 Manufacturing 49 54 Mining & Construction 49 44 Public Administration & Education 46 59 Services 55 53 Transportation & Utilities 52 58 Wholesale & Retail Trade 45 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook4
  • Finance, Insurance & Real Estate ManufacturingEmployers forecast a booming labor market in the With a Net Employment Outlook of +49%, employersupcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Outlook forecast a vigorous hiring pace in the July-Septemberof +53%. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter- period. Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects improveover-quarter and improves by 8 percentage points year- by 4 percentage points and employers report a 6over-year. percentage point increase year-over-year.Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipatebullish hiring plans for the next three months. Hiring a dynamic labor market in the coming quarter. Hiringprospects are moderately stronger both quarter-over- plans are moderately stronger both quarter-over-quarterquarter and year-over-year. and year-over-year. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005.Mining & Construction Public Administration & EducationBooming hiring activity is expected in Quarter 3 2012, Job seekers can expect to benefit from a dynamicwith employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook hiring pace in Quarter 3 2012, according to employersof +49%. The Outlook remains relatively stable quarter- who report a Net Employment Outlook of +46%. Theover-quarter but improves by 4 percentage points year- Outlook improves by 6 percentage points quarter-over-over-year. quarter and by 14 percentage points year-over-year.Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expectbullish hiring plans for the upcoming quarter. The vigorous hiring activity in the coming quarter. TheOutlook is considerably stronger when compared with Outlook is moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter andthe previous quarter and also improves moderately improves considerably year-over-year.year-over-year. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 5
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaServices Transportation & UtilitiesWith a Net Employment Outlook of +55%, employers Employers report the strongest hiring prospects sincereport bullish hiring plans for the July-September time the survey began in Quarter 3 2005, reporting a Netframe. While the Outlook is 2 percentage points weaker Employment Outlook of +52% for the coming quarter.quarter-over-quarter, it improves by 7 percentage points The Outlook is considerably stronger both quarter-over-year-over-year. quarter and year-over-year, improving by 10 and 12 percentage points, respectively.Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecasta booming labor market in the next three months. The Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipateOutlook improves slightly when compared with the a vigorous hiring pace in Quarter 3 2012. The Outlookprevious quarter and is moderately stronger year-over- is considerably stronger both quarter-over-quarter andyear. year-over-year. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005.6
  • Wholesale & Retail TradeWith a Net Employment Outlook of +45%, employersexpect a dynamic labor market in the next threemonths. Hiring prospects remain relatively stable bothquarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.Based on unadjusted survey data, employers reportbullish hiring plans for Quarter 3 2012. The Outlook ismoderately stronger both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 7
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaGlobal Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change Quarter 3 2011 Quarter 2 2012 Quarter 3 2012 Q2 2012 to Q3 2012 Q3 2011 to Q3 2012 % % % Americas Argentina 18 (21)1 15 (13)1 7 (10)1 -8 (-3)1 -11 (-11)1 Brazil 37 39 31 -8 -6 Canada 22 (16)1 16 (13)1 18 (12)1 2 (-1)1 -4 (-4)1 Colombia 18 18 20 2 2 Costa Rica 18 (21)1 14 (16)1 10 (13)1 -4 (-3)1 -8 (-8)1 Guatemala 11 (12)1 13 (14)1 11 (12)1 -2 (-2)1 0 (0)1 Mexico 16 (15)1 15 (14)1 16 (15)1 1 (1)1 0 (0)1 Panama 19 16 22 6 3 Peru 15 (16)1 23 (26)1 21 (22)1 -2 (-4)1 6 (6)1 United States 12 (8)1 12 (10)1 15 (11)1 3 (1)1 3 (3)1 Asia Pacific Australia 17 (18)1 13 (12)1 9 (10)1 -4 (-2)1 -8 (-8)1 China 19 (23)1 19 (20)1 17 (20)1 -2 (0)1 -2 (-3)1 Hong Kong 21 (20)1 8 (9)1 15 (14)1 7 (5)1 -6 (-6)1 India 47 (44)1 48 (49)1 53 (50)1 5 (1)1 6 (6)1 Japan 5 (9) 1 23 (11)1 8 (12)1 -15 (1)1 3 (3)1 New Zealand 17 (18)1 18 (17)1 16 (17)1 -2 (0)1 -1 (-1)1 Singapore 29 (29)1 20 (20)1 23 (23)1 3 (3)1 -6 (-6)1 Taiwan 39 (36)1 36 (33)1 40 (37)1 4 (4)1 1 (1)1 EMEA* Austria 10 (8)1 8 (6)1 9 (7)1 1 (1)1 -1 (-1)1 1 1 1 1 Belgium 8 (8) 4 (3) 2 (2) -2 (-1) -6 (-6)1 Bulgaria 14 8 13 5 -1 Czech Republic 3 (1)1 -3 (-4)1 1 (-1)1 4 (3)1 -2 (-2)1 1 France 6 (5) 2 (2)1 4 (2)1 2 (0)1 -2 (-3)1 1 Germany 14 (12) 7 (6) 1 3 (1) 1 -4 (-5) 1 -11 (-11)1 Greece -5 (-9)1 -11 (-12)1 -9 (-13)1 2 (-1)1 -4 (-4)1 Hungary 1 -3 -2 1 -3 Ireland -1 (-4)1 -3 (-3)1 -3 (-6)1 0 (-3)1 -2 (-2)1 Israel – 17 17 0 – Italy -4 (-6)1 -1 (-2)1 -1 (-2)1 0 (0)1 3 (4)1 Netherlands 4 (4)1 0 (0)1 -1 (-1)1 -1 (-1)1 -5 (-5)1 Norway 12 (10)1 8 (9)1 8 (8)1 0 (-1)1 -4 (-2)1 Poland 14 (10)1 6 (6)1 10 (6)1 4 (0)1 -4 (-4)1 1 Romania 20 (11) 9 (11)1 17 (10)1 8 (-1)1 -3 (-1)1 Slovakia – 2 5 3 – Slovenia 7 9 9 0 2 South Africa -1 (1)1 0 (-2)1 4 (6)1 4 (8)1 5 (5)1 Spain -7 (-9)1 -8 (-8)1 -4 (-6)1 4 (2)1 3 (3)1 Sweden 12 (10)1 11 (9)1 8 (6)1 -3 (-3)1 -4 (-4)1 1 Switzerland 4 (7) 2 (0)1 -3 (0)1 -5 (0)1 -7 (-7)1 Turkey 35 26 27 1 -8 UK 4 (3)1 2 (2)1 3 (1)1 1 (-1)1 -1 (-2)1*EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa.1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this datais not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters worth of data is required.8
  • Quarter-on-Quarter Year-on-Year Movement Movement STRONGER STRONGER South Africa 8 pts. India 6 pts. Panama 6 pts.* Peru 6 pts. Bulgaria 5 pts.* South Africa 5 pts. Hong Kong 5 pts. Italy 4 pts. Taiwan 4 pts. Japan 3 pts. Czech Republic 3 pts. Panama 3 pts.* Singapore 3 pts. Spain 3 pts. Slovakia 3 pts.* United States 3 pts. Colombia 2 pts.* Colombia 2 pts.* Spain 2 pts. Slovenia 2 pts.* Austria 1 pt. Taiwan 1 pt. Hungary 1 pt.* Guatemala 0 pts. India 1 pt. Mexico 0 pts. Japan 1 pt. Austria -1 pt. Mexico 1 pt.  Bulgaria -1 pt.* Turkey 1 pt.* New Zealand -1 pt. United States 1 pt. Romania -1 pt. China 0 pts. Czech Republic -2 pts. France 0 pts. Ireland -2 pts. Israel 0 pts.* Norway -2 pts. Italy 0 pts.     United Kingdom -2 pts. New Zealand 0 pts. China -3 pts. Poland 0 pts. France -3 pts. Slovenia 0 pts.* Hungary -3 pts.* Switzerland 0 pts. Canada -4 pts. Belgium -1 pt. Greece -4 pts. Canada -1 pt. Poland -4 pts. Greece -1 pt. Sweden -4 pts. Netherlands -1 pt. Netherlands -5 pts. Norway -1 pt. Belgium -6 pts. Romania -1 pt. Brazil -6 pts.* United Kingdom -1 pt. Hong Kong -6 pts. Australia -2 pts. Singapore -6 pts. Guatemala -2 pts. Switzerland -7 pts. Argentina -3 pts. Australia -8 pts. Costa Rica -3 pts. Costa Rica -8 pts. Ireland -3 pts. Turkey -8 pts.* Sweden -3 pts. Argentina -11 pts. Peru -4 pts. Germany -11 pts. Germany -5 pts. WEAKER Brazil -8 pts.* WEAKER 41 Countries and Territories 39 Countries and Territories** *Indicates unadjusted data. **Year-on-year unavailable for Israel and Slovakia which participated for the first time in Q4 2011. 9
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaManpowerGroup interviewed over 65,000 employers brisk hiring activity. Not surprisingly, the debt crisisacross 41 countries and territories to measure employer continues to weigh on the confidence of employershiring expectations between July and September 2012. throughout the globe, but especially in the eurozone. Employers in Greece, Ireland and Spain report the leastAll participants were asked, “How do you anticipate optimistic global hiring plans.total employment at your location to change in the threemonths to the end of September 2012 as compared to Across the Americas, employers report positive Netthe current quarter?” Employment Outlooks in all 10 countries surveyed. Job prospects are weakest in Argentina following fourAccording to the Manpower Employment Outlook consecutive quarters of steadily declining OutlooksSurvey, ManpowerGroup’s quarterly survey of employer and strongest in Brazil despite employers reportinghiring confidence, third-quarter hiring activity is moderate declines both quarter-over-quarter andexpected to slow from last year at this time in the year-over-year. Hiring plans in the U.S. are the mostmajority of countries and territories surveyed. The optimistic since Quarter 3 2008 following threeresearch reveals few clear signs of notable traction in consecutive quarters of incremental improvements.the labor market, and employers are evidently adoptingan intermittent hiring approach in response to economic Meanwhile, employers in India again report theuncertainty both at home and abroad. However, despite strongest hiring plans globally. The hiring pace isthe general weakening trend, employers still report expected to remain vigorous, and the promise ofvarying degrees of positive hiring activity in 33 of the continuing prosperity is encouraging many Indian41 countries and territories. Employers in 32 countries nationals to return to return to India in order to takeand territories anticipate relatively stable or improved advantage of opportunities and potentially more jobhiring activity compared to the second quarter. Hiring security. Conversely, the hiring pace in Australia isexpectations weaken, however, in 26 countries and expected to slow down for the fifth consecutive quarter,territories compared to last year at this time. although employers do anticipate some opportunities to open up for job seekers in the Finance, Insurance &The research identifies several noteworthy third-quarter Real Estate sector.developments; these include the continued robustlevels of confidence reported by employers in India, Hiring plans throughout much of EMEA continue tocontrasted with signs that the German labor market is remain reserved against the backdrop of uncertaintylosing steam as employers there report their weakest associated with the debt crisis and persistently highNet Employment Outlook in almost three years. levels of unemployment—particularly among theMeanwhile, job seekers in the U.S. are expected to region’s youth. Still, little progress towards structuralbenefit during the July-September time frame from growth policy reforms indicates that debt issuesa continuing pattern of growing confidence among will continue to plague employer confidence in theemployers. foreseeable future and as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands again slip into recession.Worldwide, hiring expectations are strongest in India,Taiwan and Brazil where booming demand among * Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted dataemployers in the Services sector continues to generate where available.Survey Respondents by Region Research for the Quarter 3 2012 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying over Asia Pacific 65,000 human resources directors and senior hiring 25% managers from public and private organizations Americas worldwide. 45% of respondents come from 10 45% countries in the Americas; 25% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 30% from 23 EMEA 30% countries in EMEA.10
  • International Comparisons – Asia PacificManpowerGroup interviewed more than 16,000 strongest forecasts on record. Hiring in the Servicesemployers across Australia, China, Hong Kong, sector continues to be strong. Rapid job growth is alsoIndia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan expected in the Retail sector, due partly to the relaxedto measure anticipated hiring activity in the July- legislation regarding single-brand retail; growth in theSeptember time frame. Positive hiring plans are sector is causing structural talent shortages that India’sreported throughout the region with employers in India, Retailers Council hopes to remedy by training fiveTaiwan and Singapore anticipating the strongest hiring million people over the next five years.intentions. Demand in the Services sector is also fueling optimismWith the exception of Australia, hiring expectations in Taiwan as employers in the thriving Tourism segmentimprove or remain stable from three months ago in struggle to find the right talent. Meanwhile, the strongeach of the region’s labor markets. However, in a third-quarter forecasts in mainland China’s Chonqing,year-over-year comparison, Net Employment Outlooks Wuhan and Suzhou regions reflect how companiesweaken in five of eight countries and territories; the are moving operations inland to the central and westmost notable decline in hiring sentiment is reported by regions from the country’s coastal hubs as a means ofemployers in Australia where job prospects weaken offsetting labor arbitrage.across all industry sectors. Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s Outlook has climbedOpportunities for job seekers are again expected to steadily for three years and is now the strongest sincebe strongest in India where the Outlook now matches the third quarter of 2008. The effects of the rebuildingthe most optimistic forecast reported by the country’s effort following last year’s tsunami and a boost inemployers. Notably, India’s employers have now consumer spending is manifesting itself in steadyreported the most optimistic hiring plans among all improvements to Japan’s Construction and Retailof the countries and territories surveyed for three sectors. Confidence among the country’s employersconsecutive quarters. Additionally, Net Employment is also boosting hiring intentions in the ManufacturingOutlooks in three industry sectors match or exceed the sector to the strongest level in more than four years.Australia China 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. China joined the survey in Q2 2005.Hong Kong India 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 11
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaJapan New Zealand 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Singapore Taiwan 70 50 60 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 0 10 -10 -20 0 -30 -40 -10 -50 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -60 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.12
  • International Comparisons – AmericasNearly 30,000 employers from 10 countries in North, Meanwhile, the upbeat Outlook reported in the UnitedCentral and South America were interviewed to States is led by demand in the Leisure & Hospitalitymeasure hiring activity in Quarter 3 2012. The hiring and Professional & Business Services sectors.pace is expected to remain positive in each country Although the U.S. Outlook continues a steady patternthrough the next three months, and Net Employment of improvement, the results have not translated toOutlooks improve or remain stable in five of the 10 meaningful job creation, yet there are definite signs thatcountries quarter-over-quarter. In a comparison with there are a growing number of opportunities for jobQuarter 3 2011, Outlooks improve or remain stable in seekers with the right skill sets.six of the 10 countries. Opportunities for job seekers Optimism among Peruvian employers improvesare expected to be strongest in Brazil, Panama and moderately in a year-over-year comparison, andPeru, and weakest in Argentina and the United States, employers anticipate an active hiring pace in most ofalthough the U.S. Outlook is the strongest reported the country’s industry sectors and regions; opportunitiessince Quarter 3 2008. for job seekers are expected to be strongest in theBullish hiring expectations in the Finance, Insurance & Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, and hiringReal Estate industry sector are contributing to Brazil’s plans in the Manufacturing and Transportation &bright Outlook; government measures here to cut Utilities sectors are the strongest in approximately fourinterest rates and encourage consumer spending and years. And as they have in seven of the eight previousgrowth are evidently beginning to have an impact. quarters, Canadian employers in the Mining sectorDespite reporting the strongest forecast in the continue to report the strongest hiring plans in theAmericas, the Outlook from Brazilian employers—as country, although government reports indicate thatwell as those in Argentina—is notably more cautious demand for skilled workers is expected to outstrip thethan three months ago and is the weakest forecast supply and compel employers to look beyond their ownsince Quarter 1 2010. borders to locate suitable talent.Argentina Brazil 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007. Brazil joined the survey in Q4 2009.Canada Colombia 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008. 13
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaCosta Rica Guatemala 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006. Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.Mexico Panama 50 60 40 50 30 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Panama joined the survey in Q2 2010.Peru USA 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.14
  • International Comparisons – EMEAMore than 19,500 employers across 23 countries in and hiring plans are at their weakest since the Dutchthe Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region survey began in 2003.were interviewed to gauge anticipated hiring activity for Employer hiring sentiment in the UK remains tepidQuarter 3 2012. as the country unexpectedly slipped into its secondThe short-term hiring forecast across the EMEA region official recession in four years following a larger thanis relatively stable or improved from the second quarter anticipated slump in financial services, oil and gasin 20 of the 23 countries. However, Net Employment extraction and construction. Still, opportunities do existOutlooks weaken in 17 countries in a year-over-year for those with in-demand skill sets. This is especiallycomparison. The region’s hiring plans are strongest in true for top-level engineers; employers in nearly half ofTurkey, Israel, Bulgaria, Romania and Norway, and for the UK’s engineering firms currently experience difficultythe second consecutive quarter are weakest in Greece. in their attempts to find suitable senior-level engineers, and more than a third complain that less-experiencedThe buoyant forecast in Turkey is partially due to recruits often fail to meet their requirements.optimism in the Public & Social sector as employersrespond to the Labor Ministry’s approval of funding Despite one of the lowest unemployment rates on thefor 34,000 new positions in government combined European continent, the labor market in Switzerlandwith an aggressive recruitment initiative for Education. remains stagnant. There are encouraging signs thatMeanwhile, optimism is notably weaker in Germany investments in the Construction sector may increase,as many large companies, including Bayer, Opel and triggered by low interest rates. However, theseOsram, plan downsizings in the months ahead; Net developments have yet to spark a corresponding uptickEmployment Outlooks fall in all but one industry sector in hiring as the Construction sector Outlook sinks to itsyear-over-year. Similarly, hiring plans in the Netherlands weakest level since the Swiss survey began.remain subdued as employers there report their first Europe’s debt crisis continues to place a drag onnegative forecast since the second quarter of 2010. regional hiring intentions—all seven countries reportingMeanwhile, employer sentiment in the Manufacturing negative third-quarter hiring intentions are in the region.sector has now declined for four consecutive quartersAustria Belgium 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. 15
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaBulgaria Czech Republic 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 2011. Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.France Germany 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Greece Hungary 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook -10 Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008. Hungary joined the survey in Q3 2009.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Ireland Israel 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Israel joined the survey in Q4 2011.16
  • Italy Netherlands 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Norway Poland 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.Romania Slovakia 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008. Slovakia joined the survey in Q4 2011.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Slovenia South Africa 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 2011. South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. 17
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaSpain Sweden 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Switzerland Turkey 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005. Turkey joined the survey in Q1 2011.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.UK 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.18
  • About the SurveyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted Net Employment Outlookquarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforces during Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employmentthe next quarter. The survey has been running for 50 years Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentageand is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity andin the world. Various factors underpin the success of the subtracting from this the percentage of employers expectingManpower Employment Outlook Survey: to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net EmploymentUnique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area Outlook.of focus.Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is Seasonal Adjustmentthe most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data forthe world, asking employers to forecast employment over the Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Costa Rica,next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on China, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece,retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past. Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Romania,Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,sample of employers from throughout the countries in which Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States to provideit is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from additional insight into the survey data. These adjustmentsManpower’s customer base. make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time eachRobust: The survey is based on interviews with over 65,000 year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time.public and private employers across 41 countries and ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to theterritories to measure anticipated employment trends each data for other countries in the future, as more historical dataquarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, ManpowerGroupacross specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustmentinformation. for data.Focused: For nearly five decades, the survey has derived allof its information from a single question.Survey QuestionAll employers participating in the survey worldwide are askedthe same question, “How do you anticipate total employmentat your location to change in the three months to the end ofSeptember 2012 as compared to the current quarter?”MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedusing a validated methodology, in accordance with thehighest standards in market research. The research team forthe 41 countries and territories where the survey is currentlyconducted includes ManpowerGroup’s internal researchteam and Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to berepresentative of each national economy. The margin of errorfor all national, regional and global data is not greater than+/- 3.9%. 19
  • Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaHistory of the Survey1962 First generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the third Survey launched in the United States and Canada. quarter. Manpower operations in South Africa launch1966 ManpowerGroup’s United Kingdom operation launches the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. the equivalent of the United States survey, naming the 2007 ManpowerGroup operations in Argentina join the report the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in The survey adopts the same forward looking research New Zealand adds seasonally adjusted data in the first format as the United States survey and is the first of its quarter. kind in Europe. 2008 ManpowerGroup operations in Colombia, the Czech1976 Second generation of the Manpower Employment Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania Outlook Survey launched in the United States and join the survey program. China and Taiwan add Canada. Research methodology is updated to evolve seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter. India with advancements in the field of market research. and Switzerland add seasonally adjusted data in the2002 ManpowerGroup United Kingdoms Quarterly Survey third quarter. of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research methodology. ManpowerGroups 2009 ManpowerGroup operations in Hungary and Brazil operations in Mexico and Ireland launch the survey in launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. their respective countries. 2010 ManpowerGroup’s Panama operation launches the2003 Third generation of the Manpower Employment Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, expanding the Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the program program total to 36 countries and territories worldwide. to a total of 18 countries and territories worldwide: Peru adds seasonally adjusted data in the second Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, quarter. Costa Rica adds seasonally adjusted data in Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, the first quarter. Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United 2011 Beginning in the first quarter, operations in Bulgaria, Kingdom and the United States. Slovenia and Turkey join the Manpower Employment2004 ManpowerGroup operations in New Zealand launch Outlook Survey. Additionally, seasonally adjusted data the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. is added in the first quarter for Argentina and South2005 ManpowerGroup operations in China, India, Africa. Israel and Slovakia launch the Manpower Switzerland, and Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the fourth quarter. Employment Outlook Survey. 2012 Beginning in the second quarter, ManpowerGroup2006 ManpowerGroup operations in Costa Rica and Peru operations in the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, join the survey program. Surveys in Australia, Austria, Poland and Romania initiate reporting of seasonally Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, adjusted data. Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain20
  • About ManpowerGroup™ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN), the world leader in innovative workforce solutions, creates and delivers high-impact solutionsthat enable our clients to achieve their business goals and enhance their competitiveness. With over 60 years of experience,our $22 billion company creates unique time to value through a comprehensive suite of innovative solutions that help clientswin in the Human Age. These solutions cover an entire range of talent-driven needs from recruitment and assessment, trainingand development, and career management, to outsourcing and workforce consulting. ManpowerGroup maintains the world’slargest and industry-leading network of nearly 3,800 offices in over 80 countries and territories, generating a dynamic mix of anunmatched global footprint with valuable insight and local expertise to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, acrossall industry sectors, small and medium-sized enterprises, local, multinational and global companies. By connecting our deepunderstanding of human potential to the ambitions of clients, ManpowerGroup helps the organizations and individuals we serveachieve more than they imagined – because their success leads to our success. And by creating these powerful connections,we create power that drives organizations forward, accelerates personal success and builds more sustainable communities.We help power the world of work. The ManpowerGroup suite of solutions is offered through ManpowerGroup™ Solutions,Manpower®, Experis™ and Right Management®. Learn more about how ManpowerGroup can help you win in the Human Ageat www.manpowergroup.com.ManpowerGroup is the most trusted brand in the industry, and was once again the only company in our industry to be namedto the Ethisphere Institutes 2012 Worlds Most Ethical Companies list for our proven commitment to ethical business practices,including an outstanding commitment to ethical leadership, compliance practices and corporate social responsibility.In January 2011, at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, ManpowerGroup announced the worldhas entered the Human Age, where talent has replaced capital as the key competitive differentiator. This concept of talentism asthe new capitalism continues to resonate and was echoed as a core theme of the 2012 Annual Meeting of the World EconomicForum in Davos. Learn more about this new age at www.manpowergroup.com/humanage.Gain access to ManpowerGroup’s extensive thought leadership papers, annual Talent Shortage surveys and the ManpowerEmployment Outlook Survey, one of the most trusted indices of employment activity in the world, via the ManpowerGroupWorld of Work Insight iPad application. This thought leadership app explores the challenges faced by employers navigating thechanging world of work and provides in-depth commentary, analysis, insight and advice on strategies for success.Follow ManpowerGroup Chairman and CEO Jeff Joerres on Twitter: twitter.com/manpowergroupjj. Joerres is one of only sixFortune 500 CEOs who leverages a Twitter account to get his message out. 21
  • Manpower Services India Pvt. Ltd.Ground Floor, Tower AGlobal Business ParkMG Road, Gurgaon – 122002Haryana, IndiaTel: +91 (124) 4213640marketing@manpower.co.inwww.manpower.co.in© 2012, ManpowerGroup. All rights reserved. 22