'The Coming Crisis' is here Dr Ben Anderson
Contents <ul><li>What do we mean? </li></ul><ul><li>Why does it matter? </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul>...
'The Coming Crisis' <ul><li>The observation: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ proliferation of ‘social’ transactional data whic...
What do we mean? <ul><li>Transactional data </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Generated by everyday life </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><...
Where does (some of) it go? <ul><li>“ PayCheck  profiles all 1.6 million postcodes in the UK using information on over  4 ...
Why does it matter? <ul><li>Savage & Burrows saw a ‘crisis’ </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is sociology’s ‘edge’? [Differe...
Case studies <ul><li>BT 100,000 data </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>sample of 103,113 households covering all of the UK in 1995...
BT ‘100,000’ - spatial distributions <ul><li>Aggregated to  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>OAs  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Datazone...
BT ‘100,000’ - deprivation distributions <ul><li>England data only (n = 32,482 LSOAs of which 1,743 contained at least one...
Are deprivation and communication linked? <ul><li>Household level, highest 10% of ‘Localness’ (outliers) removed - predomi...
Are deprivation and communication linked? <ul><li>‘ Localness’ </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio of national to local calls (= local...
Are deprivation and communication linked? <ul><li>‘ Localness’ </li></ul><ul><li>Area level regression  </li></ul><ul><li>...
Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>BT “100,000” data – sample of 103,113 households covering all of the UK in 1995 <...
Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>BT “100,000” data – sample of 103,113 households covering all of the UK in 1995 <...
<ul><li>BT “Home OnLine Panel” households </li></ul>Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>Sundays: </li></ul><ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>Duration of calls… </li></ul>Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>BT “Home Online Panel” data – 1999/2000 exce...
Visualising social interactions <ul><li>BT “Home Online Panel” data – 1999/2000 excerpt </li></ul><ul><li>All called numbe...
What else could we ask? <ul><li>Household composition & communication practices? </li></ul>
What else could we ask? <ul><li>Household composition & network structure? </li></ul>Household transition
The future? Data Triangulation Observational and qualitative methods Survey methods Tracking, tracing and logging methods
Want to join in? <ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>All mentioned datasets are available for further research…! </l...
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The Coming Crisis is here!

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Talk given at University of Essex Sociology Dept's Graduate Conference 2011 exploring some of the data that provoked Savage & Burrows' 2007 paper in Sociology (soc.sagepub.com/content/41/5/885.abstract).

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  • Academic – polarisation, neighborhood effects etc Politically – local income tax? Who would be affected &amp; where?
  • Old ones - such as Networks, place, space and social capital? Consumption, leisure and class? New ones: Software &amp; social stratification
  • Instead of aggregating to LSOA level, this is household level Same story dominance of local calls % local calls increases as deprivation increases
  • Same story dominance of local calls % local calls increases as deprivation increases
  • Contributes to triangulation – greater ‘transparency’ – no lies, no forgetfulness, no social construction EXCEPT in the coding/inerpretation of the data during analysis (“are they doing what we think they are doing?”) sociology, anthropology, administration, public policies, psychology, economics, public health... Maybe the most real picture of 21 st Century society?
  • The Coming Crisis is here!

    1. 1. 'The Coming Crisis' is here Dr Ben Anderson
    2. 2. Contents <ul><li>What do we mean? </li></ul><ul><li>Why does it matter? </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>‘ 100,000’ households call records </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Home OnLine Panel study </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainable Practices Water study </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Discussion </li></ul>
    3. 3. 'The Coming Crisis' <ul><li>The observation: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ proliferation of ‘social’ transactional data which are now routinely collected, processed and analysed by a wide variety of private and public institutions.&quot; </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>One conclusion: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;both the sample survey and the in-depth interview are increasingly dated research methods, which are unlikely to provide a robust base for the jurisdiction of empirical sociologists in coming decades.” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Mike Savage & Roger Burrows, 2007 </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ The Coming Crisis of Empirical Sociology”, Sociology 2007; 41; 885 </li></ul></ul></ul>
    4. 4. What do we mean? <ul><li>Transactional data </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Generated by everyday life </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Automatically captured as part of ‘business as usual’ </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>N = millions (billions) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Yours but also not yours! </li></ul>
    5. 5. Where does (some of) it go? <ul><li>“ PayCheck profiles all 1.6 million postcodes in the UK using information on over 4 million households from lifestyle surveys and Census and Market Research data. It is available as a mean, median and mode figure for each postcode or as a PayCheck type. </li></ul><ul><li>PayCheck can be used for: </li></ul><ul><li>Selecting names and addresses from the Ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Coding up customer records for profiling or campaign selections </li></ul><ul><li>Profiling to understand how your customer group compares to the rest of the UK population” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Mosaic UK classifies consumers by household or postcode , allowing you to optimise the use of the segmentation depending upon the application. </li></ul><ul><li>46% of the data used to build Mosaic is non-Census sourced information that is updated annually. This enables Mosaic to monitor changes in consumer behaviour and incorporate these each year within the classification. </li></ul><ul><li>Mosaic UK is validated by a comprehensive programme of fieldwork and observational research covering each of the UK's 120 postal areas.” </li></ul>Dissagregation and identification is the point!
    6. 6. Why does it matter? <ul><li>Savage & Burrows saw a ‘crisis’ </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is sociology’s ‘edge’? [Differentiator/USP/Claim] </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is sociology’s (empirical) role? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Towards a ‘politics of method’? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>But we see opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>A 21 st Century Sociology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Empirical resources with which to revisit old questions </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>And to ask new questions </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>A Practical Sociology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Underpinning a 21 st Century Analytics Industry </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>An Industrial Sociology where data provenance is key? </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    7. 7. Case studies <ul><li>BT 100,000 data </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>sample of 103,113 households covering all of the UK in 1995 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All outgoing billable calls recorded for the months of October 1995, March 1996, October 1996, March 1997, October 1997, March 1998 - c 8 million calls per month </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Linked to Customer data – postcode, billing flags, ACORN code </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>BT/Essex Home OnLine household panel </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>representative sample of 1000 households covering all of GB in 1998 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>3 wave household panel survey (1998/1999/2000) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All incoming & outgoing billable calls recorded for 423 of the 1000 households who i) were BT customers and 2) gave consent for linkage to survey </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Sustainable Practices Water Survey </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Survey of 1,200 households (2011) across south & east England </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Linked to water meter data </li></ul></ul></ul>
    8. 8. BT ‘100,000’ - spatial distributions <ul><li>Aggregated to </li></ul><ul><ul><li>OAs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Datazones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LSOA (Eng & Wales) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SOA (NI) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Datazone (Scotland) </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. BT ‘100,000’ - deprivation distributions <ul><li>England data only (n = 32,482 LSOAs of which 1,743 contained at least one sampled number and 593 contained over 33 or 7.5%) </li></ul><ul><li>70,195 households/numbers (unfiltered), 51,118 (filtered) </li></ul><ul><li>Households located via postcode into index of deprivation areas </li></ul><ul><li>Tend to have fewer at the margins, especially in the most deprived areas. </li></ul>
    10. 10. Are deprivation and communication linked? <ul><li>Household level, highest 10% of ‘Localness’ (outliers) removed - predominantly in Wales & Northern Ireland </li></ul><ul><li>March 1998, All = 78,127 ‘households’ (11,737 made no local calls and 30,894 made no national calls), England = 50,971 ‘households’ </li></ul><ul><li>IMD 2004 (2001 data) </li></ul><ul><li>*Local call = same dialing code area; Regional calls ~= between GORs. Not geographic distance. </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Localness’ </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio of national to local calls (= local*/national) </li></ul>
    11. 11. Are deprivation and communication linked? <ul><li>‘ Localness’ </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio of national to local calls (= local*/national) </li></ul><ul><li>LSOA level </li></ul><ul><li>March 1998, England data only, filtered (593 LSOAs, 3.7M calls) </li></ul><ul><li>calls ~= Government Office Region (GOR); National IMD 2004 (2001 data) </li></ul><ul><li>Ratio = local/national </li></ul><ul><li>*Local call = same dialing code area; Regional calls ~= between GORs. Not geographic distance. </li></ul><ul><li>IMD 2004 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Employment score </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>R = 0.53 </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
    12. 12. Are deprivation and communication linked? <ul><li>‘ Localness’ </li></ul><ul><li>Area level regression </li></ul><ul><li>r 2 = 0.64 </li></ul><ul><li>LSOA level, GORs included as dummies </li></ul><ul><li>March 1998, England data only, filtered (593 LSOAs, 3.7M calls) </li></ul><ul><li>IMD 2004 (2001 data) </li></ul><ul><li>LSOA level OLS regression using Census 2001 and IMD 2004 (2001 data) </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
    13. 13. Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>BT “100,000” data – sample of 103,113 households covering all of the UK in 1995 </li></ul><ul><li>October 1995 call data (7,935,195 calls) </li></ul><ul><li>Why? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Habits & rhythms of life… </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What’s all this about? </li></ul></ul></ul>
    14. 14. Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>BT “100,000” data – sample of 103,113 households covering all of the UK in 1995 </li></ul><ul><li>Local calls = n/10 </li></ul><ul><li>October 1995 data (7,935,195 calls) </li></ul>
    15. 15. <ul><li>BT “Home OnLine Panel” households </li></ul>Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>Sundays: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Longer calls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fewer calls </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But what’s this? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A data blip! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>BT “Home OnLine Panel” data (423 households) </li></ul><ul><li>January - April 2000 </li></ul>
    16. 16. <ul><li>Duration of calls… </li></ul>Analysing temporal communication <ul><li>BT “Home Online Panel” data – 1999/2000 excerpt </li></ul><ul><li>Autocorrelation analysis: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Every 7 th day is similar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>weekly autocorrelation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Every 14 th day is similar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>fortnightly autocorrelation even after allowing for weekly autocorrelation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Humans are creatures of localised habit! </li></ul>
    17. 17. Visualising social interactions <ul><li>BT “Home Online Panel” data – 1999/2000 excerpt </li></ul><ul><li>All called numbers </li></ul><ul><li>All calls </li></ul><ul><li>Clusters of calls to the same number </li></ul><ul><li>Some of our panel households know each other! </li></ul>
    18. 18. What else could we ask? <ul><li>Household composition & communication practices? </li></ul>
    19. 19. What else could we ask? <ul><li>Household composition & network structure? </li></ul>Household transition
    20. 20. The future? Data Triangulation Observational and qualitative methods Survey methods Tracking, tracing and logging methods
    21. 21. Want to join in? <ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>All mentioned datasets are available for further research…! </li></ul><ul><li>Savage & Burrows: http://soc. sagepub .com/cgi/content/abstract/41/5/885 (Sociology 41 no 5) </li></ul><ul><li>Radical data: http://www. ccsr .ac. uk/methods/events/RadicalData/Programme . htm </li></ul><ul><li>Home OnLine (no call records): http://www.data-archive.ac. uk/findingdata/snDescription .asp? sn=4607 </li></ul>

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