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Ricardo presentation to ukti event bilbao 28 02_2012 final
 

Ricardo presentation to ukti event bilbao 28 02_2012 final

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    Ricardo presentation to ukti event bilbao 28 02_2012 final Ricardo presentation to ukti event bilbao 28 02_2012 final Presentation Transcript

    • Ricardo plcPresentation to UKTI - Offshore Wind & Marine Energy Workshop“Introduction to Ricardo Design and Innovation Capabilities”28th February 2012 www.ricardo.com © Ricardo plc 2012
    • Ricardo OverviewRicardo delivers world class strategy, engineering and technology programmes to the globalautomotive, transportation, defence and energy industries Company Positioning  Established in 1915 and independent  £196.5 million revenue (FY 10/11), up 21% £162.8 million revenue (FY 09/10)  More than 1.600 employees with more than 1.300 technically qualified and engineering staff  Global presence in 16 locations Global Presence Ricardo supports the full Clean Energy systems product lifecycle © Ricardo plc 2012 2
    • Three dimensional Ricardo Core Business ModelMarket Sectors provide domain expertise and ensure relevance, Product Groups provide deepcontent technology and delivery from world class global engineering teams based around the globe © Ricardo plc 2012 3
    • Ricardo provides technical and strategic support to project deliveryacross all major Clean Energy technical sectors Wind Power references Regional price differences can be significant mainly due to different cost for total project development and technical solutions BEFORE FINANCIAL CRISIS IMPACT Regional price differences [€/kW] Comments 2000 €/kW Project costs or add. project costs  The average total cost per kW of installed wind power 1800 Turbine system capacity differs between countries up to 100% due to 1573 significant cost differences for project development 1302 307 1289 275 1300 1262 1250 305 1217 800 1210 500 272 1121 1100 1100 1088 and application of different technologies 980  The cost per installed wind power typically varies from around 1000 €/kW (DEN) to 2000 €/kW (IRE) and 1300 1200 1146 1025 averages at 1300 €/kW 982 912 845 849  Turbine system costs varies between 850 €/kW (DEN Wind Power references & USA) and 1300 €/kW (ITA) and averages at 1000 MEX ITA JPN IRE DEN NED NOR GER POR CH CAN GRE USA ESP UK €/kW Due to the difference in market penetration,it is important to Source: IEA, 2006 & 2007  Few numbers have been reported for Sweden Turbine versus project and TCO costs manufacturers to be first movers with large projects there Strategic BEFORE FINANCIAL % of turbine  Turbine system costs generally include nacelle, tower, CRISIS IMPACT system costs ~185% Windblades, internal electrical system, transport and rotor market categorisation, 2007 erection (100%) ~130% 55 O&M  Embryonic Project costs generally include costs for the turbine Growing Mature Wind Energy Project 100% 30 30 system plus land & land development, foundation & * Denmark development Technical wind potential * Austria (3GW) Installed capacity vs. Turbine civil works, electrical connection, control systems, EUROPE 100 100 100 W) consultancy and finance (+ appr. 30%) (57G system  Total costs of ownership (TCO) include project costs * Germany Consulting Total cost (22GW) Turbine Project system costs of ownership plus operations and maintenance over the lifecycle ) * Spain W * Portugal (15GW) * Netherlands A (ex. Works) (TCO) time (+ appr. 55%) (16G Source: Ricardo estimation EAST IA RIC AFRICA & MIDDLE AS India * (8GW) * UK (2GW) TH AME NOR W) RD.08/12354.1 (0,5GW) © Ricardo plc 2008 28 (18G * Poland * Norway Systems Japan * Iran * Egypt * South Rest of *Greece Sweden * Italy * Belgium * USA * * Ireland (16GW) * Marocco Korea * Taiwan * Europe * China *(0,7GW) * France * Canada (2GW) (6GW) Time Market  Market characterized by high  Competition is heating up for  Due to experience, the service situation growth rates, coming from a available manufacturer capacity market is more competitive (OEM low basis  Shortfall of supply for essential service provider, ISPs, in-house components, technology issues service departments)  Some mature markets already display scarcity of good wind sites SKAB’s Long-term these markets will Upward pressure on WTG and SKAB can profit from supplier’s implications eventually pick up O&M service prices due to experience curve effects having demand-supply mismatch. installed WTG in similar Sweden is considered to be topographies investment grade country with double digit growth driven by political will Source: Ricardo Research, F&S 2007, GWEC 2008 RD.08/12354.1 © Ricardo plc 2008 22 Marine Energy Solar Energy Engineering Systems RICARDO Fuel Cell Engineering CHP Engineering Energy Storage © Ricardo plc 2012 4
    • Commercially - Ricardo’s Market strength can help clients developexport products and overseas customer links and facilities Ricardo can help customers by:  Promoting overseas links to key business contacts for export sales  Assistance in developing links in other markets, e.g. new European Offshore Wind markets  Technical centre support and assistance to set- up facilities and provide interim office space  Supply chain development and management  Support to gain public sector funding  Links to testing facilities and management  Support to obtain certification (GL, DNV, TUV) required for bank financing / warranties Ricardo are already doing this for major wind turbine manufacturers © Ricardo plc 2012 5
    • Technically - Ricardo’s strength in engineering and innovation canhelp customers develop advanced products for the global market Ricardo can help companies by:  Helping manufacturers develop their “own designs” rather than rely on licencing  Design technology advantages (performance, mass reduction and reliability) into new and next-generation products  Driving down the Cost of Energy through reliability, performance and life-cycle 3.5MW 3-stage epicyclic gearbox (lower engineering and innovation improvements mass, higher reliability)  Analysing “through-life” performance and 10MW Variable Ratio Driveline 1:125 +/- 5% Four 2.5MW Generators identifying improvement areas 1:20 Compound Variable Ratio Stage Epicyclic “Torque Only” coupling Ricardo are already doing this for major wind and marine energy manufacturers and drivetrain suppliers in many regions als 2010 Jon Whe Accumulators 10MW variable ratio split-path drivetrain (lower mass, higher reliability) © Ricardo plc 2012 6
    • Ricardo drivetrain development process and Ricardo software, caninclude client participation, software licencing and training.• Generate timeseries/LDD for clientturbine design• Verification ofclient supplied timeseries/LDD data © Ricardo plc 2012 7
    • Drivetrain Design ApproachDesign Optimisation Examples Design Optimisation ProcessRicardo has extensive experience of structural designoptimisation applied across many disciplines: Design Wind Turbine Gearbox Housing Space – 33% improvement in weight for a given stiffness Topology – Improvement used to achieve greater stiffness - Optimisation Housing deflection reduced by 42% with only 7% increase in component mass Detail – Factors of safety against extreme loading Design maintained – Complete turnkey task achieved including, design analysis, models, drawings and reports in 7 weeks Carrier intelligent design – Topology optimisation combined with design for manufacture and assembly gives Ricardo more novel solutions with significantly reduced weight – Example of a cast iron design with an original design weighing 2350kg. This was redesigned with a 3% reduction in torsional stiffness and weight reduced to 1600kg – a saving of 750kg or 32%. © Ricardo plc 2012 8
    • Drivetrain / Power Take-Off Design ApproachDesign for Manufacture, Assembly and Maintenance/ServiceRicardo can apply leading edge Design for Manufacture processes to reduce both production andwarranty cost Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) – Alternative process selection – Process complexity reduction – Product simplification and design for serviceability – Part count/cost reduction – Assembly/Service complexity reduction – Virtual build in 3D CAD to optimise design for assembly Design for Maintenance/Service – Reliability prediction to identify key features for maintenance e.g. Access to planet gears and flex pins for ease of replacement – Consideration of nacelle handling facilities and space – Consideration of design features and tools to support the ‘in nacelle’ environment Benefits of application in Design Phase: – Reduced risk of manufacturing/assembly issues – Improved confidence in ‘right first time’ design – Improved serviceability/in nacelle maintenance – Reduced warranty © Ricardo plc 2012 9
    • Case Study RSC procurement support of 120 wind turbines with a total invest of mio€ ~310 for WTG + O&M saved the client more than mio€ 60 Six Step Approach to Procurement Approach Baseline Definition Supplier Market Analysis Preparation of RFQ Analysis of Quotes Negotiation s Implemen- tation  Ricardo managed the whole procurement process  Procurement scope – Turbines,  Supplier market structure analysis  Develop procure- ment strategy   Collect quotes Analyse offers  Develop negotiation strategy (e.g. cadence  Project implementation management  Ricardo Six-step Approach to Procurement applied – strategy) – Project office – Detailed supplier market analysis O&M, Project Developers  Detailed analysis of – Price development – Manufacturer demand side  1st round of – Issue manage- – Quality ment – Turbine size? – 1./2.-tier – Technical spec. negotiations  Integrate offers into – etc. – Technology? suppliers – Commercial databases  Assessment Interface management – Evaluation of technology along product life cycle  Supplier analysis:   Business case spec.  2nd round of neg.  Financing (EU Strengths, weak-  Generator Create long list of pot.  Generate short list  On site excursion of – – Investor subsidies?) nesses, opportuni-ties & threats of each Gearbox suppliers  Schedule first round of negotiations with supplier facilities – Grid operator Contractors  Project & milestone  Decide on selection  Decision about – Authorities supplier (SWOT) short listed Activities  planning Clarification of readiness for project  Price analysis (price benchmark-ing for wind farms)  criteria Prepare request for quotes (RFQ) candidates  preferred supplier(s) 3rd and final negotiation with  – etc. Project & supplier performance tracking  Definition of the client requirements implementation preferred supplier(s) – Make or buy analysis along value-chain  Cost analysis  Ensure compliance  Supplier management – Permissions with legal – Price & payment  Budget/cost controlling – breakdown on – Location requirements – Delivery compon. selection  Send out RFQs schedule – Total cost of – Technical and commercial requirements – Grid – Frame contract connectivity ownership  Converter Draft frame contract – O&M Control system – Service parts   Clear project scope Infrastructural &  Supplier market transparency   Proc. Strategy Selection criteria   Short list of suppliers Negotiation schedule  Preferred supplier selected  Successful, in-time project  Definition of RfQ, negotiation strategy, supplier nomination, negotiations, factory inspections Results commercial  Basic price- and cost  Supplier long list  Frame contract signed implementation prerequisites clarified transparency  RFQ finalised  Ricardo led supplier negotiations/selection Situation and objective Results and benefits  Utility client with ambitious plans in wind energy and  Good transparency of the supplier market with secured finance backing from own balance sheet strengths and weaknesses by key player & market  Determined to utilise the financial downturn for  Simple RFQ with functional specifications: 16 procurement of large number of wind turbines suppliers invited, 13 offers received from well  Client has little experience in procurement of wind balanced mix of tenderers (low cost & high value; turbines and the quality track records and cost levels direct drive & conventional; US, European & Asian) for larger turbines (2-3 MW)  Four selection gates with 30%+ secured price  Objective of the project was to procure 118 onshore reductions for WTG and O&M before 2nd gate wind turbines rapidly at the right cost and with lowest  Duration of the total 3-phase project: ~12 monthsCS: 164 operational life cycle risk  Total savings from 1st offer to final contract: mio€ 60+ © Ricardo plc 2012 10
    • Case Study – 1.5MW WT drivetrain upgrade Ricardo role  Ricardo undertook design review of the overall drivetrain architecture and completed a concept design for a new layout  Ricardo completed detailed re-design and analysis of the main frame, main shaft and bearing systems  Ricardo liaised with the suppliers and teams responsible for hub, pitch system, loads and control, gearbox and generator to ensure a well-integrated overall drivetrain solution Situation and objective Results and benefits  Long-established WT manufacturer  New drivetrain layout delivered with optimised  Existing MW scale turbine already in production structure and weight  Potential for uprate identified by manufacturer  Turbine uprate is being enabled within the weight target required, to enable the uprated design to be  Larger rotor and improved pitch control also to be installed with the same equipment as the original implemented as part of overall upgrade for: design – Improved load control – Higher power production capability © Ricardo plc 2012 11
    • Case Study – Concept and Detailed Design of 1MW Tidal Turbine Ricardo role  Detailed CFD analysis for commercial demonstrator including flow assessment of blades and Venturi and linked to generator model for load/speed balance  Major loading input and boundary conditions predicted to simulate components operating within complete turbine system  FE Analysis of steel and composite structure including lifting frames for moving 1MW tidal turbine components during manufacture Situation and objective Results and benefits  Device development plan required for scale-up and  Concept optimisation of blade number, blockage and full size commercial demonstrator profile to achieve target performance  Design support for concept layout, configuration and  Identified concerns over Venturi and improved design of 1MW turbine design implemented for commercial demonstrator  Detailed flow assessment of complete turbine unit  Ricardo developed concept for hybrid blade design with individual models for blade design to optimise allowing manufacturing flexibility whilst retaining the hydrodynamic development and durability blade structural benefits of composite materials  Complete turbine model to assess manufacturing  Fatigue life prediction for frame using Ricardo process (12 major lift operations planned) and sea FEARCE software – showed base structure base structural loading and deformation performance acceptable for deployment © Ricardo plc 2012 12
    • Case Study – 15MW Wind Turbine Drivetrain Test-rig Development Ricardo role  Ricardo undertook concept design of gearbox for the testrig including application of advanced simulation tools to ensure robust design of core rig component  Ricardo supported definition of rig performance envelope to maximise potential applications within development cycle  Ricardo defined the requirements for the installation, commissioning and operation of the test-rig with the prototype hardware installed Situation and objective Results and benefits  Design and development drivetrain testrig with  Ricardo provided support for engineering wind partners for testing offshore WTG drivetrain under industry requirements and test and development highly dynamic operating conditions application into the design of the testrig ensuring the  Development of operational and test strategy for rig would be able to meet current and future incorporation of advanced test facilities in the WTG requirements and represent value in the engineering development cycle process  Current status is definitive design phase of rig  Combined approach with Ricardo integrated into completed ready to progress to detailed design and programme provided key application and operational procurement of long lead hardware experience © Ricardo plc 2012 13
    • Schematic of detailed CoE Model developed by Ricardo to guide &prioritise turbine design innovation activities Wind distributions Wind Weibull distribution % Wind Weibull distribution in hrs 0.1 0.09 900 1600000 800 0.08 700 0.07 0.06 600 1400000 500 13 c€/kWh Hours / yr 0.05 % 400 0.04 8 c€/kWh 0.03 300 1200000 200 0.02 7 c€/kWh 100 0.01 ICC/a + O&M/a € 0 0 1000000 6 c€/kWh 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Wind speed Wind speed 5 c€/kWh 800000 4 c€/kWh 3 c€/kWh Scale and Wind Weibull 600000 COE Offshore Improved COE form factors Distribution 400000 200000 0 5000000 7000000 9000000 11000000 13000000 15000000 Annual Energy production (kWh/yr) Power Curve Levelized Cost of Energy Power Annual energy WT Power curve 3.5 3 2.5 Coefficient: 2 production Power MW 1.5 1 components Capacity 0.5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Wind speed efficiencies factor Annual Economic 1800 1600 Energy MWh/yr Levelized lifetime Total 1400 1200 Total costs Interest rate Energy MWh/yr 1000 800 600 Downtime 400 200 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 wind speed m/s Availability Total O&M Costs Initial Capital Scheduled Unscheduled Costs Occurrences O&M O&M Rotor Drive train, Nacelle Electrical system Machine rating Consumables Failure rates Rotor Radius Labour, Control system needs Downtimes + monitoring Hub height equipment needs Tower Other & Unknown -7.5 13 Balance of Rest of the Structural Module… -0.5 1.5 Tower Downtime Failure rates -2 3 -3 2.5 Gearbox -3 4.5 Rest of the Nacelle -1 0.5 Yaw System Rest of the Control Module… Control system Rest of the Rotor Module… -7 -6 -4.5 -4 3.5 4.5 7 10 station Blades -2 2 Pitch system -15.5 12.5 Rest of the Power Module… -7.5 8.8 Generator -10.5 12.5 Converter -15 15.5 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 © Ricardo plc 2012 14
    • Drivetrain innovation is a key focus area, but today drivetrainarchitectures vary widely, with different advantages & challenges. E.g. Hybrid and Torque Converters E.g. Fully Geared and Gearless Source: Ricardo Analysis; Aerodyn IQPC 2010 Paper; BHO 2011 DWOW Paper © Ricardo plc 2012 15
    • Ricardo believes Wind Energy sector can benefit from innovative“modular solutions” applicable to wide range of wind drivetrains Influence of Drivetrain Technology CoE factor Onshore Offshore Installed cost High Med High Design life High High O&M costs High V High Variable ratio and hybrid Turbine Med High V High drivetrain solutions Torque de-coupling availability Power curve Med Med Advanced condition Load sharing and monitoring systems bearing innovation with prediction of remaining useful life Torque truncation Advanced lubrication systems © Ricardo plc 2012 16
    • MultiLife History - Development Chronology, Support, Events, IPR Turbine 1 Gen1 SOP NWIP Project Y/N ? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Patent 1 Patent 2 Patent 3 Gen3 Design and Prototype Rig Test MultiLife Indexing Device (Gen3) © Ricardo plc 2012 17
    • In summary, Ricardo is ideally placed to address the Clean Energytechnology and market objectives over the short and long-term Ricardo has a tremendous track record of delivering innovation and product development from successful projects across a the Automotive, Defence and Clean Energy sectors. Customers can benefit from our ability to support the complete product development process and operational life-cycle: Ricardo supports  Detailed understanding of the market challenges, policy the full clean energy systems drivers and opportunities focussed on customer requirements product lifecycle  Engineering and innovation to drive down the Cost of Energy through reliability, performance and life-cycle improvements  Fast identification of engineering solutions, including “blue- skies” thinking where necessary  Acceleration of technology development, cost reduction and delivery programmes of new and next-generation products  Support to improve production processes, including design for manufacture, assembly and quality control  “Through-life” performance improvement, analysis and testing, including full test programme and rig design RICARDO © Ricardo plc 2012 18
    • Contact Details Ricardo UK Ltd Southam Road, Radford Semele Leamington Spa Warwickshire CV31 1FQ, UK Paul Jordan Market Sector Director - Clean Energy & Power Generation Mobile: +44 (0)7801 973 049 Phone: +44 (0)1926 477 676 Fax: +44 (0)1926 319 300 Paul.Jordan@ricardo.com www.ricardo.com © Ricardo plc 2012 19