Where does the Digital Landscape take us? Nov 11, 2009

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Presentation from the conference "The Digital Landscape"

Presentation from the conference "The Digital Landscape"

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  • 1. Where does the digital landscape take us? Björn Elmberg, Cybercom
  • 2. Agenda • 2 core drivers What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance • 6 observations Where are we now, what trends are emerging, what can we expect from 2009/2010 • 4 recommendations Some thoughts about the future
  • 3. Two core drivers
  • 4. ”Technology is shifting the power away from the editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control” Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
  • 5. ”Technology is shifting the power away from the editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control” Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
  • 6. Amaras law Technology People
  • 7. “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses” Henry Ford (July 30, 1863 – April 7, 1947) 2009-11-09 7 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 8. 2009-11-09 8 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 9. “Nearly 40% of consumers said they would buy a vehicle online [...] if that capability existed.” Cap Gemini, Cars Online 09/10 http://www.us.capgemini.com/DownloadLibrary/files/Capgemini_CarsOnline_1009.pdf 2009-11-09 9 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 10. 7 observations
  • 11. 1. Information overflow generates the need for context, structure and filtering
  • 12. The drivers behind improved context • Search engines – Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha • Aggregators and filters – Friendfeed, intelligent RSS readers, Tweetdeck • Personalization – When will aftonbladet.se become intelligent?
  • 13. 2. Integrity online – we are not acting coherently
  • 14. “You can make money without doing evil.” http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html
  • 15. • Gmail Stores, processes, and maintains all messages, Account activity, All Gchat conversations, Clicks • Google Toolbar All websites visited, Unique appl. ID, Sends 404s to Google • Google Calendar Name, language, all events (date, participants, comments) • YouTube User data, Videos uploaded, videos watched, Comments • Google Maps • Google Docs Number of logins, Actions taken, Storage usage, Clicks, All collaborators, All text, All images, All changes • Blogger • Google Reader • Google Wave • Google Finance User’s stocks, Amount of shares, time bought, Bought at price • Google Checkout Full legal name, Credit card number, expiration date, CVN • Google Desktop • Orkut Name, Gender, Age, Location, Occupation, Religion • Picasa Photos, all clicks • Google Health Doctors, Conditions, Prescriptions, Age, Sex, Race, Blood type, Weight, Allergies, Procedures • Google Voice • and of course… Google Search
  • 16. • Google-controlled web trackers are tracking users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about 88 per cent of almost 400,000 other domains (Analytics, AdSense, Doubleclick) • 46 of the top 50 websites share data with their affiliates http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/03/google_tracking_study/
  • 17. 3. ”Facebook is underhyped” http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
  • 18. www.compete.com 2009-11-08
  • 19. The world s most used website
  • 20. Facebook • Average user has 120 friends on the site • More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at least once each day • 6.7 billion people on the planet, 23.8 percent (about 1.6 billion) have Internet access • 8 percent regularly use Facebook. • 92 percent of Internet users have yet to discover it www.internetworldstats.com www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
  • 21. 4. ”Twitter is overhyped” http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
  • 22. The Hype ratio Site Swedish users Google-hits Hype-ratio (Swedish) Aftonbladet 3,8 miljoner (unika/v) 3,28 miljoner 0,86 Facebook 2,4 miljoner 12,3 miljoner 5,13 Bilddagboken 1,2 miljoner (unika/v) 1,95 miljoner 1,63 Youtube 3,2 miljoner (unika/v) 4,6 miljoner 1,44 Twitter 37 500 9,9 miljoner 264 http://www.digitalkommunikation.se 2009-08
  • 23. ” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the attributes of a fad, including the one that people like me don't get its appeal. It has risen quickly and it will fall quickly. It's this year's Second Life” Tom Davenport, April 9, 2009 http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/davenport/2009/04/is_twitter_for_serious_marketer.html
  • 24. www.compete.com 2009-11-08
  • 25. • 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only 60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one friend • 36% of tweets mention a user in the form ‘@user http://www.danah.org/papers/TweetTweetRetweet.pdf • 51% of people with Twitter accounts don't use it once a month http://www.businessinsider.com/51-of-twitter-members-use-the-site-less-than-once-a- month-clip-2009-5 • Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user is one • The top 10% of Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/06/new_twitter_research_men_follo.html
  • 26. Twitter is a broadcasting channel
  • 27. 5. Increased metric focus decrease online brand building
  • 28. Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half John Wanamaker, 1838 – 1922
  • 29. From display advertising to action- driven advertising • Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online advertising spending in 2009, while display ads will account for just 21 percent • Internet advertising in Sweden is expected to drop during 2009, whereas Search Engine Marketing is expected to increase with 12 percent • Companies seek direct conversion rather than branding when the marketing spend gets squeezed http://www.emarketer.com 2009-06-17 http://www.irm-media.se/ 2009-06-17
  • 30. • You optimize what you measure • It is difficult to measure brand value • Brand value is long-term, metrics are often short- term • Improved user experience can often drastically improve brand attitudes
  • 31. 6. The risk aversive conformity disease
  • 32. How many music and appstores can you spot?
  • 33. Opportunities and recommendations
  • 34. Information overflow generates the need for context, structure and filtering Integrity online – we are not acting coherently Respect, help and listen to your audience
  • 35. 2009-11-09 40 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 36. 2009-11-09 41 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 37. 2009-11-09 42 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 38. Facebook is underhyped Twitter is overhyped Be flexible
  • 39. “It is not the strongest of the species that will survive, or the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change” Charles Darwin
  • 40. The risk aversive conformity disease Increased metric focus decrease online brand building Dare to be different
  • 41. 2009-11-09 46 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 42. 2009-11-09 47 e.g. name of the presenter
  • 43. Finally : Focus on business value and all else will follow
  • 44. Reality check • 38% of the Swedish population do not use Internet on a daily basis • 20% of the Swedish population never use the Internet • 82% of the mobile phone users do not use mobile Internet • 63% of the Internet users never read blogs ”Svenskarna och Internet 2009”, http://www.wii.se
  • 45. Thank you bjorn.elmberg@cybercom.com +46-70-915 31 82 www.twitter.com/elmberg www.slideshare.net/belm