Some online drivers,
observations & predictions


Björn Elmberg, Cybercom, August 2009
Agenda

• 2 core drivers
  What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance

• 7 highly personal observations
  Where ar...
Two core drivers
”Technology is shifting the power away from the
     editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
         elite....
”Technology is shifting the power away from the
     editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media
         elite....
Amaras law

    Technology        People




                 We don’t like change. Technology has the
                 in...
People are in control

 •   Dell hell -> Dell Idea storm
 •   Social media
 •   Freeconomics
 •   Long tail
 •   Folksonom...
7 observations
1.

Web 3.0 is about context, structure
and filtering (but not about
metadata)
The drivers behind web 3.0

• Search engines (Improved context)
  – Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha
• Aggregators and filters
...
The semantic web is utopian



We will never be able to agree on one, common
framework for categorizing Internet content.
...
2.

Augmented reality. Our digital and
real worlds are merging
2009-09-21   18   e.g. name of the presenter
2009-09-21   20   e.g. name of the presenter
3.

Integrity online – we are not acting
coherently
On one hand, we are really engaging ourselves for integrity and the
right to stay anonymous online…
“You can make money
 without doing evil.”



          http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html
…on the other hand we happily provide Google with information about
where we surf, what we mail, what we search etc etc. A...
• Gmail
• Google Wave
• Google Calendar
• YouTube
• Google Maps
• Google Docs
• Blogger
• Google Reader
• and of course… G...
• Google-controlled web trackers are tracking
  users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about
  88 per cent of almost 4...
Google Research has developed a prototype system that
uses a home computer’s microphone to:

•   listen to the ambient aud...
4.

”Facebook is underhyped”




                  http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
www.compete.com 2009-09-10
www.compete.com 2009-09-10
The world s most used website
Facebook

• Average user has 120 friends on the site
• More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at
  least once each...
5.

”Twitter is overhyped”




http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the
attributes of a fad, including the one that people like
  me don't get ...
• 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only
  60 to 65% of other online social networks' member...
Twitter is a broadcasting channel
6.

Increased metric focus decrease
online brand building
Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the
trouble is I don’t know which half



                             Jo...
From display advertising to action-
driven advertising


• Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online
  advertisin...
•   You optimize what you measure
•   It is difficult to measure brand value
•   Brand value is long-term, metrics are oft...
7.

The risk aversive conformity
disease
How many music and appstores can you
spot?
Schibsted                      Bonnier
• Viktklubb                    • GI Viktkoll
• Tv.nu                        • Tv-pl...
Summary

1. Web 3.0 is about context, structure and filtering
2. Integrity online – we are not acting coherently
3. Augmen...
Outlook and speculations
Advertising


Editorial and commercial content will become
increasingly blended and difficult to separate

  –   To attrac...
Brand advertising


There will be some kind of new advertising model not
yet invented

  – Performance-based, but less tie...
Conformity disease

An opportunity lies for those who dare to be
different, to stand out

 –   Limited economies of scale
...
Augmented reality


Applications that help to seamlessly integrate
our online and offline lives will be initially hyped
an...
bjorn.elmberg@cybercomgroup.com
+46-70-915 31 82
Online Trends August 2009
Online Trends August 2009
Online Trends August 2009
Online Trends August 2009
Online Trends August 2009
Online Trends August 2009
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Online Trends August 2009

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Online Trends August 2009

  1. 1. Some online drivers, observations & predictions Björn Elmberg, Cybercom, August 2009
  2. 2. Agenda • 2 core drivers What’s behind Internet’s ever growing significance • 7 highly personal observations Where are we now, what trends are emerging, what can we expect from 2009/2010 • 3 predictions Some thoughts about the future
  3. 3. Two core drivers
  4. 4. ”Technology is shifting the power away from the editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control” Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
  5. 5. ”Technology is shifting the power away from the editors, the publishers, the establishment, the media elite. Now, it’s the people who are in control” Rupert Murdoch, Wired Magazine 2006
  6. 6. Amaras law Technology People We don’t like change. Technology has the initiative. But the people make the momentum
  7. 7. People are in control • Dell hell -> Dell Idea storm • Social media • Freeconomics • Long tail • Folksonomy • Brands on AdWords – open for everyone* Advertising Age 2009-05-14
  8. 8. 7 observations
  9. 9. 1. Web 3.0 is about context, structure and filtering (but not about metadata)
  10. 10. The drivers behind web 3.0 • Search engines (Improved context) – Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha • Aggregators and filters – Friendfeed, intelligent RSS readers, Tweetdeck • Personalization – When will aftonbladet.se become intelligent?
  11. 11. The semantic web is utopian We will never be able to agree on one, common framework for categorizing Internet content. And we will not be thorough enough to categorize everything. Always. Thank god for search engines
  12. 12. 2. Augmented reality. Our digital and real worlds are merging
  13. 13. 2009-09-21 18 e.g. name of the presenter
  14. 14. 2009-09-21 20 e.g. name of the presenter
  15. 15. 3. Integrity online – we are not acting coherently
  16. 16. On one hand, we are really engaging ourselves for integrity and the right to stay anonymous online…
  17. 17. “You can make money without doing evil.” http://www.google.com/corporate/tenthings.html
  18. 18. …on the other hand we happily provide Google with information about where we surf, what we mail, what we search etc etc. And for every new content-related company Google buys we get happier.
  19. 19. • Gmail • Google Wave • Google Calendar • YouTube • Google Maps • Google Docs • Blogger • Google Reader • and of course… Google Search
  20. 20. • Google-controlled web trackers are tracking users on 92 of the net's top 100 sites and about 88 per cent of almost 400,000 other domains • 46 of the top 50 websites share data with their affiliates http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/06/03/google_tracking_study/
  21. 21. Google Research has developed a prototype system that uses a home computer’s microphone to: • listen to the ambient audio in a room, • determine what is being watched on TV • and offer web-based supplemental information, services and shopping contextual to each program being watched http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2006/06/interactive-tv- conference-and-best.html
  22. 22. 4. ”Facebook is underhyped” http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
  23. 23. www.compete.com 2009-09-10
  24. 24. www.compete.com 2009-09-10
  25. 25. The world s most used website
  26. 26. Facebook • Average user has 120 friends on the site • More than 100 million users log on to Facebook at least once each day • 6.7 billion people on the planet, 23.8 percent (about 1.6 billion) have Internet access • 8 percent regularly use Facebook. • 92 percent of Internet users have yet to discover it www.internetworldstats.com www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics
  27. 27. 5. ”Twitter is overhyped” http://www.torstensson.com/weblog/2009/06/hype-cycle.html
  28. 28. ” Let's face it — Twitter is a fad. It has all the attributes of a fad, including the one that people like me don't get its appeal. It has risen quickly and it will fall quickly. It's this year's Second Life” Tom Davenport April 9, 2009
  29. 29. • 80% are followed by or follow at least one user. By comparison, only 60 to 65% of other online social networks' members had at least one friend • 36% of tweets mention a user in the form ‘@user http://www.danah.org/papers/TweetTweetRetweet.pdf • 51% of people with Twitter accounts don't use it once a month http://www.businessinsider.com/51-of-twitter-members-use-the-site-less-than-once-a- month-clip-2009-5 • Among Twitter users, the median number of lifetime tweets per user is one • The top 10% of Twitter users accounted for over 90% of tweets http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/cs/2009/06/new_twitter_research_men_follo.html
  30. 30. Twitter is a broadcasting channel
  31. 31. 6. Increased metric focus decrease online brand building
  32. 32. Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half John Wanamaker, 1838 – 1922
  33. 33. From display advertising to action- driven advertising • Search ads will represent 42 percent of all online advertising spending in 2009, while display ads will account for just 21 percent • Internet advertising in Sweden is expected to drop during 2009, whereas Search Engine Marketing is expected to increase with 12 percent • Companies seek direct conversion rather than branding when the marketing spend gets squeezed http://www.emarketer.com 2009-06-17 http://www.irm-media.se/ 2009-06-17
  34. 34. • You optimize what you measure • It is difficult to measure brand value • Brand value is long-term, metrics are often short- term • Improved user experience can often drastically improve brand attitudes
  35. 35. 7. The risk aversive conformity disease
  36. 36. How many music and appstores can you spot?
  37. 37. Schibsted Bonnier • Viktklubb • GI Viktkoll • Tv.nu • Tv-planeten • Tasteline • Recept.nu • E24.se • Va.se • Hitta.se • 118 100 • Destination.se/Resdagboken •?
  38. 38. Summary 1. Web 3.0 is about context, structure and filtering 2. Integrity online – we are not acting coherently 3. Augmented reality. Our digital and real worlds are merging 4. Facebook is underhyped 5. Twitter is overhyped 6. Metric focus decrease online brand building 7. The risk aversive conformity disease
  39. 39. Outlook and speculations
  40. 40. Advertising Editorial and commercial content will become increasingly blended and difficult to separate – To attract younger audiences – To increase ad revenues – May generate new legislations
  41. 41. Brand advertising There will be some kind of new advertising model not yet invented – Performance-based, but less tied to action and more towards brand impression and engagement – Pinstorm - A pure, pay-for-performance digital advertising firm. – VideoEgg – Cost per engagement
  42. 42. Conformity disease An opportunity lies for those who dare to be different, to stand out – Limited economies of scale – Attention economy increasingly valid – We want to be entertained – We live in exponential times, the viral effect is spreading and increasing, ”the viral long tail”
  43. 43. Augmented reality Applications that help to seamlessly integrate our online and offline lives will be initially hyped and then increasingly common
  44. 44. bjorn.elmberg@cybercomgroup.com +46-70-915 31 82

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