Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of

Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of Gaming Ben Cousins, EA Andreas Gursky – 99 Cent (1999)

Generic Personal Opinion Disclaimer The personal opinions of the presenter expressed during this talk do not necessarily state or reflect those of Electronic Arts and should not be interpreted in any way as representing current or future policies of that organization. Any attempt to reproduce opinions expressed during this talk as representative of Electronic Arts will be met by snorting disdain, elitist high-minded mocking and pedantic petty corrections.

Nostradamus

‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben Cousins, E3 2006

FAIL ‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben Cousins, E3 2006

”Future of games is :- • User Created Content • Data in the cloud, not local • Simple interfaces • Mass market content • Social Networking • Hyperlinks • Low system specs • Persistence, levelling” – Ben Cousins, Nordic Game 2007

„The Innovators Dilemma‟, Clayton M. Christensen

The Automobile and the Supermarket

Piggly Wiggly (est. 1916)

Horatio Nelson Jackson

„New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow

1919 From the Smithsonian Collection

King Kullen (est. 1930)

„New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow

• The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices • The new business model grew exponentially and took over

The Internet and the Videogame Tim Berners-Lee‟s first ever WWW server at CERN

Zzap 64 covers

• The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices • The new business model grew exponentially and took over

• The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience

• A new technology appeared and grew exponentially

• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Travian Halo Wars Metin 2 Assassin's Creed 2 Combat Modern Arms Warfare 2

• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Online Consumer Lower quality distribution price trends expectations cost falling to zero

• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Quality less Infinite shelf Less need to important to space/time ‘be noticed’ differentiate

• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Entry price Attention Higher zero span shorter convenience

120 100 80 Metacritic 60 40 20 0 Sales – Week 1+2

Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph

Accessibility Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph

New items, Accessibility payment methods Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph

New items, Accessibility payment methods Quality Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph

• Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products

• Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices "Social games, social network integration, mobile and portable games, a few you're hearing a lot about today, they're interesting and present brand development and marketing opportunities,” “[But] they remain characterized by unproven business models, a lot of clutter, and relatively low barriers to entry,”

• The new business model grew exponentially and took over

Firefox Elite vs Paradroid Gauntlet Forbidden Forest Operation Wolf

Arcade Home Outrun Gauntlet Ghouls and Ghosts

Arcade Home Commodore 64 Space Harrier Outrun Nintendo NES

House of the Dead £0.50 = 10 minutes Cost per hour = £3 Tomb Raider £40 = 25 hours Cost per hour = £1.60

PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion

PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion Console software, hardware Portable software, hardware PC software

PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion Air Hockey Console software, hardware Bulk Vending Portable software, hardware Cigarette Vending PC software Countertops/Touch Screens Cranes 8-Line Games Electronic Darts Foosball Full Line Vending General Business Jukeboxes Kiddie Rides Pinballs Pool Tables Redemption/Novelty Rotaries Shuffleboards Video Games Video Poker

Further reading The Innovator‟s Dilemma - Clayton M. Christensen Free – Chris Anderson Trade-Off – Kevin Maney bcousins@ea.com

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Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of

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