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Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of

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Can we expect as cataclysmic a power-shift in our industry as the US retail business experienced in the last century? This presentation uses the historical analogy of the rise of the supermarket in …

Can we expect as cataclysmic a power-shift in our industry as the US retail business experienced in the last century? This presentation uses the historical analogy of the rise of the supermarket in the post-automobile world to inform us about a possible future of the games industry. How did the technological revolution of the motor car create an increase in convenience and a reduction of the quality of the shopping experience for the average American, and how did that shift change the retail landscape in the US? How can we apply this and similar technology-driven business revolutions to our own rapidly changing industry as we react to the technological revolution of the internet?

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  • Great presentation on disruption on games. Love the parallels to consumer good + distribution changes.
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  • Spot on presentation on the shift happening in video games - packaged games are almost non-existent in developing markets and post-piracy markets like South Korea and China. US, Europe and Japan are next.
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  • 1. Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of Gaming Ben Cousins, EA Andreas Gursky – 99 Cent (1999)
  • 2. Generic Personal Opinion Disclaimer The personal opinions of the presenter expressed during this talk do not necessarily state or reflect those of Electronic Arts and should not be interpreted in any way as representing current or future policies of that organization. Any attempt to reproduce opinions expressed during this talk as representative of Electronic Arts will be met by snorting disdain, elitist high-minded mocking and pedantic petty corrections.
  • 3. Nostradamus
  • 4. ‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben Cousins, E3 2006
  • 5. FAIL ‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben Cousins, E3 2006
  • 6. ”Future of games is :- • User Created Content • Data in the cloud, not local • Simple interfaces • Mass market content • Social Networking • Hyperlinks • Low system specs • Persistence, levelling” – Ben Cousins, Nordic Game 2007
  • 7. ”Future of games is :- • User Created Content • Data in the cloud, not local • Simple interfaces • Mass market content • Social Networking • Hyperlinks • Low system specs • Persistence, levelling” – Ben Cousins, Nordic Game 2007
  • 8. „The Innovators Dilemma‟, Clayton M. Christensen
  • 9. The Automobile and the Supermarket
  • 10. Piggly Wiggly (est. 1916)
  • 11. Horatio Nelson Jackson
  • 12. „New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow
  • 13. 1919 From the Smithsonian Collection
  • 14. 1920 From the Smithsonian Collection
  • 15. 1947 From the Smithsonian Collection
  • 16. King Kullen (est. 1930)
  • 17. „New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow
  • 18. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices • The new business model grew exponentially and took over
  • 19. The Internet and the Videogame Tim Berners-Lee‟s first ever WWW server at CERN
  • 20. Zzap 64 covers
  • 21. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices • The new business model grew exponentially and took over
  • 22. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience
  • 23. • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially
  • 24. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Travian Halo Wars Metin 2 Assassin's Creed 2 Combat Modern Arms Warfare 2
  • 25. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Online Consumer Lower quality distribution price trends expectations cost falling to zero
  • 26. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Quality less Infinite shelf Less need to important to space/time ‘be noticed’ differentiate
  • 27. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Entry price Attention Higher zero span shorter convenience
  • 28. 120 100 80 Metacritic 60 40 20 0 Sales – Week 1+2
  • 29. Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  • 30. Accessibility Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  • 31. New items, Accessibility payment methods Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  • 32. New items, Accessibility payment methods Quality Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  • 33. • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products
  • 34. • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices "Social games, social network integration, mobile and portable games, a few you're hearing a lot about today, they're interesting and present brand development and marketing opportunities,” “[But] they remain characterized by unproven business models, a lot of clutter, and relatively low barriers to entry,”
  • 35. • The new business model grew exponentially and took over
  • 36. Firefox Elite vs Paradroid Gauntlet Forbidden Forest Operation Wolf
  • 37. Arcade Home Outrun Gauntlet Ghouls and Ghosts
  • 38. Arcade Home Commodore 64 Space Harrier Outrun Nintendo NES
  • 39. House of the Dead £0.50 = 10 minutes Cost per hour = £3 Tomb Raider £40 = 25 hours Cost per hour = £1.60
  • 40. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion
  • 41. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion Console software, hardware Portable software, hardware PC software
  • 42. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion Air Hockey Console software, hardware Bulk Vending Portable software, hardware Cigarette Vending PC software Countertops/Touch Screens Cranes 8-Line Games Electronic Darts Foosball Full Line Vending General Business Jukeboxes Kiddie Rides Pinballs Pool Tables Redemption/Novelty Rotaries Shuffleboards Video Games Video Poker
  • 43. Further reading The Innovator‟s Dilemma - Clayton M. Christensen Free – Chris Anderson Trade-Off – Kevin Maney bcousins@ea.com

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