05 june2013ezell uasi_nationalhls_2013


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National UASI and Homeland Security, June 2013

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  • This presentation describes two research projects that represent advances in all-hazards emergency planning and exercise support.  
    RtePM - Real Time Evacuation Planning Model was funded by DHS S&T to provide emergency managers an easy to use online tool to quickly estimate the time required to evacuate an area.  Initial RtePM development was completed by Johns Hopkins University APL.  The project was transitioned to VMASC in 2012.  VMASC made minor revisions to the initial program then completed enhancements to increase RtePM accuracy and flexibility.  VMASC also sponsored independent Verification and Validation testing which resulted in RtePM being endorsed for use in a wide variety of disaster scenarios for any location in US.  RtePM provides an on-line tool for rapidly estimating the time required to complete an evacuation in the event of both natural and man-caused disasters, including hurricanes, wildfires, flooding, hazardous material incidents, and acts of terrorism. Using the Internet and web browser, users select the area to be evacuated using geographic coordinates or simply selecting the area to be evacuated and destination points on an online map.  Once these are selected, US Population census and road network information are automatically retrieved for the area selected.
    SSEMRFT - Severe Storm Event Mitigation and Recovery Forecasting Tool provides insight into the impact of various catastrophic events (i.e., severe storms, IED, aerosol anthrax), identifies medically fragile and vulnerable populations at the neighborhood level, provides emergency planners the ability to forecast in near-real time the immediate, mid-term, and long-term impacts of the severe storm event, allows users to test ‘What if’ scenarios of pre-event mitigation and post-event response strategies, and estimates structural damage, evacuated populations & displaced populations healthcare needs and associated dollar costs.
  • Viewing the flow diagram from left to right:
    Users identify the evacuation area
    Population information is automatically ingested
    Users customize the population by adding (or subtracting) for changes and considering seasonal influences
    Users select participation rate (from 1% - 100%) and response rate (one hour increments, one to 72 hours)
    Passengers per vehicle (defaults to 2.5)

    Users select a second area, the outer boundaries of which define the minimum distance evacuees will go to (unless using a designated shelter). This selection automatically adds the road network.

    Users can weight evacuation routes and/destination points to force the simulation to assess known or expected use patterns.

    Moving to the top box in the middle, users can modify the road network to add or subtract lanes (including using the shoulder), modify travel speeds, use contraflow, etc.

    In the middle “RTEPM” block, users click on “calculate” to run the simulation.

    The analysis phase provides information on evacuees leaving each census zone, vehicle volumes (or densities) on all modeled roads, and arrival rates at destinations. These values are provided in one-hour increments. An animation feature augments the numerical results display.
  • 05 june2013ezell uasi_nationalhls_2013

    1. 1. Advances in Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis in Support of Emergency Management and Planning Presented By Barry Ezell 4-7 June 2013 National Homeland Security Conference – 2013 Los Angeles, California, United States of America Homeland Security Begins with Hometown Security VIRGINIA MODELING ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION CENTER
    2. 2. Overview  Presentation describes project that represent advances in all-hazards emergency planning and exercise support – Real time evacuation planning model: RtePM
    3. 3. Motivation  Limited M&S in support of local, regional, and State level emergency planning and management – Table top exercises – Evacuation planning – During an event  Grant funding decline and transition to hard funding  Personal experience, U.S. Army during drawdown 900K to 460K, 1992-2000
    4. 4. Live Virtual and Constructive Simulation Live Simulation and Training Virtual Simulation and Training 1992-2013 Post Iraq & Afghanistan Constructive Simulation and Training 1984 - 1991 On par or better than U.S. military Improving Poor 900K to 460K Base Realignment and Closure
    5. 5. Three down, one to go… AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2013. 11. Source: “Planning for a Deep Defense Drawdown—Part I,” Clark A. Murdock
    6. 6. Estimates vehicle traffic evacuation times in the event of a natural and man-made disasters. Behavioral Data Population Demographics (Customizable) Route Capacity Evacuation Routes Destinations (Customizable) User Entered Road Network Modifications Calculated Evacuation TimeRtePM # vehicles evacuating Network Information evacuation plan feedback for scenario analysis
    7. 7. RtePM Background  Originally funded by DHS Science & Technology  Initial prototype - Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and University of Maryland  Opportunity: State leadership sees value in emergency planners and managers ability to estimate vehicle traffic evacuation times in the event of a natural and man-made hazard event.  Technology transferred to Old Dominion University’s VMASC - August 2012 – Charge: bring to full operating capability; deploy to Commonwealth and Nation; begin training users; improve capability via stakeholder input – Validate the model so all may use with trust
    8. 8. Whole Community  RtePM helps to lead to a deeper understanding of the unique evacuation infrastructure challenges for a diverse community  Identify community evacuation capabilities and needs  Understand the real-life safety challenges to facilitate a more effective prevention, protection, mitigation, response, and recovery activities  RtePM supports PPD-8 Core Capabilities – Planning, Operational Coordination activities, Public Information, Critical Transportation, Infrastructures Systems, Situational Assessment, Community Resilience, etc.
    9. 9. Overview and Applications  RtePM – Online, GIS-based evacuation tool – Estimates evacuation clearance times from areas drawn on a map – Automatically ingests road network (NAVTEQ®) data and population data (US census) – Six steps with default settings or made more detailed with numerous user options  Applications – Large/medium/small scale evacuations – Natural disasters (hurricanes, wildfires, etc.) – Terrorists attacks (toxic gas, dirty bombs, etc.) – Nuclear Power Plant evacuation planning – Flood plans for dams – Hazardous materials incidents – Special events/sporting events with large crowds
    10. 10. RtePM Capabilities and Features  Capabilities – Vehicle evacuation time estimates – Deterministic or Probabilistic simulation results – Overlay plumes from HOTSPOT and Aloha models – Identify evacuation areas and affected roadways – Traffic model can identify probable areas of congestion and assess accident/incident impacts  Features – Shadow evacuations – Phased and multi-day evacuations – Varying response times and participation rates – Seasonal population changes – Road network modifications (closures, contraflow, etc.) – Shelter use, including refuges of last resort – Three background traffic levels – Four accident/incident levels
    11. 11. User Hardware and Software Requirements  Hardware – Basic Personal Computer (Apple®, PC, and Linux® acceptable) – Internet access (high speed broadband) – Mozilla Firefox® , Chrome® , Internet Explorer® , Safari® compatible – Adobe® Flash  Software – developed using free/open source software – Web based front end using ESRI ArcGIS API for Flex communicating to a Java J2EE back end – GeoServer as the GIS server – Postgres with geospatial extensions (PostGIS) as database
    12. 12. Key Considerations  Population: – Area to evacuate – Number of people (participation rate) – People per vehicle (defaults to 2.5, user selectable)  Road Network: – Road category (I.e. highway, major arterial, etc.) – Number of lanes – Length of road segment – Free-flow speed of road segment – Nodes where vehicles enter road network – Destination nodes for evacuation  Behavioral: – Participation rate – Response curve
    13. 13. Access and Sign in  http://rtepm.vmasc.odu.edu  Users can create a personal account or log in as a guest  Personal accounts have user created passwords and created scenarios are saved in a private folder (can be made public)  Guest scenarios are saved in a public folder
    14. 14. Demonstration Key points of contact – Mike Robinson (rmrobins@odu.edu) Peter Foytik (pfoytik@odu.edu)
    15. 15. Thank You Barry Ezell bezell@odu.edu 757.831.3632