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  • With apologies to Don McLean & American Pie.
  • 2MP camera for $1KIt’s non-traditional customers who are attracted to disruptive innovations because the product meets their needs.
  • iPhoto Version 1 is introduced.
  • With Disruptive Innovations, non-consumers are the sole customers in the beginning because the innovation meets their needs. Traditional customers are repulsed by the expense and primitive nature of the product. However, over time, quality increases while price decreases causing a tipping point. Eventually, the innovation replaces the original product.  The same is true with digital textbooks. Change is a process.
  • Declaration of Independence
  • Sigma 5 by Scientific Data Systems, later purchased by Xerox
  • What’s missing is that
  • If the current crop of online courses are also like Kodak's 1991 digital camera, who would subscribe to these resources? Online courses meet the needs of a variety of non-consumers. If you’re a student at a small high school who would like to take Mandarin as your world language requirement, it’s likely you wouldn’t find 30 similar students or a part-time, credentialed Mandarin teacher at your site. Perhaps you’re a student who needs an extra class or two to graduate, but your class schedule doesn’t match the times local classes are offered. You’d like to take AP Calculus, but your school doesn’t offer it. Or, maybe you’re home-schooled and your parents want to ensure you have access to challenging courses and opportunities to collaborate with other students. All of these options are cited by both Clayton Christensen in his book, Disrupting Class, and within The Sloan Consortium's report, K-12 Online Learning: A Survey of U.S. School Administrators, as current consumers of online learning courses.
  • Just as your district keeps tabs on content and instruction for each course, the same expectations should exist for online courses. How can you know that a course addresses all the content standards for a subject so that your students are prepared for state-mandated testing? Do you and your staff pilot each course and participate in all the activities so that you can verify the content standards and guarantee that a course meets California's social content review?
  • Graphic should be clickable.
  • Unlike digital photography, which destroyed or dismembered companies like Fuji, Polaroid, and Kodak, online courses won't put public education out of business. Instead, brick-and-mortar schools will focus not on the courses they'd rather not teach, but on courses they need to offer to their customers. Online courses and digital textbooks may be still developing, but their promise to provide customized learning opportunities that address each students needs and up-to-date content can not be ignored or denied. They are disruptive innovations that are revolutionizing learning.
  • http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/18/education/18classrooms.html?_r=1At Dr. Michael M. Krop Senior High School in Miami, there is no teacher in a classroom, but a "facilitator" watches the students.
  • With apologies to Don McLean & American Pie.

Transcript

  • 1. The Day Analog Died.
    Brian Bridges
    CLRN.org
  • 2. I know how Murdoch got into trouble.
  • 3. Let’s play, “Guess your password.”
  • 4. 1998
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 5. 1212
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 6. 2222
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 7. 0852
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 8. 5683
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 9. 5555
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 10. 1111
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 11. 2580
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 12. 0000
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 13. 1234
    10 Most Common Passwords.
  • 14. Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns
    Clayton Christensen and Michael Horn
  • 15. Disruptive Innovation Theory
    Customers’ needs tend to be stable
    Companies improve their products
    Most innovations improve products for current customers
    Some sustaining innovations represent dramatic breakthroughs
  • 16. Sustaining the Camera
  • 17. Disruptive Innovations…
    NOT a breakthrough improvement
    Existing customers can not utilize it
    And are not attracted to it
    Benefit “non consumers”
  • 18. The Disruptive Cycle
    Competing for non-consumers
    Technology improves / cost declines
    Compete for original customers
  • 19. Digital Cameras
    When was the digital camera invented?
  • 20. The Camera Disruption
    First digital camera by Kodak (1975)
    .01 megapixels
  • 21. The Camera Disruption
    First digital camera by Kodak (1975)
    .01 megapixels
    Kodak DCS 100 (1991)
    1 Megapixel for $13K
    Film still thrived
  • 22. 1999: 2MB Camera
  • 23. “The digital camera market just exploded this year.”
    And Kodak stock began a long slide down
    NY Times: Christmas, 2001
  • 24. Change is a Process
  • 25. Digital Books
    When was the first digital book created?
    1971
    Project Guttenberg
  • 26. The First e-book
    When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another,
  • 27. The First e-reader
  • 28. E-book Timeline
  • 29. Project Gutenberg
    www.gutenberg.org
    > 33K free e-books
    EPUB format (among others)
    July 2010: Amazon.com reports e-book sales have surpassed printed books.
  • 30. Change is a Process
  • 31. Textbook Deathwatch:
    The Digital Textbook Revolution
  • 32. Virginia
    Adopted CK-12 Physics book to supplement HS Physics book
  • 33. Texas: H.B. 4294
    Allows state to adopt electronic textbooks
    Textbook funds may be used to purchase technological equipment necessary to support electronic textbooks
  • 34. Texas H.B 4294
    eTextbook publishers may submit updated content for review
    Districts/schools may select a subscription-based electronic textbook
  • 35. TexasH.B. 2488
    Authorizes colleges or the state to develop open source textbooks for use in classrooms
  • 36. California Legislation
    AB 1398, relating to the use of textbook funds
    Redefines “technology-based materials” to include electronic equipment required to use them
  • 37. California Legislation
    SB 247 relating to high school textbook purchases
    Textbook funds may be used to purchase electronic versions
    Districts must ensure all students have access at home & school
  • 38. California Digital Textbook Initiative
    Phases 1 & 2: Free or Open Source
    Phase 3: Online & Interactive
    High School
    Math, Science, & History-Social Science
  • 39. Phase 1 page
  • 40. FDTI Results
  • 41. Three Directions for Digital Textbooks
  • 42. Flat & Linear Digital Books
  • 43. Comparing eReader Models
    Amazon Kindle Series
    B&N Nook
    Apple iPad
  • 44. Amazon Kindle
    Introduced November 2007
    Kindle 2, Feb 2009, $259
    Current Price: $114/$139
    Format: AZW (proprietary)
  • 45. B&N Nook
    Introduced 2009 @$259
    Current Price: $139
    Formats: ePub, PDF
  • 46. Apple iPad
    Introduced 2010 @ $499
    Format: DRM-enabled ePub
  • 47. Online, Interactive
  • 48. Renting Textbooks
  • 49. CourseSmart
  • 50. CourseSmart
    Macroeconomics
    List Price: $210
    Amazon: $110
    Kindle: $88
    CourseSmart: $58
  • 51. Rent Textbooks?
  • 52. Never!!!
  • 53. Really?You’ve been here before
    Discovery Streaming
    Learn 360
    Safari/Montage
  • 54. Oregon & Hawaii Just Did
    Discover Education Science for K-8
    Online, subscription-based
    Textbook, virtual labs, simulations, video clips, & assessments
  • 55. Digital Textbook
    Downloadable or readable online
    Professors have full edit rights
    Embed video, multimedia, & assessments
    Receive royalties
    Priced at 40% of retail
    Macmillan:DynamicBooks
  • 56. Ipad-Centric
  • 57. HMH FUSE Algebra I
    Interactive digital textbook
    Direct instruction,
    Support,
    assessment & intervention
    400 students / four district pilot
  • 58. Digital Textbooks: Next Stop?
    Electronic textbook = textbook - book
  • 59. Electronic Textbook
    Electronic Textbook = (Textbook – book) + streamed lecture clips + streaming video clips + interactive apps + multimeda + assessment + “live” links
  • 60. Benefit of Electronic/Interactive Resources
    Easily updated
    Student centric
    Address a variety of learning modalities
  • 61. Digital Textbook Growth
  • 62. Online Course Revolution
    Just as digital textbooks grew first in colleges, online course growth has preceded growth in K-12.
  • 63. Online Learning
    When were online courses invented?
  • 64. Online Correspondence
    1728
    Boston Gazette Ad
    Teacher seeking students with lessons mailed weekly
  • 65. A Long Evolution
    Correspondence Courses
    Distance Learning (satellite) courses
    Instructional Learning Systems
    1999: Florida Virtual School
  • 66. Online Course Growth
    Allan & Seaman/Sloan Consortium
    Class Differences: Online Education in the United States, 2010
  • 67. Students Learning Online
    2002: 1.6 million students
    9.6% of enrollment
    2005: 3.2 million students
    18% of enrollment
    2009: 5.6 million students
    29% of enrollment
    Online learning increases by 20% each year
  • 68. You see the train coming?
  • 69. 75% believe that online courses are as good or better than face-to-face instruction.
    60% of academic leaders believe that there is increasing competition for online students in higher education.
    Comparing Learning Outcomes
  • 70. Survey of Online Learning Preparedness, 2010
    Education Week/Blackboard
  • 71. Survey Demographics
    August 2010
    9400 responses, across all district sizes, and states
    18% from Superintendents and Asst. Superintendents
    12% from Directors of Curriculum or Instruction
  • 72. Students are NOT able to take all the courses they want.
    “lack of available staff”
  • 73. Students need personalized pacingStudents need more learning time outside school
  • 74. Students need additional or alternative credit recovery opportunities
  • 75. Your district meets students online learning needs
    Denial
  • 76. Your districts wants to deliver courses virtually
  • 77. Only non-consumers like the menu at the Disruptive Innovation restaurant
  • 78. Project Tomorrow
    Why are Students choosing online courses?
  • 79. Why are Students Choosing Online Courses?
    Earn college credit
    Work at my own pace
    Class not offered at my school
    Complete HS requirements
    Better fits my schedule
  • 80. Online Course Non-Consumers
    Orphan Courses
    AP anything / World languages
    Independent Study
    Credit Recovery
    College Credit
    Summer School
    Home School
  • 81. Disrupting Class @ Online Courses
    2013: Tipping point
    2019: 50% of all
  • 82. The US Market for Self-paced eLearning Products and Services: 2010-2015 Forecast and Analysis
    Ambient Insight
    Summary posted at T.H.E. Journal
  • 83. Product Substitution
    When consumers begin buying the disruption instead of the original product.
  • 84. 2010-2015 Growth
  • 85. How do you know if it’s any good?
  • 86. Self- Reviewing Resources
    Just like you do now for high school textbooks.
  • 87. CCSESA TTSC Survey
    Online Credit Recovery Programs
    August 2010
  • 88. Describe the Selection Process
    Vendor demonstrations
    Open bid to vendors
    Cost
  • 89. CLRN Online Course Reviews
    CLRN reviews HS ELA & Math courses
    Common Core and the original recipe standards.
    National standards for quality online courses
  • 90. Individual Course Review
  • 91. Who are the Players?
    From Keeping Pace 2010
  • 92. State Virtual Schools
    Run by a state education agency
    Offering individual courses
    State-wide reach
    Florida Virtual School & Michigan Virtual School
  • 93. Multi-District Full-Time Online Schools
    Charter or District Run
    Offering Full Time Courses
    State-wide Reach
    California Virtual Academy
    Flex Academies
    Connections Academy
  • 94. Single District Programs
    Run by a Single District
    Full Time or Supplemental
    Offering Courses only to District Students
  • 95. Commercial Players
    Florida Virtual School / Pearson
    K12.com
    Aventa, Kaplan, A+, …
    Connections Academy/Pearson
    Advanced Academics
    Plato
    Apex
    Odysseyware
    And on and on
  • 96. Florida Virtual School
    Founded 1997
    Internet-based public high school
    FLVS gets the ADA
    100 courses available to all students in Florida
    Licensed by Pearson in the other 49
  • 97. FLVS Growth Data
  • 98. K12.com Courses
    Math
    English
    History
    Science
    World Languages
    Electives
  • 99. K.12 Math Courses
    Math Foundations
    Algebra I & II
    Geometry
    Pre-Calculus/Trig
    AP Calculus
    AP Statistics
    Independent Study
    $30/month
    Teacher-supported
    $375/semester
  • 100. Virtual charter school
    10, district sponsored charter schools around CA.
    Curriculum provided by K12.com
    California Virtual Academy
  • 101. California’s Virtual Academies
    >50 CA Virtual Schools
    2010/11 enrollment: 20,000 students
    $120,000,000 ADA lost
  • 102. Will Online Courses Put K-12 Schools Out of Business?
  • 103. Stock Price
    January 1999 – January 2011
    The Kodak Slide
    1999: $63/share
    1/2002: iPhoto Released
    1/2011: $5.50/Share
    This could be the trend line for your ADA the next 12 years.
    92% decrease over 12 years
  • 104. Established vs. Disruptive
    Digital cameras destroyed Polaroid, Fuji, and nearly Kodak.
    Charter school competition.
    Online Schools- State-led Virtual Schools w/o boundaries.
  • 105. Disruptive in Florida
  • 106. 7K Students / No Teacher
    54 schools & 7,000 students
    Virtual Classrooms/e-learning labs
    40 students. One class “facilitator.”
    Curriculum from Florida Virtual School
  • 107. Play to your strengths
    But prepare for the future.
    What do you offer that online schools/courses can’t?
    Non-consumer students at your school
    Offer online courses that meet your students’ needs.
  • 108. The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning
    January 2011
    Michael Horn & Heather Staker
  • 109. Blended Learning
    Only 10% of students will join virtual schools.
    Blended learning (blended/hybrid) will dominate
    Six probable models
  • 110. Six Blended Models
    1. Face-to Face Driver
    Face-to-face teachers deliver most of the courses.
    Teacher utilizes online learning on a case-by-case basis to supplement or remediate.
    2. Rotation
    Students rotate on a fixed schedule between online learning and face-to-face.
  • 111. Six Blended Models
    3. Flex
    Online platform delivers most of the curriculum.
    Teachers provide on-site support as-needed.
    4. Online Lab
    Online platform delivers the entire course.
    Paraprofessionals supervise.
  • 112. Six Blended Models
    5. Self-Blend
    Students choose to take one or more courses online to supplement the school’s catalog.
    6. Online Driver
    An online platform and remote teacher delivers all the curricula.
    Students work remotely.
  • 113. The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning
    Online learning has the potential to be a disruptive force that will transform … America’s schools into a new model that is student-centric, highly personalized for each learner, and more productive…
    Michael Horn
  • 114. Independence Days
    1743
    1971
    1975
  • 115. 10 Reasons Why Students Prefer Learning Online
    Virtual School Symposium Panel
  • 116. 10 Reasons
    I can sleep in.
    I can pursue my passions.
    I can focus on my work without distractions from my classmates.
    I can move at my own pace.
    I don’t have to compete to share my thoughts and ideas.
  • 117. I can take more interesting classes.
    I can learn with a schedule that meets my needs.
    I can learn despite health issues that might get in a way of a traditional class setting.
    I can easily communicate with my teacher when I need to.
    I can easily communicate with my classmates whenever I want.
    10 Reasons
  • 118. Links and Contact
    http://brianbridges.org
  • 119. The Day Analog Died.
    Brian Bridges
    CLRN.org