Energy for All in the Anthropocene: A Shared Development Agenda
Energy for All in the Anthropocene: A Shared Development Agenda Preliminary Findings Charles Heaps, Ph. D. Director, SEI US Center www.sei-international.org and www.sei-us.org firstname.lastname@example.org 1
Objectives• Explores how global energy systems might be reconfigured to address sustainability whilst also providing meaningful development.• Goes beyond basic energy access to instead explore sustainable energy for all at levels that can underpin economic activity consistent with at least middle income levels in all countries. 3
Reasons for Concern Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (PNAS, Feb 2009)
Three Scenarios• Baseline (BAS) Likely global trends: assumes major efforts to tackle climate change will not materialize.• Basic Energy Access (BEA) Similar economic trends to BAS + major efforts to mitigate climate change + consistent with provision of basic energy access for all by 2050 (without additional deviation in average incomes vs. BAS).• Shared Development Agenda (SDA) Builds upon BEA scenario. Assumes faster growth in the poorest regions so that avg. Incomes reach at least $10,000 PPP by 2050. Balanced by slower growth in richest regions. Overall global GDP is similar to BEA.
More Equitable Income Distribution (2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita) Baseline SDASDA requires sustained growth rates of between 8% and 9% per year in Africauntil 2050. Similar to rates seen in most rapidly growing African countries now.Baseline already assumes rapid economic development. Additional growth overand above baseline amounts to between 0.6% and 1.4% per year.
More Equitable Income Distribution (2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)2010 2050 Baseline 2050 Shared Development
Improved Income Distribution in SDA• Gini coefficients improve in each region as levels of democratic participation improve and countries become better governed.GINI Analysis Credit: Eric Kemp-Benedict, SEI
SDA: Evolution of Energy Demand in 3 RegionsEJ
Required Energy Intensity Declines: Selected Scenarios SEI Baseline 1.2 GEA Baseline IEA ETP 2010 BaselineFinal Energy Intensity (2010=1) 1.0 Greenpeace Baseline IEA WEO 2011 Current Policies 0.8 IEA WEO 2011 450 IEA ETP 2010 Blue Map 0.6 GEA Efficiency Greenpeace Energy [Re]volution 0.4 SEI Shared Development Agenda SEI Basic Energy Access 0.2 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Some Conclusions• SDA entails significant risks (40% chance of exceeding 2°C, and even 2°C likely to be insufficient for climate protection).• Mitigation goals extremely challenging, but likely still technically feasible if political will emerges. – Requires significant climate action in all regions. – Dramatic improvements in energy intensities (-2.8%/year) required: probably requires technical measures and sufficiency measures. – Up to 8900 GW of wind may be required by 2050! Requires building 248 GW per year (2015-2050 ) - 25 times recent global build rate!• SDA has minimal additional impacts on overall energy use and CO2 emissions compared to BEA. CO2 emissions increase by 4.3% in 2050 vs. BEA. Weigh increase against huge social benefits and likelihood that greater equity is a necessary precondition for concerted global climate action.
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