Energy for All in the Anthropocene:  A Shared Development Agenda           Preliminary Findings                Charles Hea...
Objectives• Explores how global energy systems might  be reconfigured to address sustainability  whilst also providing mea...
Reasons for Concern  Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climat...
Three Scenarios• Baseline (BAS)  Likely global trends: assumes major efforts to tackle climate  change will not materializ...
More Equitable Income Distribution                             (2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)              Baselin...
More Equitable Income Distribution         (2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)2010                  2050 Baseline      ...
Improved Income Distribution in SDA• Gini coefficients improve in each region as levels of democratic  participation impro...
Poverty Levels in BEA vs. SDA
Cumulative EmissionsCumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050       Gt CO2Baseline (97% chance exceeding 2°C)           2,43650%...
CO2 Emissions reductions:     BEA vs. Baseline
SDA: Primary Energy Compared to    Sustainable Resource Base                           Primary Requirements (EJ)   Sustain...
SDA: Evolution of     Energy Demand in 3 RegionsEJ
Required Energy Intensity Declines:       Selected Scenarios                                                              ...
Some Conclusions• SDA entails significant risks (40% chance of exceeding 2°C, and  even 2°C likely to be insufficient for ...
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Energy for All in the Anthropocene: A Shared Development Agenda

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How might global energy systems be reconfigured to address sustainability whilst also providing meaningful development?

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Energy for All in the Anthropocene: A Shared Development Agenda

  1. 1. Energy for All in the Anthropocene: A Shared Development Agenda Preliminary Findings Charles Heaps, Ph. D. Director, SEI US Center www.sei-international.org and www.sei-us.org charlie.heaps@sei-us.org 1
  2. 2. Objectives• Explores how global energy systems might be reconfigured to address sustainability whilst also providing meaningful development.• Goes beyond basic energy access to instead explore sustainable energy for all at levels that can underpin economic activity consistent with at least middle income levels in all countries. 3
  3. 3. Reasons for Concern Source: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (PNAS, Feb 2009)
  4. 4. Three Scenarios• Baseline (BAS) Likely global trends: assumes major efforts to tackle climate change will not materialize.• Basic Energy Access (BEA) Similar economic trends to BAS + major efforts to mitigate climate change + consistent with provision of basic energy access for all by 2050 (without additional deviation in average incomes vs. BAS).• Shared Development Agenda (SDA) Builds upon BEA scenario. Assumes faster growth in the poorest regions so that avg. Incomes reach at least $10,000 PPP by 2050. Balanced by slower growth in richest regions. Overall global GDP is similar to BEA.
  5. 5. More Equitable Income Distribution (2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita) Baseline SDASDA requires sustained growth rates of between 8% and 9% per year in Africauntil 2050. Similar to rates seen in most rapidly growing African countries now.Baseline already assumes rapid economic development. Additional growth overand above baseline amounts to between 0.6% and 1.4% per year.
  6. 6. More Equitable Income Distribution (2005 Thousand Dollars PPP per Capita)2010 2050 Baseline 2050 Shared Development
  7. 7. Improved Income Distribution in SDA• Gini coefficients improve in each region as levels of democratic participation improve and countries become better governed.GINI Analysis Credit: Eric Kemp-Benedict, SEI
  8. 8. Poverty Levels in BEA vs. SDA
  9. 9. Cumulative EmissionsCumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050 Gt CO2Baseline (97% chance exceeding 2°C) 2,43650% Chance of 2°C 1,440SDA (60% Chance of 2°C) 1,30067% Chance of 2°C 1,169Already Emitted (2000-2012): 406 GT CO2
  10. 10. CO2 Emissions reductions: BEA vs. Baseline
  11. 11. SDA: Primary Energy Compared to Sustainable Resource Base Primary Requirements (EJ) Sustainable 1990 2010 2030 2050 Resource Base (EJ)Coal 85 132 108 33 n/aOil 139 176 121 36 n/aNatural Gas 71 111 100 55 n/aNuclear 26 31 52 81 n/aGeothermal 1 2 12 12 1-12Hydro 7 11 23 25 49-80Solar 0 2 19 50 7-285Wind - 1 31 56 28-134Biomass 33 47 63 89 78-139Total 329 467 467 348Sources: SEI, Global Energy Assessment (resources)
  12. 12. SDA: Evolution of Energy Demand in 3 RegionsEJ
  13. 13. Required Energy Intensity Declines: Selected Scenarios SEI Baseline 1.2 GEA Baseline IEA ETP 2010 BaselineFinal Energy Intensity (2010=1) 1.0 Greenpeace Baseline IEA WEO 2011 Current Policies 0.8 IEA WEO 2011 450 IEA ETP 2010 Blue Map 0.6 GEA Efficiency Greenpeace Energy [Re]volution 0.4 SEI Shared Development Agenda SEI Basic Energy Access 0.2 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  14. 14. Some Conclusions• SDA entails significant risks (40% chance of exceeding 2°C, and even 2°C likely to be insufficient for climate protection).• Mitigation goals extremely challenging, but likely still technically feasible if political will emerges. – Requires significant climate action in all regions. – Dramatic improvements in energy intensities (-2.8%/year) required: probably requires technical measures and sufficiency measures. – Up to 8900 GW of wind may be required by 2050! Requires building 248 GW per year (2015-2050 ) - 25 times recent global build rate!• SDA has minimal additional impacts on overall energy use and CO2 emissions compared to BEA. CO2 emissions increase by 4.3% in 2050 vs. BEA. Weigh increase against huge social benefits and likelihood that greater equity is a necessary precondition for concerted global climate action.
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