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InfORmATIOn fROm ThE AGRICULTURAL InDUsTRy | july 2011




    AGRICULTURAL DIALOGUE 13
                                                                                         EDITORIAL
                                                                                         Dear Readers,

                                                                                         The extreme climatic condi-
                                                                                         tions   together    with   unpre-
                                                                                         cedented appetite for agri-
                                                                                         cultural commodities have depleted world food
                                                                                         stocks to historically low levels and sent prices
                                                                                         to record highs.

                                                                                         The agricultural price outlook is cause for
                                                                                         concern, particularly given the current volatility
                                                                                         that hinders farmers’ ability to plan and has major
                                                                                         repercussions for world food security.

Food Security in Focus                                                                   As a big global player in the farming sector and
                                                                                         an economy reliant on world trade, Europe is well
                                                                                         placed to promote the agricultural expansion
In January this year, world food prices hit their highest level since records began
                                                                                         needed to balance world supply and demand.
in 1990. Once more the world was entering a period of food volatility and supply
                                                                                         The challenge is to produce enough to satisfy
disruptions. Food security became a topic of major public concern, in Europe and
                                                                                         demographic and economic growth, energy
beyond after droughts, floods and fires significantly reduced the world’s agricultural
                                                                                         requirements as well as fill the poverty gap.
capacity.
                                                                                         Modern agricultural solutions are key to achieve
                                                                                         efficient and sustainable production. But efforts
Having a secure food supply not only supports the nutrition of a nation, but also
                                                                                         should go further, as increasing production alone
contributes to other societal factors such as its political and economic stability.
                                                                                         is not enough to combat food insecurity often
Agricultural research and the implementation of new technologies urgently need to
                                                                                         caused by poverty and insufficient infrastructure.
be encouraged. A clear political framework is a decisive factor in fostering research
and development to further productivity, but there are other mechanisms that can         In this edition, we examine ways of tackling the
also increase the production capacity in food insecure countries – for example, land     volatility of farm commodity prices. We also share

tenure security or access to banking and microcredit.                                    with you the insights of Abdolreza Abbassian, a
                                                                                         leading agricultural economist.

One way to guarantee food security is to boost farm production through the full
exploitation of innovative agricultural technologies. Simply planting more crops
however is not the solution. US agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack called on farmers
across the world to “continue to embrace existing and emerging technologies to
produce more per acre while using less”. Within Europe, the European Parliament
                                                                                         Markus Heldt
adopted in February a resolution for urgent measures to combat food price
                                                                                         President, Crop Protection Division, BASF SE
manipulation and ensure that food production is maintained in Europe.
AGRICULTURAL DIALOGUE 13                                                                                                               2
                                                                                                                                   2



Another factor that needs to be accounted for is the issue of “land grabbing”.
Though Europe has sufficient food supply, its consumption of imported food has
an impact on food availability on the producing - often developing - countries.
A recent study by the Humboldt University of Berlin analysed the impact of
agricultural trade on land-use decisions outside the European Union, finding
that an area approximately the size of Germany was being used to grow crops
imported to the EU. The conclusions warned that the EU must encourage
agricultural innovation and productivity increases to avoid charges of virtual
“land grabbing”.
                                                                                       Did you Know
Food security, a global dialogue
                                                                                       ■	 The world population is set to rise to 7
With the aim of improving food security, France, a country with a longstanding
                                                                                          billion people at the turn of 2011-2012
agricultural tradition, made tackling the volatility of world farm commodity
                                                                                          and to 9 billion by 2050. Currently about
prices the centrepiece of its 2011 G20 presidency.
                                                                                          78 million people are added to global
                                                                                          population each year.
Significantly, the G20 grouping countries, which produce 85% of the world’s
agricultural output, said in June 2011 in its first-ever communiqué on the issue       ■	 70% of the world population will
that this excessive volatility not only has “negative impacts on access for food          live in urban areas in 2050.
for the poorest but it could also hamper investments and an effective market
response to a long-term increase in demand for food and may harm confidence            ■	 According to FAO, the rate of growth in
in international markets.”                                                                agricultural production is expected to
                                                                                          fall to 1.5% between now and 2030.
Other interest groups as diverse as corporates and charity organizations are
seeking action.                                                                        ■	 Food spending in low-income house
                                                                                          holds in developing countries garners
This widespread concern reflects the fact that food security, previously an issue         up to 80% of the family budget,
mainly confined to non-governmental and international organizations, has moved            according to the United Nations
up the political agenda since the 2007-08 food crisis and the price shock of              Conference on Trade and Development.
2010-11. This second price spike in four years was held to be partly responsible
for the wave of unrest across the Arab world, which in turn affected global energy     ■	 The World Bank estimates that 44 million
markets. “In low-income countries, increases in the international food prices lead        people have fallen into extreme poverty,
to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase      living on less than $1.25 a day, as a
in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots and civil conflict,”            result of food prices rising by 36%
according to an International Monetary Fund report published in March 2011.               during the past year.

As well as price volatility, other factors are threatening food security. With the     ■	 Global warming has already harmed the
world’s population set to reach 9 billion by 2050, severe weather conditions              world’s food production and has driven
regularly destroying crops and biofuels production eating into grain supplies, the        up food prices by as much as 20% over
need for a larger food supply is ever more urgent. This will only be made possible        recent decades.
with the help of technology and innovation in biotechnology and crop protection
within the framework of sustainable agriculture.                                       ■	 Per capita demand for meat in China
                                                                                          has been projected to increase by 60%
Oxfam chief executive Barbara Stocking said in a recent report that “the food             (or 29 kg per capita) during the period
system is pretty well bust in the world. We are sleepwalking towards an avoidable         2000-2050 (Rabobank, 2010).
age of crisis”. Oxfam’s research highlights that in the absence of urgent and
aggressive action to tackle global warming, prices of basic staple foods are
expected to skyrocket in the coming two decades.

Securing our food supply starts by allowing farmers crucial tools in achieving
productive, sustainable agriculture. This does not only mean better products, but
also targeted, smart and safe use of technology as part of sustainable farming.
Modern agriculture technologies can help raise yields, while at the same time
addressing the numerous other challenges facing farmers and play a vital role in
the quest to improve food security.
InfORmATIOn fROm ThE AGRICULTURAL InDUsTRy | JULy 2011                                                                                 3




Food for Thought                                                                        About the Food
                                                                                        and Agriculture
                        Abdolreza Abbassian, who has more than 20 years of
                                                                                        This United Nations body founded in
                        international experience in global food security, is the
                                                                                        1945 leads international efforts to de-
                        FAO’s Secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on
                                                                                        feat hunger. Serving both developed and
                        Grains. This Group, with over 60 countries among its
                                                                                        developing countries, the FAO acts as
                        members, is a principal forum for intergovernmental
                                                                                        a neutral forum where all nations meet
                        consultation and exchange on trends in the global
                                                                                        as equals to negotiate agreements and
                        grain sector. Abdolreza Abbassian explains the
                                                                                        debate policy. Also a source of knowle-
                        implications of high and volatile food prices.
                                                                                        dge and information, it helps developing
How much of a problem are high food commodity prices?                                   countries and countries in transition mo-
                                                                                        dernise and improve agriculture, forestry
They are not necessarily a problem in that high prices can lead to more
                                                                                        and fisheries practices and ensure good
investment in agriculture, which would be positive. But the signs are that in
                                                                                        nutrition for all. It focuses special atten-
general with food commodities the likelihood that they will stay at high levels
                                                                                        tion on developing rural areas, home
is very strong. According to our outlook for the period up to 2020, prices
                                                                                        to 70% of the world’s poor and hungry
are not likely to be below the levels that we are seeing now. Unless there
                                                                                        people.
are fundamental shifts in crop production and an improvement in average
weather conditions, we will be producing only as much as is needed. That
                                                                                        About Abdolreza Abbassian
means there will be very little buffer in the form of stocks. So price volatility
will become the norm rather than the exception, unless political action is              As an economist, Abbassian leads the
taken by countries to find ways of reducing it. And my feeling is that we               Food Outlook team of the FAO, which is
cannot count on that in the medium term.                                                responsible for the publication Food Out-
                                                                                        look, the leading bi-annual publication on
So, from your point of view, volatility is the real problem?                            short-term outlook for food commodities.
                                                                                        Given the strategic role of grains in food
The volatility that we are seeing makes it almost impossible to take
                                                                                        security, Abbassian is also the FAO’s
investment decisions in agriculture. Farmers simply cannot make investment
                                                                                        focal point on food aid matters and re-
decisions when there is so much volatility. Whether prices are high or low is
                                                                                        presents FAO in major international plat-
not necessarily the problem. What we cannot live with is the current volatility.
                                                                                        forms on food aid related issues such as
                                                                                        in Food Aid Committee meetings.
What are the options for tackling the problem of volatility?
The G20 has put agriculture and commodity prices at the forefront of its
priorities this year, and all members are trying to find possible solutions to
address the problem of price volatility. One of these concerns improving
market transparency and market information. There is a feeling that the
sector was caught off-guard last year with the severe drought in Russia, so
this is a fair view, although I am not so sure that it is that influential a cause of
volatility. There is also the possible role for flexible mandates (biofuels). World
stock levels of food commodities are in themselves very low, but in addition
the biofuel sector is playing a role in this. The agricultural commodities going
into biofuels can be seen as virtual stocks, and the G20 may consider the
possibility of diverting these stocks in case of extreme shortage. If this is
agreed, I think the prospect of increased supply in times of need could bring
some stability to the sector. The third element is the role of the financial sector
and what should be put in place. There is general agreement that Europe has
to do a lot more and, as a starting point, introduce a framework similar to
that in the US. Currently, it is hard to see who the market participants are and
what products they are trading.
AGRICULTURAL DIALOGUE 13                                                           InfORmATIOn fROm ThE AGRICULTURAL InDUsTRy | JULy 2011                                                               4




What role do you see agriculture technology/crop sciences playing in the                                                                                      For more information
food security debate?
World food production ought to increase by 70% by 2050 to feed an additional                                                                                  ■ Action plan on food price volatility and
2.3 billion people. We are 7 billion today. In developing countries, food produc-                                                                               agriculture
tion needs to double. Yet, the rate of growth in world cereal yields has dropped                                                                                http://agriculture.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/2011-
                                                                                                                                                                06-23_-_Action_Plan_-_VFinale.pdf
from 3.2% per year in 1960 to 1.5% in 2000. The real challenge for technology
is to reverse this decline, a formidable task given climate change and its impact
                                                                                                                                                              ■ FAO - Special Programme for Food
on production systems. New technologies, crop management techniques, more
                                                                                                                                                                Security (SPFS)
input use efficiencies, and improved plant breeding techniques, including mo-                                                                                   http://www.fao.org/spfs/en/
dern biotechnology, are essential in accelerating yields as well as closing yield
gaps.                                                                                                                                                         ■	 Farming First, Food Security
                                                                                                                                                                 http://www.farmingfirst.org/foodsecurity/
How important is increasing production?
                                                                                                                                                              ■	 Food Security (Standford) Climat Trends
There is a need for improved yields. We have seen a decline in yield growth in                                                                                   and Global Crop Production Since 1980
recent years. This is a rather uncomfortable situation if we are to succeed in                                                                                   http://foodsecurity.stanford.edu/publica-
feeding 9 billion people by 2050. One option would be to expand the area of                                                                                      tions/climate_trends_and_global_crop_
                                                                                                                                                                 production_since_1980/
productive land but we know there is a limit in that regard. We therefore need
to seek other ways of increasing output, in the absence of extra productive land                                                                              ■	 Food Security Portal (IFPRI)
and its impact on production systems. New technologies, crop management                                                                                          http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/
techniques, more input use efficiencies, and improved plant breeding techniques,
                                                                                                                                                              ■	 Gates Foundation
including modern biotechnology, are essential in accelerating yields as well as
                                                                                                                                                                 http://www.gatesfoundation.org/Pages/
closing yield gaps.                                                                                                                                              home.aspx

                                                                                                                                                              ■	 Global Food and Farming Futures
FAO Food Price Index*                                                                                                                                            http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-
2002 - 2004 = 100
                                                                                                                                                                 work/projects/published-projects/global
                                                                                     Beyond 2011

                                                                      - Rapid Population growth                                  10 B
                                                                                                                                             Billion People
                                                                                                                                                                 food-and-farming-futures
250                                                                   - Dietary changes                                                 10
                                                                      - Unpredictable weather                    9B
                                                                      - Increase pressure on natural resources                          09
                                                                                                                                                              ■	 Growing a Better Future, Oxfam’s
210                                                                                                                                     08
                                                                      7B
                                                                                                          8B
                                                                                                                                        07
                                                                                                                                                                 Research
170
                                                                             - Oil price surge
                                                                                                                                        06
                                                                                                                                                                 http://www.oxfam.org/en/grow/reports/
                                                                             - Declining Dollar
                 - Drought in Australia
                 - Canada weather related low yields
                                                                      - Drought and re in Russia                                        05
                                                                                                                                                                 growing-better-future
                                                                      - Floods in Pakistan
130   - Food crisis. Drought                                          - Rains in Canada and USA                                         04
      - High energy prices
      - Low food stocks
                                                                      - Floods in Australia
                                                                      - Russian export Ban                                              03                    ■	 James Hutton Institute
90                                                                                                                                      02                       http://www.hutton.ac.uk/
                                                                                                                                        01

50                                                                                                                                      00                    ■	 Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural
      00 01      02     03     04   05   06    07      08   09   10     11               15             25       43               83
      Years                                                                           Beyond 2011                                                                Markets: Policy Responses
                                                                                                                                                                 http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/2011_
         Real (The real price index is the nominal price index de ated by the World Bank Manufactures Unit Value Index “MUV”)
         Nominal
                                                                                                                                                                 G20_FoodPriceVolatility_en.pdf
         Development of demand - From the UN Population Division.
      *http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/
                                                                                                                                                              ■	 Rabobank - Sustainability and Security
                                                                                                                                                                 of the global food supply chain http://
                                                                                                                                                                 www.rabobank.com/content/images/
                                                                                                                                                                 Rabobank_IMW_WB_report-FINAL-A4-
                      ImpRInT                                                                                                                                    total_tcm43-127734.pdf

           BASF SE                                                                                Rainer von Mielecki                                         ■	 The World Food Programme
                                                                                                                                                                 http://www.wfp.org/
           Agricultural Center Limburgerhof                                                       AP/K – Public/Government Affairs
           AP/K - LI555                                                                           Phone: +49 (0) 621 / 60-27 511                              ■	 World Food Situation (FAO)
                                                                                                                                                                 http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/
           67117 Limburgerhof                                                                     Fax: +49 (0) 621 / 60-27 512                                   wfs-home/en/
           Germany                                                                                rainer.mielecki@basf.com



           www.agro.basf.com

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Agricultural Dialog - Food Security - July 2011

  • 1. InfORmATIOn fROm ThE AGRICULTURAL InDUsTRy | july 2011 AGRICULTURAL DIALOGUE 13 EDITORIAL Dear Readers, The extreme climatic condi- tions together with unpre- cedented appetite for agri- cultural commodities have depleted world food stocks to historically low levels and sent prices to record highs. The agricultural price outlook is cause for concern, particularly given the current volatility that hinders farmers’ ability to plan and has major repercussions for world food security. Food Security in Focus As a big global player in the farming sector and an economy reliant on world trade, Europe is well placed to promote the agricultural expansion In January this year, world food prices hit their highest level since records began needed to balance world supply and demand. in 1990. Once more the world was entering a period of food volatility and supply The challenge is to produce enough to satisfy disruptions. Food security became a topic of major public concern, in Europe and demographic and economic growth, energy beyond after droughts, floods and fires significantly reduced the world’s agricultural requirements as well as fill the poverty gap. capacity. Modern agricultural solutions are key to achieve efficient and sustainable production. But efforts Having a secure food supply not only supports the nutrition of a nation, but also should go further, as increasing production alone contributes to other societal factors such as its political and economic stability. is not enough to combat food insecurity often Agricultural research and the implementation of new technologies urgently need to caused by poverty and insufficient infrastructure. be encouraged. A clear political framework is a decisive factor in fostering research and development to further productivity, but there are other mechanisms that can In this edition, we examine ways of tackling the also increase the production capacity in food insecure countries – for example, land volatility of farm commodity prices. We also share tenure security or access to banking and microcredit. with you the insights of Abdolreza Abbassian, a leading agricultural economist. One way to guarantee food security is to boost farm production through the full exploitation of innovative agricultural technologies. Simply planting more crops however is not the solution. US agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack called on farmers across the world to “continue to embrace existing and emerging technologies to produce more per acre while using less”. Within Europe, the European Parliament Markus Heldt adopted in February a resolution for urgent measures to combat food price President, Crop Protection Division, BASF SE manipulation and ensure that food production is maintained in Europe.
  • 2. AGRICULTURAL DIALOGUE 13 2 2 Another factor that needs to be accounted for is the issue of “land grabbing”. Though Europe has sufficient food supply, its consumption of imported food has an impact on food availability on the producing - often developing - countries. A recent study by the Humboldt University of Berlin analysed the impact of agricultural trade on land-use decisions outside the European Union, finding that an area approximately the size of Germany was being used to grow crops imported to the EU. The conclusions warned that the EU must encourage agricultural innovation and productivity increases to avoid charges of virtual “land grabbing”. Did you Know Food security, a global dialogue ■ The world population is set to rise to 7 With the aim of improving food security, France, a country with a longstanding billion people at the turn of 2011-2012 agricultural tradition, made tackling the volatility of world farm commodity and to 9 billion by 2050. Currently about prices the centrepiece of its 2011 G20 presidency. 78 million people are added to global population each year. Significantly, the G20 grouping countries, which produce 85% of the world’s agricultural output, said in June 2011 in its first-ever communiqué on the issue ■ 70% of the world population will that this excessive volatility not only has “negative impacts on access for food live in urban areas in 2050. for the poorest but it could also hamper investments and an effective market response to a long-term increase in demand for food and may harm confidence ■ According to FAO, the rate of growth in in international markets.” agricultural production is expected to fall to 1.5% between now and 2030. Other interest groups as diverse as corporates and charity organizations are seeking action. ■ Food spending in low-income house holds in developing countries garners This widespread concern reflects the fact that food security, previously an issue up to 80% of the family budget, mainly confined to non-governmental and international organizations, has moved according to the United Nations up the political agenda since the 2007-08 food crisis and the price shock of Conference on Trade and Development. 2010-11. This second price spike in four years was held to be partly responsible for the wave of unrest across the Arab world, which in turn affected global energy ■ The World Bank estimates that 44 million markets. “In low-income countries, increases in the international food prices lead people have fallen into extreme poverty, to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase living on less than $1.25 a day, as a in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots and civil conflict,” result of food prices rising by 36% according to an International Monetary Fund report published in March 2011. during the past year. As well as price volatility, other factors are threatening food security. With the ■ Global warming has already harmed the world’s population set to reach 9 billion by 2050, severe weather conditions world’s food production and has driven regularly destroying crops and biofuels production eating into grain supplies, the up food prices by as much as 20% over need for a larger food supply is ever more urgent. This will only be made possible recent decades. with the help of technology and innovation in biotechnology and crop protection within the framework of sustainable agriculture. ■ Per capita demand for meat in China has been projected to increase by 60% Oxfam chief executive Barbara Stocking said in a recent report that “the food (or 29 kg per capita) during the period system is pretty well bust in the world. We are sleepwalking towards an avoidable 2000-2050 (Rabobank, 2010). age of crisis”. Oxfam’s research highlights that in the absence of urgent and aggressive action to tackle global warming, prices of basic staple foods are expected to skyrocket in the coming two decades. Securing our food supply starts by allowing farmers crucial tools in achieving productive, sustainable agriculture. This does not only mean better products, but also targeted, smart and safe use of technology as part of sustainable farming. Modern agriculture technologies can help raise yields, while at the same time addressing the numerous other challenges facing farmers and play a vital role in the quest to improve food security.
  • 3. InfORmATIOn fROm ThE AGRICULTURAL InDUsTRy | JULy 2011 3 Food for Thought About the Food and Agriculture Abdolreza Abbassian, who has more than 20 years of This United Nations body founded in international experience in global food security, is the 1945 leads international efforts to de- FAO’s Secretary of the Intergovernmental Group on feat hunger. Serving both developed and Grains. This Group, with over 60 countries among its developing countries, the FAO acts as members, is a principal forum for intergovernmental a neutral forum where all nations meet consultation and exchange on trends in the global as equals to negotiate agreements and grain sector. Abdolreza Abbassian explains the debate policy. Also a source of knowle- implications of high and volatile food prices. dge and information, it helps developing How much of a problem are high food commodity prices? countries and countries in transition mo- dernise and improve agriculture, forestry They are not necessarily a problem in that high prices can lead to more and fisheries practices and ensure good investment in agriculture, which would be positive. But the signs are that in nutrition for all. It focuses special atten- general with food commodities the likelihood that they will stay at high levels tion on developing rural areas, home is very strong. According to our outlook for the period up to 2020, prices to 70% of the world’s poor and hungry are not likely to be below the levels that we are seeing now. Unless there people. are fundamental shifts in crop production and an improvement in average weather conditions, we will be producing only as much as is needed. That About Abdolreza Abbassian means there will be very little buffer in the form of stocks. So price volatility will become the norm rather than the exception, unless political action is As an economist, Abbassian leads the taken by countries to find ways of reducing it. And my feeling is that we Food Outlook team of the FAO, which is cannot count on that in the medium term. responsible for the publication Food Out- look, the leading bi-annual publication on So, from your point of view, volatility is the real problem? short-term outlook for food commodities. Given the strategic role of grains in food The volatility that we are seeing makes it almost impossible to take security, Abbassian is also the FAO’s investment decisions in agriculture. Farmers simply cannot make investment focal point on food aid matters and re- decisions when there is so much volatility. Whether prices are high or low is presents FAO in major international plat- not necessarily the problem. What we cannot live with is the current volatility. forms on food aid related issues such as in Food Aid Committee meetings. What are the options for tackling the problem of volatility? The G20 has put agriculture and commodity prices at the forefront of its priorities this year, and all members are trying to find possible solutions to address the problem of price volatility. One of these concerns improving market transparency and market information. There is a feeling that the sector was caught off-guard last year with the severe drought in Russia, so this is a fair view, although I am not so sure that it is that influential a cause of volatility. There is also the possible role for flexible mandates (biofuels). World stock levels of food commodities are in themselves very low, but in addition the biofuel sector is playing a role in this. The agricultural commodities going into biofuels can be seen as virtual stocks, and the G20 may consider the possibility of diverting these stocks in case of extreme shortage. If this is agreed, I think the prospect of increased supply in times of need could bring some stability to the sector. The third element is the role of the financial sector and what should be put in place. There is general agreement that Europe has to do a lot more and, as a starting point, introduce a framework similar to that in the US. Currently, it is hard to see who the market participants are and what products they are trading.
  • 4. AGRICULTURAL DIALOGUE 13 InfORmATIOn fROm ThE AGRICULTURAL InDUsTRy | JULy 2011 4 What role do you see agriculture technology/crop sciences playing in the For more information food security debate? World food production ought to increase by 70% by 2050 to feed an additional ■ Action plan on food price volatility and 2.3 billion people. We are 7 billion today. In developing countries, food produc- agriculture tion needs to double. Yet, the rate of growth in world cereal yields has dropped http://agriculture.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/2011- 06-23_-_Action_Plan_-_VFinale.pdf from 3.2% per year in 1960 to 1.5% in 2000. The real challenge for technology is to reverse this decline, a formidable task given climate change and its impact ■ FAO - Special Programme for Food on production systems. New technologies, crop management techniques, more Security (SPFS) input use efficiencies, and improved plant breeding techniques, including mo- http://www.fao.org/spfs/en/ dern biotechnology, are essential in accelerating yields as well as closing yield gaps. ■ Farming First, Food Security http://www.farmingfirst.org/foodsecurity/ How important is increasing production? ■ Food Security (Standford) Climat Trends There is a need for improved yields. We have seen a decline in yield growth in and Global Crop Production Since 1980 recent years. This is a rather uncomfortable situation if we are to succeed in http://foodsecurity.stanford.edu/publica- feeding 9 billion people by 2050. One option would be to expand the area of tions/climate_trends_and_global_crop_ production_since_1980/ productive land but we know there is a limit in that regard. We therefore need to seek other ways of increasing output, in the absence of extra productive land ■ Food Security Portal (IFPRI) and its impact on production systems. New technologies, crop management http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/ techniques, more input use efficiencies, and improved plant breeding techniques, ■ Gates Foundation including modern biotechnology, are essential in accelerating yields as well as http://www.gatesfoundation.org/Pages/ closing yield gaps. home.aspx ■ Global Food and Farming Futures FAO Food Price Index* http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our- 2002 - 2004 = 100 work/projects/published-projects/global Beyond 2011 - Rapid Population growth 10 B Billion People food-and-farming-futures 250 - Dietary changes 10 - Unpredictable weather 9B - Increase pressure on natural resources 09 ■ Growing a Better Future, Oxfam’s 210 08 7B 8B 07 Research 170 - Oil price surge 06 http://www.oxfam.org/en/grow/reports/ - Declining Dollar - Drought in Australia - Canada weather related low yields - Drought and re in Russia 05 growing-better-future - Floods in Pakistan 130 - Food crisis. Drought - Rains in Canada and USA 04 - High energy prices - Low food stocks - Floods in Australia - Russian export Ban 03 ■ James Hutton Institute 90 02 http://www.hutton.ac.uk/ 01 50 00 ■ Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 15 25 43 83 Years Beyond 2011 Markets: Policy Responses http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/2011_ Real (The real price index is the nominal price index de ated by the World Bank Manufactures Unit Value Index “MUV”) Nominal G20_FoodPriceVolatility_en.pdf Development of demand - From the UN Population Division. *http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/ ■ Rabobank - Sustainability and Security of the global food supply chain http:// www.rabobank.com/content/images/ Rabobank_IMW_WB_report-FINAL-A4- ImpRInT total_tcm43-127734.pdf BASF SE Rainer von Mielecki ■ The World Food Programme http://www.wfp.org/ Agricultural Center Limburgerhof AP/K – Public/Government Affairs AP/K - LI555 Phone: +49 (0) 621 / 60-27 511 ■ World Food Situation (FAO) http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/ 67117 Limburgerhof Fax: +49 (0) 621 / 60-27 512 wfs-home/en/ Germany rainer.mielecki@basf.com www.agro.basf.com