The impact of immigration on the Spanish economy
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The impact of immigration on the Spanish economy

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Libertad González (UPF and Barcelona GSE)

Libertad González (UPF and Barcelona GSE)

October 21, 2011

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The impact of immigration on the Spanish economy The impact of immigration on the Spanish economy Presentation Transcript

  • The impact of immigrationon the Spanish economy Libertad González (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) 1
  • 1. Magnitude of recent immigration•  The foreign-born fraction of the working- age population increased from 2 to 16% in 10 years (1998-2008). –  More than 5 million people!•  Significant slowdown since 2008.•  Large variation across Spanish regions. 2
  • 3Source: Padrón municipal (INE)
  • 4Source: Eurostat
  • 2. Labor market effects•  Large impact on total employment!•  Small (if any) impact on the wages or unemployment rates of natives.•  Some effect on the labor supply of skilled native women –  With young children or elderly dependents –  Through cheaper household services 5
  • Source: EPA (INE) 6
  • 7Source: Encuesta Anual de Coste Laboral (INE)
  • Regional specialization and trade•  Small effect on regional specialization (national?).•  But: Changes in skill intensity at industry level. –  Higher share of low-educated workers. –  Mostly in services and construction. 8
  • 3. Housing market effects•  The large migration inflows increased the demand for housing –  Rental and ownership. –  Leading to higher prices and/or construction activity?•  Immigration also increased labor supply in construction. –  Leading to lower prices and/or higher construction activity?•  Overall effect? –  Probably the demand effect dominated, and immigration contributed to the housing market boom. 9
  • 10Source: Ministerio de Vivienda
  • 11
  • 4. Migration and the recession•  The foreign-born population stabilized since 2008.•  Out-migration flows have accelerated.•  Migration flows seem to respond to economic conditions much more than drive them. 12
  • References•  “How Do Very Open Economies Absorb Large Immigration Flows? Evidence from Spanish Regions.” (with Francesc Ortega) Labour Economics 18: 57-70 (2011).•  “Immigration, Family Responsibilities and the Labor Supply of Skilled Native Women” (with Lidia Farre and Francesc Ortega). The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy: Vol. 11: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 34 (2011).•  “Immigration and Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain” (with Francesc Ortega). CReAM Discussion Paper No 19/09, July 2009. 13