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Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
Hate is in the air: The effect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)
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Hate is in the air: The e ffect of Czech and German radio on elections in pre-war Czechoslovakia (Slides)

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Barcelona GSE Master Project by Bruno Baránek, Kryštof Krotil, and Samuel Škoda …

Barcelona GSE Master Project by Bruno Baránek, Kryštof Krotil, and Samuel Škoda

Master Program: Economics

About Barcelona GSE master programs: http://j.mp/MastersBarcelonaGSE

Published in: Economy & Finance
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  • 1. Hate is in the air The effect of the Czech and German radio on the elections in prewar Czechoslovakia B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda June 26, 2014 B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 1 / 12
  • 2. Motivation Media matters. Right? Which outcomes are most affected? How powerful is media? Is really a watchdog of democracy? Initial studies find small or nil effects Self-selection problem! People follow media according their prior beliefs and preferences Prior beliefs only reinforced by media Need for exogeneous variation B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 2 / 12
  • 3. Our setting Effect of radio on 1935 elections in Czechoslovakia Stable democratic institutions Almost one third of the population is German Advance of the radio In 1935 roughly 40% of households owned a receiver Both Czech and German radio available German radio becomes strongly pro-Nazi in 1933 Nazis restrict access to radio for political opponents ”I consider radio to be the most modern and the most crucial instrument for influencing the masses.” – Joseph Goebbels Broadcasts from rallies and demonstrations Czech radio stays apolitical B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 3 / 12
  • 4. Three questions I Does Nazi propaganda affect electoral outcomes in Czechoslovakia? II Does an apolitical radio hinder the effects of Nazi propaganda? III Which parties are most affected by the radio? Nazi propaganda might backfire... B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 4 / 12
  • 5. Empirical strategy We use geography as a source of exogenous variation Irregular Terrain Model (as in Adena et al., 2014) we want to recover spatial radio availability in 1930s Czechoslovakia historical data on transmitters in Czechoslovakia and Germany geographical location, antenna height, transmitter power, frequency Physics of broadcasting26 AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: APPLIED ECONOMICS OCTOBER 2009 1,000 750 500 250 0 Aerial height Height of ground 0 20 40 60 80 100 Distance d/km Height/m Sea level Figure 2. The Physics of Broadcasting Notes: The dotted areas denote reduced reception; the hatched areas show regions of almost nil reception. In the mountain to the left, the area of no reception is caused by the tight angle of refraction required. In the mountain to the right, the area of no reception is caused by double-refraction off the primary and secondary peak. The figure and description are reproduced with permission from Ellington, Addinall, and Hately (1980). Source: Ellington, Addinall and Hately (1980) B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 5 / 12
  • 6. Availability of radio Relative signal strength of German (left) and Czech radio (right) best signal worst signal best signal worst signal Share of German population 100% 70% 50% 30% 20% 10% 0% B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 6 / 12
  • 7. Model To estimate the effect of exposure to radio on electoral outcomes we use: Specification vote shareij = β0j + β1j Czech signali + β2j German signali + β3j Xi + ij vote shareij is vote share of party j in judicial county i Czech signali and German signali are measures of radio signal strength in county i Xi is a set of county-specific controls ij is an idiosyncratic error Identification: Cov(Czech signali , ij |Xi ) = Cov(German signali , ij |Xi ) = 0 B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 7 / 12
  • 8. Results (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) pHSD pKKSMNSW pKSC pNarSj pNOF pNSjUZ pRSZML pSDP 5050powerA 0.0000710 -0.000293⇤ 0.000522 0.000131 -0.00219⇤⇤ 0.000130 0.00117 0.00304 (0.000189) (0.000161) (0.00145) (0.000891) (0.00107) (0.000119) (0.00229) (0.00198) N 100 167 181 181 167 50 181 181 adj. R2 0.178 0.421 0.300 0.605 0.228 0.381 0.760 0.948 Standard errors in parentheses ⇤ p < 0.10, ⇤⇤ p < 0.05, ⇤⇤⇤ p < 0.01 Table 1: Main results CSDSD (CZ) DSAP (DE) KSC (CZ) NarSj (CZ) RSZML (CZ) SdP (DE) mainstream mainstream communist nationalist mainstream nationalist Czech signal strength -0.00018 0.00059⇤⇤⇤ 0.00031⇤ -0.00039⇤⇤⇤ 0.0001 -0.0014⇤⇤ (0.00017) (0.00018) (0.00017) (0.00014) (0.00017) (0.00057) German signal strength -0.00061⇤⇤⇤ -0.000174 0.0005⇤ 0.00034⇤ -0.00041⇤ 0.0019⇤⇤ (0.00021) (0.00028) (0.0003) (0.00021) (0.00023) (0.00084) ethnicity controls yes yes yes yes yes yes voting controls yes yes yes yes yes yes population controls yes yes yes yes yes yes economic controls yes yes yes yes yes yes demographic controls yes yes yes yes yes yes religion controls yes yes yes yes yes yes N 328 328 328 328 328 328 adj. R2 0.928 0.912 0.839 0.744 0.967 0.951 Note: Standard errors clustered by political county in parenthesis. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 8 / 12
  • 9. In sum German radio availability associated with voters’ radicalization increase in signal strength by one standard deviation yields additional 1.1 percentage point for SdP increase in support for Czech nationalists and communists detrimental impact on the vote shares of Czech mainstream parties Moderating effect of Czech apolitical radio increase in signal strength by one standard deviation leads to a decrease in the vote share of SdP by 1.5 percentage points decrease in support for Czech nationalists positive effect on the vote share of pro-democracy, pro-government DSAP B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 9 / 12
  • 10. Placebo test Table 2: Placebo test with 1929 elections CSDSD (CZ) DSAP (DE) KSC (CZ) NarSj (CZ) RSZML (CZ) SdP (DE) mainstream mainstream communist nationalist mainstream nationalist Czech signal strength -0.00016 0.00029 -0.00039⇤ -0.00031 0.001⇤ -0.00036 (0.00027) (0.00023) (0.00023) (0.0002) (0.00056) (0.00092) German signal strength -0.000087 0.00037 0.00022 0.00013 -0.000031 -0.000099 (0.00035) (0.00028) (0.00029) (0.00034) (0.00051) (0.00098) ethnicity controls yes yes yes yes yes yes voting controls yes yes yes yes yes yes population controls yes yes yes yes yes yes economic controls yes yes yes yes yes yes demographic controls yes yes yes yes yes yes religion controls yes yes yes yes yes yes N 328 328 328 328 328 284 adj. R2 0.921 0.948 0.813 0.485 0.807 0.489 Note: Standard errors clustered by political county in parenthesis. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 10 / 12
  • 11. Three conclusions I German broadcast had significant effect on elections in Czechoslovakia II However, Czech apolitical radio alleviated Nazi propaganda III German radio was beneficial for extremists on both sides of the spectrum B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 11 / 12
  • 12. Thank you for your attention! B. Bar´anek, K. Krotil & S. ˇSkoda Hate is in the air June 26, 2014 12 / 12

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