Economic development policy is a weak and poten3ally counterproduc3ve channel for undermining terrorism, both in FATA and in general.
• Links between low levels of development and terrorism are weak. • Aid money is unlikely to deliver growth. • Aid money may fuel terrorist ac3vity and regional violence. • Aid money is unlikely to help the immediate military campaign by changing hearts and minds.
US has pledged $750 million to FATA and $7.5 billion to the Pakistani government in development aid (in addi3on to $10 billion in military aid). Source: CIA Factbook, USAID
“I fully believe that the root cause of terrorism does come from situa5ons where there is poverty, where there is ignorance, where people see no hope in their lives” ‐ Colin Powell, U.S. Department of State 2002 ‐
• Reports of Taliban providing higher wages and aQrac3ng recruits. • Message of a beQer life with the Taliban. "Their message is there is a lot of injus5ce and we will give you land, we will look aIer you." ‐BBC interviewing a re3red senior oﬃcial from North West Pakistan‐
The only relevant cross‐country study done so far doesn´t ﬁnd a role for poverty to explain countries of origin of terrorists. Micro‐evidence is even clearer: Source: Krueger and Malecková, “Educa3on, Poverty and Terrorism: Is there a causal connec3on?“ , 2003
• Especially the “leading forces” come from wealthy backgrounds. Osama Bin Laden Ayman al Zawahiri (Al‐Qaeda’s deputy)
Source: Krueger and Malecková, “Educa3on, Poverty and Terrorism: Is there a causal connec3on?“ , 2003
Source: PSPCR opinion poll from West Bank and Gaza Strip, December 2001
• Results are likely to be upward biased due to reverse causality between terrorism and GDP. • The most “favorable” regression results imply spendings of US$ 211 billions per year, in order to decrease annual interna3onal terrorist aQacks from Pakistan by 1.
• Narra3ves of the rise of Islamic terrorism point to inequality and poverty as the root of aQrac3on to radical ideologies. Middle East
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, Interna3onal Financial Sta3s3cs of the IMF
UNLIKELY: • Both the history of aid and the par3cular condi3ons of the FATA region make it UNLIKELY that aid can create growth.
• Economic research on aid and growth: • S3ll no clear results aler 40 years. “Aid is probably not a fundamentally decisive factor for development, not asimportant as, say, domestic savings, inequality, or governance.” ‐Roodman (2007)‐
• 33% under total control of terrorists, 40% heavily inﬂuenced by them. • Projects Taliban do not like can not be done. • Taliban has stepped up violence against aid workers and demands them to leave the whole of Pakistan. • Chief of party assassinated. • Over 500 schools in the region destroyed. • Diﬃcul3es of aid policies apparent from recent audits.
• Economic research suggests that the aid has at best a weak impact on growth. • Condi3ons of FATA make aid deliveries diﬃcult if not impossible. Development aid is unlikely to have an impact on growth in FATA
Aid provides incen3ves for perpetua3on of the problem Taliban requires security fees for leqng aid deliveries pass Aid may fuel tribal conﬂict
• Feeble link between aid and growth + aid might be counter‐produc3ve → Development aid is a poor tool for ﬁgh5ng terror
• USA may be able to produce short term eﬀects – ﬂood response shows that opinions deteriorate quickly. • Security is key to geqng the popula3on to work with you (e.g. Malaya). USA cannot provide this in much of FATA.
• Bombing ci3zens and expec3ng people to like you if them material goods is ridiculous (lesson from Vietnam War). Source: Survey by the New America Founda5on on FATA ‐ 2010
• American aid is olen seen as a way of conquering Islam. People view USA as biggest threat to security. Source: Survey by the New America Founda5on on FATA ‐ 2010
• Weak links between underdevelopment and poverty • LiQle evidence that aid will create development in FATA and may fuel terrorism. USAID should stop alloca?ng aid to FATA and Pakistan in order to ﬁght terrorism.