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Report on the state of the economy in the city of Barcelona - November 2013

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Report on the state of the economy in the city of Barcelona - November 2013

Report on the state of the economy in the city of Barcelona - November 2013

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  • 1. Report on the state of the economy in the city of Barcelona by the Commission for Economy, Enterprise and Employment Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment Barcelona City Council Barcelona, November 2013
  • 2. Executive summary • The Catalan, Spanish and European economies have pulled out of the recession and posted positive quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the third quarter of 2013, although economic stakeholders continue to make decisions that are conditioned by fiscal adjustment, restructuring of the financial system and the credit crunch. • Recent behaviours of internal demand indicators –like the retail sales rate or vehicle registration rate-, the positive evolution of industrial activities and improved business confidence point to the beginning of economic recovery in Catalonia and the Barcelona area. • The GDP of Barcelona for 2010 was €61,915 million making up 30.2% of that of Catalonia, with per capita GDP of €38,500. The city has a diversified economic structure, dominated by the tertiary sector with significant contributions from strategic sectors, while industry continues to carry significant weight in the production structure of the BMR.
  • 3. Executive summary (2) • Barcelona generates confidence among investors and companies, as shown in the increase in the volume of foreign investment in the first semester of 2013, the positive international positioning in terms of attracting this investment, and the positive trend in business creation throughout the year. • After a fairly stagnant beginning to the year, exports and tourism have recovered and while sales abroad have stabilised, all of the indicators related to tourism are up for the January – September 2013 period. The city has confirmed its position as an international benchmark in travel for both business and pleasure. • The labour market continues to feel the brunt of the economic crisis, although indicators for Barcelona show a less pronounced readjustment than seen in Catalonia and Spain. There are 109,984 registered unemployed in the city and the unemployment rate is 18.4%, particularly high among young people. The destruction of jobs has left Social Security affiliation at the same level as seen in 2003.
  • 4. Executive summary (3) • The City Council is in good financial health and applies rigorous budgetary and economic management measures that ensure suppliers are paid in no more than 30 days. • The Fitch credit-rating agency, as of 18 October 2013, positively assessed liquidation for 2012 and highlights the dynamic economy and good debt indicators for the Catalan capital. The agency has maintained the maximum rating allowable given the sovereign debt of the Kingdom of Spain (BBB-). • Standard & Poor’s review of Barcelona’s credit rating in July highlighted the City Council’s good economic management and the city’s budgetary and financial situation, maintaining the indicative credit level of ‘aa’, although the official rating is BBB-/negative/A-3 conditioned by that of Spain as a whole. This rating takes into account many positive factors like financial management, liquidity of the institution, and financial execution, in addition to highlighting solid on-going budgetary compliance.
  • 5. Table of Contents 1. Macroeconomic context and current state of affairs 2. Barcelona’s Economy A. Production structure: GDP of Barcelona 2010 B. Foreign investment, enterprise and entrepreneurship C. Internationalisation of the economy D. Production infrastructure E. Tourism F. Science and technology G. Labour market H. Proximity and social cohesion 3. Economic-financial indicators for the City Council
  • 6. 1.1. Macroeconomic context and analysis of state of affairs (1) Catalan, Spanish and European economies pull out of recession • In the third quarter of 2013 the GDP of the European Union rose 0.1% year-on-year, in a still fragile setting due to the effects of the fragmentation of the financial markets, weak economic activity and fiscal adjustments. The dynamism of emerging markets has slowed, while Japan and the USA have shown steady growth despite facing notable uncertainties in the coming months. • The Catalan economy has also pulled out of the recession with positive quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the third quarter of 2013 (+0.1%) –after eight consecutive months without growth- softening the year-on-year fall in this indicator to -0.6%. These results are identical to and more favourable, respectively, than those for the Spanish economy (+0.1 QOQ and -1.2% YOY). External demand continues to be the main pillar of recovery, although the drop in internal demand has lessened. (L) Leading indicator Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from Idescat and INE.
  • 7. 1.1. Macroeconomic context and analysis of state of affairs (2) Risk premium falls but restructuring of financial system and fiscal adjustments continue to condition decision-making among economic stakeholders • • The risk premium has stabilised at 240 basis points, although the economic context in Catalonia and Spain continues to show significant risk given the persistence of the credit crunch, the effects of public budgetary adjustments and the situation in the labour market. In the EU, progress towards the Banking Union that will be created in 2014 –as the sole supervisory body- and measures taken by the European Central Bank to eliminate financial fragmentation in the Eurozone and promote credit for SMEs may contribute significantly to recovery of activity.  The fiscal consolidation process undertaken by the Spanish central government and that of the Autonomous Communities has been intense in 2013 with the aim of reaching approved public deficit goals, set at 1.58% of the GDP for Catalonia and 6.5% of the GDP for general government.  The deleveraging of companies and families continues and their debt in September in Spain shrunk 6.0% and 4.5% respectively year-on-year, while the savings rate for families rallied to 14.9% of disposable income in the second quarter. In any case, the financial burden is still far from sustainable in the long term and bank defaults reached an all-time high (12.12%) in August.  While the process of restructuring, recapitalising and rationalising the banking system continues, credit given to the private sector by financial entities continues to drop, reaching yearon-year levels of -10.4% in Catalonia and -12.8% in Spain in the second quarter.
  • 8. 1.1. Macroeconomic context and analysis of state of affairs (3) Drop in internal demand lessens • Retail sales in Catalonia were up slightly in the third quarter of 2013 (with year-on-year variation at 1.3%) for the first time since 2010, while in Spain they have stabilised. In September, these figures showed year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 2.8% respectively. • Vehicle registration in Barcelona in October was up 20.9% year-on-year and 38.9% month-on-month, results that must be associated with promotion of the PIVE Program. On the whole, vehicle registration from January to October rose 1.0%. • The year-on-year variation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) maintained a predominantly downward trend in 2013 and was 0.1% in October for the province of Barcelona, slightly above that of Catalonia and Spain (both at -0.1%) but below that of the European Union (0.9%). * In current prices without adjustment for seasonality. Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the INE.
  • 9. 1.1. Macroeconomic context and analysis of state of affairs (4) Symptoms of a positive turn in industrial activity • • • • Evolution of the industrial production index (IPI) in the third quarter of 2013 showed year-on-year growth of 2.4% in Catalonia –the second quarter with positive results after a downward trend of six quarters- and was more favourable than that in Spain (0.2%) and the Eurozone. The Catalan industrial GVA showed year-on-year growth in the second and third quarters (+0.5% and +1.2% respectively), driven by exports and containment of the drop in internal demand. However, investment in equipment in Catalonia slid back into negatives in the first two quarters of 2013 (-4.5% and -5.1%, respectively), due in part to the statistical effects of the increase seen in 2012 in the months before the VAT hike. The utilisation rate of productive capacity in the third quarter (70%) was above the average level seen in 2012 (65%) and is the best result posted since mid-2011, which is a leading indicator of recovery in industrial activity. Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the INE.
  • 10. 1.1 Macroeconomic context and analysis of state of affairs (5) Business climate improves in BMA, overall still unfavourable • According to the BMA Business Climate Survey carried out in the second quarter of 2013, the balance of business operations in the BMA is the most favourable since the second quarter of 2011, although 41% of businesspeople say that business is going badly and only 14% say it is going well. This quarter also showed a slowing in the drop in turnover, hitting positive figures in industry –especially for exports- and hotels. • The short-term outlook of businesspeople as to operations has improved and are the least unfavourable since early 2012. • Business confidence in Catalonia improved in the third quarter, as seen in more favourable results on the Business Climate Survey and better perspectives for the fourth quarter. Source: Barcelona Chamber of Commerce and Idescat
  • 11. 1.1 Macroeconomic context and analysis of state of affairs (6) Second-hand real estate market rebounds • Sales of housing in Barcelona was at 22,414 transactions from January to September, up 8.6% year-on-year, while Catalonia and Spain showed growth of +7.8% and +0.2%, respectively. The positive evolution of the second-hand market is in contrast to negative results in new housing. • The number of new housing units begun in Barcelona shows cumulative variation of +7.8% compared to the first six months of 2012. January - September 2013 BCN province Catalonia Spain January - September 2013 SecondTotal New hand 22.414 6.466 15.948 35.746 12.337 23.409 244.074 114.228 129.846 Variation 13 / 12 (%) SecondTotal New hand 8,6 -9,5 18,2 7,8 -6,1 16,9 0,2 -4,7 4,9 Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the INE. Despite the difficult economic outlook for families, improvement to the market softens price adjustment: second-hand housing prices in the city were at €3,180 /m2 in October, down 2.6% from the same month in 2012. • Housing sales Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the INE.
  • 12. 2.A Barcelona’s Economy: GDP 2010 (1) GDP of Barcelona made up 30.2% of that of Catalonia in 2010 • • • From 2008 to 2010, the cumulative nominal decrease in the city’s GDP was -2.6%, as a result of the sharp drop in the GDP in 2009 and slight recovery in 2010. The city of Barcelona’s per capita GDP was €38,500 in 2010, while the BMR and Catalonia are at €29,200 and €27,700, respectively. The indicator for the city is more than 50% higher than the EU average. (€24,500). In 2010 the GDP of Barcelona was €61,915 million, making up 30.2% of the Catalan GDP and 44.9% of that of the Metropolitan Region (€137,755.2 M), which in turn accounts for more than two thirds (67.1%) of the Catalan total. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT mp* 2008-2010 (Millions of €) Barcelona Barcelona Metropolitan Region (1) Catalonia % Barcelona/Catalonia % Barcelona/BMR % BMR/Catalonia 2008 63.591 143.368 212.894 2009 61.491 137.026 204.226 2010 61.915 137.755 205.315 29,9 44,4 67,3 30,1 44,9 67,1 Variation 0810 -2,6 -3,9 -3,6 30,2 44,9 67,1 * based on 2008 GDP (1) Barcelonès, Baix Llobregat, Maresme, Vallès Oriental and Vallès Occidental counties. Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from IDESCAT Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from IDESCAT
  • 13. 2.A Barcelona’s Economy: GDP 2010 (2) Barcelona has maintained its diversified economic structure, with significant and growing weight of strategic sectors • In 2010, 81.9% of Barcelona’s GVA was generated by services, 10.6% by industry and 7.5% by construction. The economic situation has sped up the tertiarisation process in the city, while industry maintains a very significant weight (18.1%) in the production structure of the BMR. • Government and collective services (23.1% of the total), business and real estate services (19.9%) and transport, storage, information and communications (12.2%) are the branches that have generated the most wealth in Barcelona, while the relative weight of retail is 11.5% and hotels, 8.4%, up 1.1% from 2008. Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from IDESCAT
  • 14. 2.B Foreign investment, enterprise and entrepreneurship (1) Barcelona generates confidence among investors and companies: significant increase in foreign investment • Productive foreign investment in Catalonia was €1,665.5 million in the first semester of 2013, up 42.2% year-on-year, making up nearly half (24.4%) of all that in Spain. • Over the same period, Catalan investment abroad reached €536.9 million, down 38.1% from the previous year. Foreign investment in Catalonia and Spain In millions of € S1-13 Catalonia Spain Variation S1 13/12 Weight Cat/Sp (%) 1.665,53 6.818,35 42,17% -0,23% 24,4% - Catalan and Spanish investment abroad In millions of € Catalonia Spain S1- 13 536,89 5.129,66 Variation S1 13/12 -38,13% 16,81% Weight Cat/Sp (%) 10,5% - Note: Total gross investment without entities holding foreign securities (ETVE) Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness.
  • 15. 2.B Foreign investment, enterprise and entrepreneurship (2) Barcelona generates confidence among investors and companies: Attractive urban region for international investors • Catalonia was the second region in Europe in terms of direct foreign investment by volume in the first semester of 2013 according to the Financial Times, overtaking the South West and West Midlands in the United Kingdom and the Community of Madrid. According to the same source, Catalonia is ranked fourth in Europe in number of projects attracted and third in job creation. • Furthermore, according to the prestigious Ernst&Young European Investment Monitor Barcelona/Catalonia was the third urban region in terms of number of direct foreign investment projects attracted in 2012, trailing only London and Paris. FDI in Europe by urban region Rank Urban region 2012 Projects Variation 2011/12 1 Greater London (London) 313 -0,04 2 Île-de-France (Paris) 174 -0,15 3 Catalonia (Barcelona) 116 0,16 4 Madrid (Madrid) 93 -0,01 5 Düsseldorf (Düsseldorf) 84 0,00 6 Stuttgart 81 0,53 7 Dublin (Dublin) 72 0,20 8 Freiburg 71 0,39 9 Rhône-Alpes (Lyon) North Holland (Amsterdam) 70 0,06 68 0,39 Other 2.655 -0,06 TOTAL 3.797 -0,03 10 FONT: Financial Times/Gencat Source: Ernst & Young. European investment monitor 2013.
  • 16. 2.B Foreign investment, enterprise and entrepreneurship (3) Barcelona generates confidence among investors and companies: Trading companies • From January to September 2013, 5,425 trading companies were created in Barcelona, with year-on-year growth of 5.9%. • Subscribed capital in trading companies created over the first nine months of the year showed year-on-year growth of 110% and volume of €607 million, surpassing yearly rates for the five-year period from 2008-2012. • Barcelona had the highest ratio of companies created per 1,000 inhabitants (3.3) of any large urban area in Spain for January to September. • 8.3 trading companies were created in the province for each one dissolved, a ratio above the average for Catalonia, Spain and other large urban areas in the country. • * Data for other Spanish urban areas are provincial. Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the INE According to the INE Central Business Directory, there were 438,385 companies in the province of Barcelona as of January 2013, 191,929 of which employed salaried workers and 246,456 of which didn’t, down 1.7% from January 2012. Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the INE
  • 17. 2.B Foreign investment, enterprise and entrepreneurship (4) Barcelona generates confidence among investors and companies: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) • The entrepreneurial activity rate (EAR) for the population residing in the province of Barcelona in 2012 was 6.5%, down 0.5% from the previous year, while Catalonia as a whole, with EAR of 7.9%, was up 1.1% from 2011. • The entrepreneurial activity rates for Barcelona and Catalonia are above those of France (5.2%), Switzerland (5.9%) and Finland (6%) –which had higher rates in 2010- and those of all the other Autonomous Communities in Spain. The rate for Catalonia is also above the European average (7.6%). *Provincial data • In Barcelona, 68.9% of all people involved in entrepreneurial activities want to take advantage of a business opportunity, while 30% are driven by a lack of other labour alternatives. Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, Informe Executiu Catalunya, 2013.
  • 18. 2.B Foreign investment, enterprise and entrepreneurship (5) Barcelona generates confidence among investors and companies: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) • Entrepreneurs in the province of Barcelona are mainly men (69.9%) with advanced studies (65.3%), with income between €20,001 and €40,000 (38.4%) and are employed (78.2%). • Entrepreneurship in Catalonia as a whole is more innovative than that seen in previous years of the crisis –with a significant increase in process innovation and the use of new technology- and the percentage of entrepreneurs with advanced studies is above del 68%. • In both Barcelona and Catalonia, the female entrepreneurial rate and that for under-35s have dropped, as has the level of entrepreneurial replacement, which has an negative impact on the number of businesses. *Provincial data
  • 19. 2.B Foreign investment, enterprise and entrepreneurship (6) Barcelona Mobile World Capital, driving force for the economy • Mobile technology is becoming a key vector of growth for the economy as a whole, and Barcelona's designation as the Mobile World Capital –hosting the Mobile World Congress and the industrial legacy project- are an opportunity to position the city in this arena. • The mobile ecosystem in Catalonia in 2011 had more than 2,300 companies, more than 39,400 workers and generated business volume of €5,400 million, with the province of Barcelona accounting for 85%, 90% and 94% of these totals respectively. Main data on mobile ecosystem in Catalonia and Barcelona 2011 Number of companies Number of workers Business volume (in M€) In absolute values Barcelona city 1.058 20.628 3.236 Barcelona province 1.997 35.438 5.077 Catalonia 2.342 39.408 5.399 Relative weight to next larger territory Bcn city / Bcn province 53,0% 58,2% 63,7% Bcn province / Catalonia 85,3% 89,9% 94,0% Source: Barcelona Observatory, 2013 Report. Estimation from the Department of Economic and Infrastructure Studies based on the Iberian Balance Sheet Analysis System (SABI), list of Social Security Affiliates and Survey on Idescat Services and Barometer of the technology sector in Catalonia. Note: NACE sectors included in the table, by main activity listed in SABI: 6120 and auxiliary ecosystem: 2611, 2612, 2630, 2651, 5821, 5829, 6201, 6202, 6190, 6311, 6312, 6399.
  • 20. 2. C Barcelona’s economy: Internationalisation (1) Evolution of exports stabilises • Exports from the province of Barcelona reached a volume of €30,212 million from January to August 2013 –slightly lower than the same period in 2012 (-0.6%). The decrease in this indicator in the first quarter was followed by a gradual recovery in the following months, in line with the European economy. • From January to August 2013, there were 34,907 export companies in the province of Barcelona, which accounts for 29.3% of the Spanish total. • Barcelona continues to lead the ranking of exports in Spain with nearly one fifth of the total (19.4%). Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Datacomex. Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness.
  • 21. 2. C Barcelona’s economy: Internationalisation (2) • From January to August, Barcelona generated 25% of all high and mid-high technology exports from Spain, and its weight with regard to sales abroad from the area is nearly 60% of the total. • The chemical sector made up more than one fifth of all sales abroad from the province of Barcelona (25.7%) from January to August 2013, followed by equipment and machinery and automobiles (with 18.7% and 18.3% of the total respectively). • The majority of exports from the Barcelona area (58%) go to the European Union, but trade with emerging economies is booming and the relative weight of Asia is growing (more than 10% of all sales abroad). * Provisional data Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Ministry for the Economy and Competitiveness.
  • 22. 2. C Barcelona’s economy: Internationalisation (3) Balance of trade continues to improve • • • • • From January to August 2013 the value of goods imported by companies in the province of Barcelona was €34,455 million, down 7.7% from the same period in 2012. Coverage Ratio* for the Barcelona area 90% 85% 80% The EU (58.6% of the total) is the main supplier to the Barcelona area. Asia now accounts for one fifth (22.1%) of all imports. The imports ranking is led by the chemical sector and industrial machinery and equipment (with 22.9% and 17.9% of the total, respectively). 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% The coverage rate for the Barcelona area was up 5.6% in the first semesters of 2012 and 2013, hitting the highest rate seen in available data: 86.4%. In the first semester of 2013, sales from Catalonia to the rest of the world (41% of the total) surpassed those to the rest of Spain (34%), in line with the trend that began in 2010. Catalonia’s positive balance of trade with the rest of Spain (+€11,372 M) held steady. 50% S1-2000 S1-2002 S1-2004 S1-2006 S1-2008 S1-2010 S1-2012 * Export/Import ratio for a territory over a specific period of time Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Ministry for Economy and Competitiveness.
  • 23. 2. C Barcelona’s economy: Internationalisation (4) International positioning (I): Barcelona maintains place among top 20 world cities in global competitiveness and stands out in liveability Liveability of main urban areas of the world in 2013 Overall competitiveness in main urban areas of the world (Barcelona's rank) Overall R&D Liveability Accessibility 0 Ranking City 4 1 Paris 8 5 2 Vienna 3 Amsterdam 4 Barcelona 5 Vancouver 6 10 11 12 13 15 20 15 19 19 6 Berlin 7 24 25 Copenhagen 8 Zurich 34 9 Stockholm 36 10 Geneva 11 Milan 12 Toronto 30 32 35 40 2012 • 2013 13 According to the prestigious Mori Memorial Foundation Global Power City Index 2013 ranking, Barcelona is ranked nineteenth in global competitiveness among 40 large world cities, down six positions from the previous year. Of the indicators analysed, the cities position on the liveability ranking is noteworthy, ranked fourth and surpassed only by Paris, Vienna and Amsterdam. Madrid 14 Brussels 15 Osaka 16 Fukuoka 17 Frankfurt 18 Taipei 19 Shanghai 20 Tokyo Source: Mori Global Power City Index. Institute of Urban Strategies. The Mori Memorial Foundation
  • 24. 2. C Barcelona’s economy: Internationalisation (5) Posicionament internacional de Barcelona (II) • Labour Attractiveness Rank City 1 Paris 2 3 4 5 6 7 London Madrid Barcelona Toronto Calgary Sydney Score A A A A B B B 0,68 0,66 0,63 0,62 0,60 0,58 • 0,58 8 Oslo B 0,55 9 Vancouver C 0,53 10 Stockholm C 0,53 11 Montreal C 0,52 12 Halifax C 0,50 13 Tokyo C 0,49 14 New York D 0,49 15 Seattle D 0,49 16 Dallas D 0,47 17 Berlin D 0,47 18 Hong Kong D 0,47 19 Shanghai D 0,45 20 Chicago D 0,44 21 Boston D 0,44 22 San Francisco D 0,44 23 Milan D 0,44 24 Los Angeles D 0,43 Note: Score from 0 to 1. Source: Toronto Board of Trade, Scorecard on Prosperity 2013 • The Scorecard on Prosperity 2013 –which compares 24 large, competitive world cities- puts Barcelona as the fourth most attractive city for workers, and 16th in global prosperity. Likewise, Barcelona is ranked first among leading world metropolitan areas in terms of commute time, with an average of 48 minutes return. The same ranking puts Barcelona at the top in terms of equality. Barcelona is among the top 10 European cities for the creation of start-ups, according to the magazine Wired and is eighth on the European Smart Cities ranking, according to digital innovation magazine Fast Company. Commute time Rank City Minutes 1 Barcelona 48,4 2 Calgary 52,0 3 Oslo 52,0 4 Dallas 53,1 5 Milan 53,4 6 Seattle 55,2 7 58,3 8 Los Angeles San Francisco 9 Boston 58,5 10 Vancouver 60,0 11 Chicago 61,9 12 Montreal 62,0 13 Berlin 63,2 14 Madrid 66,0 15 Toronto 66,0 16 Paris 67,4 17 Sydney 68,0 18 Tokyo 69,6 19 New York 69,8 20 Stockholm 70,0 21 London 74,0 22 Shanghai 100,8 57,4 Note: Average commute time (in minutes) to and from work Score: Toronto Board of Trade, Scorecard on Prosperity 2013
  • 25. 2.D Infrastructure and production spaces Weekly frequency of intercontinental flights increase • The Barcelona Airport saw a total of 30,519,978 passengers from January to October 2013, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. On the other hand, however, the weekly frequency of intercontinental flights was up 16.5% from 2012. • From January to October 2013 there was a slight uptick in year-on-year growth in cargo transport (+0.4%) and decrease in container traffic (-2.3%) in the Port of Barcelona, while the percentage of tonnes loaded shows year-on-year growth of 2.3%. Activity indicators for the port and airport of Barcelona 2013 January - October 13 Number of containers Port (TEU) Tonnes of cargo Port 1.452.220 35.133.234 January - October 13 Number of passengers Airport Tonnes of cargo Airport 30.519.978 82.087 Year-on-year variation 13/12 Absolute In % -34.239 -2,3% 138.826 0,4% Year-on-year variation 13/12 Absolute In % -155.277 -0,5% 1.702 2,1% Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Port and Airport of Barcelona
  • 26. 2.E Tourism (1) Weight of international tourism increases • After a more stagnant beginning to the year, tourism recovered in the second quarter and posted growth in all indicators for the January-September 2013 period. • Highlights include strong year-on-year growth in credit-card spending by tourists (+28.2%) and the increase in cruise passengers (8.4%), as well as more moderate growth in overnight stays (+2.8%) and number of tourists (+0.9%). • Catalonia is the leading Autonomous Community in international tourism, making up 25% of the Spanish total and showing year-on-year growth of 7.5% in the first nine months of 2013. Tourism indicators for Barcelona January-September 2013 JanuarySeptember 2013 Number of tourists Overnight hotel stays Credit-card spending (€) Cruise passengers 5.754.173 12.695.295 2.380.220.285 2.001.084 Year-on-year variation 13/12 Absolute 51.358 343.601 523.779.834 154.966 In % 0,90 2,78 28,21 8,39 Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from Turisme de Barcelona
  • 27. 2.E Tourism (2) Barcelona, international benchmark in business tourism Number of international congresses in world cities 2008-2012 Number of delegates at international congresses in world cities 2008-2012 Rank City Congresses Rank City Delegates 1 Paris 897 1 Barcelona 519.159 2 Vienna 875 2 Vienna 516.581 3 Barcelona 822 3 Berlin 470.076 4 Berlin 772 4 Paris 448.881 5 Singapore 721 5 Amsterdam 396.072 6 London 666 6 Istanbul 357.476 7 Amsterdam 612 7 Singapore 331.588 8 Madrid 611 8 Stockholm 324.100 9 Istanbul 601 10 Beijing 598 9 London 292.477 10 Buenos Aires 290.188 Source: ICCA, A Modern History of International Association Meetings 1963-2012 Source: ICCA, A Modern History of International Association Meetings 1963-2012 • • According to the International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA), Barcelona was ranked first among world cities in number of delegates and third in number of international congresses for the 2008-2012 period. In 2012, Barcelona was fifth on the ranking of international congresses. Other international rankings highlight Barcelona’s attractiveness for international visitors. International tourism rankings Name of ranking Mastercard Index of Global Destination Cities 2013 The European Cities Marketing Benchmarking Report 12/13 Trip Advisor Euromonitor International 2011 Report Source: Reports listed in the table. Topic Barcelona rank International visitors and tourism spending 10th in the world 3rd in Europe International overnight stays 4th in Europe Attractiveness for tourists Visited by international tourists 5th in the world 20th in the world 5th in Europe
  • 28. 2.F Science and technology Research of excellence in the area of Barcelona receives global recognition • Barcelona was ranked fourth in Europe and tenth in the world for scientific production in 2012, according to a report by the Polytechnic University of Catalonia. • The Max Planck Society world ranking of scientific excellence for Physics and Astronomy features three Catalan institutions – the Institute of Photonic Sciences, the Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies and the High Energy Physics Institute, which are ranked first, third and eighteenth, respectively. Scientific excellence in physics and astronomy 1 Institute of Photonic Sciences 2 Institute for Advanced Study 3 Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies 4 Rice University 5 Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics 6 University of Pennsylvania 7 Stanford University 8 Partners HealthCare System 9 Harvard University 10 University of California, Santa Barbara 11 Columbia University 12 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 13 Princeton University 14 Tufts University 15 University of Chicago 16 University of California, Santa Cruz 17 Source: UPC-Centre of Land Policy and Valuations. Report on the evolution of scientif ic production in main w orld cities, compiled f or the 2013 Report of the Barcelona Observatory Carnegie Institution for Science 18 High Energy Physics Institute Source: Mapping Scientific Excellence. Max Planck Society
  • 29. 2.G Labour market (1) The city has nearly 1,000,000 jobs but net destruction of employment continues • • Barcelona finished the third quarter of 2013 with 960,613 Social Security affiliates under all the regimes, which is down 1.2% and represents a loss of 12,056 jobs from the same period in 2012. The year-on-year decrease in affiliates in the city of Barcelona (-1.2%) was smaller than that seen in Catalonia and, especially, Spain as a whole (-2.7 and -3.3%, respectively). Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the INSS
  • 30. 2.G Labour market (2): Salaried employees by economic sector • • In the third quarter of 2013, the number of salaried employees in the three large sectors in the city fell, more moderately in the service sector (-0.8% YOY variation) than in industry (-3.4%) and, particularly, construction (-14.6%). By branch, those generating jobs were: real estate activities (+2.6%), financial and insurance activities (+1.9%), government (+1.8%) and business services (+0.5%), the hotel sector held steady, and in absolute values, the loss of more than 3,800 retail jobs (-3.1%) and more than 2,000 in the transport and storage sector (-5.1%) and manufacturing industry (-3.5%) is noteworthy. Social Security Affiliation by economic activity in Barcelona 3rd Quarter 2013 Economic Activity (CCAE 2009) Q3-2013 (%) of total Q2-2013 Q3-2012 Number QOQ variation (%) YOY variation (%) TOTAL 817.840 100,00% 826.555 830.042 -8.715 -1,1 -1,5 Agriculture, livestock and fishing Extraction industries Manufacturing industries Power and gas Water and waste Construction Retail and repairs Transport and storage Hotels Information and communications Financial and insurance Real estate Business services Government Education Health and social services Arts and recreation Other services Personal household employees Extraterritorial bodies 225 29 57.318 2.223 9.795 21.939 119.611 37.678 63.049 42.767 39.739 9.937 161.987 71.013 56.181 79.918 17.359 21.953 4.783 336 0,03% 0,00% 7,01% 0,27% 1,20% 2,68% 14,63% 4,61% 7,71% 5,23% 4,86% 1,22% 19,81% 8,68% 6,87% 9,77% 2,12% 2,68% 0,58% 0,04% 262 30 57.824 2.241 9.608 23.244 121.586 37.330 62.223 42.655 40.615 9.980 160.594 76.073 55.850 80.677 18.342 22.367 4.714 340 270 48 59.393 2.330 10.045 25.684 123.468 39.698 63.002 43.126 38.990 9.682 161.246 69.790 56.637 80.006 17.823 23.727 4.758 319 -37 -1 -506 -18 187 -1.305 -1.975 348 826 112 -876 -43 1.393 -5.060 331 -759 -983 -414 69 -4 -14,1 -3,3 -0,9 -0,8 1,9 -5,6 -1,6 0,9 1,3 0,3 -2,2 -0,4 0,9 -6,7 0,6 -0,9 -5,4 -1,9 1,5 -1,2 -16,7 -39,6 -3,5 -4,6 -2,5 -14,6 -3,1 -5,1 0,1 -0,8 1,9 2,6 0,5 1,8 -0,8 -0,1 -2,6 -7,5 0,5 5,3 Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Catalan Ministry for Entreprise and Employment
  • 31. 2.G Labour market (3): Salaried employees in knowledge-intensive sectors • More than half of all jobs in the city of Barcelona (53.4%) are knowledge-intensive and the city is a hub for these jobs in Catalonia, with 44.5% of the total. • Affiliation in knowledge-intensive sectors showed a slight uptick in year-on-year levels (+0.1%) for the second time since 2011 thanks to an increase in knowledge-intensive services (+0.3%). • Among knowledge-intensive services and high technology, information services and IT services are up (+6.2% and +3.2%, respectively), while research and development has held fairly stable and jobs have been lost in cinema and video (-6.9%), telecommunications (-6.4%) and radio and television (-3.7%), continuing the trend seen over the past two years. Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Catalan Ministry for Entreprise and Employment
  • 32. 2.G Labour market (4) Unemployment rate 18.4% • • The employment rate in Barcelona was 63.9% in the third quarter of 2013, 8.4% lower than in Spain, hitting the second lowest rate since 2002. Likewise, the city has lost assets compared to one year ago, although the activity rate (78.3%) is once again above 78%. The EAPS unemployment rate for the city (18.4% in the third quarter) has dropped 0.7% in the past year. This indicator in Barcelona is lower –by 4.6% and 7.7%, respectively- than the Catalan (23.0%) and Spanish averages (26.1%), but 7.4% higher than the European average (10.9%). Unemployment is still high among young people, although the youth unemployment rate for the city (37%) is 10% and 17.3% lower than the Catalan and Spanish rates, respectively. Activity, employment and unemployment rates Q3-2013. In % Barcelona Catalonia Spain European Union* Activity rate 78,3 79,0 75,1 72,0 Employment rate 63,9 60,9 55,5 64,2 Unemployment rate 18,4 23,0 26,1 10,9 * Data from second quarter of 2013 Evolution of unemployment rate by territory 28,0 26,0 24,0 22,0 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 • Catalonia Spain Source: Compiled by the BarcelonaBarcelona Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's City Council Department of Studies based on data from the Survey of the Active Population
  • 33. 2.G Labour market (5) Registered unemployment in Barcelona down year-on-year • Barcelona finished the month of October with 109,984 people registered as unemployed with the SOC offices (1,278 more than the previous month), with a month-on-month increase in this indicator of 1.2% after stabilising in July, August and September. • Year-on-year, Barcelona had the best evolution of all territories compared as the unemployment level was down 2.2% from that registered in October 2012 –with 2,495 fewer people unemployed and the level decreasing for five consecutive months- while the drop in both Catalonia (-1.9%) and Spain as a whole (-0.5%) was more moderate. • The number of contracts signed in Barcelona in October (85,245) was up 5,593 (7%) from October 2012. • Cumulative hiring from January to October 2013 fell year-on-year in Barcelona (-0.4%), but rose in Catalonia (+0.3%) and Spain (+1.9%). It must be noted, however, that temporary cumulative hiring in the city showed year-on-year growth (+4%), and the relative weight of permanent contracts is higher in Barcelona and Catalonia (11.2% and 11%, respectively) than nationally (7%).
  • 34. 2.G Labour market (6): Profile of unemployed in Barcelona Most jobs show decrease in registered unemployment in the city in October • Service workers (21%), those without qualifications (18.4%) and administrative workers (17%) have the highest levels of registered unemployment and together make up more than half of all those unemployed (56.4%). Registered unemployment by professional group October 2013 Registered Registered Year-on-year unemployment Economic Activity (CCAE 2009) (%) of total unemployment variation(%) September 2013 TOTAL • The majority of the professional groups in the city showed decreased unemployment compared to October 2012, with scientific technicians, qualified workers and unqualified workers showing the greatest year-onyear decrease in unemployment (5.1%, -4.5, -3.6%, respectively). 109.984 100,0 -2,2 108.706 Executives Technicians/Scientists Technicians/Support professionals Administrative Services Agriculture/Fishing Qualified workers Machine operators Unqualified workers 3.689 13.737 13.617 18.653 23.132 506 11.790 4.643 20.196 21 3,4 12,5 12,4 17,0 21,0 0,5 10,7 4,2 18,4 -2,2 -5,1 -1,7 -0,7 0,0 2,2 -4,5 -0,2 -3,6 3.713 14.415 13.535 18.412 22.236 496 11.635 4.517 19.727 20 Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Catalan Ministry for Enterprise Employment
  • 35. 2.G Labour market (7): Registered unemployment by sector • In October 2013, the year-onyear decrease in unemployment in the power and gas (-11.7%), Government (-10.2%), construction (-9.6%), other services (-5.6%), arts and recreation (-4.6%) and business services (-3.9%) sectors was noteworthy. The number of unemployed held steady in retail (+0.2%) and increased moderately in the transport, health and social services, and financial sectors, with a more significant increase in the hotel sector (+3.5%) due to seasonality. Registered unemployment by economic sector Octubre 2013 Economic Activity (CCAE 2009) TOTAL Agriculture, livestock and fishing Extraction industries Manufacturing industries Power and gas Water and waste Construction Retail and repairs Transport and storage Hotels Information and communications Financial and insurance Real estate Business services Government Education Health and social services Arts and recreation Other services Personal household employees Extraterritorial bodies Not previously employed Registered (%) of total unemployment Month-onmonth i ti (%) Year-on-year variation(%) -2,2 109.984 100 1,2 513 0,49 10,6 -6,9 41 0,05 9,1 0,20 0,71 10,67 15,63 3,47 9,54 3,92 1,53 0,99 24,57 1,24 3,55 4,33 2,18 3,72 -2,4 -0,7 -4,7 17,7 -1,5 1,5 5,1 6,9 -1,7 9,6 3,1 1,1 -1,5 -10,0 4,5 -0,5 -2,6 -25,5 -5,6 -11,7 -1,4 -9,6 0,2 1,7 3,5 -1,5 2,2 1,1 -3,9 -10,2 -4,5 2,6 -4,6 -5,6 0,79 0,04 3,24 8,9 0,0 1,9 74,1 -12,2 -1,8 9.751 203 798 10.983 17.701 3.855 10.509 4.242 1.790 1.117 26.578 1.274 3.945 5.115 2.270 3.981 1.426 43 3.849 =Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Catalan Ministry for Enterprise and Employment
  • 36. 2.G Labour market (8): Profile of the unemployed in Barcelona Number of unemployed foreigners continues to decrease • oct-13 Number % of Total Total unemployed 109.984 - Foreigners: 21.004 Gender: Male Female The profile of the average unemployed person in Barcelona as of October 2013 was: men over 45, with general education, from the business services, retail, construction or hotel sectors. • By age, unemployment is increasing among over-45s and by level of studies, only the vocational-training segment is growing. • PROFILE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYED IN BARCELONA The number of unemployed foreigners was down 7.2% last year, due to many returning to their home countries. Year-on-year variation (%) IIII -3,0 19,1 IIIIIIIIII -7,2 55.032 54.952 50,0 50,0 IIIII I -3,6 -0,8 Age: <25 25-29 30-45 >45 5.867 9.235 42.512 52.370 5,3 8,4 38,7 47,6 Studies Primary or none General education Vocational training University 7.226 65.231 18.836 18.691 6,6 59,3 17,1 17,0 Length Up to 6 months 6 to 12 months More than 12 months 45.425 18.958 45.601 Recipients (%): 56,05% 41,3 17,2 41,5 IIIIIIIIIIIIII -9,9 IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII -14,0 IIIIIIIII -6,9 5,6 IIIIIIIII IIIIII IIII IIII IIIIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIIII II -4,4 -2,9 1,8 -2,9 -8,8 -9,9 9,6 III IIIIIIIIIIIIIII -1,6 Source: Compiled by the Barcelona City Council Area of Economy, Enterprise and Employment's Department of Studies based on data from the Catalan Ministry for Enterprise and Employment
  • 37. 2.H Proximity and social cohesion (1): Retail and markets Barcelona, among top 10 European destinations to set up retail shops Retail in Barcelona Retail (Q3 2013) Number of companies Number of jobs Municipal markets Food Specialties Number of establishments Total surface area Revenue* *Average sales per month per establishment. 2010 Source: INSS and Barcelona City Council Department of Statistics Top 10 most attractive destinations in Europe for international retail companies (2012) Rank City 1 London 2 Paris 3 Moscow 4 Milan 5 Madrid 6 Rome 7 Munich 8 St Petersburg 9 Prague 10 Barcelona Source: Jones Lang La Salle, Destination Europe • With 15,732 companies and 138,204 workers, retail is one of the most significant branches in Barcelona’s economic structure, accounting for 22.7% of all companies and 14.9% of all workers. • Barcelona is among the top 10 most attractive European destinations to set up retail shops according to the latest ranking by Jones Lang Lasalle in 2012.
  • 38. 2.H Proximity and social cohesion (2): Unemployment by district and neighbourhood Registered unemployment fell in eight districts last year Variation in unemployment rate by district (September 2012-2013). In % +1% +0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% • -0,0% +0,7% -4,1% -3,7% -6,7% -6,3% -2,6% -3,3% -3,0% -1,9% -5,7% The registered unemployment rate shows a negative correlation with the average income level in the district, and Nou Barris is the district with the highest level (19.3%). Registered unemployment rate by district. September 2013
  • 39. 2.H Proximity and social cohesion (3): Breakdown of Gross Household Income The economic crisis has reduced the relative weight of the middle class in the city • In Barcelona in 2011, most households fell into the middle class (46.9% of the total), although this was down 11.6% from 2007. • With the economic crisis, the population can be seen moving to the lower-middle and lower income levels from the upper-middle class, which is progressively dwindling. Source: Barcelona Economia, Technical Programming Department, Barcelona City Council
  • 40. 3. Economic-financial indicators for the City Council (1) Progressive improvement in indicators Economic-financial indicators for the Barcelona City Council Budget indicators Current revenue Current expenditure Gross savings % Gross savings w/o current revenue Non-financial revenue Non-financial expenditure Capacity (Need) for Financing % CNF w/o non-financial revenue National Accounting Adjustment Debt level (as of 31/12) Barcelona City Council % Debt w/o current revenue Consolidated Debt according to Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP)(1) Consolidated Debt according to Municipal Charter (2) 2010 2.042.263 1.774.976 267.287 13,1% 2.216.179 2.516.411 2011 1.884.171 1.788.380 95.791 5,1% 1.996.670 2.394.973 2012 2.235.491 1.807.697 427.794 19,1% 2.261.079 2.200.999 2013e 2.303.903 1.853.969 449.934 19,5% 2.333.858 2.210.546 -300.232 -13,5% -216.299 -398.303 -19,9% -466.409 60.080 2,7% -57.559 123.312 5,3% -97.110 2010 1.200.101 58,8% 1.201.529 1.464.405 2011 1.090.101 57,9% 1.090.101 1.346.790 2012 1.165.101 52,1% 1.165.101 1.401.032 2013e 1.165.101 50,6% 1.165.101 1.393.478 Apr-12 'aa' Sept-12 'aa' Mar-12 'aa' Current 'aa' Spain A (-) A (-) BBB+ (-) BBB (-) Under review BBB- (-) BBB (-) BBB- (-) BBB (st) BBB- (-) BBB (st) Baa3 (-) Baa3 (-) Baa3 (-) Var. 13e/12 3,1% 2,6% 5,2% 2,1% 3,2% 0,4% Var. 12/11 18,6% 1,1% 346,6% 276,4% 13,2% -8,1% Var. 13e/12 0,0% -3,0% Var. 12/11 6,9% -9,9% 0,0% 6,9% -0,5% 4,0% (1) Includes Barcelona City Council (SEC 95 criteria) (2) Includes City Council, OOAA, EPEs and Trading Companies held in more than 50% Credit ratings Standard&Poor's (ICL)* Standard&Poor's Fitch Moody's Under review Note: (Perspective) * ICL: "Indicative Credit Level". Assesses the intrinsic creditworthiness of the City Council if it were not constrained by the sovereign credit rating. Source: Barcelona City Council Directorate of Finance
  • 41. 3. Economic-financial indicators for the City Council (2) Commitment to pay in 30 days maintained Source: Barcelona City Council Treasury • The City Council has maintained its firm commitment to pay suppliers in 30 days, as can be seen in the cumulative monthly average as of 31 October.