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TMT Predictions   .2012June 12, 2012
We are “predictions experts”    Not forecasters    Not futurists1                                  © Deloitte & Touche LLP...
“Deloitte predicts that a new    generation of consumer oriented    tablet computers will sell    10-12 million units in 2...
2011 TMT Predictions.Report CardJanuary 20123                       © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
2011 Predictions report cardTechnology                                                       Smartphones and tablets: More...
2011 Predictions report cardMedia                                                       Television’s “super media” status ...
2011 Predictions report cardTelecommunications                                                       Getting to 4G cheaply...
Total Prediction Accuracy    100%    90%    80%    70%    60%           2008      2009      2010      2011                ...
Mythbusters8             © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
We are in the post-PC era*    Internet accessing device units   Internet device hours/month                      1.5B     ...
10   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
11   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
12   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
13   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
14   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
15   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
16   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion17                                          © Deloitte & Touche LLP an...
The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion18                                          © Deloitte & Touche LLP an...
Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges19                                         © Deloitte & Touche LLP...
Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges20                                         © Deloitte & Touche LLP...
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner21                                            © Deloitte & Touch...
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner22                                            © Deloitte & Touch...
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner23                                            © Deloitte & Touch...
It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner24                                            © Deloitte & Touch...
25   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
26   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to theportable DVR27                                        © Deloitte & Touch...
All aboard for the catch-up commuter thank to theportable DVR28                                        © Deloitte & Touche...
29   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
The schedule dominates, still30                              © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
31   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
32   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
33   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
34   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
35   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
36   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
37   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
10080       I Love Paying for TV60       I Am Seriously40     Considering Cancelling       I Plan to Cancel20         Sour...
1008060                        Cord Keepers40                        Cord Cutters20 0 39   2011   2013   © Deloitte & Touc...
100 10           Cord Keepers  1           Cord Cutters 0.10.01 40    © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
41   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
42   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
43   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
57        4.2% of all hours                  145                  228                LightestMillions ofhours of TV       ...
45   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds46                                    © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affil...
Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds47                                    © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affil...
Market research is all in your head: fMRI machinesand media48                                        © Deloitte & Touche L...
49   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Market research is all in your head: fMRI machinesand media50                                        © Deloitte & Touche L...
It’s a “brand” new day for online ads                                     2010 U.S. measured media   2010 U.S. online medi...
It’s a “brand” new day for online ads                                           2012 Ad Spending % Growth 60 50 40 30 20 1...
It’s a “brand” new day for online ads53                                      © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entiti...
54   © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
It’s a “brand” new day for online ads55                                      © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entiti...
TMT Predictions customized events Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry! • Email Dun...
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TMT Predictions 2012

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  1. 1. TMT Predictions .2012June 12, 2012
  2. 2. We are “predictions experts” Not forecasters Not futurists1 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  3. 3. “Deloitte predicts that a new generation of consumer oriented tablet computers will sell 10-12 million units in 2010.” Predictions launch Fairmont Montréal January 19, 20102 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  4. 4. 2011 TMT Predictions.Report CardJanuary 20123 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  5. 5. 2011 Predictions report cardTechnology Smartphones and tablets: More than half of all computers aren’t computers anymore Operating system diversity: No standard emerges on the smartphone or tablet Tablets in the enterprise: More than just a toy eGov: From option to obligation Online regulation ratchets up, but cookies live on Squeezing the electrons in: Batteries don’t follow Moore’s Law Hydrogen comes out of hiding: The alternative alternative energy source Legend Didn’t come true Came true, but less than Came true exactly as as we predicted we predicted. At least so far much as we predicted4 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  6. 6. 2011 Predictions report cardMedia Television’s “super media” status strengthens DVRs proliferate! The 30 second spot doesn’t die! Push beats pull in the battle for the television viewer Social network advertising: How big can it get? Games go online and on sale: The audience grows, but at what price? Keeping the life in live: A&R diversifies Pop goes pop-up: Music retail goes seasonal and temporary Legend Didn’t come true Came true, but less than Came true exactly as as we predicted we predicted. At least so far much as we predicted5 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  7. 7. 2011 Predictions report cardTelecommunications Getting to 4G cheaply: Will many carriers opt for 3.5G instead? Wi-Fi complements cellular broadband for “data on the move” What is “in store” for Wi-Fi: Online comparison shopping on aisle 3 Video calling: The base goes mainstream, but usage remains niche Legend Didn’t come true Came true, but less than Came true exactly as as we predicted we predicted. At least so far much as we predicted6 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  8. 8. Total Prediction Accuracy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 2008 2009 2010 2011 20127 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  9. 9. Mythbusters8 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  10. 10. We are in the post-PC era* Internet accessing device units Internet device hours/month 1.5B 200 300B 0.2B 30 6B 1.4B 60 84B9 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  11. 11. 10 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  12. 12. 11 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  13. 13. 12 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  14. 14. 13 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  15. 15. 14 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  16. 16. 15 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  17. 17. 16 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  18. 18. The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion17 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  19. 19. The $100 ‘smartphone’ reaches the first half billion18 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  20. 20. Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges19 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  21. 21. Hard times for the hard disk: solid state storage surges20 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  22. 22. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner21 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  23. 23. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner22 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  24. 24. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner23 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  25. 25. It takes two to tablet: the rise of the multi-tablet owner24 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  26. 26. 25 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  27. 27. 26 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  28. 28. All aboard for the catch-up commuter thanks to theportable DVR27 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  29. 29. All aboard for the catch-up commuter thank to theportable DVR28 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  30. 30. 29 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  31. 31. The schedule dominates, still30 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  32. 32. 31 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  33. 33. 32 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  34. 34. 33 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  35. 35. 34 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  36. 36. 35 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  37. 37. 36 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  38. 38. 37 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  39. 39. 10080 I Love Paying for TV60 I Am Seriously40 Considering Cancelling I Plan to Cancel20 Source: Tremor Video and Magid 0 38 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  40. 40. 1008060 Cord Keepers40 Cord Cutters20 0 39 2011 2013 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  41. 41. 100 10 Cord Keepers 1 Cord Cutters 0.10.01 40 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  42. 42. 41 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  43. 43. 42 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  44. 44. 43 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  45. 45. 57 4.2% of all hours 145 228 LightestMillions ofhours of TV Fourthwatched per 333day by all MiddleAmericans,grouped by Secondquintiles Heaviest 592Source: Nielsen 44 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  46. 46. 45 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  47. 47. Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds46 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  48. 48. Consumer tech demand defies the economic head winds47 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  49. 49. Market research is all in your head: fMRI machinesand media48 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  50. 50. 49 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  51. 51. Market research is all in your head: fMRI machinesand media50 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  52. 52. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads 2010 U.S. measured media 2010 U.S. online media spend Branding spend $149 Billion $26 Billion 61% $91B $6B $20B response Direct 39% $58BSource: Brand.net analysis based on Barclays Capital and DMA51 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  53. 53. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads 2012 Ad Spending % Growth 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 All ads All online Online brandSource: Zenith Optimedia and Deloitte estimates52 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  54. 54. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads53 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  55. 55. 54 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  56. 56. It’s a “brand” new day for online ads55 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  57. 57. TMT Predictions customized events Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry! • Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca • Follow me on Twitter: dunstewart • Friend me or subscribe on Facebook: facebook.com/dunstewart56 © Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
  58. 58. 57
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