Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

686 views

Published on

Presentación elaborada por Banco Popular para dar a conocer las posibles estimaciones y previsiones con respecto al desarrollo futuro del negocio y los resultados financieros del Grupo Banco Popular, que se derivan de las expectativas del Grupo Banco Popular y que, por su propia naturaleza, están expuestas a factores, riesgos y las circunstancias que podrían afectar los resultados financieros de tal manera que podría no coincidir con dichas estimaciones y previsiones.

Published in: Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
686
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
25
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Angel Ron: Banco Popular Gs conference Crisis Junio 2010

  1. 1. Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference “Focusing at home or abroad?” Jacobo González-Robatto, Group CFO June 10th 2010
  2. 2. Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Banco Popular solely for purposes of information. It may contain estimates and forecasts with respect to the future development of the business and to the financial results of the Banco Popular Group, which stem from the expectations of the Banco Popular Group and which, by their very nature, are exposed to factors, risks and circumstances that could affect the financial results in such a way that they might not coincide with such estimates and forecasts. These factors include, but are not restricted to, (i) changes in interest rates, exchange rates or any other financial variables, both on the domestic as well as on the international securities markets, (ii) the economic, political, social or regulatory situation, and (iii) competitive pressures. In the event that such factors or other similar factors were to cause the financial results to differ from the estimates and forecasts contained in this presentation, or were to bring about changes in the strategy of the Banco Popular Group, Banco Popular does not undertake to publicly revise the content of this presentation. This presentation contains summarised information and may contain unaudited information. In no case shall its content constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe or acquire any security whatsoever, nor is it intended to serve as a basis for any contract or commitment whatsoever. 2
  3. 3. Agenda 1. Focusing at home or abroad? 2. Conclusions 3
  4. 4. Banco Popular in a nutshell  Banco Popular ranks 3rd amongst Banks in Spain. 5th, including Saving Banks and overall 4th by profits • 2,380 branch network, 14,400 employees, 4.8% overall market share. • €97bn total loans (over 50% mortgage guaranteed), €63bn customer deposits. • 13bn AUMs. 32bn wholesale funding.  A pure retail and commercial bank whose revenue generation capacity outperforms peers.  Clear focus on SMEs (44% loan book) and individuals (30% loan book)  High margins, best in class efficiency and fortress capital are the main hallmarks of Popular.  This superior business model has proven successful in Spain for decades and we are successfully exporting it abroad i.e. to Portugal and Florida. 4
  5. 5. Spanish financial market: a good choice despite current headwinds Net Interest Income 2010e Efficiency ratio 2010e 2,6% 2,5% 71,0% 57,0% 57,0% 59,0% 61,0% 2,1% 1,8% 41,0% 1,2% 1,2% Spanish UK Europe Italy Germany France Spanish Europe Italy UK France Germany Banks Banks RoNAV 2010e 14,3% 10,0% 8,8% 7,5% 7,3% 5,8% Spanish France Europe Italy Germany UK Banks 5 Source: Analyst estimates
  6. 6. Saving banks (cajas) have grown massively over the last years in volumes but not in profitability Lending market share banks vs. cajas Branches market share banks vs. cajas 60% 55% 55% 50% 50% 45% 45% 40% 40% 35% 35% 30% 30% dic-95 dic-96 dic-97 dic-98 dic-99 dic-00 dic-01 dic-02 dic-03 dic-04 dic-05 dic-06 dic-07 dic-08 dic-09 sep-95 sep-97 sep-99 sep-01 sep-03 sep-05 sep-07 sep-09 Banks Saving Banks Banks Saving Banks Business per branch banks vs. cajas Net Profit market share banks vs. cajas 25% 8.400 40% 40% 43% 40% 36% 45% 45% 6.400 4.400 75% 2.400 60% 60% 57% 60% 64% 55% 55% 400 dic-95 dic-96 dic-97 dic-98 dic-99 dic-00 dic-01 dic-02 dic-03 dic-04 dic-05 dic-06 dic-07 dic-08 dic-09 1994 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2008 2009 Banks Saving Banks Banks Saving Banks 6 Source: BoS; Only Spanish operations , Lending market share over system
  7. 7. As a consequence, the restructuring of these saving banks is on the way Merger (under SIP (agreed) development) SIP (agreed) Merger (agreed) Caja Caixa Caixa Caja Caja Caixa Navarra Burgos Canarias Terrassa Manlleu Sabadell Caixa 15,909 12,889 13,318 19,451 12,578 2,642 Nova 31,737 Caixa Merger (agreed) La Caixa Galicia 46,339 SIP (under discussion) 271,873 Caja Caja Caja Caixa Insular Ávila Segovia Manresa Caixa Canarias 7,115 6,172 Caixa 6,545 Girona 9,305 Catalunya Merger (agreed) Caixa 63,649 Caixa 7,815 Caja Caja Laietana Círculo Tarragona Rioja 9,191 5,200 10,929 3,813 Caja Caja Caja España Duero Badajoz 25,253 21,385 4,250 SIP (agreed) SIP (under Caja Madrid discussion) 191,904 CCM Caja Caja Murcia 26,048 Cantabria 22,140 Merger (Under CAM 10,342 Sa Nostra 14,114 75,532 development) Caja Exremadura Caja 7,915 Astur Caixa Caja 15,828 Penedés Granada 23,039 13,759 Caja Sol 29,243 Merger (agreed) Caja Sur Caja 18,690 Guadalajara Unicaja 1,754 34,184 Caja Jaen 981 Source: BoS, Company reports Until now, 37 out of 45 saving banks are in process of being restructured. According to the BoS, the projects consider reductions of the offices of 25% on average and reductions of staff between 15%-18%. 7
  8. 8. Our nationwide presence allow us to take advantage of all market opportunities… provided they are sound and sensible Banco Popular Retail Network distribution (Number of branches) Asturias: 38 Basque Country, Coruña, Lugo: 46 Cantabria: 96 Leon, Navarre: 62 Girona: 74 Vigo 54 Zamora: 50 Lleida: 54 Santiago, Orense: 58 Burgos, Barcelona: 125 Valladolid, Segovia, Aragón, La Rioja: 50 Palencia: 44 Soria: 40 Tarragona: 45 Salamanca, Madrid: 271 Ávila, Valencia, Cáceres: 64 Castellon: Castilla la Mancha: 49 106 Balearic Islands: 103 Alicante: 78 Huelva, Badajoz: 47 Murcia: 51 Granada, Cordoba, Jaen: 106 Sevilla: 100 Almeria: 36 Malaga: 83 Cadiz: 42 Canary Islands: 50 Total Branches Spain: 2,085 Total Staff Spain: 12,639 8
  9. 9. Popular has shown in the past that “organic” is a not always a bad route to increase market share in a consolidation environment… Santander banks market share BBVA banks market share Popular banks market share -300 b.p. -500 b.p. +300 b.p. 14% 14% 28% 27% 11% 8% 17% 18% 1997 2009 1997 2009 1997 2009 Central + Hispano Bilbao + Vizcaya Argentaria BBVA Spain Banco Popular Santander Santander Spain Note: Lending market share vs. banks Source: Company data; BoS 9
  10. 10. As a consequence we are the leading retail and SME franchise Loan to Assets 77% 69% 67% 58% Spanish Spanish Euro Banks Saving Sector banks Claims per volume Cost to Income ratio  Retail Franchise B1 60% 46% 41% B3 31% B4 B5 3rd quarter 08  Quality of  Efficiency B6 4th quarter 08 service B7 Spanish Spanish Euro B8 Banks Saving Sector B9 B 10  Profitability banks B 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pre-Provision profit over loans Source: BoS; Latest available data 2.83% 2.15% 2.12% 1.80% Spanish Saving Euro peers Banks sector 10
  11. 11. … enjoying an unique financial position 2010 M&L Term maturities & funding evolution (€, million) 1.1x pre-funded 3,601 3,273 1,000 Fortress capital 8.74% 2,601 8.00% 2010 Maturities Pre-funded 1Q10 7.75% Second line of liquidity (EUR m) Coverage short term funding 103% 168% Spanish peers Euro sector 16,197 14,321 11 1Q09 1Q10
  12. 12. Agenda 1. Focusing at home or abroad? 2. Conclusions 12
  13. 13. Conclusions • Still cautious with the economic & markets situation: preserving capital & reinforcing liquidity. • This tough environment is leading to a huge re-structuring process of the Spanish system. • Popular has a “winner” business model and is the natural beneficiary from a consolidation process. • Network capillarity is the name of the game, as it gives institutions the capacity to gain market share organically and extract potential synergies • Future growth should maintain the DNA of the group, at home or abroad: SME and family focus, high margins, efficiency and outstanding profitability. 13
  14. 14. 14

×