Predicting the world cup winner for this year football betting


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Predicting the world cup winner for this year football betting

  1. 1. Predicting This Year’s World Cup WinnerWhat does predicting the economy got to do with predicting the World Cupwinner? A lot if you listen to Swiss Bank UBS.In the World Cup 2006, the economists and analysts at the WealthManagement Research at UBS used the statistical model that enabled themto predict market trends and investment decisions and applied it to predictthe World Cup winner.They correctly predicted that Italy would be the champion. They alsosucceeded in getting six of the eight quarter-finalists correct. Their trackrecord also included correctly forecasting three of the four semi-finalists.UBSs model is a purely quantitative analysis and the criteria used are pastperformance, home advantage and teams strength. Now lets discuss themodel:For past performance, so far seven nations have won the championship.(Brazil five times, Italy four times, Germany three times, Argentina andUruguay two times, France and England one time each). So according toUBS, if you pick one of these seven teams, it appears to be a safe bet.As for the home advantage, a third of the past world cups was won by thehost country. Now:# The weather is mild winter in South Africa and it appears that the hostnation may not have the climate advantage. This applies similarly to theAfrican nations in the finals.# Some matches will be played at venues at high altitude. This is a clearadvantage to the host and the South American teams like Brazil.# In every tournament, there is speculation of referees favoring the Hometeam. Will there be many controversial calls helping the host?# This being Africas World Cup, there are many who wonder if an Africannation will advance past the group stage into the quarter-finals for the first
  2. 2. time. In every tournament, there will always be a team which will be thesurprise package. Will this team come from Africa?# And lastly, there is this "outside-of-Europe" syndrome. So far every WorldCup had been won by either an European team or a South American side. NoEuropean team has won outside the comfort of their own continent. Now inSouth Africa, many pundits believe that the South American teams will haveso-called ground advantage.Regarding the strength of the teams, UBS took into consideration the FIFAranking and the bookmakers odds.So which team has UBS picked to be WC 2010 champion? Brazil.Well, your guess is as good as mine on which team will win. My trustedcrystal ball tells me it is Spain.In every World Cup, betting wise, it is a true challenge. The tournament isheld every four years and qualification ends months before the ball is kickedin the first game of the finals. During this time, a lot can change in thefootball world.World Cup means patriotic fervor comes into play. We all have passionatefeelings for a certain team or a certain player which will determine ourdecision.There are 32 teams in the finals so technically there are 32 potential winners.It is interesting to note some characteristics of these teams:* Some teams have a good striking department with tons of firepower, butlacking everywhere else.* Some teams have great talented players but have insane coaches.* Some are perceived as perennial underachievers like Spain and Englandwho seem to choke on the big stage.* Some are tournament teams like Germany and Italy who may beunderrated before the finals, but know how to grind out the results. Well thisis according to past performances.
  3. 3. * Experts have expected Spain to win the last two World Cups - but theynever have.* England are going to win it every time according to the English - but theynever do.And there are some interesting statistics:# No team has successfully defended the WC for a long while. Would the2006 winner Italy be the exception? But Italy has an aging squad and maynot be expected to last all the way. It is easier to reach the top, but muchharder to stay there!# Only once in the last 21 group games has the WC host lost, so wouldSouth Africa be the surprise package?Do you want to crack the soccer live betting market and make the big buckswith 10 winning strategies? Be sure to claim a free copy of the MidweekStrategy by visiting Spain will WinWith one loss in their last 46 matches, Spain arrived at South Africa as oneof the best teams. They are the favorites to lift the World Cup on July 11.They are ahead of Brazil in the eyes of the bookmakers and pundits.Spain (Rank 1) play in Group H against Chile (Rank 17), Switzerland (Rank18) and Honduras (Rank 38).They have been dubbed by the media in the past as "perennialunderachiever". But the faith of their fans may be justified this time as theyhave completely turned the corner after winning Euro 2008. They had builton this success and thereafter had won all of their qualifying games for WC2010, the first team to achieve such a record.The TalentsSpain is a team with polished gems. They boast the talents of FernandoTorres and David Villa up front, Xavi and Andres Iniesta, Xabi Alonso andCesc Fabregas in the middle, Carles Puyol and Gerrard Pique at the back,
  4. 4. and Iker Casillas in goal. The reigning European champion look aformidable bunch.They are stacked with players from the elite leagues in Europe likeBarcelona and Real Madrid. The squad has so much depth that even theimpressive Arsenal captain Fabregas, whom many consider as one of thebest midfielders around, has to warm the bench as a substitute.A well balanced team is needed to have the consistency to get through sucha high level tournament. Look at Argentina. The hope of the entire nationrests on the shoulders of young Messi. But Messi does not perform for hiscountry like he does for Barcelona because he does not have the midfieldmarshals like Xavi and Iniesta behind him to pull the strings. And I shallleave the Argentina manager alone.The Spanish squad has been largely unchanged from the team that won Euro2008. Playing together for years can only foster better understanding on thepitch. The Spain of today exude calm and confidence. Wearing the Europeancrown does such things to you.InjuryOf course injury is a concern but this is the same for every team. Torres andFabregas missed playing the tail end of the league due to injuries. To lookon the bright side, this could actually be a blessing in disguise as they aretotally rested for the World Cup.Spain has a deep squad with comparatively able replacements. They are nota one or two men team like Ivory Coast relying on Drogba.If injuries are inflicted on play-makers, any team will suffer like Rooney forEngland, Lucio and Kaka for Brazil, Messi for Argentina, Sneijder forHolland, etc. Serious injuries are a disaster for every team.PressureBeing ranked No. 1 and as hot favorites, expectations are high. Will Spaincrack under the pressure?Much was made out of their 2-0 defeat in the Confederations Cup semi-finalto USA last June. This ended their 35 match streak without a loss. Some said
  5. 5. Spain buckled under the pressure in that match because they wanted somuch to break Brazils 35 match streak of not suffering a loss. To many thisis considered a great weakness to cave in to pressure.A lot of teams lose matches that they should win. Most important is to learna lesson from the loss. I believe the Spanish had indeed learned a valuablelesson. From then on, they had not lost again.Mental StrengthPsychologists often stress that half of the battle is won in the head.Unfortunately, Spain have the unwanted tag of perennial choker on the bigstage. In the past when the going gets tough, they have gone missing.But now all the players pledged that they know their biggest enemy isthemselves and they have developed greater self belief.ComplacencyThere is a great threat of complacency when facing the likes of Honduras,Chile and Switzerland. I am confident that with an experienced coach in delBosque, the players will know in no uncertain terms that a place in thesecond round is not a formality.Assurance and over-confidence is divided by a very fine line. The last thingthey will think is they have already won the match even before the ball iskicked.How To Beat SpainSome said the way to beat Spain is to follow the tactics of Jose Mourinhowhose Inter Milan succeeded where virtually everybody failed by knockingBarcelona out of the Champions League. The tactic is to have the playersdefend deep in their own half, soaking up the pressure thrown at them andrely on swift counter-attack to score. Well, I am not sure whether there couldbe another "Special One around.ConclusionIf Spain keep their heads they will win World Cup 2010. If they dont, theyare simply beaten by themselves.
  6. 6. Stanley O is a Chartered Accountant and soccer has been his passion sinceyoung. He has extensive experience in soccer betting. You can "crack" thesoccer live betting market and make the "big bucks" once you know how toidentify the money making indicators in the odds movement. The #1complete soccer live betting system available containing 10 winningstrategies with STEP-BY-STEP screen-shots showing you how to spot andmake profitable live bets. Be sure to claim a free copy of the winning"Midweek Strategy" by visiting