2012 year end report
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2012 year end report

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2012 Real Estate Resulats and a look forward

2012 Real Estate Resulats and a look forward

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2012 year end report 2012 year end report Presentation Transcript

  • Annual Real Estate Report 2012**Hint- It’s the best news in 5 years
  • ReviewIn 2012 we saw the real estate recovery gaining momentum in the country and locally.Now that sales and prices are rising again, we can look back and see the bottom was inmid to late 2010. 2011 was inconsistent at best with a few months of increases followedby a few months of decreases. In 2012 we finally had 6 straight months of increasingprices for the first time since 2007. The recovery is encompassing more areas nationallywhich bodes well for price and sales recovery in the Carolinas as we continue to be in-migration states. Local recovery will continue to be stronger in the radius of 20-25 milesfrom Charlotte due to gas prices and the Charlotte job engine.The Allen Tate Company continues to lead the way in the Charlotte Region and theCarolinas. In the Charlotte Region we have closed more than 1/3 of all home sales yearto date and our closed sales increase is 10% higher than our competition average. TheBalatow Team has experienced a 31% closed sales increase largely due to an 89%increase in our inventory of houses listed for sale. Our company and our team are out-performing the market and we want to especially thank everyone who trusted us withtheir home experience this year.At present, interest rates are below 4% and opportunities for home buyers are stilloutstanding. With new construction expected to double in spring 2013, home sellersshould be in top shape and ready to go on the market now or early in 2013 before newconstruction homes are completed.We hope you enjoy the stats and analysis. We want all our clients and friends to be thebest informed real estate owners and consumers in the market.
  • Market Trends • New Construction- Strong Increase early 2013 = Existing home sellers should be on the market now • Interest Rates- Gradual rise as economy improves = future higher cost of ownership per $1 purchased • Rental Rates- High rents begin push back to buying = rising demand for new and existing houses • Home Inventories- Low levels of existing houses for sale = less competition for good houses, shorter time on market • Price Stabilization- Has occurred = gradual, historical, “normal” rise in prices returning • Foreclosure-delinquent inventories down = Less competition from low price inventoryPlease call us at 704-904-8769 or e-mail us atBill.Balatow@allentate.com with any questions about thereview, trends or any of the attached tables.
  • 2012 National Statistics and Trends• Average sales price nationwide was $215,000.• 87% of buyers financed their purchase and average amount financed was 91% of purchase price, a strong sign of a more favorable lending environment.• 40% of home buyers and 38% of home sellers chose their agent from a referral from a relative, neighbor or friend.• 39 percent of recent home buyers were first-time buyers, a slight rise from 2011, but closer to the historical norm of 40 percent.• 65 percent of recent home buyers were married couples—the highest share since 2001.• For 52 percent of home buyers, the first step in the home-buying process was taken online. Over 90% used the internet in their search process.• The typical home buyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 10 homes—a decline from 12 homes in prior year, which speaks to the tightened inventory in many areas.• 89 percent of buyers purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker, a share that steadily increased from 69 percent in 2001.• 88 percent of sellers were assisted by a real estate agent when selling their home. Source: National Association of Realtors
  • ALLEN TATE 13 COUNTY CHARLOTTE REGION COMPARED TO CHARLOTTE MLS Closed Units Listings Taken Allen Tate Jan. – September 2012 6,920 5,899 Percentage Change 26.7 3.6 Charlotte MLS Jan. – September 2012 20,482 36,996 Percentage Change 17.3 -0.8We closed one out of every 3 houses sold in the region!
  • WE‟RE ON FIRE!COMPANYWIDE RESULTS- NC & SC Current* Last Year Change LISTINGS Month to Date 877 797 10.0% Year to Date 12,369 11,521 7.4% SALES Month to Date 1,382 1,078 28.2% Year to Date 18,089 13,947 29.7% CLOSINGS Month to Date 1,346 900 49.6% Year to Date 14,629 11,379 28.6% *As of 11/30/2012
  • Tate Closed Transactions „06 24,446 „07 22,451 „08 15,364 „09 12,610 „10 12,264 „11 12,405 „12 15,211 Estimated
  • NATIONAL PICTURE Home Sales Seasonally Adjusted 4.4 4.8 M Distressed 22%Home Prices $187,400 9% 6 Straight Months Days on Market 8.2 Last August 6.1 This August
  • Mortgage Rate Forecast (Average Rate of 5.5% in 2015 ?) 30-year Mortgage 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re-staff mortgage work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
  • 100 105 70 75 85 90 95 80 110 115Source: NAR 2007 - Jan 2007 - Apr 2007 - Jul 2007 - Oct 2008 - Jan 2008 - Apr 2008 - Jul 2008 - Oct 2009 - Jan 2009 - Apr Homebuyer Tax Credit 2009 - Jul 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jan (Seasonally Adjusted) 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jul 2010 - Oct 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - July Monthly Pending Home Sales Index 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012-Apr 2012 - Jul
  • Annual Existing Home Sales: U-Shaped Recovery In million units 8 7 7.08 6 6.52 5 5.05 5.3 5.6 4 5.02 4.12 4.34 4.18 4.26 4.65 3 2 1 0 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2014 2015 2012 est.11/20/1211/20/12 20
  • Visible Housing Inventory For Sale (Existing home inventory at 8-year low)4,500,0004,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000 500,000 0
  • 100 200 300 500 600 700 400 01964 - Jan1966 - Jan1968 - Jan1970 - Jan1972 - Jan1974 - Jan1976 - Jan1978 - Jan1980 - Jan1982 - Jan1984 - Jan1986 - Jan1988 - Jan1990 - Jan1992 - Jan1994 - Jan1996 - Jan1998 - Jan Visible Housing Inventory For Sale2000 - Jan2002 - Jan2004 - Jan2006 - Jan (Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at 50-year low)2008 - Jan2010 - Jan2012 - Jan
  • 0.5 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.02000 - Q12000 - Q32001 - Q12001 - Q32002 - Q12002 - Q32003 - Q12003 - Q32004 - Q12004 - Q32005 - Q12005 - Q32006 - Q12006 - Q32007 - Q12007 - Q32008 - Q12008 - Q32009 - Q1 million units2009 - Q32010 - Q12010 - Q32011 - Q12011 - Q32012 - Q1 Shadow Inventory … Falling (Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process) 2015 … 5% 2014 … 8% 2011 … 33% 2013 … 15% 2010 … 33% 2012 … 25% Market Share Distressed Sales
  • 12000 14000 16000 10000 2000 6000 8000 4000 02000 - Q12000 - Q32001 - Q12001 - Q3 In $ billion2002 - Q12002 - Q32003 - Q12003 - Q32004 - Q12004 - Q32005 - Q12005 - Q32006 - Q12006 - Q32007 - Q12007 - Q32008 - Q12008 - Q3 Bubble growth Net Equity in Real Estate2009 - Q12009 - Q32010 - Q12010 - Q32011 - Q12011 - Q3 If 4% annual gain2012 - Q1
  • 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 37,000 39,000 41,000 35,0001980 - Q11981 - Q11982 - Q11983 - Q11984 - Q11985 - Q1 In thousands1986 - Q11987 - Q11988 - Q11989 - Q11990 - Q11991 - Q11992 - Q11993 - Q11994 - Q11995 - Q11996 - Q11997 - Q11998 - Q11999 - Q12000 - Q1 Renter Households2001 - Q12002 - Q12003 - Q12004 - Q12005 - Q12006 - Q12007 - Q12008 - Q12009 - Q12010 - Q12011 - Q12012 - Q1
  • 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,0001980 - Q11981 - Q11982 - Q11983 - Q11984 - Q11985 - Q1 In thousands1986 - Q11987 - Q11988 - Q11989 - Q11990 - Q11991 - Q11992 - Q11993 - Q11994 - Q11995 - Q11996 - Q11997 - Q11998 - Q11999 - Q12000 - Q12001 - Q12002 - Q12003 - Q12004 - Q12005 - Q12006 - Q1 Homeowner Households2007 - Q12008 - Q12009 - Q12010 - Q12011 - Q12012 - Q1
  • 59 60 61 62 63 64 66 67 68 69 70 651965 -… %1966 -…1967 -…1968 -…1969 -…1970 -…1971 -…1972 -…1973 -…1974 -…1975 -…1976 -…1977 -…1978 -…1979 -…1980 -…1981 -…1982 -…1983 -…1984 -…1985 -…1986 -…1987 -…1988 -…1989 -…1990 -… (Lowest in 15 years)1991 -…1992 -…1993 -…1994 -…1995 -…1996 -…1997 -…1998 -…1999 -…2000 -…2001 -…2002 -…2003 -… Homeownership Rate at 65.5%2004 -…2005 -…2006 -…2007 -…2008 -…2009 -…2010 -…2011 -…2012 -…
  • 2011 2012 2013 2014 History Forecast Forecast ForecastGDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.5% 3.1%Existing Home 4.26 million 4.64 million 5.05 million 5.3 millionSalesNew Home 301,000 368,000 575,000 650,000SalesHousing Starts 612,000 776,000 1,128,000 1,300,000Existing Home $166,100 $176,100 $185,200 $195,000PriceFed Funds 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%Rate30-yr Mortgage 4.7% 3.7% 4.0% 4.6%
  • Thanks for the opportunity to present our report and please call or e-mail with any questions.