2011 Wireless Industry Predictions

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Assessing 2011 Predictions for the Wireless Industry includes a collection of predictions from industry pundits related to this year’s most exciting wireless technology trends.

The paper then offers analysis about what the prognosticators got right or wrong, so far in 2011 – as well as “Nexius’ Take” – based on the company’s decade of experience serving Fortune 500 companies and mobile operators worldwide.

Key topics in the paper include:

* Wireless network speed predictions
* 4G market confusion
* The viability of small cell technology
* The value of business analytics
* Cloud computing risks and rewards

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2011 Wireless Industry Predictions

  1. 1. A NEXIUS WHITEPAPER: ASSESSING 2011 PREDICTIONS FOR THE WIRELESS INDUSTRY Presented: June 2011Page 1 www.nexius.com 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  2. 2. NEXIUS 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 - USA Phone: +1 (703) 650-7777 Email: info@nexius.com The copyright in this document belongs to Nexius Solutions Inc. (‘the Owners’). No copyrighted material may be used, sold, transferred, or reproduced in whole or in part in any manner or form or in or on any media to any person, except as authorized by the Owner’s Agreement, the United States Copyright Act, or the prior written consent of the Owners. All brand names and product names mentioned or referred to throughout this publication are fully recognized as the Trademarks or Registered Trademarks of their respective holders. COPYRIGHT © 2011 Nexius Solutions Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVEDPage 2 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  3. 3. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................................................4 THE PREDICTIONS BUZZ ...............................................................................................................................................5 PREDICTION 1: THE NEED FOR SPEED ..........................................................................................................................6 What The Influencers Are Saying ...................................................................................................................................6 Nexius’ Take .................................................................................................................................................................7 PREDICTION 2: THE 4G CONUNDRUM ...........................................................................................................................8 What The Influencers Are Saying ...................................................................................................................................8 Nexius’ Take .................................................................................................................................................................9 PREDICTION 3: ANALYTICS ARE POWER ......................................................................................................................10 What The Influencers Are Saying ..................................................................................................................................10 Nexius’ Take ................................................................................................................................................................11 PREDICTION 4: KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE CLOUDS ......................................................................................................11 What The Influencers Are Saying ................................................................................................................................. 11 Nexius’ Take ............................................................................................................................................................... 12 PREDICTION 5: SMALL CELLS, BIG COVERAGE ..........................................................................................................13 What The Influencers Are Saying ................................................................................................................................. 13 Nexius’ Take ................................................................................................................................................................13 ABOUT NEXIUS ...........................................................................................................................................................15Page 3 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  4. 4. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Analysts – along with press, bloggers, and other industry influencers – have the power to move and make markets. In turn, individual companies have the opportunity to move ahead of the competition by acting on predictions that come to pass. Likewise, a company can fall behind by acting on predictions that fail to materialize. But how does an organization know which predictions to embrace and which to reject? This year, Nexius, the leader in delivering end-to-end wireless services and software solutions to companies worldwide, including AT&T, Qualcomm, Time Warner Cable, and Verizon Wireless, has reviewed some of the most exciting predictions made by wireless industry analysts as well as press, bloggers, and other industry influencers. Here is what we found: The Need for Speed – Expect significant 4G coverage, with speeds ranging from 2 to 32 Mbps. Also expect significant 3G capacity challenges. Operator success in the age of smartphones and soaring data demands requires proper network design and deployment as well as precise SLA execution. The 4G Conundrum – Bottom line, most consumers have no idea what 4G means. Enterprise adoption of 4G will surge with the launch of mobile VoIP. Mobile WiMAX, however, will face challenges as LTE becomes the technology of choice for mobile operators. Analytics are Power – Soon, wireless executives will no longer have to look backward to move forward. Next-generation analytics and business intelligence systems replace historical review with future predictions, leveraging increasing computing power and connectivity. The lingering concern? End user privacy. Keep Your Head in the Clouds – Look forward to cloud-based solutions, including a cloud OS, entering the market. Adoption will grow as the industry tackles issues ranging from lack of contiguous coverage to battery life. Small Cells, Big Coverage – The next big thing in wireless is small cell technology – picocells, femtocells, and distributed antenna systems - (DAS). Rather than erecting large cell towers, operators can expand their networks with small cell sites that are unobtrusive and inexpensive. The 2011 predictions have been made. Act with confidence.Page 4 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  5. 5. THE PREDICTIONS BUZZ What will happen to the wireless industry in the second half of 2011? That is the question on everyone’s mind as we exit the wireless tradeshow season and start to assess the impact of the announcements from large companies and standards bodies in the space. In many industries, the change that happens over the course of a year is subtle at best. In the wireless industry, however, innovation and disruption happen at a breakneck pace. Huge technology breakthroughs are often made on a monthly, and even weekly, basis. Despite the speed of innovation, corporations must set firm business and technology strategies that align with the changes that are anticipated in the wireless industry for the upcoming year. In creating these strategies, many companies first turn to the wireless industry influencers and pundits. This group of technology savvy individuals and firms, such as Gartner and IDC, typically spend much of the first quarter of every year issuing their predictions for major trends the expect to occur over the next 12 months. Whether they are right or wrong, these prognosticators always offer interesting information and insights into the market’s hot areas while giving corporate leaders lots of opinions to assess and evaluate. To support our customers, prospects, and other organizations in their analysis of this year’s trends and in their creation of effective strategies, Nexius has compiled a list of some of the year’s most interesting wireless predictions. Below, we not only share the views of industry influencers and thought leaders, but we also offer our own assessment, based on what we have witnessed in the first half of 2011 and our over decade long experience serving Fortune 500 companies and worldwide operators in this industry. From 4G speeds to detailed analytics, we’ll examine the trends that have the market buzzing, so that you can separate fact from fiction.Page 5 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  6. 6. PREDICTION 1: THE NEED FOR SPEED Today’s consumer is busier than ever before and the desire to be constantly connected, anytime, anywhere is becoming a necessity. To bridge this gap, wireless operators in the United States and around the world are beginning to launch new, high-speed networks that promise unprecedented levels of speed for wireless data connections. But how fast is fast? With 4G technologies promising peak download speeds of 100 Mbps, it seems like it might be worth the time for consumers to upgrade. Are these numbers just hype? Will they actually hold true when launched into production with real consumers using bandwidth-hungry mobile applications? WHAT THE INFLUENCERS ARE SAYING 4G in The Real World – According to InformationWeek, significant portions of the country will be covered by not just one 4G network, but at least three by end of 2011. They wrote in January: “AT&T is preparing to launch its long-term evolution (LTE) network in the middle “The success of 4G may also be its demise.” of 2011. It aims to cover between 75 and 80 million points of presence (POPs) by the end of 2011, but it hasn’t anno unced in which markets. AT&T is building up its HSPA network first and will ramp up speeds of HSPA+ until LTE is ready. Right now, officially, it only offers speeds up to 7.2 Mbps. Pending the T-Mobile merger, AT&T will be well-positioned to offer the most advanced network as the plethora of spectrum will provide the greatest speed and capacity, allowing for significant room for growth.” “Sprint continues to deploy its WiMAX network with partner Clearwire. Sprint says it had about 120 million POPs covered by the end of 2010 in about 70 markets. That number should swell to 200 million by the end of 2011, though the exact number of markets remains unknown. Sprint’s real-world 4G speeds range between 2 Mbps and 7 Mbps. In addition, Sprint has begun its own LTE trials although details on how it will impact the WiMax network are still unclear.” “T-Mobile rebranded its HSPA+ network as 4G (despite how the International Telecommunications Union defines 4G) and is aggressively speeding it up. It already had 200 million POPs blanketed with HSPA+ by the end of 2010 in 100 markets. It is offering speeds of 21 Mbps, and will increase that over time to 42 Mbps, 84 Mbps, and 168 Mbps.” “Verizon Wireless launched its LTE network in late 2010, initially providing coverage to 38 markets and 60 airports. That covers about 110 million POPs. That number will increase over time, though Verizon has not named more markets. Verizon has only indicated that it will take until 2013 to complete its LTE network deployment. When first launched, real-world speeds seen on Verizon’s 4G network ranged all the way up to 32 Mbps, though they averaged closer to 10 Mbps. Make no mistake, 4G is going to play a big role in the long-term success of the wireless network operators over the coming year. Those whose networks consistently deliver the fastest and most reliable service will win out over the others.” 3G Capacity Challenges – Juniper Research predicted that “2010 would be the year in which the surge in mobile data traffic, driven by the consumer smartphone boom, began to place the 3G networks under severe strain. A number of network operators responded by introducing tiered data pricing - a trend which will undoubtedly increase - but as Smartphone adoption continues apace, network capacity will be sorely tested in 2011. Tiered pricing (and the use ofPage 6 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  7. 7. Wi-Fi as capacity relief) may serve to alleviate the problem to a certain extent, but until we see mass deployments of LTE networks (and, equally important, devices that are LTE-capable), then operators face a nervous period of attempting to manage the transition.” Revisiting the M2M Market – KORE Telemetric President and COO Alex Brisbourne, writes in Wireless Week that “while 2010 was indeed a “coming out party” for machine-to-machine (M2M) connections among Tier 1 carriers, 2011 will see them begin to define M2M as a true growth market. While we will see a continuing trend toward more discrete M2M devices - purpose-built for new applications in payment processing, health and wellness management, personal tracking and exception-based industrial monitoring - wireless executives also will come to grips with market size believability. Impracticable views that connected machines could easily outnumber connected humans by 50 to 1 only lead to disappointment. The real action area for 2011, however, will be business models, both to reconcile carrier desires for an all-3G world with the commercial advantages of 2G M2M solutions, as well as to close the loop on solid value models - particularly in important segments such as healthcare and environmental controls. These are the pressing questions that will need to be asked and answered in the coming year.” NEXIUS’ TAKE The need for speed is real, but the speeds being advertised mean absolutely nothing if operators’ backbones are not upgraded. LTE will drive data usage but achieving theoretical speeds will not happen, not even close. The gating factors will be the backbone and bandwidth availability to the site. Peak throughput will be shared and actual bandwidth will be significantly lower. LTE will be superior if designed properly and if user patterns are predictable. Baring that, the success of 4G may also be its demise. Why do you think some operators are blocking data intensive applications such as Skype and Slingbox on their 3G networks and implementing caps on data usage? It only takes a handful of Slingbox users accessing a single cell site to disrupt service for the serving area. Add a couple of Skype video calls and you are back to 2G network speeds, that is if your data session request does not time out. Operators will need to upgrade their current backhaul and backbones in order to support the data usage and application explosion as upgrading the RAN itself just will not cut it. We believe that LTE will slow the technology standards advancement and the focus will be shifted from the RAN to the backhaul where the backhaul infrastructure will be advancing far more rapidly than that of which was traditionally the RAN. With M2M and smart grid solutions entering the marketplace, the network and sites will become congested if not designed properly. Not meeting SLAs may mean significant costs for the operators. Operators must make sure they design the proper network – at the site, backhaul, and backbone. It’s important to determine the correct service level to provide for specific customers based on each customer’s projected usage, and to, in turn, provide assurance to customers that the operator is indeed meeting the contracted SLA. The applications being considered for 4G will certainly exceed the capacity of the operators backhaul and for many of their backbone networks. Demand for bandwidth-hungry applications such as HD Video is increasing, likely striking fear in some of today’s network capacity managers and planners. As they move to 4G, many operators are facing the challenge of upgrading the legacy TDM-based backhaul networks to IP-based systems. These efforts require a blended strategy ofPage 7 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  8. 8. access types best determined after business-case development and technical evaluations to design and deployment of selected technology options. The methodologies for designing and planning a 4G network require a departure from those used for 2G and 3G networks. Simply following a similar concept used for the early 3G deployments – using a one-to-one deployment model – likely will not meet the performance expectations of consumers or operators. Today’s operators require a network design to ensure their customers have the best experience possible. The challenge for most operators, however, is to understand what customers actually experience on the network, across all the available voice and data applications. By early 2012, we expect most tier-1 operators will begin a meticulous analysis of handset data from 4G deployments to gain a holistic view of the consumer experience that enables them to optimize it in the future. PREDICTION 2: THE 4G CONUNDRUM What is 4G? It depends on who you ask. Marketing people have embraced the term “4G” wholeheartedly and are now using it to describe everything from mobile applications to the name of a new phone, regardless of whether the products have anything to do with the new high-speed wireless networks being rolled out. With operators claiming that everything from WiMAX to LTE to HSPA+ are all 4G standards, the 4G conundrum runs even deeper. Is 4G only a term reserved for LTE networks or will WiMAX and HSPA+ meet the speed requirements? The result is a lot of confusion. Wireless executives are now perplexed about what 4G really means and how they should incorporate that messaging into their future plans. Enterprises are also wondering if 4G is something they should embrace this year. The press is contemplating what networks and speeds really constitute 4G, now and in the future. Even consumers are a bit baffled and unsure if 4G is something they should really invest in. What does this new term “4G” really mean and will companies be using it correctly during the remainder of the year? WHAT THE INFLUENCERS ARE SAYING From G to Gee Whiz – inCode notes that “mobile operators have been incorporating 3G and 4G marketing messages throughout 2010 to demonstrate their use of the most advanced technology “Generation.” In the last few months, the industry has seen this “G” war escalate even though most consumers have no idea what the “G’s” mean, except that a higher number must be better. In 2011, expect one major cellular operator to buck this marketing dynamic and create a new basis for competitive positioning. With the proliferation of powerful 1 GHz processors, the application marketplace and chic user-interfaces powering a more enjoyable customer interaction, we will begin to see operators downplay the importance of the network “G” and emphasize the “gee whiz” factors of user experience and quality.” “The term “4G” will continue 4G Gets an Enterprise “F” – Yankee Group predicts that “competition in the U.S. to be used and slaughtered.” will create a 4G marketing mess. As operators slap the “4G” moniker on everything from WiMAX and LTE to HSPA+, confusion will abound. Meanwhile, 4G will fail to win the enterprise. Currently, less than a third of enterprise decision-makers believe 4G is important; that number won’t budge by year end.” WiMAX Wanes – InformationWeek predicts “though it has a lot of support from Sprint and Clearwire (and handful of other network operators around the globe), mobilePage 8 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  9. 9. WiMAX is on uneven footing. The bulk of the world’s wireless network operators have sided with LTE as their eventual 4G technology of choice. In the United States, AT&T, Verizon Wireless, MetroPCS, Leap Wireless, U.S. Cellular, Cellular South, and others have already begun work building out LTE. Even Sprint and Clearwire’s support of its own network has wavered in recent months. Both companies’ CEOs have independently said that they are evaluating a switch from WiMAX to LTE. The companies have conducted LTE trials, and will make a change if that’s the way the market drives them. Given the general direction the industry is taking towards LTE, it is a matter of time before the companies announce their dedication to a single technology. If mobile WiMax survives the first half of the year financially, perhaps WiMAX will live on, but it will come with various long-term challenges”. NEXIUS’ TAKE When it comes to the 4G mess, we agree. The market is confused about what 4G is. The term “4G” will still be used and slaughtered, but as with 2G and 3G, we will see the interval stages of the 3.5G and 3.75G. We will also see that the rest of the world gets it right. They will not call anything 4G until LTE is deployed. Only in the US will there be a 4G marketing war. Will HSPA+ be the foundation for 4G? No. HSPA/+ is 3G, but there will be .25 increments until full data services are released. (Of course, you wouldn’t know this by the huge “4G” marketing campaign T-Mobile has rolled out so far this year.) You might not know this from the marketing campaigns that operators have launched this year, but it’s Nexius opinion that the Gs relate to the network infrastructure and its capabilities, not necessarily to the software that provides higher capacity or throughputs. 1G was analog, 2G was digital, 3G was circuit/packet mix, and 4G will be pure-packet based. With regard to 4G adoption in the enterprise, initial 4G will not have mainstream voice services and will be data centric. That will keep enterprise adoption low. However, with the launch of mobile VoIP and converged applications, enterprises will adopt rapidly. Going forward, content and services will drive the shift in the enterprise mindset. The proliferation of 4G-ready inbuidling solutions (e.g., femtocells, picocells, passive and active distributed antenna systems) and their use in a growing number of airports, hotels, shopping malls, offices, sports venues, and other sites, presents enterprises with exciting new options and decisions. Mobile WiMAX can be considered 4G but will have its share of challenges, due in large part to issues with coverage, lack of roaming partners, and the “sole network provider” syndrome. In fact, we’re already seeing signs of mobile WiMAX demise in Clearwire’s sale of spectrum to T-Mobile as well as its decision to launch LTE market trials. And while WiMAX has a significant footprint internationally in the fixed wireless world, the mobile version of the standard is not enjoying as much success due to business and technical issues: 1. WiMAX is an outsider. WiMAX was not supported by the cellular industry. It was standardized at IEEE, not 3GPP or 3GPP2. It was supported by Intel, not Qualcomm, Nokia or Ericsson. As a non-3GPP technology, WiMAX was cut off from the evolution roadmap by the major wireless operators and never got strong support from the major equipment vendors. 2. Spectrum struggles. The support that WiMAX did get was for a deployment in spectral band traditionally associatedPage 9 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  10. 10. with fixed wireless services (MMDS). But to penetrate the cellular operator market, WiMAX would have needed much better support of the frequency bands that they traditionally operate in. 3. Economies of Scale. LTE is on the roadmap for operators with 5+ billion subscribers. WiMAX has potential for 100s of millions. That disparity drives up the cost of WiMAX, and more important, it drives all the resources in the industry – R&D, manufacturing, etc. – toward making LTE happen. And WiMAX has to compete with those resources. PREDICTION 3: ANALYTICS ARE POWER Confused about where your business should be headed? Take a look at your data. Often a detailed review of the user statistics, financial results, marketing data, customer service benchmarks, and operational information can provide detailed insights to support important business decisions. In 2011, more companies are tapping into the power of data analytics to spearhead their roadmaps for the upcoming year. These endeavors can be costly, however, leaving many companies to wonder if the results are truly worth it. Does analytics offer a critical competitive advantage for companies and do the benefits outweigh the costs? WHAT THE INFLUENCERS ARE SAYING Analytics for Operations. Gartner believes “the increasing compute capabilities of computers, including mobile devices along with improving connectivity, are enabling a shift in how businesses support operational decisions. It is becoming possible to run simulations or models to predict the future outcome, rather than to simply provide backward-looking data about past interactions, and to do these predictions in real-time to support each individual business action. While this may require significant changes to existing operational and business intelligence infrastructure, the potential exists to unlock significant improvements in business results and other success rates.” Analytics for Differentiation. Ovum predicts that “business analytics will remain an “Privacy will be the limiting important tool for organizations that want to differentiate themselves from the factor in gaining insight competition in 2011. The technologies’ ability to improve decision-making, identify to the end user.” new business opportunities, maximize cost savings and detect inefficiencies is driving its importance for organizations.”Page 10 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  11. 11. NEXIUS’ TAKE Analytics and next-generation business intelligence hold exciting promise for operators who want to learn more about: 1. How their customers are using their network. 2. The services their customers are using. 3. Where in the operator’s footprint the services are being used. An overriding concern here will be respecting and protecting the customer’s privacy as operators attempt to obtain and utilize the data they are seeking. Privacy will be the limiting factor in gaining insight to the end user. The next challenge operators will face is how to digest the millions of records that would be generated and analyzed daily. Here, next-generation business intelligence systems will consolidate this information into an easy-to-view format and provide actionable information and tasks. These kinds of systems will enable a proactive approach to operational decisions that stands in contrast to the reactive mode most of enterprises use. Products, such as comScore’s xPlore (acquired from Nexius in 2010) let network operators enhance operational efficiencies and prioritize capital expenditures based on customer demand in a constantly changing environment. Nexius anticipates these types of tools and resources will be further adopted by operators over the remainder of the year and the thirst for quantitative insights grows. PREDICTION 4: KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE CLOUDS Perhaps no word has been more readily buzzed about during the past year than “cloud computing.” The idea of moving services, software, and technology infrastructure onto the Internet ‘cloud’ or network (where they will be always available) presents the hope for huge cost savings for corporations. However, many remain skeptical about the actual benefits of cloud computing and are looking for practical ways to evaluate whether cloud computing is the correct decision for their businesses. While the flexibility and scalability of cloud computing are attractive, many question if this is an area that needs to be invested in right now. After all the buzz settles down, will we reflect on 2011 as the year that cloud computing services materialize en masse and, if so, how will the implementations take place? WHAT THE INFLUENCERS ARE SAYING “2011 is clearly bringing the first step of mobile cloud computing Waiting for the Cloud OS. Juniper Research states that “so far, mobile operating where services are enabled systems have followed their PC-based cousins, the structure for which was formulated locally within the cloud rather than back at the handset.” when the web was in its infancy. Consequently, for some time now, industry figures have been talking about the potential for applications to run from a ‘cloud.’ Google announced the start of a new project, the Chrome cloud OS in 2009; and the latest is that it will be launched in early 2011. With network reach and reliability reaching a point where cloud-based solutions can be considered viable, and remote servers already being used to allow the mobile internet and email, we believe 2011 will see the launch of the first cloud OS for mobile.”Page 11 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  12. 12. Reviewing the Cloud Options. Gartner sees “a spectrum of cloud computing services, from open public to closed private. The next three years will see the delivery of a range of cloud service approaches that fall between these two extremes. Vendors will offer packaged, private cloud implementations that deliver the vendor’s public cloud service technologies (software and/or hardware) and methodologies (i.e., best practices to build and run the service) in a form that can be implemented inside the consumer’s enterprise. Many will also offer management services to remotely manage the cloud service implementation. Gartner expects large enterprises to have a dynamic sourcing team in place by 2012 that is responsible for ongoing cloud sourcing decisions and management.” Expecting Exponential Growth. In Wireless Week, Model Metrics CTO John Barnes writes that “businesses are adopting smart phones, iPads and tablets in parallel with cloud computing. Demand will rise for enterprise-class mobile cloud solutions that are scalable, highly customizable and easy to implement in order to make cloud computing work for mobile workforces and to support the growing trend of more business interactions taking place on mobile devices. According to Juniper Research, the mobile cloud computing market is expected to reach $9.5B by 2014, with the majority driven by businesses. In 2011, a combination of internal and cloud resources, online and on a variety of mobile devices, also will create new management challenges. The new distributed work force needs to take critical business functionality with them, and they’re bringing their own phones to the party. Businesses will be expected marry cloud and mobility successfully by developing a long-term mobile cloud strategy to qualify what applications are necessary for their mobile work forces to be successful.” NEXIUS’ TAKE This year, mobile cloud-based solutions have begun to enter the market but have fallen short of full cloud services due to lack of contiguous coverage. Thin mobile devices will require contiguous IP coverage, which is not yet quite there. Cloud-based applications have started to hit mainstream but require a fat client where processing and local files still reside and synch to the hosted source. Will there be a full, cloud-based mobile OS by the end of 2011? We don’t think so. There are too many coverage holes. In the future, wtih blanket 3G coverage and Wi-Fi hotspots on every corner, a cloud OS will become a major initiative. For this to be successful, there needs to be an automatic handoff/in (hard or soft) to Wi-Fi without killing the battery life of the device. Having the device automatically select the network seamlessly will be essential to successful operation. Devices and batteries still have a way to go. Other issues must be addressed to foster mobile cloud adoption, including: 1. Adaptation. With cloud-based offerings, similar services are offered by different applications that are specifically designed for cloud. This will require adaptation, e.g., moving from ‘Microsofts’ to other applications to get the job done. Also, similar applications will be providing the same service (like the mobile apps), so the challenge will be identifying and using a standard application across the enterprise for a specific service/function. 2. Costs. Initially, cloud-based services will be cheaper due to the ‘leasing’ cost structure and close-to-zero investment. But cost benefits must be evaluated upfront to consider the benefits for the long run. 3. Clients. Thin clients will be leveraged as portable devices and consumers will require cloud access in to be always available, in the same way as they expect their cell phone signal. Also, thin clients will have similar challenges as cell phones, e.g., battery life, hand-offs, signal strength, etc.Page 12 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  13. 13. 4. Licensing. Applications that will be migrated to and made available in the cloud will require a new licensing model. Instead of a per-install model, the cost will be based on usage or subscription. Application owners will have to quickly adapt this model to survive or at least hold their market reach. However, with large companies like Apple and Amazon making major cloud computing product launches this year, the stage is set for a move from PC-based cloud computing to mobile cloud computing. 2011 is clearly bringing the first step of mobile cloud computing where services are enabled locally within the cloud rather than back at the handset. This enablement will trigger the long-awaited mobile application convergence to become a reality. PREDICTION 5: SMALL CELLS, BIG COVERAGE The current explosion in wireless data services has been well documented in the last year. Several operators have been lambasted in the press because popular smart phones and data intensive applications are exposing capacity bottlenecks in large metropolitan markets. Could the solution for this big problem lay with a very small cell site? Small cells, including picocells and femtocells, are a technology that many companies have started showcasing and implementing to improve network coverage without the obstructive views and costly implementations that erecting large cell towers involve. The benefits of expanding a network through small cells that only require hardware the size of a wireless router to implement could also mean much improved capacity for calls and data traffic. However, companies are concerned that this technology may not be commercially ready. Even if the technology is mature enough, companies don’t necessarily understand the best approaches for implementation. Many question if localized cell solutions will be the de-facto standard for how networks expand in the future, or if there are alternative technologies that need to be assessed. WHAT THE INFLUENCERS ARE SAYING Small Cells’ Pivotal Role. Maravedis, a leading analyst firm that focuses on 4G and broadband wireless technologies and markets, writes: “The recent CTIA exposition in Orlando demonstrated the industry- wide agreement that the only solution to the evolving wireless broadband capacity “The small cell technology of crunch is a heterogenous access network composed of macro cells, plus a range of choice will be outdoor DAS.” small cell solutions: microcells and picocells, carrier WiFi, and the view of most participants, femtocells. Small-cell base stations, many of them strand-mounted for minimum-footprint deployment, were visible on stands all over the show, many from small companies with WiMAX and WiFi backgrounds. The new importance of small cells is likely to bring even more pressure to bear on the large Tier-1 OEMs, and alter the existing order of the industry and established supplier/operator relationships.” FierceBroadbandWireless echoed those sentiments when it reported: “One network type won’t do it all. The notion of small-cell architecture is gaining momentum as operators deal with the data deluge on their 3G networks and map out their LTE plans. Once somewhat of an afterthought, small-cell architectures--whereby operators fill in their macroPage 13 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  14. 14. coverage with picocells to boost capacity, throughput and coverage--may very well be in the forefront of new LTE networks. Femtocells also should finally pick up steam in 2011, and operators will look at additional ways to offload data to WiFi networks. In the future, TD-LTE, along with FDD LTE deployments, will be the norm, and some operators will mix LTE and WiMAX.” NEXIUS’ TAKE Small cells are vital to the growth of wireless, and Nexius believes that in many cases, the small cell technology of choice will be outdoor DAS. DAS uses a network of compact antenna nodes connected to a common source to provide wireless service within a geographic area or structure. Basically, DAS opens the door to almost unlimited wireless bandwidth inside a building or on a campus. Better, DAS is device- and protocol-agnostic, i.e., future-proof. It can handle 2G and 3G technologies as well as newer 4G protocols – and future communications technologies, too. Better still, DAS is flexible and allows for adoption at a variety of price points and installation sizes and deployment models. Local ISPs will also provide resistance to the adoption of femtocells until new business models have been implemented as the ISP is baring the backhaul cost of the mobile operator and currently are not being compensated for doing so. This has led to the implementation of data usage caps or the complete blocking of femtocell data traffic by some ISPs. Large- scale adoption of femtocells outside of mobile operators, which provide ISP services, will be significantly dependent on the implementation of new business models where the ISP is compensated for the mobile data being transported.Page 14 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  15. 15. ABOUT NEXIUS Nexius is the leader in delivering end-to-end wireless services and software solutions to industries worldwide. The company’s over 350 dedicated professionals serve as subject matter experts, providing Technology Strategy, Network Services, and Software Solutions to many of today’s leading organizations. Nexius closely collaborates with their customers to deliver the strategic insight, proven experience, and practical knowledge necessary to transform their business through wireless. Nexius is on a steady path of growth in the US and globally, ranking as the 103rd fastest growing business in America by Entrepreneur Magazine and in the Deloitte Technology Fast 50 and the Inc. 500 lists. Headquartered in Reston, Virginia, Nexius has offices in Washington DC, Seattle, Dallas, Dubai, Mexico, and Argentina. Additional information is available at +1 (703) 650-7777, info@nexius.com, Twitter: @NexiusInc, and http://www.nexius.com. Additional information is available at: Phone: +1 (703) 650-7777 Email: info@nexius.com Web: www.nexius.com Twitter: @NexiusInc Eric Zeman. (January 20, 2011). Top 11 Mobile Predictions For 2011. Infoweek. February 6, 2011, http://mobile.informationweek.com/10994/show/1802b952062156758ab0e37115d69ac7&t=1f5a79002e780857924f8f4525b076ff Daniel Ashdown. (December 2, 2010). Top Ten Wireless Predictions for 2011. Juniper Research. January 12, 2011, http://juniperresearch.com/viewpressrelease.php?pr=218 Alex Brisbourne. (November 24, 2010). 2011 Predictions. Wireless Week. January 30, 2011, http://www.wirelessweek.com/Articles/2010/12/2011-Predictions/ inCode. (December 16, 2010). “Nobody Gives a “G”. inCode. February 6, 2011, http://www.incodetel.com/pdf/whitepapers/inCode%20Top%2010%202011%20Press%20Release_12-17-2010%20FINAL.pdf Jason Armitage. (December 20, 2010). Yankee Group’s 2011 Predictions: 4G Fuels the Decade of Disruption. Yankee Group. February 6, 2011, http://web.yankeegroup.com/rs/yankeegroup/ images/2011Predictions_Dec2010.pdf Eric Zeman. (January 20, 2011). Top 11 Mobile Predictions For 2011. Infoweek. February 6, 2011, http://mobile.informationweek.com/10994/show/1802b952062156758ab0e37115d69ac7&t=1f5a 79002e780857924f8f4525b076ff David Cearley. (October 19, 2010). Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2011. Gartner. January 30, 2011, http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1454221 Ovum. (November 30, 2010). The top ten enterprise IT trends for 2011. Ovum. February 6, 2011. http://about.datamonitor.com/media/archives/5153 Daniel Ashdown. (December 2, 2010). Top Ten Wireless Predictions for 2011. Juniper Research. January 12, 2011, http://juniperresearch.com/viewpressrelease.php?pr=218 David Cearley. October 19, 2010. Gartner Identifies the Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2011. Gartner. January 30, 2011, http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1454221 John Barnes. (November 24, 2010). 2011 Predictions. Wireless Week. January 30, 2011, http://www.wirelessweek.com/Articles/2010/12/2011-Predictions/ Maravedis. (April 7, 2011). Big Money in Small Cells, or The Future Hangs by a Strand. LTE World. April 11, 2011http://lteworld.org/blog/big-money-small-cells-or-future-hangs-strand Lynette Luna. (January 3, 2011). Fierce Broadband Wireless Predictions for 2011. FierceBroadbandWireless. January 12, 2011. http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/special-reports/ fiercebroadbandwireless-predictions-2011 Image Sources: Figure 1: http://web1syndication.com/seo/site-speed-google-algorithms/ Figure 2: http://htcsource.com/2010/06/what-will-you-do-first-with-evo-sprint-ad-campaign-hits-the-web/ Figure 3: http://www.hoax-slayer.com/privacy.html Figure 4: http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2011/03/07/how-the-mobile-cloud-can-boost-app-development/ Figure 5: http://www.sidecutreports.com/2011/05/03/atts-das-antenna-caught-in-the-wild/Page 15 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476
  16. 16. Page 16 11951 Freedom Drive 13th Floor, Reston, VA 20190 Tel: (703) 650 7777 Fax: (703) 991 8476

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