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- 1. GDP per capita of Morocco 2010 Morocco GDP $5,000.00 $4,500.00 $4,000.00 $3,500.00 $3,000.00 GDP per capita $2,500.00 $2,000.00 Morocco GDP per capita $1,500.00 (PPP) $1,000.00 $500.00 $- 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year ALGONQUIN COLLEGE Time series project | Badr Moussadek
- 2. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 THE FOUR COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES: ....................................................................................................... 3 THE IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................................................................................. 4 Trend Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Seasonal Variation ........................................................................................................................................ 6 Cyclical and irregular variation ..................................................................................................................... 7 AGRICULTURE ............................................................................................................................................. 7 MINING..................................................................................................................................................... 8 MARITIME FISHING ...................................................................................................................................... 8 Forecasting .................................................................................................................................................... 9 Discussion...................................................................................................................................................... 9 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 10 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Algonquin College Page 2
- 3. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek Gross Domestic Product per capita of Morocco Introduction GDP per Capita or (GDP ppp) is a very good approach to know the value of goods produced per person in the country, in fact, GDP per capita is the total GDP of a country for one year divided by the total number of the people of that country; furthermore, the GDP is the total of the consumption, investment, Government expenditure, and net export: GDP = Y=C+I+G+(X-M) And GDP per capita (PPP) = Y/Population. This report will cover the GDP per capita for Morocco, and approach its expenditure and evolution of the past 20 years. In the past 20 years Morocco has known a very good progress in the production of its good and services; hence, it increased its GDP per capita; the table below show the change of GDP per capita for the past 20 years: Year GDP PPP Year GDP PPP 1989 1890.648 2000 2665.813 1990 2035.014 2001 2894.569 1991 2208.318 2002 3002.331 1992 2128.369 2003 3223.642 1993 2113.594 2004 3409.111 1994 2339.687 2005 3573.819 1995 2192.38 2006 3927.195 1996 2463.932 2007 4101.879 1997 2410.109 2008 4362.016 1998 2580.464 2009 4587.107 1999 2589.131 2009 4587.107 THE FOUR COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES: 1. Secular trend: which refers to the long trend of sales, employment, stock price and other business and economic series; for instance, GDP per capita. 2. Cyclical variation: Which refers to the rise and fall of a time series in a period over one year, this is used to refer to the current state of the economy whether it is in Prosperity, Recession, Depression, or Recovery. 3. Seasonal Variation: Which refers to the patterns of change in a time series within one year and tend to repeat themselves year after year. 4. Irregular variation: is subdivide into; a) Episodic: which is unpredictable, but identifiable (strike or economic status) Algonquin College Page 3
- 4. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek b) Residual – Which cannot be identified, and is a feat of chance (Natural Disaster) THE IMPLEMENTATION These factors can be implemented into the trend of the Moroccan GDP per capita to explain its variation and cyclical trend. For instance, the secular trend refers to growth in RGDP therefore, increasing the GDP per capita, that’s why we will see in the graph an upward trend line. The seasonal trend is the change in each quarter of the year in the GDP; to understand that we have to mention that the economy of Morocco is based in some part on Agriculture and Tourism; theses two make almost 20% of total GDP, therefore, this will impact the seasonal change. The Cyclical Trend it depends on general economy of the world along with the Moroccan economy; for example in case of recession (2008 the GDP per capita had been reduced less than the previous year); other economic situation can be seen as well like depression then recovery (2009). The irregular Trend is the hardest because of the episodic fluctuation are unpredictable; but can be identifiable (again the strike of the US economy); the residual fluctuation is not noticeable in this trend since there were no sudden catastrophe events in the past twenty years. Morocco GDP per capita (PPP) 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Morocco GDP per capita (PPP) Linear (Morocco GDP per capita (PPP)) Figure 1 Algonquin College Page 4
- 5. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek Trend Analysis Where b and a are equal to: And Is the slope of the line. Or the average change in GDP per capita for each change of one unit in a time (year or quarter) Is the GDP per capita-intercept. It is the estimated value of GDP per capita when t=0. Above is the equation needed to determine the trend line equation, time is the independent variable and the value of GDP per capita is the dependant variable. Furthermore, we code the independent variable time to make the equation easier to interpret. In other words, we replace the year (first year) by 1(t) and second Algonquin College Page 5
- 6. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek year by 2, and so on. This equation will help us to forecast the data in the future with high accuracy holding other variable constant (ceteris paribus). The slope of the trend line is 14.82. This shows that over the 32 month the GDP per capita increase at rate of $14.82 per quarter. The value of 696.1 is the intercept of the trend line on the Y-axis (i.e., for t=0). The standard before being deseasonalized is showing that the summer is the highest season (or quarter) and the lowest is the winter. 1,600.00 1,400.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 GDP Per Capita 600.00 400.00 Deseasonalized 200.00 Linear (GDP Per Capita) 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Figure 2 Seasonal Variation As each seasonal variation, the GDP per capita seasonal variation is changing over the year by season. The determinant of the Moroccan’ GDP are many, where tourism and agriculture contribute a big part of it. Because these two components are seasonal, the RGDP will tend to be seasonal as well; thus, making the GDP per capita to know a seasonal variation. The highest quarter is the summer this is due to a high entrance of tourism to Morocco that are combined of two parts: first are international tourists and the Algonquin College Page 6
- 7. Time Series: Morocco’ GDP per capita Badr Moussadek second are almost 1.3 million Moroccan living in Europe and other continent (Indicat et aggregats, 2010); furthermore, Morocco was targeting 10 million tourist for this year (2010), where 7,879,000.0 are recorded in 2008 combining international (58% are from French and Spain) and Moroccan residing in exterior (Worldbank data, 2010). On the other hand, most farmers harvest and sell their product in the end of the spring and beginning of the summer (14.6 the total contribution of Agriculture for the year of 2008). The graph below shows the trend of the seasonal variation for one year. Seasonal Index 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 Seasonal 200.0 0.0 Index Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 3 Cyclical and irregular variation The cyclical irregular variation is almost identical to the original data with the summer being the highest and the winter is the lowest in each year; however in this graph we can extinguish the four phases of Morocco economy cyclical , the year 1992 known a drop on the pe

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