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Future of Mobile Media

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Primedia

  1. 1. Technology 2020 Pieter Geldenhuys Institute for Technology Strategy & Innovation Potchefstroom Business School, NWU ITSI Copyright@2010
  2. 2. The Web is dead, long live the Internet ITSI Copyright@2010
  3. 3. Agenda Society ITSI Copyright@2010
  4. 4. What will the future look like? ― The future has already happened, it is just unequally distributed.‖ - William Gibson ITSI Copyright@2010
  5. 5. The Relationship Between Strategy and Scenarios The hypotheses of current strategic analysis are considered in the context of a range of plausible futures created through a facilitated process comprising Internal Analysis & externalScenario Thinking Business Model both internal and experts. Hypothesis Generation Design What Could be What is What Should be ITSI Copyright@2010
  6. 6. In the next decade … 95% of video and DVD stores will close down You will have your own TV channel Augmented Reality will redefine how you see the world  TV stations will carry personalised advertisements Your current cellular number will stop being the primary identifier in your life You will finally be able to see the world from a celebrity's point of view ITSI Copyright@2010
  7. 7. The primary forces ITSI Copyright@2010
  8. 8. The primary forces Moore’s law Processing power will double every 18 months ITSI Copyright@2010
  9. 9. The primary forces Bandwidth - will double every 9 months This revolution will mean very low-cost high-bandwidth communication ITSI Copyright@2010
  10. 10. More information can today be sent over a single cable in a second than was sent over the entire Internet in 2004 in a month. Bell Labs -> new world speed record for fiber-optic transport. This record, 100 petabits per second kilometer, exceeds previous records such as one achieved in May 2009 of 19 petabyes per second per kilometer (Pbps/km) claimed by AT&T, NEC and Corning. ITSI Copyright@2010
  11. 11. How was it done? 155 simultaneous wavelengths of light over a single 7000 km fiber, with optical repeaters every 90 km along the link. Each wavelength carried 100 gigabits per second of traffic to give the fiber a total payload of 15.5 terabits (trillion bits) per second. ITSI Copyright@2010
  12. 12. The primary forces Storewidth is doubling every 12 months. ITSI Copyright@2010
  13. 13. Storewidth "The consumer will have a 5 or 6-terabyte drive by 2009, and will be able to store 25-50,000 CDs —which is all the music on all the labels! That's when we officially reach the point of lunacy!― - Rob Reid, Founder, Listen.com ITSI Copyright@2010
  14. 14. Increased processing power & storewidth ITSI Copyright@2010
  15. 15. The primary forces ITSI Copyright@2010
  16. 16. ITSI Copyright@2010
  17. 17. Industry Trendsin the Ubiquitous Internet Coming Network Society Emerging Cloud Computing 1B+new mobile subscribers TrillionUS$ Internet application mainly in Emerging Markets market The Totally up to Converged value chain: Telecom, 5B+subscribers Building blocks Internet, Software, Media, Electronics Ubiquitous Broadband Of the Exploding Digital Space 300Mnew fixed line BB CyberSphere Thousand Exabyte (1018) digital subscribers, totally up to 600M info 1.2Bnew mobile BB 10times traffic increase, up to subscribers, totally up to 50%-80%annual growth 1.4B 5,000,000,000 subscribers ITSI Copyright@2010
  18. 18. Mobile bandwidth forecasts ITSI Copyright@2010
  19. 19. Bandwidth Explosion DoCoMo Mbps Press release March 26th, 2008 200 15 y 5y …―LTE commercial deployment 2010‖ 180 160 140 100-200x 120 100 80 60 35x 40 20 0 EDGE WCDMA HSPA HSPA+ I-HSPA WiMAX WiMAX LTE 10 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz SHDSL ADSL ADSL2 ADSL2+ VDSL VDSL2 DSM L3 Faster growth than anytime in history! ITSI Copyright@2010
  20. 20. A new era of wireless connectivity 3.5 – 3.7 GHz WiMax 2.5 – 2.7 GHz WiMax / LTE 2.4 GHz WiFi 2.1 GHz WCDMA 1800 MHz PSM 900 MHz GSM 850 MHz CDMA 2000 692 – 850 MHz UTRAN LTE Normative Range ITSI Bandwidth Copyright@2010
  21. 21. The Digital Value chain Intelligence Identification Power App. or ID & Intel Local Users Content Portal Net Core Billing Edge loop Hard OS Browser App. provider ITSI Copyright@2010
  22. 22. The Digital Value chain Open Open Network Network App. or Local Users Content Billing Portals Net Core OS Browser Intel. ID App. loop Hard provider App. or ID & Intel. Local Users Content Portals Net Core OS Browser App. Billing Edge loop Hard provider Controlled Network ITSI Copyright@2010
  23. 23. Abundance ―Survival dictates that human beings develop an ethics and aesthetics that favour exploiting fully those recourses that exist in abundance and economizing on those items that are in short supply.‖ - Taichi Sakaiya ITSI Copyright@2010
  24. 24. Exploiting the abundance "Bandwidth is doubling every 8-9 months. Storage is doubling every 12 months. Computing power is doubling every 18 months. We're here to talk about exploiting the abundance." - Niel Robertson, Technologist-in-Residence, Mobius Venture Capital, and former Technology Advisor, Exodus ITSI Copyright@2010
  25. 25. The ubiquitous Internet will need to be redefined if we are to understand its true potential. ITSI Copyright@2010
  26. 26. Visible & Audible spectrum ITSI Copyright@2010
  27. 27. The Internet is accessible everywhere on the planet ITSI Copyright@2010
  28. 28. The story so far The Internet is all around us, pervasive, intelligent and invisible, not confined to the narrow boundaries of our mind and experience. ITSI Copyright@2010
  29. 29. The building blocks of the Cybersphere Mental Cyberspace Space Physical The Space Internet ITSI Copyright@2010
  30. 30. The building blocks of the Cybersphere Mental Cyberspace Space Physical The Space Internet ITSI Copyright@2010
  31. 31. The building blocks of the Cybersphere is the virtual & physical space where all the electronic technologies Ubiquitous Cyberspace Internet, payment systems, CyberSphere telephones, computing devices, media, security systems, digital personal identities, augmented reality Ubiquitous Internet - all converge into a single seamless system. ITSI Copyright@2010
  32. 32. The CyberSphere becomes part of the Biosphere ITSI Copyright@2010
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  36. 36. Oracle of Delphi The Pythia (Greek: Πυθία) was the priestess presiding over the Oracle of Apollo at Delphi, located on the slopes of Mount Parnassus. ITSI Copyright@2010
  37. 37. The Oracle for a new millennium ITSI Copyright@2010
  38. 38. The Oracle for a new millennium What is the exchange rate right now? ITSI Copyright@2010
  39. 39. The Oracle for a new millennium What will the weather be like in Port Louis, Mauritius? ITSI Copyright@2010
  40. 40. The Oracle for a new millennium Where can I find the Telecosm handbook? ITSI Copyright@2010
  41. 41. The Oracle for a new millennium What song is playing right now? ITSI Copyright@2010
  42. 42. The Oracle for a new millennium Where is the closest resort? ITSI Copyright@2010
  43. 43. The Oracle for a new millennium Where is my car? ITSI Copyright@2010
  44. 44. The Oracle for a new millennium What is happening at my office? ITSI Copyright@2010
  45. 45. The Oracle for a new millennium Where is the closest open restaurant? ITSI Copyright@2010
  46. 46. Augmented reality is just around the corner Special at Baby City: Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month) Pamper nappies (0-3month) R99.00/40 R80.00/40 ITSI Copyright@2010
  47. 47. Augmented reality is just around the corner Special at Baby City: Special at BabysRus: Pamper nappies (0-3month) Pamper nappies (0-3month) R99.00/40 R80.00/40 ITSI Copyright@2010
  48. 48. AR for the London Underground ITSI Copyright@2010
  49. 49. Technology’s impact on time and space Internet Bandwidth Connectivity Quality of Protocol Experience Information Information Information Information Becomes Becomes Becomes Becomes Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to Agnostic to Content Time Space Form ITSI Copyright@2010
  50. 50. ITSI Copyright@2010
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  54. 54. The Future of Mobile Commerce… Everywhere On every phone … will increasingly link the Virtual World to the real word. ITSI Copyright@2010
  55. 55. Leveraging the QR and Bar code revolution ITSI Copyright@2010
  56. 56. Leveraging the QR and Bar code revolution ITSI Copyright@2010
  57. 57. Get your horse ready ITSI Copyright@2010
  58. 58. ITSI Copyright@2010
  59. 59. ITSI Copyright@2010
  60. 60. One click e-Commerce Handheld TV units have bi-directional communication capabilities, which allows for sequential e-Commerce applications. ITSI Copyright@2010
  61. 61. Wearable computer interfaces ITSI Copyright@2010
  62. 62. Augmented reality ITSI Copyright@2010
  63. 63. Telepresence - today and tomorrow ITSI Copyright@2010
  64. 64. RFID & Auto Identification Source: www.autoid.org ITSI Copyright@2010
  65. 65. Supermarkets & RFIDs ITSI Copyright@2010
  66. 66. Payment via Near Field Communication Early market: Hong Kong Acceptance of Octopus Card for mini and micro- payments throughout the city. Nokia and Sony are ready to launch NFC phones in Hong Kong in 3rd Qtr 2006 . ITSI Copyright@2010
  67. 67. The eBook competition is heating up B&N Reader $199 Amazon Sony eBook Kindle Reader $299 $199 Apple iPad $499 ITSI Copyright@2010
  68. 68. My Avatar and I ITSI Copyright@2010
  69. 69. Avatars and their owners ITSI Copyright@2010
  70. 70. ITSI Copyright@2010
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  72. 72. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2010 Wifi coverage built into public phone terminals TIMELINE Smart Barbie with GPS tracking, personality chip and full sensory input Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants ITSI Copyright@2010
  73. 73. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2011 Hospitals use virtual queuing systems TIMELINE Neural networks used for patient appointment management Multimedia patient records ITSI Copyright@2010
  74. 74. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2011 Home manager computer TIMELINE Chips in packaging control cooking Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle ITSI Copyright@2010
  75. 75. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2012 Electronic wallpaper Full voice interaction with machine TIMELINE Anti-noise technology built into homes Programmable noise cancellation earplugs ITSI Copyright@2010
  76. 76. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2013 Voice synthesis quality up to human standard TIMELINE Voice over IP spam calls become prevalent Highly integrated biosensors ITSI Copyright@2010
  77. 77. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2013 Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem TIMELINE Government introduce legislation to protect local community Intellectual Property from exploitation in the Virtual World ITSI Copyright@2010
  78. 78. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2014 Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street TIMELINE Personal banking replaced by agents Global barter sub-economy ITSI Copyright@2010
  79. 79. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2014 Shadow democracy used in community networks Most tickets electronic TIMELINE In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides ITSI Copyright@2010
  80. 80. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2015 Artificial Intelligentteachers get better results than most human teachers TIMELINE 3D TV without need for special glasses Holographic displays for continuous video 3D video conferencing ITSI Copyright@2010
  81. 81. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2015 Genetic screening widely used TIMELINE Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record ITSI Copyright@2010
  82. 82. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2015 Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation Integrated taxation in all transactions TIMELINE More people using telework centres than home working ITSI Copyright@2010
  83. 83. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2017 Office Automationsystems using functions similar tobrain functions TIMELINE Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace Machine use of human-like creativity ITSI Copyright@2010
  84. 84. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2018 Virtual companies and virtual co-operatives dominate TIMELINE Purely electronic companies exist - minimal human involvement ITSI Copyright@2010
  85. 85. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2018 VR overlays on real world TIMELINE VR escapism is a major social problem ITSI Copyright@2010
  86. 86. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2018 Online surgeries dominate first linemedical care TIMELINE Quiz shows screen for implant technologies Some implants seen as status symbols ITSI Copyright@2010
  87. 87. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2018 ID cards replaced by biometric scanning TIMELINE Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world ITSI Copyright@2010
  88. 88. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2020 Global voting on some issues Network based telepathy TIMELINE VR extensively used in retirement homes ITSI Copyright@2010
  89. 89. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2025 Creation of ―The Matrix‖ Experience recording TIMELINE Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology ITSI Copyright@2010
  90. 90. Business Opportunities in a world of abundance  Personalised TV advertisements  Shared RAN with Government / Competitors  Video glasses  ―Time share‖ Virtual Presence  Free in-company cellular calls via Piconets / Femtocells to counter SIP over WiFi  Paris Metro Pricing to counter Skype over 3G / LTE  Personal Cockpit to allow web agents to gather all relevant information on your behalf  Management of all your IP addresses via your own cockpit ITSI Copyright@2010
  91. 91. Universal Resource Locater (URL) 125.14.123.123 is actually www.cnn.com So, if your devices are called 196.14.23.45.13.126 198.34.56.78.123.235 or 198.34.56.78.235.12 What prohibits us then from giving all our devices an easy-to-remember name? Which bring us to the next question: ITSI Copyright@2010
  92. 92. What will be the most important Internet address in my life? Pieter.Geldenhuys.rsa.name phone.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name car.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name home.pieter.geldenhuys.rsa.name Registrations for rsa.name opened 1st Q of 2004 ! ITSI Copyright@2010
  93. 93. ITSI Copyright@2010
  94. 94. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2008 Smart Barbie with personality chip and full sensory input TIMELINE Artificial Intelligent houses which react to occupants Expert systems surpass human learning and logic abilities ITSI Copyright@2010
  95. 95. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2009 Home manager computer Chips in packaging control cooking TIMELINE Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle ITSI Copyright@2010
  96. 96. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2009 Windows with holographic coatings to re-direct sunlight TIMELINE Virtual windows Full voice interaction with machine ITSI Copyright@2010
  97. 97. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2010 Voice synthesis quality up to human standard TIMELINE Talking head technology used in public terminals Highly integrated biosensors ITSI Copyright@2010
  98. 98. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2010 Office Automationsystems using functions similar tobrain functions TIMELINE Satellite location devices implanted into humans become commonplace Machine use of human-like creativity ITSI Copyright@2010
  99. 99. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2010 Hospitals use virtual queuing systems TIMELINE Neural networks used for patient appointment management Multimedia patient records ITSI Copyright@2010
  100. 100. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2011 Genetic screening widely used TIMELINE Lifestyle monitoring and insurance linked to medical records Operations videoed and stored as part of medical record ITSI Copyright@2010
  101. 101. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2008 Virtual companies and virtual co- operatives dominate Purely electronic companies exist - TIMELINE minimal human involvement Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation Integrated taxation in all transactions ITSI Copyright@2010
  102. 102. Technological events that will define the epoch 2011 VR overlays on real world TIMELINE VR escapism is a major social problem Direct electronic pleasure production Artificial senses, sensors directly stimulating nerves ITSI Copyright@2010
  103. 103. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2012 Online surgeries dominate first line medical care TIMELINE Quiz shows screen for implant technologies Some implants seen as status symbols ITSI Copyright@2010
  104. 104. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2015 Artificial Intelligentteachers get better results than most human teachers TIMELINE 3D TV without need for special glasses Holographic displays for continuous video 3D video conferencing ITSI Copyright@2010
  105. 105. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2016 Dual geo/cyber-nationality recognised internationally TIMELINE Use of virtual environments for proxy space exploration Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger) Digital image overlays enhance relationships ITSI Copyright@2010
  106. 106. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2017 Desktop computer as fast as human brain TIMELINE 1 Petabit memory chip AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain ITSI Copyright@2010
  107. 107. Will this be life in the Cybersphere? 2017 Parallel computer with 1000 million processors TIMELINE ID cards replaced by biometric scanning Cyberspace covers 75% of developed world ITSI Copyright@2010
  108. 108. Get more projections about the future at ITSI Copyright@2010
  109. 109. ITSI Copyright@2010
  110. 110. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2005 Use of talking head technology for conferencing TIMELINE Net bring and buy exchanges Shopping lists automatically compiled by supermarkets ITSI Copyright@2010
  111. 111. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2005 Personal shopping tablets People have cyberspace wardrobe TIMELINE Frequent use of multiple Net identities causes personality disorders South Korean company selling Avatar clothing made more than $ 10 million profit in 2003 !!! ITSI Copyright@2010
  112. 112. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2005 First cellular phone virus becomes prevalent TIMELINE RFIDs become commonplace Global electronic currency in use Conferencing technology for remote socialising in public places ITSI Copyright@2010
  113. 113. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2006 1000 000 000 Internet users People reduce tax liability by being partially TIMELINE paid in information products Replacement of people leads to anti- technology subculture ITSI Copyright@2010
  114. 114. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2008 Digital bathroom mirror Magazine tablets TIMELINE Personalised response from household gadgets Electronic newspapers ITSI Copyright@2010
  115. 115. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2009 Automated real life highlight channels on digital TV TIMELINE VR overlays on real world Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash ITSI Copyright@2010
  116. 116. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2010 Electronic wallpaper Mood sensitive light bulbs TIMELINE Anti-noise technology built into homes Programmable noise cancellation earplugs ITSI Copyright@2010
  117. 117. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2011 Video surveillance of neighbours becomes social problem Government introduce legislation to protect TIMELINE local community IP Social software, organising functions etc Holodeck meeting room ITSI Copyright@2010
  118. 118. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2012 Electronic cash from internet migrates onto high street TIMELINE Personal banking replaced by agents Global barter sub-economy ITSI Copyright@2010
  119. 119. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2013 Shadow democracy used in community networks Most tickets electronic TIMELINE In-store positioning systems enable personalised guides ITSI Copyright@2010
  120. 120. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2015 Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation Integrated taxation in all transactions TIMELINE More people using telework centres than home working ITSI Copyright@2010
  121. 121. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2017 Most towns echoed in cyberspace Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger) TIMELINE Major pension crises ITSI Copyright@2010
  122. 122. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2025 Global voting on some issues Network based telepathy TIMELINE VR extensively used in retirement homes ITSI Copyright@2010
  123. 123. Will this be the future of the CyberSphere? 2035 Creation of ―The Matrix‖ Experience recording TIMELINE Real toy soldiers using nanotechnology ITSI Copyright@2010
  124. 124. How do you create value in this environment? ITSI Copyright@2010
  125. 125. Sections of the presentation available on www.itsi.org.za Training -> Strategy Partners Username: Strategy Password: Partners ITSI Copyright@2010

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