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Fuller presentation nvar economic summit
 

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    Fuller presentation nvar economic summit Fuller presentation nvar economic summit Presentation Transcript

    • NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit
      The Outlook for the
      Washington Area Economy
      Stephen S. Fuller, PhD
      Director, Center for Regional Analysis
      School of Public Policy
      George Mason University
      September 16, 2010
    • Washington MSA Leading Economic Index
      Month-Over-Year Percent Change
    • 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 09 – July 10
      (000s)
      Washington + 41,800
      Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
      000s
      Annual Data Annual Month over Year
      2008 2009 2010
      Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
      000s
      Annual Data Annual Month over Year
      2008 2009 2010
      Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Washington MSA
      Total - 79,300
      (000s)
      Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Washington MSA
      Total 41,200
      (000s)
      Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Northern Virginia
      Total 22,700
      (000s)
      Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Unemployment Rate
      %
      9.7
      6.3
      5.2
      U.S.
      Washington
      Northern Virginia
      Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
    • 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateJuly 2010
      %
      US
      9.7
      6.3
      Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
    • Housing Market Trends
    • Existing Home Sales
      Washington MSA
      Through August 2010
      12-Month Moving Average
      Northern Virginia
    • Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA
      %
      Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
      Aug =
      - 0.3%
      Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Total Active Listings Per SaleAugust Each Year
      PG
      PW
      LDN
      DC
      MONT
      FFX
      ARL
      Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types
      %
      Annual Change Annual Change by Month
      2007 2008 2009 2010
      Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types
      %
      Annual Change Annual Change by Month
      2007 2008 2009 2010
      Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate
      Washington Metro, All Housing Types
      %
      2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
      Source: Hanley Wood
    • Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Metro Area
    • Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Northern Virginia
    • Economic Forecast
    • Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)
      %
      NV
      MSA
      SM
      DC
      Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
      Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000
      Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
    • GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
      %
      Washington
      U.S.
      Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
    • Policy-cra.gmu.edu