Fuller presentation nvar economic summit

NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit
The Outlook for the
Washington Area Economy
Stephen S. Fuller, PhD
Director, Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public Policy
George Mason University
September 16, 2010

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index
Month-Over-Year Percent Change

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 09 – July 10
(000s)
Washington + 41,800
Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010

Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009 2010

Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Washington MSA
Total - 79,300
(000s)

Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Washington MSA
Total 41,200
(000s)

Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Northern Virginia
Total 22,700
(000s)

Unemployment Rate
%
9.7
6.3
5.2
U.S.
Washington
Northern Virginia
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateJuly 2010
%
US
9.7
6.3
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

Housing Market Trends

Existing Home Sales
Washington MSA
Through August 2010
12-Month Moving Average
Northern Virginia

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA
%
Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
Aug =
- 0.3%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Active Listings Per SaleAugust Each Year
PG
PW
LDN
DC
MONT
FFX
ARL

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009 2010

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009 2010

New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate
Washington Metro, All Housing Types
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Hanley Wood

Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Metro Area

Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Northern Virginia

Economic Forecast

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)
%
NV
MSA
SM
DC
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
%
Washington
U.S.
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Policy-cra.gmu.edu

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Fuller presentation nvar economic summit

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