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Fuller presentation nvar economic summit Fuller presentation nvar economic summit Presentation Transcript

  • NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit
    The Outlook for the
    Washington Area Economy
    Stephen S. Fuller, PhD
    Director, Center for Regional Analysis
    School of Public Policy
    George Mason University
    September 16, 2010
  • Washington MSA Leading Economic Index
    Month-Over-Year Percent Change
  • 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change July 09 – July 10
    (000s)
    Washington + 41,800
    Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
    000s
    Annual Data Annual Month over Year
    2008 2009 2010
    Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia
    000s
    Annual Data Annual Month over Year
    2008 2009 2010
    Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Washington MSA
    Total - 79,300
    (000s)
    Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Washington MSA
    Total 41,200
    (000s)
    Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by SectorJuly 2009 – July 2010Northern Virginia
    Total 22,700
    (000s)
    Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Unemployment Rate
    %
    9.7
    6.3
    5.2
    U.S.
    Washington
    Northern Virginia
    Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
  • 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateJuly 2010
    %
    US
    9.7
    6.3
    Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
  • Housing Market Trends
  • Existing Home Sales
    Washington MSA
    Through August 2010
    12-Month Moving Average
    Northern Virginia
  • Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA
    %
    Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
    Aug =
    - 0.3%
    Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Total Active Listings Per SaleAugust Each Year
    PG
    PW
    LDN
    DC
    MONT
    FFX
    ARL
    Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types
    %
    Annual Change Annual Change by Month
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types
    %
    Annual Change Annual Change by Month
    2007 2008 2009 2010
    Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate
    Washington Metro, All Housing Types
    %
    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
    Source: Hanley Wood
  • Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Metro Area
  • Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011Northern Virginia
  • Economic Forecast
  • Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change)
    %
    NV
    MSA
    SM
    DC
    Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
    Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000
    Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
  • GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015
    %
    Washington
    U.S.
    Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Policy-cra.gmu.edu