20090906 On Future Internet, Cloud Computing, and Semantics – You name it

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Presentation about various aspects of the Future Internet, Cloud Computing, business models, and semantics, for the ACTIVE Summer School, Bled (Slovenia), 6 September 2009. …

Presentation about various aspects of the Future Internet, Cloud Computing, business models, and semantics, for the ACTIVE Summer School, Bled (Slovenia), 6 September 2009.
Also available as video on http://videolectures.net/active09_zwegers_ficc/

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  • 1. On Future Internet, Cloud Computing, and Semantics – You name it Arian Zwegers European Commission Information Society and Media Directorate General Software & Service Architectures and Infrastructures Unit
  • 2. Overview • Future Internet – Today’s Internet – Problems and opportunities – Different perspectives – What’s next? • Internet of Services – Vision – Cloud Computing – What is it? – Cloud Computing – Market values – Business models – Business strategies – Some issues for debate – What’s next? • Semantics – Some examples – European research in semantics – What’s next? • Work Programme 2009-10
  • 3. Future Internet Today’s Internet Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)
  • 4. Future Internet Today’s Internet Cable Mobile VPN Public Internet Satellite Broadcast PSTN Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)
  • 5. Future Internet Today’s Internet Communication Resources Instant messaging IaaS Free email Cable Mobile VPN PaaS Search Public Internet SaaS engines Business Services Satellite Broadcast Information PSTN Virtual Worlds Sharing files Social & Professional Other content-related networks Content services Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)
  • 6. Future Internet Today’s Internet Communication Resources Instant messaging IaaS Free email Cable Mobile VPN PaaS Search Public Internet SaaS engines Business Services Satellite Broadcast Information PSTN Virtual Worlds Sharing files Social & Professional Other content-related networks Content services Adapted from Zwegers (2008) and Li (2009)
  • 7. Future Internet World Internet Penetration Rates by Geographic Regions 251 / 340 21 / 35 402 / 804 176 / 587 48 / 203 704 / 3,808 66 / 991
  • 8. Future Internet World Internet Penetration Rates by Geographic Regions 251 / 340 21 / 35 402 / 804 • 480,000,000: newspapers (daily) 176 / 587 • 1,500,000,000: TV sets in use • 1,700,000,000:48 / 203 cards credit • 2,250,000,000: tooth brushes in use 704 / 3,808 • 4,000,000,000: mobile phone subscriptions 66 / 991 “India has more honours kids than America has kids” (sometimes size matters) Source: “Did you know 3.0”, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8 Source: http://www.slideshare.net/hirsch30/social-mobile-convergence-in-gaming
  • 9. Future Internet Current/emerging problems and opportunities • Current Internet was never designed to be a critical part of an economy’s infrastructure • Net-delivered services are reshaping the world (search, media, games, social networking, etc.) • Tripling of the number of people connected (1.5 3B) • Addition of billions—perhaps even hundreds of billions—of devices (sensors, tags, micro controllers) • User generated content leads to a massive increase of creative flow of content and processes • Balance the perceived need for control with the creativity that spawns innovation—and profit? • Towards tethered appliances or generative technology? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hIQjrMHTv4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAsb4gtEpaw http://iiea.com/zittrain/video.wmv http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDgxGN6cqTA
  • 10. Future Internet What is it?
  • 11. Future Internet Different perspectives and their danger Internet of Services, Service Web 3D Internet Trust Security Networks of the Future http://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/EXPORT/DL/38496.pdf Internet of Things http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/publications/internetofthings/ Second Life
  • 12. Future Internet Different perspectives and their danger Internet of Services, Service Web 3D Internet Trust Conway’s Law: “organisations which design systems are constrained to produce systems which are copies of the [communication] structures of these organisations” (1968) Security Networks of the Future http://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/EXPORT/DL/38496.pdf Internet of Things http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/publications/internetofthings/ Second Life
  • 13. Future Internet What’s next? Future Internet Communication • Strengthening R&D investments – Comprehensive approach to R&D – Minimum 200 M€/year for 2011-2013 – Future Internet Assembly • Leveraging Member States initiatives • Building a public-private partnership – Use of FP7 instruments for 2011-2013 – Specific WP and modalities – Additional 300 M€ for 2011-2013 – Approach for FP8 by end 2011 To be published in September 2009 See http://ec.europa.eu/foi
  • 14. Future Internet What’s next? Future Internet public-private partnership (PPP) • Objectives – Advancing European industrial know-how in Future Internet technologies and systems – Supporting emergence of Future Internet-enhanced applications of public relevance • Recently initiated and proposed by industry – Industry leadership expected! – Industry leadership expected!! – Industry leadership expected!!! • Role of European Technology Platforms? • EC report on instruments • EC report on contents See http://ec.europa.eu/foi, http://www.future-internet.eu
  • 15. Internet of Services Vision A multitude of connected IT services, which are offered, bought, sold, used, repurposed, and composed by a worldwide network of service providers, consumers, aggregators, and brokers - resulting in - a new way of offering, using, and organising IT supported functionality Number of Web services found by SEEKDA crawler Adapted from SAP Research, 2008, and SEEKDA, 2009 during the past 26 months (June 2009)
  • 16. Internet of Services Cloud Computing – Everything old is new again? Adapted from http://www.slideshare.net/midtownninja/cloud-computing-and-startups, http://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/09/business/internet-critic-who-not-shy- about-ruffling-big-names-high-technology.html
  • 17. Internet of Services Cloud Computing – Everything is renamed? "The interesting thing about cloud computing is that we've redefined cloud computing to include everything that we already do. I can't think of anything that isn't cloud computing with all of these announcements. The computer industry is the only industry that is more fashion-driven than women's fashion. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I have no idea what anyone is talking about. What is it? It's complete gibberish. It's insane. When is this idiocy going to stop?” Larry Ellison, 26 September 2008
  • 18. Internet of Services Cloud Computing – What is it? Source: http://www.slideshare.net/midtownninja/cloud-computing-and-startups
  • 19. Internet of Services Cloud Computing – What is it? Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and rapidly provisioned services) that can be and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction (Source: NIST Cloud Computing Project) http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/cloud-computing/cloud-def-v14.doc
  • 20. Internet of Services Cloud Computing – What is different? Source: Gartner, 2008
  • 21. Internet of Services Cloud Computing – Every cloud has a silver lining Cloud Computing ‐ EU27 Worldwide by 2012 8 000 SaaS Total 7 000 • SaaS: $21bn 6 000 – 20% CAGR 5 000 PaaS Total • PaaS: $9bn M€ 4 000 – 160% CAGR 3 000 2 000 • IaaS: $4bn IaaS Total 1 000 – 60% CAGR 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Merrill Lynch: Cloud computing market opportunity by 2011 = $95bn in business and productivity apps + $65bn in online advertising = $160bn Sources: 451 Group, AMR, Gartner, IDC, William Blair & Co., Merrill Lynch, PAC, http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/study-sw-2009_en.html
  • 22. Internet of Services Business Models: factors to consider (1/2) • Generative technology vs Tethered Appliances – Generative technology • Configurable, processable • Development mediated through market model – Tethered appliances • Need for ‘men in white coats’ • Development mediated through company • Ecosystems – Variety of applications based on platform, and/or – Business partnerships, and/or – Relationships with suppliers and consumers Adapted from Li, 2009
  • 23. Internet of Services Business Models: factors to consider (2/2) • Services – From shrink-wrapped, packaged products to Software as a Service – Focus from basic network services to “more valuable” software services • Universality & Utility – Universal service: utility, affordability, accessibility, availability, quality – Utility: right to the service in question – Scarcity and market power Adapted from Li, 2009
  • 24. Internet of Services Business Strategies (1/2) • Protection of intellectual property – Patents and trade secrets – Right to exclude others vs right to exclusivity • Bundling of technologies – “A superior offering” – Distribution advantages and network effects Adapted from Li, 2009
  • 25. Internet of Services Business Strategies (2/2) • Standards – Openness, interoperability and market as arbiter – Defensive strategies and publishing APIs • Open source – Collective intelligence, added value, management of development process • Long tail – Market niches, smaller customers, customisation, choice Adapted from Li, 2009
  • 26. Internet of Services Some issues for debate http://dilbert.com/2009-08-30/
  • 27. Internet of Services Some issues for debate: SaaS, a silver bullet? Drivers • Maintenance fees are the gravy train of enterprise software • Costs savings (acquisition and maintenance) • Predictability of software management costs • Complexity reduction • Increasing offerings available in the market, increasing customer choice • Increasing provider accountability Adapted from Financial Times, 27 August 2008 “The end of a software gravy train”
  • 28. Internet of Services Some issues for debate: SaaS, a silver bullet? Drivers Inhibitors • Maintenance fees are the • “Tethered appliances” gravy train of enterprise argument (Zittrain) software • From privacy policies to • Costs savings (acquisition portability policies and maintenance) • Switching costs • Predictability of software • Reliability software-on- management costs demand products/services • Complexity reduction • Perceived lack of • Increasing offerings functionality, security, available in the market, customisation, and increasing customer integration capabilities choice • Putting critical information • Increasing provider off-premise? accountability • Service provider viability Adapted from Financial Times, 27 August 2008 “The end of a software gravy train”
  • 29. Internet of Services Some issues for debate: Billions of services? Billions of services Service Parks • Everybody is a potential • Trusted services from service provider recognised brands • Everybody potentially uses • Sets of services with rules services from everybody for combining and • Requires work on service modifying them discovery, composition, • Homogeneous semantics semantics for • Guaranteed SLAs heterogeneous services • Like the old vision, but in a park only Source: Charles Petrie, Christoph Bussler “The Myth of Open Web Services – The Rise of the Service Parks” IEEE Internet Computing, May/June 2008, pp 93-95 Number of Web services found by SEEKDA crawler during the past 26 months Source: SEEKDA, 2009
  • 30. Internet of Services Some issues for debate: independent thinking?
  • 31. Internet of Services What’s next? FP&SP Proposed text Orientations (ICT Dirs) ISTAG Reports Consul- Draft WP tation (ICT Dirs) Reports ETP SRAs First draft to ICTC for Consolidation discussion workshop IPPA report Full text report for opinion Road- Commission mapping Reports Decision WP Workshop published reports Call(s) published Online consultation 12/2009 04/2010 05/2010 10/2010 11/2010 11/2010 11/2010 Note: dates are tentative
  • 32. Internet of Services What’s next? Preparing for WP2011-13 • Consultations – Long-term research challenges – Convergence – Cloud computing – Software evolution and maintenance – Other consultations? • Studies • Get involved!!
  • 33. Semantics What Semantics? http://searchpoint.ijs.si
  • 34. Semantics SOA4All SOA As the emerging dominant paradigm for application development which abstracts Web principles from software to the notion of a service Context To scale SOA to a Adapting to meet local world wide web environment constraints, communications organizational policies infrastructure and personal preferences Web 2.0 Semantic Web As a means to structure human-machine To automate service cooperation in an efficient discovery, mediation & & cost-effective manner composition http://www.soa4all.eu
  • 35. Semantics SOA4All overall architecture http://www.soa4all.eu
  • 36. Semantics Marrying Ontology and Software Technology http://www.most-project.eu/
  • 37. Semantics Service Web 3.0 • Future Internet roadmap • Future Internet video http://www.serviceweb30.eu/
  • 38. Semantics EU semantics research: vision without execution? • Status based on ESTC 2008 • Vision – Various theories, concepts, languages, frameworks, etc – Various prototype implementations – Various standardisation activities • Execution – How about technology providers? – How about take-up? – Where is the money? • Research: a means to an end!?
  • 39. Semantics EU semantics research: vision without execution? “ACTIVE is not just about research, it’s also about realising the value from that research. That means spreading the word about what we are doing, not “Knowing is not enough; just within the research community we must apply. but also to the innovators who will Willing is not enough; adopt ACTIVE technology in their we must do.” enterprises. At the same time, ACTIVE’s commercial partners will be exploiting the project’s innovation portfolio, while ACTIVE’s research partners will be creating software components for use by themselves and others in future research and development” http://www.active-project.eu/publications.html
  • 40. Semantics What’s next? Semantics in FP7-ICT • ICT research addresses the development of Semantic Technologies in diverse Strategic Objectives • Core objective for research or in function of?
  • 41. So? • Where is Europe? • “Web 3.0 = Google Inc?” • Issues with Internet of Services and Cloud Computing • What can Europe do? Framework Programmes (National programmes) (Software strategy) (Cloud Computing workshops) (Other?) • Are we going to act (or not)?
  • 42. WP2009-10 7th Framework Programme (2007-2013) Biotechnology 2. Food, Agriculture Production Techn. 4. Nano, Materials, COOPERATION Research 8. Socio-economic 6. Environment 7. Transport 10. Security 5. Energy 1. Health 9. Space 3. ICT € 32 B € 7.5 B IDEAS European Research Council PEOPLE Marie Curie Actions € 4.7 B Research Research for Regions of Research Science in International CAPACITIES Infrastruc- the benefit of Know- Potential Society Co-operation tures SMEs ledge € 4.2 B http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/
  • 43. WP2009-10 ICT WP2009-2010, ~2 B€ total i2010 Socio-economic goals Flagships Digital Towards ICT for ICT for Libraries sustainable Mobility, Independent and and Environmental Living, ETPs Content personalised Sustainability Inclusion healthcare and Energy and Efficiency Governance Network and Technology roadblocks Service Future and Emerging Infrastructures Technologies Cognitive Systems, Interaction, Robotics Components, Systems, Engineering ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/ict-wp-2009-10_en.pdf
  • 44. WP2009-10 Challenge 1 Call 4 Call 5 80 MEuro 37 MEuro The Future Internet 1.3 Internet of Things 1.5 Networked Media and Enterprise and 3D Internet environments Call 5 1.4 Trustworthy ICT Call 5 110 MEuro 90 MEuro 1.2 Internet of Services, Software and Virtualisation Call 4 110 MEuro 1.1 Network of the Future Call 5 Call 5 1.6 Future Internet experimental facility 80 MEuro 50 MEuro and experimentally-driven research
  • 45. WP2009-10 Internet of Services, Software and Virtualisation ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/fp7/ict/docs/ict-wp-2009-10_en.pdf
  • 46. WP2009-10 Objective 1.2, Problems and opportunities (1/2) • Issues with service architectures and platforms – Existing web-based service front-ends are based on monolithic, inflexible, non-context-aware, non- customizable and unfriendly UIs – How to deal with many, many diverse services? – How to manage many, diverse underlying hardware and software resources? Service Architectures and Platforms for the Future Internet (CP) – Service front ends – Open, scalable, dependable service platforms, architectures, and specific platform components – Virtualised infrastructures Text in black: issues, challenges, opportunities Text in blue: Work Programme target outcomes Remember: The Work Programme text is the official reference for the call
  • 47. WP2009-10 Objective 1.2, Problems and opportunities (2/2) • Issues with very large, dynamic, open service networks – From design time to run-time – Quality of open systems without fixed system boundaries – Opportunities with open source software and service engineering? Highly Innovative Service / Software Engineering (CP) – Service / Software engineering methods and tools – Verification and validation methods, tools and techniques – Methods, tools and approaches specifically supporting the development, deployment and evolution of open source software • Lack of coordination of current and future research efforts Coordination and support actions (CSA) Obj 1.2 Instruments: IP, STREP, CSA Call 5 Budget CP: 107 M€ 110 M€ Budget CSA: 3 M€ Remember: The Work Programme text is the official reference for the call
  • 48. WP2009-10 Objective 1.2, Expected Impact • Service development, management and interoperability in a converged environment Contribution to Future Internet • Improving scalability, predictability, responsiveness and throughput Technological advances in software/service engineering • Infrastructure operators with innovative service offerings on scalable infrastructure More competitive environment • Standardised open (source) platforms and interfaces Lowered barriers for service providers • Innovative service front ends and higher user empowerment Massive uptake of high-added value services • Platforms enabling "third party generated services" More advanced/dynamic online communities • Flexible and resilient platforms for software/service engineering, design, development, management and interoperability Strengthened European industry for software, software services, and Web services • Tailored technologies Meeting key societal and economical needs Text in black: enablers, outcomes Text in blue: Work Programme expected impact Remember: The Work Programme text is the official reference for the call
  • 49. WP2009-10 Current FP7 projects under Objective 1.2 Service front-ends FAST, m:Ciudad, OPEN, Persist, ServFace Service/Software Engineering (complexity, dependability) Service Architectures DEPLOY, ALIVE, SLA@SOI, SOA4ALL, OMP, Romulus, SHAPE COMPAS, DIVA, MANCOOSI, MOST, Protest, Q-ImPrESS Virtualised Infrastructures IRMOS, RESERVOIR, ADMIRE, SmartLM, STREAM Reference service architecture NEXOF-RA Network of Excellence: S-Cube Support actions NESSI 2010, Service Web 3.0, Flossinclude • 181 M€ invested, 120 M€ EC contribution • Timeframe 2008-2011 http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/projects_en.html
  • 50. And now what? WE have a problem! What are YOU going to do about it?
  • 51. Conclusions • Future Internet is happening • Internet of Services is a major element of Future Internet • Business models: ‘factors’ and strategies to consider • Issues with Internet of Services • Role of semantics • Interdisciplinary research is needed for the Future Internet • Research is a means to an end • Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • 52. Questions?
  • 53. For more information FP7 FP7 http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ Software & Service Architectures and Infrastructures Software & Service Architectures and Infrastructures http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/ http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/ Future Internet Future Internet http://ec.europa.eu/foi http://ec.europa.eu/foi http://www.future-internet.eu/ http://www.future-internet.eu/ This presentation This presentation http://www.slideshare.net/azwegers http://www.slideshare.net/azwegers E-mail E-mail Arian.Zwegers@ec.europa.eu Arian.Zwegers@ec.europa.eu