The problem with Web2.0 Aziz H. Poonawalla http://metablog.us

How do we use the web? We consume content We generate content We engage in conversations Prior to web2.0, all centralized via The Blog Reading Blogging Commenting Now, these functions are specialized and decentralized

We consume content

We generate content

We engage in conversations

Prior to web2.0, all centralized via The Blog

Reading

Blogging

Commenting

Now, these functions are specialized and decentralized

Generating/Consuming Content Posts Blog Web forums Tumblog Tweets Photos and Video Flickr Picasa Web YouTube Audio Last.fm Podcasts Email Direct Lists Links Del.icio.us Google reader Shared Items Facebook Shared Items Twitter Status Twitter Facebook Gtalk

Posts

Blog

Web forums

Tumblog

Tweets

Photos and Video

Flickr

Picasa Web

YouTube

Audio

Last.fm

Podcasts

Email

Direct

Lists

Links

Del.icio.us

Google reader Shared Items

Facebook Shared Items

Twitter

Status

Twitter

Facebook

Gtalk

Conversations Friends (1-1) Twitter Facebook Friendfeed Email Groups (1-many) Facebook (rooms) Friendfeed Blog comments Web forums Private email lists Public (many-many) Blog comments Friendfeed Web forums Public email lists

Friends (1-1)

Twitter

Facebook

Friendfeed

Email

Groups (1-many)

Facebook (rooms)

Friendfeed

Blog comments

Web forums

Private email lists

Public (many-many)

Blog comments

Friendfeed

Web forums

Public email lists

Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) Signal: stuff you want Noise: stuff you don’t SNR scales inversely with: Number of content sources Number of friends (social web) Number of contacts (email) To improve SNR, need to increase signal and/or decrease noise Problem : noise scales with signal!

Signal: stuff you want

Noise: stuff you don’t

SNR scales inversely with:

Number of content sources

Number of friends (social web)

Number of contacts (email)

To improve SNR, need to increase signal and/or decrease noise

Problem : noise scales with signal!

Social Noise Conversations blur the line between creating and consuming content Multiple channels result in redundant content Same blog post by a given author might reach you via twitter, delicious, FF, etc. Same status updates appear on twitter, identi.ca, plurk, facebook Fragmented conversations across blog comments, FF

Conversations blur the line between creating and consuming content

Multiple channels result in redundant content

Same blog post by a given author might reach you via twitter, delicious, FF, etc.

Same status updates appear on twitter, identi.ca, plurk, facebook

Fragmented conversations across blog comments, FF

Filtering sucks Many services claim to reduce noise, but are actually reducing signal AideRSS PostRank (algorithmic) Digg (communal) Techmeme (algorithmic) Echo chamber effects Filters invariably make assumptions about what you consider signal By relationships By concensus By popularity

Many services claim to reduce noise, but are actually reducing signal

AideRSS PostRank (algorithmic)

Digg (communal)

Techmeme (algorithmic)

Echo chamber effects

Filters invariably make assumptions about what you consider signal

By relationships

By concensus

By popularity

Solution 1: Segregate services Define specific roles for each social service Inputs: mediums where you exclusively create content Outputs: mediums where you exclusively promote content Venues: mediums where you exclusively discuss content “ Simplify, Simplify” – Henry David Thoreau

Define specific roles for each social service

Inputs: mediums where you exclusively create content

Outputs: mediums where you exclusively promote content

Venues: mediums where you exclusively discuss content

“ Simplify, Simplify” – Henry David Thoreau

Solution 2: reduce signal Seems counterintuitive at first Avoid the A-listers, just pick one or two (Scoble, Winer, etc) Declare email independence [1] Resist temptation New web services appear weekly Easy to get spread too thin Most are novel, few are useful Avoid redundancy Cull the herd Use your Google Reader statistics to see which feeds you barely read Avoid reading primary sources (ie BBC), rely on linkers instead (i.e. NewsJunk) [1] http://www.metablog.us/social/declaration-of-email-independence/

Seems counterintuitive at first

Avoid the A-listers, just pick one or two (Scoble, Winer, etc)

Declare email independence [1]

Resist temptation

New web services appear weekly

Easy to get spread too thin

Most are novel, few are useful

Avoid redundancy

Cull the herd

Use your Google Reader statistics to see which feeds you barely read

Avoid reading primary sources (ie BBC), rely on linkers instead (i.e. NewsJunk)

[1] http://www.metablog.us/social/declaration-of-email-independence/

Solution 3: be elitist Following/friending too many people on Twitter, Facebook etc results in a firehose of updates Impossible to see everything Most people follow many but interact with few Some improvement is possible Twitter needs a “mark user as read” [1] Facebook needs more fine-grained control over your news feed filtering Fundamental limit to number of human interactions: Dunbar’s Number [2] [1] http://www.metablog.us/blogging/twitter-needs-mark-user-as-read/ [2] http://www.haibane.info/2007/11/20/social-linkages-online/

Following/friending too many people on Twitter, Facebook etc results in a firehose of updates

Impossible to see everything

Most people follow many but interact with few

Some improvement is possible

Twitter needs a “mark user as read” [1]

Facebook needs more fine-grained control over your news feed filtering

Fundamental limit to number of human interactions: Dunbar’s Number [2]

[1] http://www.metablog.us/blogging/twitter-needs-mark-user-as-read/

[2] http://www.haibane.info/2007/11/20/social-linkages-online/

Solution 4: metadata Semantic Web Advantages: structured data Disadvantages: data must be structured (by something or someone) Folksonomy Folksonomy is not Taxonomy! [1] Scalable, distributed, organic Genuine wisdom of crowds (diversity) rather than groupthink [2] Represents actual human query terms Even the disadvantage (meta-noise [3]) is really an advantage Overtagging creates multiple entry points Actually increases likelihood a user will find the content [1] http://www.metablog.us/content/taxonomy-versus-folksonomy/ [2] http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/sometimes_crowds_arent_that_wise.php [3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_noise

Semantic Web

Advantages: structured data

Disadvantages: data must be structured (by something or someone)

Folksonomy

Folksonomy is not Taxonomy! [1]

Scalable, distributed, organic

Genuine wisdom of crowds (diversity) rather than groupthink [2]

Represents actual human query terms

Even the disadvantage (meta-noise [3]) is really an advantage

Overtagging creates multiple entry points

Actually increases likelihood a user will find the content

[1] http://www.metablog.us/content/taxonomy-versus-folksonomy/

[2] http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/sometimes_crowds_arent_that_wise.php

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta_noise

Inflection point Web 2.0 represents an evolutionary decision point How do we handle super-connectivity? How do we handle information overload? Present growth in social services is unsustainable Human attention is a finite resource Risk fragmenting into online silos Algorithms cannot save us

Web 2.0 represents an evolutionary decision point

How do we handle super-connectivity?

How do we handle information overload?

Present growth in social services is unsustainable

Human attention is a finite resource

Risk fragmenting into online silos

Algorithms cannot save us

Folksonomy is the Future WP-Folksonomy plugin Allows readers to tag posts Access level controlled by site admin Demos: www.talkislam.info , www.haibane.info WP-Tagdex (does not exist… yet [1]) Represent tags as an index rather than a cloud Literally, human-powered index of the entire web Combination could render algorithmic search obsolete! [1] http://www.metablog.us/content/beyond-the-tag-cloud-the-tagdex/

WP-Folksonomy plugin

Allows readers to tag posts

Access level controlled by site admin

Demos: www.talkislam.info , www.haibane.info

WP-Tagdex

(does not exist… yet [1])

Represent tags as an index rather than a cloud

Literally, human-powered index of the entire web

Combination could render algorithmic search obsolete!

[1] http://www.metablog.us/content/beyond-the-tag-cloud-the-tagdex/

Web 3.0? OpenFriend API: allow friend/follower relationships to exist independently Social media sites would reference the API to “import” your existing friend relationships Distributed, open architecture akin to OpenID (anyone can run an OpenFriend server) Blur the line between social media and MMORPGs 3D environment is just a GUI for a giant social network Social networks are already “second life”, with business and pleasure transactions Search engines supplanted by RSS streams created in real-time from tag queries Live, media-rich data Relevance of results to search intent is inherently superior Return of the “phone book” model of information retrieval

OpenFriend API: allow friend/follower relationships to exist independently

Social media sites would reference the API to “import” your existing friend relationships

Distributed, open architecture akin to OpenID (anyone can run an OpenFriend server)

Blur the line between social media and MMORPGs

3D environment is just a GUI for a giant social network

Social networks are already “second life”, with business and pleasure transactions

Search engines supplanted by RSS streams created in real-time from tag queries

Live, media-rich data

Relevance of results to search intent is inherently superior

Return of the “phone book” model of information retrieval

Web 4.0? Ubiquitous connectivity WiMax, 4G devices Device convergence: GPS/cell/PDA/ All online activity geotagged by default Location information becomes as important as URL “ Local” connections will dominate our attention Online and offline distinction becomes less meaningful Online “layer” over reality? Fictional inspiration: Serial Experiments Lain, Dennou Coil

Ubiquitous connectivity

WiMax, 4G devices

Device convergence: GPS/cell/PDA/

All online activity geotagged by default

Location information becomes as important as URL

“ Local” connections will dominate our attention

Online and offline distinction becomes less meaningful

Online “layer” over reality?

Fictional inspiration: Serial Experiments Lain, Dennou Coil

Future What web? (I am a singularity skeptic [1]) 5 billion people worldwide still have no web access broadband in the US lags far behind Asia (here: 5 MBps, there: 100 Mbps) Conclusion: no matter how the web evolves, impact still limited to tiny fraction of humankind [1] http://www.haibane.info/2008/03/02/singularity-skeptic/

What web?

(I am a singularity skeptic [1])

5 billion people worldwide still have no web access

broadband in the US lags far behind Asia (here: 5 MBps, there: 100 Mbps)

Conclusion: no matter how the web evolves, impact still limited to tiny fraction of humankind

[1] http://www.haibane.info/2008/03/02/singularity-skeptic/