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Design for real impact - Kevin Starr
 

Design for real impact - Kevin Starr

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Kevin Starr of Mulago Foundation

Kevin Starr of Mulago Foundation
Forces for Good talk June 2010

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  • It starts with this question We don’t invest in organizations that don’t measure impact; they’re flying blind and we would be too. It’s crucial that I be able to figure out impact; it’s even more important for you. All I do is spend someone else’s money; you are the kind of people who could do anything is this is how you choose to spend your lives. You deserve to know.
  • In the Philippines, where the loans were targeted specifically at entrepreneurs, access to credit did not increase investment in business activities and, in fact, appeared to shrink the size and scope of businesses. However, profits increased for male entrepreneurs.   In India, areas with access to credit saw 32% more new businesses than those without, and the new businesses were more likely to belong to women. Business owners reported higher profits, and many households increased their spending on durable goods.  The positive impacts on profits and new business creation suggests that microcredit does deliver on some of its entrepreneurial promises. Hopes of a broader transformative effect, however, are not supported by the evidence we have thus far. Health, education, women's status, and even overall consumption appear unaffected by the availability of microcredit during the 1.5 years covered by the studies. In brief, microcredit seems to have delivered the immediate benefits one might expect-credit enables recipients to purchase expensive investment goods essential to beginning or improving a business-but not much beyond. Recent studies in India and the Philippines revealed that microfinance does affect some people differently than others.  The findings, however, run counter to traditional assumptions about who is impacted in what way by access to credit. Neither study found significant impacts on women's empowerment, although in India new businesses created in areas with access to credit were more likely to be owned by women.  In the Philippines, research revealed that men who were extended access to microcredit had higher business profits than those without access, but found that access to credit made no difference to women.  Men with access to credit also had more family members enrolled in school, which suggests they spent more on education.  A study in Peru found that the impact of microcredit on businesses was improved by the addition of business training. 
  • Don’t reach back in time: expensive and unreliable Give yourself the right ingredients to show a real change Mostly careful logic and good sense Extraordinarily useful people and they’re usually really nice
  • It’s all about the counterfactual: trying to figure out what would have happened without you You know what happened with you; now you need to know what happens without you Real impact is the difference between the two
  • Cambodia: complex intervention to change health behavior in the home Homogenous population; big river without much back and forth Have to be sure that nothing all that different happened on either side.
  • The gold standard Not always needed, not always best But great when there are too many variables
  • There are no new ideas Distribution includes parts and service Mosquito nets – we have them, we know people want them and will use them, but we can’t seem to get them in their hands. Behavior - using it right - has to happen and it has to last Early prototyping, field and market trials, lots of iteration
  • Distribution includes parts and service behavior: big problem = friction; doesn’t spin freely. kids play for a while, then only when white people return: play is capricious by its nature-that’s why they don’t call it work marketing: rural places don’t have enough traffic to make tank advertising model pay competition: women replacing with pump handles
  • pencil divide, not a digital divide
  • Distribution includes parts and service

Design for real impact - Kevin Starr Design for real impact - Kevin Starr Presentation Transcript

  • Design for THE BOTTOM BILLION
  •  
  • “ My question is: Are we making an impact?”
  • Know your real mission. REAL IMPACT Get real numbers. Show that it was you. Measure the right thing.
  • “… blah blah blah blah grassroots blah blah blah empower blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah sustainable blah blah capacity-building blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah community blah blah blah innovative blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah strategies blah blah participatory blah blah blah…..” YOUR USUAL MISSION STATEMENT
  • A REAL MISSION
    • nine words or less.
    verb. target . outcome.
  • “ save kids’ lives in Africa”
  • “ get African families out of extreme poverty”
  • “ save premmies in poor countries”
  • “ get people in poor countries out of poverty” et al.
  • MEASURING THE RIGHT THING try this: the single best indicator
  • “ change in child mortality rate”
  • “ the value of additional produce”
  • “ change in infant death rate”
  • “ increased income” et al.
  • activities impact behavior (loans) (income) (repayment) Microfinance 25 -50 -25
  • Getting real numbers Think ahead. The right baseline, the right interval. Sample: enough of the right thing in the right way. (Buy a statistician a beer)
  • Attribution: showing it was you. COUNTERFACTUAL
  • ATTRIBUTION. One. A tight story
  • two . Matched controls
  • three . Randomized controls
  • the miller get device obtain vitamin powder use device to mix in sell fortified flour  parents buy premium flour feed it to kids  kids eat enriched flour  PREDICTING IMPACT Connecting the (behavior) dots healthier kids
  • impact from a thing  real need  real demand  design process   manufacture  distribution..!  marketing  behavior  design ingredients setting user buyer price point idea about distribution emerging technology the competition history of other efforts specs idea for a thing impact the thing
  •  
  • impact from a thing idea for a thing  real need  real demand  design process  the thing  manufacture  distribution  marketing  BEHAVIOR  impact design ingredients setting user buyer price point idea about distribution emerging technology the competition history of other efforts specs
  •  
  • impact from a thing idea for a thing  real need  real demand  design process  the thing  manufacture  distribution  marketing  behavior (?)  impact? design ingredients setting user buyer price point idea about distribution emerging technology the competition history of other efforts specs
  •  
  • impact from a thing idea for a thing  real need  real demand  design process  the thing  manufacture  distribution  marketing  BEHAVIOR  impact design ingredients setting user buyer price point idea about distribution emerging technology the competition history of other efforts specs
  •  
  • impact from a thing idea for a thing  real need  real demand  design process  the thing  manufacture  distribution  marketing  behavior  impact design ingredients setting user buyer price point idea about distribution emerging technology the competition history of other efforts specs
  • Start with need, finish with impact Design for (real) impact Obsess on distribution Go native Get (all) the ingredients right THE BOTTOM BILLION