Prospectus defenseslides


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Prospectus defenseslides

  1. 1. The Evolving National Security Role of the Vice President Prospectus Defense Aaron Mannes December 14, 2011 1
  2. 2. From Throttlebottom to Angler• Once there were two brothers: one ran away to sea, the other was elected Vice-President – and nothing was ever heard from either of them again – Thomas Marshall (VP to Woodrow Wilson)• …the most dangerous vice president we’ve probably had in American history – Joe Biden describing his predecessorIn just a few decades the vice presidency has shifted from obscurity tocentrality, from being an inconsequential position, a “Constitutionalappendage” to being a power center within the White House What Changed? 2
  3. 3. Key Questions• Why has the vice presidency become a source of influence?• Why have presidents been increasingly willing to follow the advice of the vice president?Influence, is defined by Paul Light as “anadviser’s ability to change outcomes from whatthey would have been.” 3
  4. 4. Overview: Three TheoriesThere are three approaches, each with several hypotheses, thatmay explain the growth in vice presidential influence:1) Demands of the modern presidency have created incentives for presidents to give their vice presidents expanded roles2) The growth of the institutional vice presidency has given the vice president resources to play a greater role3) Rise of the outsider presidency has brought people with little Washington experience to the presidency and they have selected their running mates as partners who can help fill these gaps
  5. 5. The Modern Presidency• From Leader to Clerk• Since FDR, responsibilities and powers of the president have expanded dramatically• The following two hypotheses examine the institutional changes to the presidency that have created new incentives for presidents to give an expanded role to their vice presidents 5
  6. 6. H1A: When the president is able to select his vicepresident, the vice president is more likely toexercise influence• In the most early cases, running mates were chosen at the convention by the party faction that lost the nomination• Presidents had little incentive to cooperate with the vice president who was a former rival• Under FDR, the president obtained control of the selection process• Possible Proof: Compare the set of influential VPs with the set of VPs selected by the party nominee 6
  7. 7. H1B: As the demands on the president haveincreased, the vice president will have greateropportunities to exercise influence.• Since the 1930s, the expectations of presidential involvement in national and international affairs has expanded dramatically• Increased demands on the president created incentives for the president to give the vice president a greater role• Possible Proof: Compare the set of influential VPs with the changes in indicators of expansion of presidential responsibility 7
  8. 8. The Institutional Vice Presidency• In the past 60 years, the vice presidency has acquired several institutional attributes, including a seat on the NSC and personal staff• Since the 1970s, the vice presidency has gained semi- institutionalized attributes including a West Wing office, regular meetings with the president, and access to the policy process• Vice presidents have adopted a set of behaviors and strategies to maximize their influence• The following four hypotheses test the importance of the growth of the institutional vice presidency on vice presidential influence 8
  9. 9. H2A: Vice presidents with their own staff arebetter able to exercise influence.• In the 1970s, vice presidents were granted substantial personal staff• Staff allowed the vice president to develop areas of expertise and use surrogates for influence• Possible Proofs: - Compare the set of influential VPs with VPs who had substantial staff - Examine the role of vice presidential staff in cases of vice presidential influence 9
  10. 10. H2B: Vice presidents with an office in the WestWing are better able to exercise influence.• Nothing propinks like propinquity• Since Mondale, vice presidents have had offices in the West Wing, giving the vice president a presence in the heart of the informal aspects of the policy process• Possible Proofs: - Compare the set of influential VPs with the VPs who had West Wing offices - Examine cases of vice presidential influence to determine if and how the VP’s West Wing office played a role 10
  11. 11. H2C: Vice presidents with regular access to thePresident, and with access to White House meetingsand paper-flow for themselves and their staff arebetter able to exercise influence.• As a condition of accepting the vice presidency, Walter Mondale insisted on access to White House meetings and paper-flow for himself and his staff• This has continued with vice presidents since and allows the vice president to follow the policy process and be present or represented at meetings• Possible Proofs: – Compare the set of influential VPs with the VPs who had access to White House meetings and paper-flow – Examine specific cases of vice presidential influence to determine if access to the president, meetings, and paper-flow was a factor 11
  12. 12. H2D: Vice presidents who foster allies on thepresident’s staff, exercise “hidden hand”influence, and avoid publicity for their policypreferences are better able to exercise influence.• After consulting his predecessors, vice president Mondale adopted a set of strategies for influence• Mondale’s successors have continued to employ these strategies• Possible Proof: Study specific cases of vice presidential influence to determine what means the vice president used to advance his preferred policy positions 12
  13. 13. Insider/Outsider• Since the mid-1970s, voters have shown a preference for “outsider” presidential candidates with little or no Washington experience• Outsider candidates are more likely to view the vice president as a governing partner• The following three hypotheses examine the relationship between outsider presidents and influential vice presidents 13
  14. 14. H3A: Outsider presidents are more likely toselect running mates for personal and politicalcompatibility, increasing the likelihood that thePresident will include the VP as a top advisor.• At the heart of vice presidential influence is the president’s willingness to listen• Outsider presidents are more likely to consider their vice president as a partner• Possible Proofs: – Examine pre-selection relationships between candidates and their running mates and – Examine the vice presidential selection process 14
  15. 15. H3B: Outsider presidents are more likely to beinexperienced in areas such as national security affairsand not have strong national security teams, thuscreating opportunities for vice presidential influence.• Presidents inexperienced in foreign policy may have difficulty establishing an organizational framework that serves their needs• This situation can create policy vacuums that an experienced VP can fill• Possible Proofs: – Examine a president’s previous relationships with his national security team – Compare the set of influential vice presidents with the presidents who had strong and weak national security teams – Study specific cases of vice presidential influence to determine if they occurred in areas where the president’s national security team had difficulty formulating policy 15
  16. 16. H3C: Outsider presidents are more likely to seektheir vice presidents’ input in the appointmentsprocess, which increases the VP’s opportunities forinfluence.• Outsider presidents are more likely to include the vice president in the transition process• By helping to select appointees, the vice president can establish lines of confidence throughout the bureaucracy that can help the vice president achieve influence through the bureaucracy• Possible Proofs: – Compare the set of influential vice presidents with the vice presidential role in the transition and appointment process – Examine specific cases of vice presidential influence to determine if lines of confidence in the bureaucracy was a factor 16
  17. 17. Methodology I: Case Studies• Case studies on vice presidents who were: – Influential – Active but not influential – Uninfluential (lost access to the policy process)• These overviews will discuss the VP’s role in the NSC system, access to the president and White House, and general discussions of vice presidential influence• There will also be focused case studies on specific instances of vice presidential influence to tease out the elements contributing to vice presidential influence 17
  18. 18. Methodology II: Process Tracing• Causation is not correlation• Process tracing (according to Bennet and George): “…attempts to identify the intervening causal process - the causal chain and causal mechanism - between an independent variable (or variables) and the outcome of the dependent variable.”• The object is to identify how the presence or absence of specific elements played a role in cases of successful and failed vice presidential influence in order to test the hypotheses 18
  19. 19.   Potential Case Studies  Vice President  Successful Influence   Unsuccessful Influence    Uninfluential Vice President   Wallace    Bureau of Economic Warfare Humphrey    Bombing North Vietnam Agnew    Mars Mission Rockefeller  Energy Initiative  CIA Commission    Substantial Vice President   Hobart     Nixon    Invading Cuba     Defense spending increases GHW Bush  Counter‐Terror Task Force  Supporting Solidarity Quayle  Missile Defense  Space Council    Influential Vice President   Van Buren  French Reparations  Bank of the United States Mondale  Carrier veto  Grain embargo   Vietnam Refugees  Moderating Brzezinski’s role as NSA   Assistance to China   Gore  Balancing Russian Reform   Environment Intelligence Center   Renditions   Cheney  Gitmo & Military Tribunals  Bombing Iran Biden  Afghan troop surge   19