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INDIA’S FUTURE
Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new It has been going on for 25 years
What is the India story?
28 years of  high growth 1.0 3.5 6.0 8.9 (%) Average annual GDP growth 0 2 4 6 8 10 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
Population growth is slowing  Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of...
Literacy is rising Source: Census of India (2001) 17 52 65 80 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Econo...
Poverty is declining 46 26 16 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years  Equals ~ 200m (%) 0...
Per capita income gains Source: World Bank US$ ppp 2005 3,051 1980 1,178
India is now the 4th largest economy <ul><li>It will overtake Japan  between 2012 and 2014  to become the 3rd largest </li...
The India model is unique
Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><li>East and S.E. Asia  </li></ul><ul><u...
Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>...
Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul>...
Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul>...
Implications of India model  <ul><li>‘Domestically led’ means: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Insulation from global downturns </li...
Implication of India model  <ul><li>‘ Services led’ raises uncomfortable questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Have we skipped ...
Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP People Friendly, Less inequality:  G...
Reasons for success India’s success is market-led  whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of t...
Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
India has a vibrant private space  <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn  </li></ul></ul>
India has a vibrant private space  <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
India has a vibrant private space  <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
India has a vibrant private space  <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
India has a vibrant private space  <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
India has a vibrant private space  <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
 
Understanding India’s economic success <ul><ul><li>Remarkable --every government has reformed (slowly)  </li></ul></ul><ul...
“ By 2010 India will have world’s largest  number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a  certai...
Where are we going? <ul><ul><li>Base case post recovery is 7.5 % – 8.5 % GDP growth  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Democracy ...
Per capita income 2,100 3,050 5,800 16,800 37,000 On a ppp basis 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 0 10 20 30 40 ($000)
India will gradually turn middle-class 50% 50% 8% 22% 32% West of the Kanpur- Chennai line East of the Kanpur- Chennai lin...
What could stop the show? <ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>- Improving via public-private partnerships  </li></ul>...
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India Future

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  • Please centre and cut the word old and put It has been onto a new line- could we make a consistent style for statements- maybe always in yellow, centred and growing? Please could we have some kind of outline of India in the background to make the slide prettier
  • Could we use the script- does that fit with template?
  • Could we have a line for the y axis as well as numbers Please animate all graphs so lines/bars and pie charts grow
  • Again y axis
  • Again line for y axis- is there a reason that the line is on green rather than orange?
  • Line for y axis
  • Y axis line Could we put text in white in a box of It– put Equals …..on its own line in yellow to make it more impactful
  • Could we centre up the chart?
  • Cut the word and and centre up. Could we either make the statement grow and/or make it into a different colour to make it more impactful? Or could we add an image – we have loads of India images
  • Is it on brand to use script here?
  • Could we add India image from file? Make yellow title bullet and white sub bullets
  • Again could we add India image from file Same with bullets and sub bullets
  • animate
  • Centre up and change colour Grow as two separate statements
  • Centre these up – maybe make a little bigger?
  • Make bullets consistent
  • Y axis as a line Please cut This means
  • Animate graph
  • Transcript of "India Future"

    1. 1. INDIA’S FUTURE
    2. 2. Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new It has been going on for 25 years
    3. 3. What is the India story?
    4. 4. 28 years of high growth 1.0 3.5 6.0 8.9 (%) Average annual GDP growth 0 2 4 6 8 10 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
    5. 5. Population growth is slowing Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001) 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 (%) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
    6. 6. Literacy is rising Source: Census of India (2001) 17 52 65 80 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
    7. 7. When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002 65 220 368 8% 22% 32% 0 100 200 300 400 1980 2000 2010 (m)
    8. 8. Poverty is declining 46 26 16 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years Equals ~ 200m (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 1980 2000 2010
    9. 9. Per capita income gains Source: World Bank US$ ppp 2005 3,051 1980 1,178
    10. 10. India is now the 4th largest economy <ul><li>It will overtake Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largest </li></ul>
    11. 11. The India model is unique
    12. 12. Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><li>East and S.E. Asia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exports </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>East and S.E. Asia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul></ul>
    14. 14. Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption </li></ul></ul><ul><li>East and S.E. Asia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Drivers of growth <ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumption </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High tech, capital intensive industry </li></ul></ul><ul><li>East and S.E. Asia </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exports </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low tech, labour intensive industry </li></ul></ul>
    16. 16. Implications of India model <ul><li>‘Domestically led’ means: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Insulation from global downturns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Less volatility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We will come out of the global crisis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>faster </li></ul></ul>
    17. 17. Implication of India model <ul><li>‘ Services led’ raises uncomfortable questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Have we skipped the industrial revolution? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How do we take people from farms to cities? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Will SEZ’s be our tipping point? </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP People Friendly, Less inequality: Gini Index Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.? 41% 45% 59% U.S. China Brazil India 33% 58% 42% 64% Europe China India
    19. 19. Reasons for success India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
    20. 20. Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
    21. 21. India has a vibrant private space <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn </li></ul></ul>
    22. 22. India has a vibrant private space <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment </li></ul></ul>
    23. 23. India has a vibrant private space <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. India has a vibrant private space <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India </li></ul></ul>
    25. 25. India has a vibrant private space <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China) </li></ul></ul>
    26. 26. India has a vibrant private space <ul><ul><li>100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>80% credit goes to private sector (v~10% in China) </li></ul></ul>
    27. 28. Understanding India’s economic success <ul><ul><li>Remarkable --every government has reformed (slowly) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>since 1991 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Even slow reforms add up </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>65 countries have done the same reforms – why did India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>become the second fastest in the world? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unappreciated fact – rule of law </li></ul></ul>
    28. 29. “ By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
    29. 30. Where are we going? <ul><ul><li>Base case post recovery is 7.5 % – 8.5 % GDP growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Democracy will not permit more than 8% unless you have a Thatcher </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1.5% population growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demographic dividend – growth will continue beyond China’s </li></ul></ul>
    30. 31. Per capita income 2,100 3,050 5,800 16,800 37,000 On a ppp basis 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 0 10 20 30 40 ($000)
    31. 32. India will gradually turn middle-class 50% 50% 8% 22% 32% West of the Kanpur- Chennai line East of the Kanpur- Chennai line Chennai Kanpur- 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
    32. 33. What could stop the show? <ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>- Improving via public-private partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Fiscal Deficit </li></ul><ul><li>Governance </li></ul><ul><li>None of these stopped the show in the past 25 years </li></ul><ul><li>- Nuclear War? </li></ul>
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