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Andreas Weigend
          @aweigend
     www.weigend.com
Who creates data?
   Production: Data is digital air

How will this data be shared?
  Distribution: Everyone is a publisher

What will this data be used for?
  Consumption: Behavior changes
A Shift in Language


• Collect       • Share

• Solicit       • Distribute

• Mine          • Interpret

• Segment       • Empower
Technologies Enabling Innovation
1800’s: Transport energy 
                   Industrial Revolution

1900’s: Transport data 
                 Information Revolution

2000’s: Create data 
                  Social Data Revolution
In the last sixty seconds…
4,000,000 Web searches

 500,000 Content shares

 100,000 Product searches

  40,000 Tweets created

  40,000 Links shortened
us.hsmglobal.com/contenidos/… bit.ly/WIF2010
Waves of Innovation

1990’s: Search      find


2000’s: Social      share


2010’s: Mobile      create

  Social Data Revolution
How the
      Social Data Revolution
           Changes (Almost) Everything
Agenda
Introduction    Data and Behavior
            I   C2B (Customer-to-Business)
           II   C2C (Customer-to-Customer)
          III   C2W (Customer-to-World)
          IV    Insights
4:55–5:00pm     Q&A
Connecting
Computers
Connecting
Pages
Connecting
People
Underlying?
Data
The amount of data each person creates

doubles every 1.5 … 2 years

                 2x

                     time?
Data
The amount of data each person creates

doubles every 1.5 … 2 years

 □ after five years        x 10
 □ after ten years         x 100
 □ after twenty years      x 10000
Since then…


+ Computation

    + Communication

          + Sensing
1 billion connected sensors
40 billion RFID tags
Pay-as-you-drive car insurance (GPS)
Monitors your excercise and sleep
99% DNA
 overlap
Time Scales

  Data, Technology: ~1 year
      Social Norms: ~10 years
           Biology: ~100k yrs
Agenda
Introduction    Data and Behavior
            I   C2B (Customer-to-Business)
           II   C2C (Customer-to-Customer)
          III   C2W (Customer-to-World)
          IV    Insights
4:55–5:00pm     Q&A
Part I:   C2B
+1 800-4-SCHWAB
Imagine...


     You knew all the things people here have bought

     You knew all of their friends

     You knew their secret desires




         ... what would you do?
Amazon.com helps people
make decisions…           …based on
                           reviews
Customers who   bought   this item also   bought…
Customers who   viewed this item also viewed…
Customers who   viewed this item ultimately bought…
Social proof:
Put your money
where your
mouth is
How do you know peoples’
secret desires?




                    World Innovation Forum
   Attention                 Data Sources
    Clicks, Transactions



                   Intention
                     Search



   Connection                      Situation
     Social graph                    Geo-location
                                     Device
New phone product: How to market?




   Traditional segmentation      Connection data
     Demographics                   Who called whom?
     Loyalty
1.35%


           Adoption
           rate
                  4.8x

   0.28%




 Traditional             Connection
segmentation                data
Business




Customers
C2C      = Customer-to-Customer




Customers share   with each other
Part II:   C2C
Amazon.com Share the Love
Result:        Amazing conversion rates
                 since customer chooses

    Content          (the   item)



    Context          (she just bought that item)




    Connection                (she asked Amazon to email   her friend)



    Conversation                    (information as   excuse for
communication)
Purpose of communication:
to transmit information?




           Or is information just
   an excuse for communication?
What do my friends think of this product?
Social graph targeting




Provide list of prospects
Fraud reduction


      –




Provide risk scores
Social network intelligence
C2W
Part III:
Amazon.com: Public   sharing of interests
Add on-line features to off-line products…
Consumers


- Engage
- Share
- Connect


3 times per week
“We are not in the business of keeping
            the media companies alive.”


                                          Trevor Edwards
                        Nike Corporate Vice President for
                        Brand and Category Management



              “We are in the business of
            connecting with consumers.”

Q: Or rather in the business of facilitating
   consumers to connect with each other?
• Search tweets
• Create tweets
• Follow users
The Illusion of an Audience
Part IV:   Insights
Customer



           Product


                     Brand
From controlled production   for the masses…




           … to uncontrolled production   by the masses
Consumers
discussing
   ideas
Consumers
 helping
consumers
Corner / Oversized Rooms:
                               Rooms Ending in:

                                              Oversized, Corner Room, Quiet
                                   04         Room

                                              Oversized, Corner Room with North
                                   24         Times Square Views (Higher Floors
                                              are Preferred



Rooms to Avoid:
Rooms Ending in:

 01, 21            Possible Ice Machine / Elevator Noise


 08, 17            Limited View Rooms
Group buying… “get a better deal”
E  Me  We-business


   From e-business… (company focus, Web 1.0)


   …to me-business   (customer focus , Web 2.0)


   …to we-business   (community focus , Web 3.0)
Innovation

   Dead data  Live data
    Collect and analyze  Create, share, experiment



   Internal  External
    “Most smart people don’t work here.” Bill Joy
Part V:   Questions
Audience Question 1

    Do you have any advice on how we can
    be authentic in the era of Social Data?

    For companies with limited
    resources, what are the costs of some
    of the suggestions you mentioned in the
    talk?
Audience Question 2

    What is the most important ingredient
    for a successful innovation strategy?

    Do you have any specific suggestion for
    traditional companies: how can we
    learn more about the culture change of
    the Social Data Revolution?
Thank you!




               @aweigend




Andreas Weigend | www.weigend.com

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World Innovation Forum

Editor's Notes

  1. What (if anything) does it mean to own data?
  2. .. AND IT IS HAPPENING IN REAL TIME!Business models40mins on FBFB is 3rd larger “country”Productivity gain OR lossTransport – transport(distribution and consump
  3. Detective workbit.ly/WIF2010
  4. .. AND IT IS HAPPENING IN REAL TIME!Business models40mins on FBFB is 3rd larger “country”Productivity gain OR lossTransport – transport(distribution and consump
  5. Customer 2.0Behavior change for the next billion!
  6. ComputersComputation1970’s“Experts” learn a language the computer understandsDigitizing back office10M people 1980’sFront office interacts with back office100M people
  7. Pages1990’sCustomers interact with firmSearch: 1bn people poking at stuff2000’s
  8. Social commerce1bn people poking at stuff100M people producing stuffPeer-production and collaborationC2C Customers interact with customers
  9. Mobile / Sensing 2010’s1bn people poking at stuff1bn people producing stuff Mobile in addition to PC (and paper)Continuous partial attentionModel current situation plus historySensing
  10. .. AND IT IS HAPPENING IN REAL TIME!Business models40mins on FBFB is 3rd larger “country”Productivity gain OR lossTransport – transport(distribution and consump
  11. 1 billion CONNECTED devices Whether you are with someone, or by yourself, or nobody watching at allSPORE: implicit, explicitSPORE: nr of mobile phone
  12. Understanding purchasing
  13. Customer 2.0Behavior change for the next billion!
  14. What would you use them for?See whether your wife has a lover?e.g., what they want to buyCIA…Focus here: MARKETING AND SALES, Agenda E- Business Data C2C Data (Friends) BreakC2W Data (World)Social Data Revolution
  15. QUESTION: Better a bad review vs suppress itRetail vsmanufacturOrganizational impact?Dashboard - Navigator -RecommenderPresentation - Conversation - DecisionZero-click shopping: Bertelsmann Book ClubMore metadata: people giving collectively / judging etcTransparencyMeta about meta
  16. Based on co-purchasing behavior
  17. …Based on click and purchase data  Nudges the customer through the funnel
  18. Plus REAL IDENTITYSocial Recommendations: Personal shopping recommendations based on profile similarities to other customers.“The click-through and conversion rates — two important measures of Web-based and email advertising effectiveness — vastly exceed those of untargeted content such as banner advertisements and top-seller lists. [...] Our item-to-item collaborative filtering algorithm produces recommendations in realtime, scales to massive data sets, and generates high quality recommendations.”http://agents.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~yjhsu/courses/u2010/papers/Amazon%20Recommendations.pdf
  19. SRC FOR INNOVATION: Get ppl to look at search logDC no box aroundAnd you can tooSYBOL: Homework 1hr to look through search terms
  20. based on experience, intuition, and data Picture of graph from FosterLeveraging the social graph
  21. based on experience, intuition, and data Picture of graph from FosterLeveraging the social graph“Birds of a feather shop together”Hill, Provost, & Volinsky, Network-based Marketing. Statistical Science 21 256–276 (2006)
  22. DC: Redo, as discussed in ER
  23. MerchandisingDefine viral marketing10 years agoAmazon vs FacebookAmazon is about products, interactions with store, not with friends. No NewsFeed.Facebook is about interactions between friends.
  24. Information the purpose for communication
  25. “In the future, the difference between social networks and corporate websites will be hard to distinguish.”http://www.web-strategist.com/blog/2010/04/30/social-commerce-breakdown-how-levis-and-facebook-prompt-your-friends-to-get-you-to-buy/“Many brands are jumping on the social media bandwagon, without giving proper thought about the impacts to their marketing effort.  In particular, many brands are putting ’social chicklets’ on their homepage to “Follow us on Twitter” or “Friend us on Facebook” without considering the ramifications.”http://www.web-strategist.com/blog/2010/03/28/matrix-evolution-of-integration-of-social-media-and-corporate-websites/
  26. Transient: (anonymous) Computes scores across social networks in the US
  27. based on experience, intuition, and data Transient: (anonymous) Computes scores across social networks in the US
  28. Social Apps: creating branded online applications that support social interaction and user contribution.“In the two years since it launched Nike+, a technology that tracks data of every run and connects runners around the world at a Web site, nikeplus.com, Nike has built a legion of fans. Some analysts back up Nike's claims that the site is renewing the popularity of its running shoes. SportsOneSource, a Princeton (N.J.) market research firm, says Nike accounted for 48% of all running-shoe sales in the U.S in 2006. Today, its share is 61%. "A significant amount of the growth comes from Nike+," says Matt Powell, a SportsOneSource analyst. Winters, 28, who had already run a half-marathon, credits Nike+ with boosting her enthusiasm for running and for Nike, too. On nikeplus.com, she's part of a group of 90 runners who challenge each other to go faster and farther.”http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_46/b4108074443945.htm
  29. on average
  30. on average
  31. Not mutual relationships
  32. Not mutual relationships
  33. Engages with Twitter users:Monitors Twitter for comments about company and competitors
  34. companies thought they own their customer  switching costs largely gonecompanies thought they own product -> who knows more about my phone: manufacturer? Carrier? … or the web?companies thought they own brand  co-creationcustomers talk about whatever they want to talk about CONVERSATIONUltimately, all about data. Social data.
  35. Mass Production / Industrial Age
  36. Past - Physical presence to fully assess suitability of real estatePresent - Richness of data exchanged online (via pictures, videos, crime incidences history) allow filtering. Choice of agents increased - not limited to recommendation by people we know but also online reviews and ratings by many others. But trust still a heavy component in finding a reliable agent. (agency / incentive problem not solved by SDR but mitigated nonetheless)Mash-ups crime dataImmoscout incentivesBroadcast  co-creation
  37. Who is in control?
  38. Push and pray  Launch and learn
  39. Push and pray  Launch and learn
  40. Push and pray  Launch and learn