Agile Estimation SD Forum

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    Agile Estimation SD Forum - Presentation Transcript

    1.  
    2. Effort estimation in agile projects Elad Sofer - Agile coach & Scrum master. Nokia Siemens networks blog - http://eladsof.blogli.co.il LinkedIn - http://www.linkedin.com/in/eladsofer
    3. How to estimate this task ?
    4. What makes estimation agile ?
      • Effort estimation Is not considered as a phase in the project
      • Changes are expected, embrace change.
      • Estimations are easily correctable.
      • Estimate by feature not by activity
      • Estimate by a multi-disciplinary team.
      • And…
    5. “ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [
    6. Persistence of time
    7. How long will it take to…
      • Read the bible
      • Drive to Paris ?
      • Solve a math equation ?
      • Add support for LDAP ?
    8. 34.4
    9. Basic assumptions for estimation
      • We are not good in measuring absolute values.
      • We are good in comparing things.
      • We have the basic math skills (or a calculator).
      • High accuracy has a high toll.
      • Estimates are not commitments
      • Time is not persistent.
    10. Story points
      • Unitless.
      • Name is derived from user stories.
      • They reflect the “bigness” of a user story.
        • How hard it is ?
        • How risky it is ?
        • How much of it there is ?
      • Relative values matters.
      • Point values “include uncertainty”.
      • Easy and quick
        • A little effort helps a lot
        • A lot of effort helps a little more
    11. Estimation techniques
      • Expert opinion
      • Analogy
      • Educated guess
      • Disaggregating
      • Planning poker
    12. Planning poker
      • Each person gets a deck of cards.
      • The item to be estimated is read to all.
      • Attendants ask clarifications for the item.
      • Each person selects a card and puts it on the table facing down.
      • When everyone is done, cards are exposed.
      • If the estimations do not match a short discussion is done. -> Goto 4.
      • Handle next item.
    13. Why planning poker works ?
      • Those who do the work estimate it.
      • Emphasizes relative estimation
      • Estimates are within one order of magnitude.
      • Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.
    14. Specification length
      • One page spec
      • Group A
      • 7 Pages spec
      • Group B
      173 hours 117 hours
    15. Irrelevant information
      • Group A
      • added irrelevant details:
        • End user desktop apps
        • Usernames & passwords
        • Etc.
      • Group B
      39 hours 20 hours
    16. Extra requirements
      • Requirements 1-4
      • Group A
      • Requirements 1-5
      • Group B
      4 hours 4 hours
      • Requirements 1-5 but told to estimate 1-4 only
      • Group C
      8 hours
    17. Given anchor
      • Group A
      • Customer thinks 500
        • customer has no technical knowledge
        • Don’t let the customer influence you
      • Group B
      555 hours 456 hours
      • Same as B customer thinks 50
      • Group C
      99 hours
    18. Why planning poker works ?
      • Those who do the work estimate it.
      • Emphasizes relative estimation
      • Estimates are within one order of magnitude.
      • Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.
      • Modeled for open discussion – forces thinking.
      • It’s quick & fun !
    19. How to calculate time ? S V T
    20. Velocity
      • How many points can the team complete in one iteration.
      • Easy to measure.
      • Fixes estimation errors.
      • Easily reflects the project status.
      • Primary parameter in planning.
    21. vs + So what will it be ?

    + Aviram EisenbergAviram Eisenberg, 3 months ago

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