Effort estimation  in agile projects Elad Sofer  - Agile coach & Scrum master. Nokia Siemens networks blog -  http://elads...
How to estimate this task ?
What makes estimation agile ? <ul><li>Effort estimation Is not considered as a phase in the project </li></ul><ul><li>Chan...
“ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [
Persistence of time
How long will it take to… <ul><li>Read the bible </li></ul><ul><li>Drive to Paris ? </li></ul><ul><li>Solve a math equatio...
34.4
Basic assumptions for estimation  <ul><li>We are not good in measuring absolute values. </li></ul><ul><li>We are good in c...
Story points <ul><li>Unitless. </li></ul><ul><li>Name is derived from user stories. </li></ul><ul><li>They reflect the “bi...
Estimation techniques <ul><li>Expert opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Educated guess </li></ul><ul><li>...
Planning poker <ul><li>Each person gets a deck of cards. </li></ul><ul><li>The item to be estimated is read to all. </li><...
Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </l...
Specification length <ul><li>One page spec </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>7 Pages spec </li></ul><ul><li>Grou...
Irrelevant information <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>added irrelevant details: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>End user desktop ...
Extra requirements <ul><li>Requirements 1-4 </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Requirements 1-5 </li></ul><ul><li...
Given anchor <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Customer thinks 500  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>customer has no technical knowle...
Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </l...
How to calculate time ? S V T
Velocity <ul><li>How many points can the team complete in one iteration. </li></ul><ul><li>Easy to measure. </li></ul><ul>...
vs + So what will it be ?
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Agile Estimation SD Forum

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This lecture was given in one of the SD Forum meetings by Elad Sofer, an Agile practitioner and coach

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Agile Estimation SD Forum

  1. 2. Effort estimation in agile projects Elad Sofer - Agile coach & Scrum master. Nokia Siemens networks blog - http://eladsof.blogli.co.il LinkedIn - http://www.linkedin.com/in/eladsofer
  2. 3. How to estimate this task ?
  3. 4. What makes estimation agile ? <ul><li>Effort estimation Is not considered as a phase in the project </li></ul><ul><li>Changes are expected, embrace change. </li></ul><ul><li>Estimations are easily correctable. </li></ul><ul><li>Estimate by feature not by activity </li></ul><ul><li>Estimate by a multi-disciplinary team. </li></ul><ul><li>And… </li></ul>
  4. 5. “ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [
  5. 6. Persistence of time
  6. 7. How long will it take to… <ul><li>Read the bible </li></ul><ul><li>Drive to Paris ? </li></ul><ul><li>Solve a math equation ? </li></ul><ul><li>Add support for LDAP ? </li></ul>
  7. 8. 34.4
  8. 9. Basic assumptions for estimation <ul><li>We are not good in measuring absolute values. </li></ul><ul><li>We are good in comparing things. </li></ul><ul><li>We have the basic math skills (or a calculator). </li></ul><ul><li>High accuracy has a high toll. </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates are not commitments </li></ul><ul><li>Time is not persistent. </li></ul>
  9. 10. Story points <ul><li>Unitless. </li></ul><ul><li>Name is derived from user stories. </li></ul><ul><li>They reflect the “bigness” of a user story. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How hard it is ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How risky it is ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How much of it there is ? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Relative values matters. </li></ul><ul><li>Point values “include uncertainty”. </li></ul><ul><li>Easy and quick </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A little effort helps a lot </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A lot of effort helps a little more </li></ul></ul>
  10. 11. Estimation techniques <ul><li>Expert opinion </li></ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Educated guess </li></ul><ul><li>Disaggregating </li></ul><ul><li>Planning poker </li></ul>
  11. 12. Planning poker <ul><li>Each person gets a deck of cards. </li></ul><ul><li>The item to be estimated is read to all. </li></ul><ul><li>Attendants ask clarifications for the item. </li></ul><ul><li>Each person selects a card and puts it on the table facing down. </li></ul><ul><li>When everyone is done, cards are exposed. </li></ul><ul><li>If the estimations do not match a short discussion is done. -> Goto 4. </li></ul><ul><li>Handle next item. </li></ul>
  12. 13. Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates are within one order of magnitude. </li></ul><ul><li>Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard. </li></ul>
  13. 14. Specification length <ul><li>One page spec </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>7 Pages spec </li></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>173 hours 117 hours
  14. 15. Irrelevant information <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>added irrelevant details: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>End user desktop apps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Usernames & passwords </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>39 hours 20 hours
  15. 16. Extra requirements <ul><li>Requirements 1-4 </li></ul><ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Requirements 1-5 </li></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>4 hours 4 hours <ul><li>Requirements 1-5 but told to estimate 1-4 only </li></ul><ul><li>Group C </li></ul>8 hours
  16. 17. Given anchor <ul><li>Group A </li></ul><ul><li>Customer thinks 500 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>customer has no technical knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t let the customer influence you </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Group B </li></ul>555 hours 456 hours <ul><li>Same as B customer thinks 50 </li></ul><ul><li>Group C </li></ul>99 hours
  17. 18. Why planning poker works ? <ul><li>Those who do the work estimate it. </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasizes relative estimation </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates are within one order of magnitude. </li></ul><ul><li>Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard. </li></ul><ul><li>Modeled for open discussion – forces thinking. </li></ul><ul><li>It’s quick & fun ! </li></ul>
  18. 19. How to calculate time ? S V T
  19. 20. Velocity <ul><li>How many points can the team complete in one iteration. </li></ul><ul><li>Easy to measure. </li></ul><ul><li>Fixes estimation errors. </li></ul><ul><li>Easily reflects the project status. </li></ul><ul><li>Primary parameter in planning. </li></ul>
  20. 21. vs + So what will it be ?
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