Extrapolation of the past vs inventing the future & booting the Start-up Ecosystem - Keynote by Vinod Khosla

“extrapolation of the past” vs. “inventing the future” & booting the Start-up Ecosystem 1

“Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success.” tweet 2

History1998: Software vs. Services2000: Landlines vs. VOIP/MobileSo what is next? 3

large shifts are possible 4

as surely as... 1985: NOT a PC in every home 1990: NO email 1995: NOT the internet 2000: NO pervasive mobile 2004: NO facebook 2007: NO iPhone; NO iPad 2011+: reason for optimism 5

can we reinvent India… 6

“All progress depends on theunreasonable man” - George Bernard Shaw “Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted” - Martin Luther King 7

“Heavier-than-air flyingmachines are impossible” - Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895 8

“The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as ameans of communication.” - Western Union Internal Memo, 1876 9

“There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home” - Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and Founder of DEC, 1977 10

…when conventional wisdom makes no sense Should fever be reduced in critically ill patients: “there were seven deaths in people getting standard treatment and only one in those allowed to have fever…” …at which point the study was halted due to ethical concerns 11Source: New Scientist - http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727711.400-fever-friend-or-foe.html

Extrapolating the past…1995: Internet Technology will never replace telecom (ATM) networks The reality… Today, the world runs on internet technology (TCP / IP) 12

telecommunications: actual vs. forecast demand Actual 1,000 GB/s 1995 projection 1987 projection 1983 projection 1980 projection 1978 projection 1 GB/s 13Source: internal forecasts for major telecommunications company

oil price forecasts (1985-2005) $51 5 year forecast error Forecast 10 year forecast error Actual $15 1985 1990 1995 2000 14Data/Source: World Oil Prices Barrel) (current $ / - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting

Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers 1986 forecast for 2000 forecast actual 15Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml

yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast 1980’s phone: year 2000 phone: 2011 phone: 500,000+ available apps 18bn+ apps downloaded 16

the folly of predictions: tetlock study hundreds of experts. 80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years results: experts are poorer forecasters than dart- throwing monkeys 17Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1

The illusion of knowing … vs. … knowing that we don‟t know 18

… and its getting even harder to predict Years until use by 1/4 of US population 1 Internet 10 Personal Mobile phone computer Television Radio Telephone 100 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year of commercial availability 19Source:L Coutesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc. Wkimedia commons, Mobile web post 3G

Linear StartupsFlipkartSnapdealMakemytrip & CleartripCaratlane 20

India Specific (not necessarily all likely to succeed)EkgaonEkoRadio Tuk Tuk / RickshawalageosocialseShaktiGharpayInmobi 21

what will it be? privacy vs. personalization Taste graphs curation vs. creation of online content who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd? discovery vs. recommendation mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value? where will HTML 5 lead?curation of goods in the real world? 22

Enterprise redo… New architectures: NutanixCUDA supercomputers New routers (Big Switch) Mobile/Tablet: access/security (moka5, lookout) Big/unstructured data (kaggle) 23

not yet done… Payments privacy & authentication Convey intent sensors Reputation medicine Anticipate needs (agents)Semantic Web Analysis: Network, behavior,… personalization Everything everywhere Discovery Group-sourced innovation 24

The future… Broader access Post-PC eraConsumerization of technology Economic efficiency New behaviors Anytime/anywhere 25

“the cool dozen” 26

data reduction (sulia, datasift)“exponentially increasing data distilled to what you want to know” 27

big data analytics (billguard, recorded future …) “exponential data increase transformed into insight” 28

emotion (ness, foodspotting) “delight the user” 29

education (CK12) “will we need teachers?” 30

TV 2.0 (second screen, augmented reality) “turn watchers into participants” 31

social NEXT “social for a purpose” 32

interest graph (meebo, …) “brand advertising” “web check-in” 33

health (Up…) “quantified self” “do we need doctors?” 34

NFC (Verayo …)“security and authentication for people and products” “universal login, payments, records, banking…” 35

democratization of publishing (Storify, snip.it…) “social curation” 36

utility (seatme, ringshuffle, weatherbill…) “finally; useful applications” 37

Marketplaces (InterviewStreet) “rethinking employment and engagement” 38

…and other “out there” ideasMind goggling – brain scans to reveal the mind...MedAfrica – health information for the BoP…Fingerprint paper/Forgery foil – authentication…Crime Stopper - crowdsourced crime solving…Ekgaon/Nokia Total Life – advice to ALL farmers… 39

but has time for originalproduct companies arrived? (beyond outsourcing, beyond western markets, beyond small shifts) 40

…doctors/healthcare “quality info, diagnosis and suggestions for everyone” 41

…teachers/education “do we need teachers or classrooms?” “universal access to quality education” 42

…shopping “shop anywhere, pay many ways” “broad choices, no inventory” 43

…marketplaces (talent) “everyone has an opportunity” “meritocracy” 44

…payments/cash “maximum access and low/no fees” 45

…UIDAI “multi-functional ID/transaction platform” “skepticism or opportunity?” 46

Secure NFC + QR + UIDAI …?Authentication of products, people, devicesBuilding entries, Checkins/loyalty + extended reachTwo/three factor authentication for high securityBanking, tolls, ticketing, travel, shopping, … 47

…some personal stories (sun, juniper, google, energy,…..) 48

so what is innovation about? 49

“Try and fail, but dont fail to try” - Stephen Kaggwa“Courage is doing what youre afraid to do. There can be no courage My willingness to fail gives me theunless youre scared.” - Eddie Rickenbacker ability to succeed“Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.”- Robert F.Kennedy I don’t mind failing but it better be“You will face manysucceeding if we yourself be worth defeats in your life, but never let succeed!defeated.” - Maya Angelou 50

…taking riskYou can only lose 1x your/their money… Do what you love and are passionate about fear, but courage Guts and premature confidence Irreverence and rule breaking Start leading… 51

…taking risklots of charts! Ask why? >65% are under 40! are disadvantages of India a problem? …awareness, channels, bandwidth an opportunity? …too much respect for MNC‟s, govt? Best to work for startup or Google, FB,…? 52

know your goalsFortune: Never balance your checkbook Freedom: Never having to say you are sorry Fame: Never carry the Amex card Fervor: Passion for a vision Friends: Never having to leave home 53

Questions?vk@khoslaventures.com 54

a few thoughts on energy 55

Re-inventing Energy 56

…5B people want to live like 500M do today 57Source: EIA

…technology expands the „art of the possible.‟…today‟s „unimaginable‟ is tomorrow‟s „conventional wisdom.‟ 58

…economics matterNOTHING that defies the law of economic gravity can scale 59

solutions for ... oil ... coal ... materials ... (efficiency of oil & coal use) 60

“...relevant cost”“...relevant scale”“...relevant adoption” 61

“the clean dozen” 62

What if oil was a 100% renewable and cheaperthan fossil crude oil and we used 50% less of it? 63

kior“a million year crude production cycle reduced to minutes and market competitive?” 64

ecomotors“Engine that delivers 50%+ vehicle efficiency for lower cost?” 65

What if coal based electricity could be 75%cleaner and we used 75% less of it for lighting andcooling? 66

ciris“ … clean coal without ever taking it out of the ground” 67

calera “ ... turning problem carbon dioxide into a feedstock for building materials” 68

soraa “no-compromise 80% more efficient pay-for-itself lighting” 69

Cooling “new thermodynamic cycles and thermoelectrics” 70

…electricity storage was low cost for both stationary & mobile applications 71

lightsail“ 5x cheaper grid scale energy storage, using only air” 72

Quantumscape/Pellion Quantumnanothingamijigit/magnesium 73

…we applied unconventional technology tolarge problems like steel, sugars & agriculture? 74

Advanced Agriculture“massively cutting fertilizer & pesticide use and increasing yields” 75

New metals “reinvent materials science” “approach theoretical perfection at large scale” 76

HCL “food-grade sugars from any biomass” 77

…imagine the possible 78

to predict the future, invent it! 79

Questions?vk@khoslaventures.com 80

Extrapolation of the past vs inventing the future & booting the Start-up Ecosystem - Keynote by Vinod Khosla

by NASSCOM EMERGE Forum on Nov 11, 2011

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Extrapolation of the past vs inventing the future & booting the Start-up Ecosystem - Keynote by Vinod Khosla — Presentation Transcript

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