1 Towardsa Global Atm Conceptthe European Contribution Victor Aguado Eurocontrol

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  • Ladies and Gentlemen, Good morning. I am pleased and honoured to have this opportunity to share some views with you on future developments in global ATM. Before looking to the future, it is always useful to understand the past. I think it is fair to say that in the past, whereas safety was the leitmotiv of Air Traffic Management, developments in global ATM were driven by developments in technology. Examples of this pattern include ILS, MLS and even recently the use of GPS in ATM. The current debate surrounding datalink seems to fit into this mould. Today, however, while safety is the main driver of Air Traffic Management, increasingly the leitmotiv is cost-efficiency – in which area I include capacity. So, let us look at how significant this issue of cost-efficiency still is for airlines today.
  • 1 Towardsa Global Atm Conceptthe European Contribution Victor Aguado Eurocontrol

    1. 1. Towards a Global Air Traffic Management Concept
    2. 2. The persistent need for cost-efficiency <ul><ul><li>&quot;Airlines have been a serial killer of capital. We have done a good job for consumers of selling our product at less than cost. In our view the industry is a giant charity&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>John Owen, Finance Director of Jet Blue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;Is there light at the end of the tunnel ? No. None of us make money at those energy prices&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gary Kelly, Chief Executive of SouthWest </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. The persistent need for cost-efficiency <ul><li>IATA: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$5.5 billion forecast airline industry losses for 2005 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>High price of fuel </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>System-wide break-even load factors rise </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$40 billion losses for the period 2001-2005 </li></ul></ul>Source: IATA
    4. 4. Airline operating costs
    5. 5. Low-Cost Carriers market share in Europe <ul><li>9% flight growth in ’04 </li></ul><ul><li>10.4% market share </li></ul><ul><li>Slower market share growth than 2003 </li></ul>
    6. 6. The Air Transport revenue chain Return on capital invested 16% 15% 6% 14% 13% 10% >30% Aircraft Manufacturers 2 suppliers: 100% of market Aircraft Leasing Companies 2 suppliers: 45% of market Airlines > 1500 airlines, over capacity, strong competition Airport Handling Services Mostly monopolies at state-run airports, less than 3 suppliers privately owned airports Catering 2 suppliers: 40% of market, 7 suppliers service 70% Airports monopoly Glogal Distribution Systems 4 suppliers worldwide, some dominate specific regions ANSPs Source: McKinsey, TEATS Ltd 2.8 to 10% Aircraft Manufacturers Aircraft Leasing Companies Airlines Aircraft Handling Services Catering Airport Aircraft Leasing Companies ANSPs
    7. 7. <ul><li>What is needed at Global level </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Safety </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interoperability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transparency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predictability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>=> Performance </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Towards a Global Air Traffic Management Concept
    8. 8. A long history of common concept work <ul><li>1987: EUROCONTROL ATS Concept Group report </li></ul><ul><li>1989: ICAO/EUR FEATS concept, GARTEUR concept paper </li></ul><ul><li>1990: PHARE & CATMAC (BFS) concepts </li></ul><ul><li>1991: FEATS input to FANS work endorsed by ICAO ANC/10 </li></ul><ul><li>1993: EATMS initial operational concept </li></ul><ul><li>1995: User Requirements Document </li></ul><ul><li>1997: OCD V1 </li></ul><ul><li>1997: ATM 2000+ Strategy development launched </li></ul><ul><li>1999: OCD V1.1 </li></ul><ul><li>1999: ICAO ATMCP work starts </li></ul><ul><li>2000: ATM 2000+ Strategy approved </li></ul><ul><li>2003: ATM 2000+ Strategy revised </li></ul><ul><li>2003: ICAO ANC/11 endorses OCD </li></ul><ul><li>2004: EUROCONTROL OCD V2 </li></ul><ul><li>2004: Industry road map (presented by IATA) </li></ul><ul><li>EC: several concept studies since 1991 (AEGIS, ATLAS, TORCH, Gate-2-Gate, C-ATM) have been exploited </li></ul><ul><li>2005: EURO OCD/ConOps integrated with C-ATM </li></ul>
    9. 9. European Contribution EURO OCD ICAO OCD ATM 2000+ European ATM Master Plan IATA
    10. 10. Air Traffic Management performance <ul><li>European Air Traffic Management delivers solid performance </li></ul>Capacity Safety Total Costs vs Traffic Unit Costs
    11. 11. Traffic / Delays Delays have reached an all-time low: En-Route Flow Management delay: 1.2 min/flight Summer 2004
    12. 12. Traffic / Delays Delays have reached an all-time low: En-Route Flow Management delay: 1.2 min/flight Summer 2004
    13. 13. Air Traffic Management performance <ul><li>European Air Traffic Management delivers solid performance </li></ul>Capacity Safety Total Costs vs Traffic Unit Costs
    14. 14. Safety <ul><li>A coherent way forward must be developed, addressing: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A Europe-wide ATM safety information flow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A Europe-wide review system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Runway Incursion Prevention Plan </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Capacity <ul><li>Resolute action is needed to meet the rapidly growing demand. </li></ul>
    16. 16. The Airports Challenge <ul><li>If demand keeps growing at 4.3% p.a. (scenario A), airports will severely constrain traffic growth in 2025 </li></ul><ul><li>3.7 million unaccommodated flights/yr will cause pressure to change traffic pattern </li></ul>2.5 growth factor if sufficient airport capacity 2.0 growth factor with max achievable airport capacity
    17. 17. European Air Traffic Management Master Plan <ul><li>A quantum jump in ATM performance </li></ul><ul><li>short-term: DMEAN & management of bottlenecks </li></ul><ul><li>medium-term: Sector productivity / Controller tools </li></ul><ul><li>long-term: SESAME </li></ul>
    18. 18. Air transport delays <ul><li>Improved predictability of air transport would generate high added-value </li></ul><ul><li>Compressing half of flight schedules by 5 minutes is worth some €1,000M p.a. </li></ul>Schedule Early arrival OUT OFF ON IN Buffer Late arrival Airborne Taxi Out Taxi In Behind schedule Ahead of schedule Delay Schedule ON Time Distribution of arrival time and on-time performance Predictability Buffer
    19. 19. Cost-effectiveness Raising performance to 3 rd best levels: Significant improvements (10%= €700 M p.a.) Complexity is not an obstacle to high productivity (Maastricht, CH, NL, UK) Support costs: 23% Productivity: +56%
    20. 20. Flight efficiency <ul><li>Actual routes </li></ul><ul><li>Flight-efficiency, a major contributor to ATM performance </li></ul><ul><li>€ 1,000M - €1,500M p.a. </li></ul><ul><li>Airspace design and strategic use is the most critical element Further work is needed, involving civil and military concerned parties </li></ul>Filed route (F) Actual route (A) Shortest route (S) Great Circle (G) ATC routing Route selection En-route design 476 NM 480 NM 475 NM 448 NM -1.0 % 1.0 % Direct route (D) TMA interface + 28 NM Er: 6.2% 457 NM 4.2 % 2.0 % Strategic Tactical
    21. 21. Fragmentation Lack of ATM system coordination Constrained route & sector design Lack of ACC economies of scale Over-provision of secondary radar Communications/navigation duplication Sub-optimal maintenance/development Piecemeal procurement Fragmented planning Causes of fragmentation costs
    22. 22. Functional Blocks of Airspace
    23. 23. Common Air Navigation Charging Scheme <ul><li>Main features of proposed Implementing Rules </li></ul><ul><li>Consistency with EUROCONTROL system </li></ul><ul><li>Distinction between En-route and Terminal charges </li></ul><ul><li>Definition of « charging volumes of airspace » in consistency with ATC operations </li></ul><ul><li>Incentives for air navigation service providers and airspace users </li></ul>
    24. 24. NETWORK OPTIMISATION Cooperative Network Design, Pan-European Functions National Pan-European Regulation Service Provision Air Traffic Management Success Factors Regulation Service Provision Regulation Service Provision Regulation Service Provision Regulation Service Provision Regulation Service Provision Functional Blocks GLOBAL PLANNING - GLOBAL CONCEPT Global
    25. 25. <ul><li>&quot;The international aviation system can only become viable if airlines, service providers and regulators jointly address and resolve the fundamental issues.“ (source AEA) </li></ul>Conclusion

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