Video Ads Destroy TV Ads in Effectiveness by Augustine Fou

Video AdsDestroyTV Ads INEffectiveness Dr. Augustine Fou http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou April 23, 2012.

Executive Summary • The purpose of this analysis is to compare the quantity of video ad impressions vs TV (network and cable) ad impressions and then to compare the usefulness and impact for advertisers. • Brand advertisers should ask: • Whether their TV ads were even seen; don’t just ask for reach • How TV ads compare on CPM basis to other tactics • If there is a feedback mechanism, like click-throughs, to calculate effectiveness and impact (with TV ads there isn’t)April 23, 2012 2

Calculating TV Ad ImpressionsApril 16, 2012. 3

Ad Impressions Calculation # of Viewers x Length of Show = Viewer Hours Ad Impressions = Viewer Hours x 24 ads/hr Assumptions: - Use the maximum # of ads per hour (24) - Every user views every ad (which of course is false)April 23, 2012 4

Amount of AdvertisingNetwork TV • For every 30 minute episode, there are about 9 mins of ads (or 10 – 12 ads ) – used How I Met Your Mother as proxy • For every 60 minute episode, there are about 19 mins of ads (or 20 – 24 ads ) – used 24 as proxyApril 23, 2012 5

Ad Impressions (Top 25 Network Shows) Source: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/04/17/tv-ratings-broadcast-top-25-american-idol-ncis-top-week-30-viewing/129412/April 23, 2012 6

Amount of AdvertisingCable TV • For every 30 minute episode, there are about 7 mins of ads (or 8 – 9 ads ) – used Spongebob Squarepants as proxy • For every 60 minute episode, there are about 18 mins of ads (or 16 – 18 ads ) – used In Plain Sight as proxyApril 23, 2012 7

Ad Impressions (Top 25 Cable Shows) Source: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/04/17/tv-ratings-broadcast-top-25-american-idol-ncis-top-week-30-viewing/129412/April 23, 2012 8

Online Video Ad ImpressionsApril 16, 2012. 9

Video Ad Details Inputs: Derived Data: Avg online content video: 6.4 mins 22 hrs of video per viewer/mo Avg online video ad: 0.4 mins 19 mins of ads per viewer/mo 181 million U.S. Users watch videos 37 billion videos watched (March 2012) 8.4 billion video ads (March 2012) Video ads on 18.5% of videos viewed 1.5% of viewing time spent on ads Source: MarketingCharts, April 24, 2012April 23, 2012 10

ComparisonApril 16, 2012. 11

By The Numbers Network/Cable TV Online Video 132 hrs of TV per viewer/mo* 22 hrs of video per viewer/mo 41.8 hrs of ads per viewer/mo 19 mins of ads per viewer/mo 32% time spent on ads 1.5% time spent on ads 24.5B ad impr by Top 25 Network Shows 5.1B ad impr by Top 25 Cable Shows 30B ad impressions per month 8.4B video ad views (March 2012) DON’T‘ KNOW IF USER SAW IT Know user saw ad and have further metrics of clicks * Source:: http://www.emarketer.com/blog/index.php/time-spent-watching-tv-tops-internet/April 23, 2012 12

What % of ads are viewed? Network/Cable TV Online Video 30B TV ads aired /mo 8.4B video ads shown /mo (March 2012) • Nielsen estimates 56% ads skipped by DVR Completion Rates (% ads viewed to completion) • IPG/YuMe estimates 63% ads avoided • 78%: 0 – 15 second ads • 60% ads skipped was used to calculate • 74%: 16 – 30s ads viewed to completion • 61%: 31 – 60 second ads • 40% TV ads not skipped (possibly viewed) • 54%: >60 seconds 12B TV ads viewed /mo 6.2B video ads viewed /mo • Source:: Nielsen (2010) estimates that around 56% of ads are never seen (because they are skipped using DVR) • http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/do-americans-watch-more-dvrd-commercials-than-you-think/ • IPG/YuMe (2011) shows that 63% of TV ads are ignored (because users turn away or are doing something else when commercials come on). • http://adage.com/article/adagestat/smartphones-a-bigger-distraction-dvrs/227725/April 23, 2012 13

Online Video Spanks TV Ads General Recall: Video Ads 41% better than TV Ads Brand Recall: Video Ads 79% better than TV Ads Message Recall: Video Ads 86% better than TV Ads Likeability: Video Ads 86% better than TV AdsApril 23, 2012 14

Video 2x better, especially amongyounger viewers 13-24 yr olds: Video Ads 2x better than TV Ads 25-34 yr olds: Video Ads 2x better than TV Ads 35-49 yr olds: Video Ads 1.8x better than TV Ads 50+ yr olds: Video Ads 1.3x better than TV AdsApril 23, 2012 15

MAJORITY of Users Skip TV Ads 65% 65% 54%April 19, 2012. 16

Large % of ads are never seen Findings: comScore, March 26, 2012 • nearly a third (31%) of online display ads are never seen, • 72% of campaigns had at least some ads “If potentially up to 65% running next to objectionable content. of TV ads are not even Findings: AdSafe, Q4 2011 seen, shouldn‟t the • Over 38% of online display ads are proponents be more never seen • Of the ones that are seen, 75% are transparent and report viewed for less than 0.5 seconds „viewed ads‟ instead of continuing to obfuscate data to hide the truth?” Google, comScore, AdSafe proposing new ways to measure “viewed ad” for online displayApril 19, 2012. 17

The new reality isn’t pretty for TV advertising Advertisers should know that … • Of the 30 billion theoretical monthly ad impressions across the Top 25 network and cable TV shows … • If we take into account the 50 – 65% skipping via DVRs, the theoretical impressions drop to 12 billion /month … • If brand advertisers are not sure if their ads are even seen, then even the “branding” argument breaks down.April 23, 2012 18

Comparative CostsCost per Thousand (CPM) : Cost to reach 1,000 users or impressions $500 $450 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $250 $200 $150 $140 $100 $50 $30 $15 $7 $2 $0 Direct Mail Mail Order Drive Time Prime Time Online Online Online Catalog Radio TV Video Ads Display Search Source: Why Digital Kicks Traditional Tactics in Cost Effectiveness, March 16, 2012March 16, 2012. 19

Smart advertisers havealready shifted dollarsApril 23, 2012 20

So What? If on a CPM basis TV ads cost about the same as online video ads ($30 vs $15 CPM), wouldn‟t it be better to use the one where you KNOW the user saw the ad (video ad plays) and there are further metrics (click-through) to measure impact. - Dr. Augustine FouApril 23, 2012 21

Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist Dr. Augustine Fou is an industry-recognized thought leader in digital strategy, search and social media marketing and former Group Chief Digital Officer of Omnicoms Healthcare Consultancy Group. Dr. Fou has over 16 years of management consulting and digital strategy consulting experience, advising CMOs, marketing executives, and global brands. He pioneered the application of the Unified Marketing™ framework to optimize marketing and advertising across traditional and digital channels. FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT 95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefouApril 23, 2012 22 acfou@mktsci.com

Acknowledgements Christian Busch General Manager, Alloy Digital @christianbusch Jonathan Mendez CEO, Yieldbot @JonathanMendez Mark Risis VP, Interactive Advertising, Tivo mrisis@tivo.com Ash Karbasfrooshan CEO, WatchMojo @ashkan Tim Fogarty Sr. Digital Strategist, M80 @n0her0esApril 23, 2012 23

APPENDIXApril 16, 2012. 24

Free Video Ad Impressions 25 million impressions in 10 days http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=316AzLYfAzw If the ad is content, now online video makes it possible to reach as large if not larger audiences than network TV shows AND you know users actually played the video.

Top 10 Brands on Network TV • Only 5 of 10 top brands are advertisers; the rest are “house ads” promoting own network • There are 10,080 minutes in a week; this chart says every single advertiser had ads played on average 1 – 2 times a minute. • It we take 10 – 12 ads per half hour, we get 3,500 ads per week, assuming every hour of a 24 hr day is primetime.April 23, 2012 26

Top 10 Brands on Cable TV • Only 5 of 10 top brands are advertisers; the rest are “house ads” promoting own networkApril 23, 2012 27

Video Ad CPMs Video Ad Pre-roll CPMs: $10 - $11 Video Ad Pre-roll CPMs: $8 - $10 (Women’s Lifestyle) Source: TubeMogul, Nov 17, 2011April 23, 2012 28

Video Ad Viewers areImpatient Completion Rates (ads viewed to completion) 78%: 0 – 15 second ads 74%: 16 – 30 second ads 61%: 31 – 60 second ads 54%: >60 seconds Source: Vindico via MarketingCharts, April 13, 2012April 23, 2012 29

Time Spent Online TVApril 23, 2012 30

Time Spent Across MediaApril 23, 2012 31

Time Spent vs Ad SpendApril 23, 2012 32

YouTube hits 3B views perday Source; YouTube Press Release May 25, 2011April 23, 2012 33

Network Top 25 w/e April 15, 2012 R=Repeat # Viewers S=Special HH Rating HH Share Rank Shows Net (Live+SD) P=Premier (Live+SD) (Live+SD) (000) e 1 NCIS CBS 17660 11.0 18 2 American Idol-WEDNESDAY FOX 16807 10.0 16 3 Dancing with the Stars ABC 16387 10.6 16 4 American Idol-THURSDAY FOX 15810 9.7 16 5 DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 13386 8.9 13 6 NCIS: LOS ANGELES CBS 12864 8.3 13 7 Criminal Minds CBS 11809 7.5 11 8 60 Minutes CBS 11025 7.2 13 9 VOICE NBC 10518 6.2 9 10 Two and a Half Men CBS 10400 6.5 10 Source: 11 Modern Family ABC 10351 6.3 10 12 Hawaii Five-0 CBS 10304 6.6 11 TVByTheNumbers 13 Big Bang Theory,THE 9P-SP(S) SR CBS 10208 6.2 10 April 17, 2012 14 Good Wife, THE CBS 10161 6.6 10 15 Body Of Proof ABC 10045 6.7 11 16 CSI CBS 9944 6.3 10 17 SURVIVOR: ONE WORLD CBS 9906 6.0 10 18 Big Bang Theory, THE R CBS 9720 5.9 10 19 MIKE & Molly CBS 9578 5.9 9 20 Unforgettable CBS 9448 6.2 10 21 Amazing Race 20 CBS 9123 5.5 9 22 VOICE:RESULTS SHOW NBC 8999 5.5 8 23 NYC 22 P CBS 8859 5.7 9 24 GREYS ANATOMY ABC 8847 6.1 10 25 Person Of Interest 10P-SP(S) SR CBS 8580 5.5 9April 23, 2012 34

Cable Top 25 w/e April 15, 2012 Viewers Live+SD Rank Shows Net Day Time HH Rating (000) 1 Pawn Stars HIST MONDAY10:30 PM 5381 3.4 2 Pawn Stars HIST MONDAY10:00 PM 5210 3.3 THURSD 3 Swamp People HIST 9:00 PM 4958 2.8 AY SATURD 4 LEGEND OF KORRA NICK 11:00 AM 4548 2.7 AY SATURD 5 SpongeBob NICK 10:30 AM 4391 2.6 AY 6 WWE Entertainment (WWE Raw) USA MONDAY10:00 PM 4342 2.7 7 WWE Entertainment (WWE Raw) USA MONDAY9:00 PM 4230 2.7 SATURD 8 SpongeBob NICK 10:00 AM 3966 2.5 AY 9 American Pickers (BOYS TOYS) HIST MONDAY9:00 PM 3939 2.5 10 SpongeBob NICK SATURD AY 9:30 AM 3824 2.3 Source; GAME OF THRONES (13:WHAT IS DEAD 11 12 MAY NEVER DIE) NBA Basketball(MIAMI/CHICAGO) HBOM TNT SUNDAY 9:03 PM THURSD 8:16 PM 3766 3671 2.2 2.4 TVByTheNumbers AY 13 Shake It Up (WHODUNIT UP) DSNY SUNDAY WEDNES 8:30 PM 3669 2.2 April 17, 2012 14 NCIS USA 8:00 PM 3603 2.4 DAY 15 SpongeBob NICK SUNDAY 10:30 AM 3589 2.3 16 IN PLAIN SIGHT USA FRIDAY 10:00 PM 3588 2.5 17 SpongeBob NICK SUNDAY 10:00 AM 3502 2.2 WEDNES 18 NCIS USA 9:00 PM 3496 2.4 DAY 19 A.N.T. FARM DSNY FRIDAY 8:30 PM 3438 2.1 SATURD 20 SpongeBob NICK 9:00 AM 3399 2.1 AY AUSTIN & ALLY (BURGLARIES & 21 DSNY SUNDAY 8:00 PM 3281 1.9 BOOBYTRAPS) SATURD 22 VICTORIOUS NICK 8:00 PM 3237 1.9 AY THURSD 23 THE OREILLY FACTOR FOXNC 8:00 PM 3174 2.1 AY WEDNES 24 Family Guy ADSM 11:30 PM 3154 2.0 DAY REAL HOUSEWIVES ATLANTA(S) (421 25 BRVO SUNDAY 9:00 PM 3138 2.1 REUNION PART 1)April 23, 2012 35

Gross Rating Point Gross rating point (GRP) is a term used in advertising to measure the size of an audience reached by a specific media vehicle or schedule. It is the product of the percentage of the target audience reached by an advertisement, times the frequency they see it in a given campaign (frequency × % reached).[1] For example, a television advertisement that is aired 5 times reaching 50% of the target audience would have a GRP of 250 (5 × 50%).April 23, 2012 36

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Video Ads Destroy TV Ads in Effectiveness by Augustine Fou

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