Using Search toPredict 2012Presidential Election           Dr. Augustine Fou & John Real           http://www.linkedin.com...
UPDATE: Obama Wins-2-              Augustine Fou
2008 Presidential Election                Obama won-3-                         Augustine Fou
Choosing KeywordMost people are too lazy to type out the entire firstname + lastname-4-                                   ...
2008 vs 2012 Search           still very                              close      2008 Obama won   2012                    ...
Assumptions  • Relative search volume reflects intensity of    interest (the opposite – lack of interest = apathy =      l...
2012 Presidential Election                   Map of swing states                   as of Sunday,                   Novembe...
State-by-State AnalysisColorado-8-                   Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisFlorida-9-                   Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisIowa- 10 -                Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisNevada- 11 -                Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisNew Hampshire- 12 -                Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisNorth Carolina- 13 -                Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisOhio- 14 -                Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisVirginia- 15 -                Augustine Fou
State-by-State AnalysisWisconsin- 16 -                Augustine Fou
Search Intensity by State                Notice the states                with most intensity                that overlap-...
News Mentions Ratio         News search could also include         bad news items like Romney         getting caught for s...
Shame on Romney Camp         Staged Ryan Soup Kitchen Photo Op         October 19         GM/Chrysler rebut Romeny’s relea...
YouTube Views Ratio         We believe people will watch the         candidate they believe in, rather         than watch ...
2012 Yahoo Search Data- 21 -               Augustine Fou
Compete Site Traffic                  BarackObama.com                  has 4x the website                  traffic and pag...
Social Mention Sentiment         Barack Obama   Mitt Romney                               Source:                         ...
Thinking of Switching?- 24 -               Augustine Fou
Our 2012 Search Prediction           Obama wins- 25 -                  Augustine Fou
Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist“I advise clients in using searchvolume to get unique insights abouttheir cust...
John Real – Web 3.0 Innovator   John Real is a Digital Transformation and Performance   Analytics expert with significant ...
APPENDIX- 28 -     Augustine Fou
2012 HuffPo Prediction- 29 -                   Augustine Fou
2012 Actual Result- 30 -               Augustine Fou
Other Resources     https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/insights     https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/explorer- 3...
Palin lifted McCain 2008- 32 -                Augustine Fou
2008 Results Map         http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html- 33 -                               ...
Ryan Barely Lifted Romney- 34 -                Augustine Fou
Biden Gives Small Lift to ObamaOnly noticeable lift to Obama is after October 2012 debate         2008                    ...
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Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election

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Transcript of "Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election"

  1. 1. Using Search toPredict 2012Presidential Election Dr. Augustine Fou & John Real http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnreal November 4, 2012.
  2. 2. UPDATE: Obama Wins-2- Augustine Fou
  3. 3. 2008 Presidential Election Obama won-3- Augustine Fou
  4. 4. Choosing KeywordMost people are too lazy to type out the entire firstname + lastname-4- Augustine Fou
  5. 5. 2008 vs 2012 Search still very close 2008 Obama won 2012 election-5- Augustine Fou
  6. 6. Assumptions • Relative search volume reflects intensity of interest (the opposite – lack of interest = apathy = low turnout) • People are rational and vote rationally • Popular vote and electoral vote reflects rational votes more search volume = greater intensity of interest-6- Augustine Fou
  7. 7. 2012 Presidential Election Map of swing states as of Sunday, November 4, 2012. Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Virginia Wisconsin Source: Politico-7- Augustine Fou
  8. 8. State-by-State AnalysisColorado-8- Augustine Fou
  9. 9. State-by-State AnalysisFlorida-9- Augustine Fou
  10. 10. State-by-State AnalysisIowa- 10 - Augustine Fou
  11. 11. State-by-State AnalysisNevada- 11 - Augustine Fou
  12. 12. State-by-State AnalysisNew Hampshire- 12 - Augustine Fou
  13. 13. State-by-State AnalysisNorth Carolina- 13 - Augustine Fou
  14. 14. State-by-State AnalysisOhio- 14 - Augustine Fou
  15. 15. State-by-State AnalysisVirginia- 15 - Augustine Fou
  16. 16. State-by-State AnalysisWisconsin- 16 - Augustine Fou
  17. 17. Search Intensity by State Notice the states with most intensity that overlap- 17 - Augustine Fou
  18. 18. News Mentions Ratio News search could also include bad news items like Romney getting caught for staging Hurricane Sandy Relief photo op.- 18 - Augustine Fou
  19. 19. Shame on Romney Camp Staged Ryan Soup Kitchen Photo Op October 19 GM/Chrysler rebut Romeny’s release of misleading information – LATimes, October 30 Staged Romney Sandy Hurricane Relief November 1- 19 - Augustine Fou
  20. 20. YouTube Views Ratio We believe people will watch the candidate they believe in, rather than watch people you don’t like.- 20 - Augustine Fou
  21. 21. 2012 Yahoo Search Data- 21 - Augustine Fou
  22. 22. Compete Site Traffic BarackObama.com has 4x the website traffic and pageviews compared to MittRomney.com Source: Compete.com Sept 2012 Data- 22 - Augustine Fou
  23. 23. Social Mention Sentiment Barack Obama Mitt Romney Source: SocialMention- 23 - Augustine Fou
  24. 24. Thinking of Switching?- 24 - Augustine Fou
  25. 25. Our 2012 Search Prediction Obama wins- 25 - Augustine Fou
  26. 26. Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist“I advise clients in using searchvolume to get unique insights abouttheir customers – to informmarketing and even innovation.”FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)MCKINSEY CONSULTANTCLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCEPROFESSOR AND COLUMNISTENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNERPHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT 95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://www.clickz.com/author/1151/augustine-fou Slideshares: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefouNovember 4, 2012 26 acfou@mktsci.com
  27. 27. John Real – Web 3.0 Innovator John Real is a Digital Transformation and Performance Analytics expert with significant experience helping Fortune 500 and start-up clients: map paths to growth, harness innovation and digital transformation, bring new products / services / ventures to market and commercialize new technologies. He is also an independent global consulting partner with OgilvyRed: the strategy & innovation center for excellence of Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide and was most recently executive director, CRM Platforms & Innovation of OgilvyOne (the digital arm of Ogilvy.) He began career in advertising followed by almost a decade with the Interactive Multimedia and Digital Marketing practices of McKinsey & Company and is a graduate of Columbia University. http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnrealNovember 4, 2012 27
  28. 28. APPENDIX- 28 - Augustine Fou
  29. 29. 2012 HuffPo Prediction- 29 - Augustine Fou
  30. 30. 2012 Actual Result- 30 - Augustine Fou
  31. 31. Other Resources https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/insights https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/explorer- 31 - Augustine Fou
  32. 32. Palin lifted McCain 2008- 32 - Augustine Fou
  33. 33. 2008 Results Map http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html- 33 - Augustine Fou
  34. 34. Ryan Barely Lifted Romney- 34 - Augustine Fou
  35. 35. Biden Gives Small Lift to ObamaOnly noticeable lift to Obama is after October 2012 debate 2008 2012- 35 - Augustine Fou

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