Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election

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  • 1. Using Search toPredict 2012Presidential Election Dr. Augustine Fou & John Real http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnreal November 4, 2012.
  • 2. UPDATE: Obama Wins-2- Augustine Fou
  • 3. 2008 Presidential Election Obama won-3- Augustine Fou
  • 4. Choosing KeywordMost people are too lazy to type out the entire firstname + lastname-4- Augustine Fou
  • 5. 2008 vs 2012 Search still very close 2008 Obama won 2012 election-5- Augustine Fou
  • 6. Assumptions • Relative search volume reflects intensity of interest (the opposite – lack of interest = apathy = low turnout) • People are rational and vote rationally • Popular vote and electoral vote reflects rational votes more search volume = greater intensity of interest-6- Augustine Fou
  • 7. 2012 Presidential Election Map of swing states as of Sunday, November 4, 2012. Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Virginia Wisconsin Source: Politico-7- Augustine Fou
  • 8. State-by-State AnalysisColorado-8- Augustine Fou
  • 9. State-by-State AnalysisFlorida-9- Augustine Fou
  • 10. State-by-State AnalysisIowa- 10 - Augustine Fou
  • 11. State-by-State AnalysisNevada- 11 - Augustine Fou
  • 12. State-by-State AnalysisNew Hampshire- 12 - Augustine Fou
  • 13. State-by-State AnalysisNorth Carolina- 13 - Augustine Fou
  • 14. State-by-State AnalysisOhio- 14 - Augustine Fou
  • 15. State-by-State AnalysisVirginia- 15 - Augustine Fou
  • 16. State-by-State AnalysisWisconsin- 16 - Augustine Fou
  • 17. Search Intensity by State Notice the states with most intensity that overlap- 17 - Augustine Fou
  • 18. News Mentions Ratio News search could also include bad news items like Romney getting caught for staging Hurricane Sandy Relief photo op.- 18 - Augustine Fou
  • 19. Shame on Romney Camp Staged Ryan Soup Kitchen Photo Op October 19 GM/Chrysler rebut Romeny’s release of misleading information – LATimes, October 30 Staged Romney Sandy Hurricane Relief November 1- 19 - Augustine Fou
  • 20. YouTube Views Ratio We believe people will watch the candidate they believe in, rather than watch people you don’t like.- 20 - Augustine Fou
  • 21. 2012 Yahoo Search Data- 21 - Augustine Fou
  • 22. Compete Site Traffic BarackObama.com has 4x the website traffic and pageviews compared to MittRomney.com Source: Compete.com Sept 2012 Data- 22 - Augustine Fou
  • 23. Social Mention Sentiment Barack Obama Mitt Romney Source: SocialMention- 23 - Augustine Fou
  • 24. Thinking of Switching?- 24 - Augustine Fou
  • 25. Our 2012 Search Prediction Obama wins- 25 - Augustine Fou
  • 26. Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist“I advise clients in using searchvolume to get unique insights abouttheir customers – to informmarketing and even innovation.”FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)MCKINSEY CONSULTANTCLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCEPROFESSOR AND COLUMNISTENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNERPHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT 95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://www.clickz.com/author/1151/augustine-fou Slideshares: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefouNovember 4, 2012 26 acfou@mktsci.com
  • 27. John Real – Web 3.0 Innovator John Real is a Digital Transformation and Performance Analytics expert with significant experience helping Fortune 500 and start-up clients: map paths to growth, harness innovation and digital transformation, bring new products / services / ventures to market and commercialize new technologies. He is also an independent global consulting partner with OgilvyRed: the strategy & innovation center for excellence of Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide and was most recently executive director, CRM Platforms & Innovation of OgilvyOne (the digital arm of Ogilvy.) He began career in advertising followed by almost a decade with the Interactive Multimedia and Digital Marketing practices of McKinsey & Company and is a graduate of Columbia University. http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnrealNovember 4, 2012 27
  • 28. APPENDIX- 28 - Augustine Fou
  • 29. 2012 HuffPo Prediction- 29 - Augustine Fou
  • 30. 2012 Actual Result- 30 - Augustine Fou
  • 31. Other Resources https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/insights https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/explorer- 31 - Augustine Fou
  • 32. Palin lifted McCain 2008- 32 - Augustine Fou
  • 33. 2008 Results Map http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html- 33 - Augustine Fou
  • 34. Ryan Barely Lifted Romney- 34 - Augustine Fou
  • 35. Biden Gives Small Lift to ObamaOnly noticeable lift to Obama is after October 2012 debate 2008 2012- 35 - Augustine Fou