Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Using Search to Predict 2012 Obama Romney Election

242,305

Published on

Published in: Business
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
242,305
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Using Search toPredict 2012Presidential Election Dr. Augustine Fou & John Real http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefou http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnreal November 4, 2012.
  • 2. UPDATE: Obama Wins-2- Augustine Fou
  • 3. 2008 Presidential Election Obama won-3- Augustine Fou
  • 4. Choosing KeywordMost people are too lazy to type out the entire firstname + lastname-4- Augustine Fou
  • 5. 2008 vs 2012 Search still very close 2008 Obama won 2012 election-5- Augustine Fou
  • 6. Assumptions • Relative search volume reflects intensity of interest (the opposite – lack of interest = apathy = low turnout) • People are rational and vote rationally • Popular vote and electoral vote reflects rational votes more search volume = greater intensity of interest-6- Augustine Fou
  • 7. 2012 Presidential Election Map of swing states as of Sunday, November 4, 2012. Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Virginia Wisconsin Source: Politico-7- Augustine Fou
  • 8. State-by-State AnalysisColorado-8- Augustine Fou
  • 9. State-by-State AnalysisFlorida-9- Augustine Fou
  • 10. State-by-State AnalysisIowa- 10 - Augustine Fou
  • 11. State-by-State AnalysisNevada- 11 - Augustine Fou
  • 12. State-by-State AnalysisNew Hampshire- 12 - Augustine Fou
  • 13. State-by-State AnalysisNorth Carolina- 13 - Augustine Fou
  • 14. State-by-State AnalysisOhio- 14 - Augustine Fou
  • 15. State-by-State AnalysisVirginia- 15 - Augustine Fou
  • 16. State-by-State AnalysisWisconsin- 16 - Augustine Fou
  • 17. Search Intensity by State Notice the states with most intensity that overlap- 17 - Augustine Fou
  • 18. News Mentions Ratio News search could also include bad news items like Romney getting caught for staging Hurricane Sandy Relief photo op.- 18 - Augustine Fou
  • 19. Shame on Romney Camp Staged Ryan Soup Kitchen Photo Op October 19 GM/Chrysler rebut Romeny’s release of misleading information – LATimes, October 30 Staged Romney Sandy Hurricane Relief November 1- 19 - Augustine Fou
  • 20. YouTube Views Ratio We believe people will watch the candidate they believe in, rather than watch people you don’t like.- 20 - Augustine Fou
  • 21. 2012 Yahoo Search Data- 21 - Augustine Fou
  • 22. Compete Site Traffic BarackObama.com has 4x the website traffic and pageviews compared to MittRomney.com Source: Compete.com Sept 2012 Data- 22 - Augustine Fou
  • 23. Social Mention Sentiment Barack Obama Mitt Romney Source: SocialMention- 23 - Augustine Fou
  • 24. Thinking of Switching?- 24 - Augustine Fou
  • 25. Our 2012 Search Prediction Obama wins- 25 - Augustine Fou
  • 26. Dr. Augustine Fou – Chief Digital Strategist“I advise clients in using searchvolume to get unique insights abouttheir customers – to informmarketing and even innovation.”FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)MCKINSEY CONSULTANTCLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCEPROFESSOR AND COLUMNISTENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNERPHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT 95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://www.clickz.com/author/1151/augustine-fou Slideshares: http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/augustinefouNovember 4, 2012 26 acfou@mktsci.com
  • 27. John Real – Web 3.0 Innovator John Real is a Digital Transformation and Performance Analytics expert with significant experience helping Fortune 500 and start-up clients: map paths to growth, harness innovation and digital transformation, bring new products / services / ventures to market and commercialize new technologies. He is also an independent global consulting partner with OgilvyRed: the strategy & innovation center for excellence of Ogilvy & Mather Worldwide and was most recently executive director, CRM Platforms & Innovation of OgilvyOne (the digital arm of Ogilvy.) He began career in advertising followed by almost a decade with the Interactive Multimedia and Digital Marketing practices of McKinsey & Company and is a graduate of Columbia University. http://www.linkedin.com/in/johnrealNovember 4, 2012 27
  • 28. APPENDIX- 28 - Augustine Fou
  • 29. 2012 HuffPo Prediction- 29 - Augustine Fou
  • 30. 2012 Actual Result- 30 - Augustine Fou
  • 31. Other Resources https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/insights https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/explorer- 31 - Augustine Fou
  • 32. Palin lifted McCain 2008- 32 - Augustine Fou
  • 33. 2008 Results Map http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html- 33 - Augustine Fou
  • 34. Ryan Barely Lifted Romney- 34 - Augustine Fou
  • 35. Biden Gives Small Lift to ObamaOnly noticeable lift to Obama is after October 2012 debate 2008 2012- 35 - Augustine Fou

×