How Video Fraud
Works (ads, views)
Dr. Augustine Fou
http://linkd.in/augustinefou
February 2014
-1-

Augustine Fou
Motive
(of the bad guys)
-2-

Augustine Fou
Partner Channels

Source: comScore July 17, 2013
-3-

Augustine Fou
Ad Revenue Share
YouTube Ends The 'Sweetheart Deals'
Enjoyed By TV And Film Studios
YouTube restructured the terms in part...
Display and Video Ads

-5-

Augustine Fou
Video Ads Are Lucrative
Video ad CPMs
are $8 - $12,
which means
they are more
than 10X more
lucrative than
display or
mobi...
Budget Allocation to Video

Source: AdoTube via MarketingCharts March 2013
-7-

Augustine Fou
Video Ad Budgets from ...
An October 2013 survey
from Adap.tv and33% New budget and
Digiday polled digital
marketing profe...
Online Video
Ad Stats
-9-

Augustine Fou
UPDATE: Jan 2014
Dec 2013 35.2B
video ads per month

Source: comScore, Jan 2014 via MarketingCharts
- 10 -

Augustine Fou
UPDATE: Dec 2013
Nov 2013 reach = 56% frequency = 155 ads /mo

Source: comScore, dec 2013 via MarketingCharts
- 11 -

Augu...
Digital Video Ad Spend
Source: eMarketer, March 2013

Digital video ad
spend continues to
rise rapidly as more
TV ad dolla...
Video Minutes and Ads

Viewers watched 1,250
minutes of online video in
May 2013 (20.8 hours/mo or
42 mins per day)

Video...
Video Ad Formats (length)

Source: tnooz.com Feb 2013
- 14 -

Augustine Fou
Video Ads CPMs
Video ad CPMs
are $8 - $12,
which means
they are more
than 10X more
lucrative than
display or
mobile ads.
S...
Video Ad Fraud
- 16 -

Augustine Fou
Documented Fraud
REPORT: AOL's $400 Million Video Ad Business
Has Tons Of Bogus Inventory – By: Jim Edwards
Read more: htt...
Video Ad Impressions

50 - 77%
fraudulent, autoplay, wasted, not-in-view
Source: Vindico via Adweek, December 15, 2013
eMa...
Where Fake Impressions Come From
Ad exchanges are particularly prone to fraud because shady sites sell enormous
quantities...
Video Ad Viewability
A new study [download page] from
VideoHub indicates that during the first
quarter, average viewabilit...
Video Ad Views Fraud
35 billion
video ad impressions /mo

40%

Source: Vindico, 2013

estimated fake views

~$8 - $12
cost...
Fake YouTube
Videos for SEO
- 22 -

Augustine Fou
Google Search
―selena gomez nude‖
22.3M results
• 4 of 10 page 1 results are
YouTube videos
• exact duplicate video,
diffe...
All Videos Go To Same Site

http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=upSOCzlSoHk

http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=lhbDGpqCmZQ

http...
Google Search
―natalie portman nude‖
10.6M results
• 4 of 10 page 1 results are
YouTube videos
• exact duplicate video,
di...
Google Search
―ariana grande nude‖
3.3M results
• 5 of 10 page 1 results are
YouTube videos
• exact duplicate video,
diffe...
What Legit Viral Video
Traffic Curve Looks Like

- 27 -

Augustine Fou
Improv Everywhere

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwMj3PJDxuo

In the cumulative chart, the initial rise is large and then...
Space Jump

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f-K-XnHi9I

The cumulative chart shows asymptotic rise and the daily chart sho...
Old Spice Guy

Views supported by TV ads

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owGykVbfgUE

Increases in views correspond to
sup...
What Purchased Video
Views Looks Like
- 31 -

Augustine Fou
Bruno Mars – Treasure
straight line

propped up baseline

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPvuNsRccVw

In the cumulative ch...
Macklemore – Same Love

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlVBg7_08n0

When they started buying traffic
- 33 -

Augustine Fou
What Advertisers
Can/Should Do
- 34 -

Augustine Fou
Areas of Optimization
30%

40%
30%
- 35 -

targeting

improving
optimization

delivery
viewability
bots /not seen by human...
Low Hanging Fruit
The most immediate, direct impact on ROI comes from reducing waste

25% On-Target Delivery
(Nielsen)

54...
Digital Ad Forensics Process
Preliminary Scan
Sizing of
ad fraud

Forensic Analysis

Maintenance

• Technology Tools
• Sta...
Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere
“I advise clients on optimizing
advertising across all channels. One
main area of ...
Related Articles
Digital Ad Fraud Briefing
By: Augustine Fou December 2013

Fake Linkedin Profiles
By: Augustine Fou, Dece...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

How Video Fraud Works Ads Views Investigation by Augustine Fou

8,748

Published on

YouTube video views and ad impressions can be faked -- and so they are by bad guys looking to make money from the huge surge in video ad budgets.

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
8,748
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "How Video Fraud Works Ads Views Investigation by Augustine Fou"

  1. 1. How Video Fraud Works (ads, views) Dr. Augustine Fou http://linkd.in/augustinefou February 2014 -1- Augustine Fou
  2. 2. Motive (of the bad guys) -2- Augustine Fou
  3. 3. Partner Channels Source: comScore July 17, 2013 -3- Augustine Fou
  4. 4. Ad Revenue Share YouTube Ends The 'Sweetheart Deals' Enjoyed By TV And Film Studios YouTube restructured the terms in partnerships it has with TV networks and major film studios. The new terms put an end to "sweetheart deals," wherein TV and film producers would keep up to 70% of ad revenues — now their share has been reduced to 55%. YouTube says it hopes to have all its partnerships, which includes CBS and Warner Bros., transitioned to the new revenue split by January 2014. Source: BusinessInsider November 4, 2013 -4- Augustine Fou
  5. 5. Display and Video Ads -5- Augustine Fou
  6. 6. Video Ads Are Lucrative Video ad CPMs are $8 - $12, which means they are more than 10X more lucrative than display or mobile ads. Source: Turn, Inc. October 2013 -6- Augustine Fou
  7. 7. Budget Allocation to Video Source: AdoTube via MarketingCharts March 2013 -7- Augustine Fou
  8. 8. Video Ad Budgets from ... An October 2013 survey from Adap.tv and33% New budget and Digiday polled digital marketing professionalsFrom a bead on the 31% to get Broadcast TV Where are video ad budgets coming from?video 30% FromThey found that print, and display ad budgets state of the TV, ad industry. display ad budgets online advertising budgets were most often growing at the expense of TV broadcast budgets, according to brands. In fact, 31% of brands that responded were planning to shift their advertising budgets away from broadcast television and into online video, while 30% planned to take money away from display advertising for online video. Source: Adap.tv and Digiday via MarketingCharts October 2013 -8- Augustine Fou
  9. 9. Online Video Ad Stats -9- Augustine Fou
  10. 10. UPDATE: Jan 2014 Dec 2013 35.2B video ads per month Source: comScore, Jan 2014 via MarketingCharts - 10 - Augustine Fou
  11. 11. UPDATE: Dec 2013 Nov 2013 reach = 56% frequency = 155 ads /mo Source: comScore, dec 2013 via MarketingCharts - 11 - Augustine Fou
  12. 12. Digital Video Ad Spend Source: eMarketer, March 2013 Digital video ad spend continues to rise rapidly as more TV ad dollars shift to digital. Because video CPMs are so much more lucrative, it is more lucrative for bad guys too. - 12 - Augustine Fou
  13. 13. Video Minutes and Ads Viewers watched 1,250 minutes of online video in May 2013 (20.8 hours/mo or 42 mins per day) Video ads accounted for 27.9 percent of all videos viewed and 2.6% of all minutes spent viewing video online Source: comScore June 2013 - 13 - Augustine Fou
  14. 14. Video Ad Formats (length) Source: tnooz.com Feb 2013 - 14 - Augustine Fou
  15. 15. Video Ads CPMs Video ad CPMs are $8 - $12, which means they are more than 10X more lucrative than display or mobile ads. Source: Turn, Inc. October 2013 - 15 - Augustine Fou
  16. 16. Video Ad Fraud - 16 - Augustine Fou
  17. 17. Documented Fraud REPORT: AOL's $400 Million Video Ad Business Has Tons Of Bogus Inventory – By: Jim Edwards Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/aol-adaptv-deal-comeswith-bogus-ad-inventory-adweek-says-2013-8#ixzz2sawEgWzD Leaked Document Shows How Big Brands' Video Ad Budgets Get Spent On Asian Porn Sites – By: Jim Edwards Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/telemetry-document-adbudgets-asian-porn-2013-12#ixzz2sawbKAL4 - 17 - Augustine Fou
  18. 18. Video Ad Impressions 50 - 77% fraudulent, autoplay, wasted, not-in-view Source: Vindico via Adweek, December 15, 2013 eMarketer: Digital Video Ad Spend est. $4B in 2013 • Advanced bots are programmed to load video ads and wait till they are counted as ―views‖ before leaving the page • Video ads have 10x the CPM compared with display ads, and are therefore a prime target for ‗bad guys‘ - 18 - Augustine Fou
  19. 19. Where Fake Impressions Come From Ad exchanges are particularly prone to fraud because shady sites sell enormous quantities ―ad impression inventory‖ into the exchanges for re-sale. Source: Integral Ad Science, via BusinessWeek Nov 26, 2013 - 19 - Augustine Fou
  20. 20. Video Ad Viewability A new study [download page] from VideoHub indicates that during the first quarter, average viewability for online video ads in the US was 83%, although rates varied widely among properties, from 43% on the low end to 94% on the high end. Broadcast TV sites fared best (89% on average) among property categories, with networks and exchanges (73%) bringing up the rear. Source: VideoHub August 2013 via MarketingCharts - 20 - Augustine Fou
  21. 21. Video Ad Views Fraud 35 billion video ad impressions /mo 40% Source: Vindico, 2013 estimated fake views ~$8 - $12 cost per thousand $1-2 billion wasted ad spend (annualized) - 21 - Augustine Fou
  22. 22. Fake YouTube Videos for SEO - 22 - Augustine Fou
  23. 23. Google Search ―selena gomez nude‖ 22.3M results • 4 of 10 page 1 results are YouTube videos • exact duplicate video, different keywords on page • click through to same porn site - 23 - Augustine Fou
  24. 24. All Videos Go To Same Site http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=upSOCzlSoHk http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=lhbDGpqCmZQ http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=UcdiM4uD6fM http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=an6xRpQ5Wh8 - 24 - Augustine Fou
  25. 25. Google Search ―natalie portman nude‖ 10.6M results • 4 of 10 page 1 results are YouTube videos • exact duplicate video, different keywords on page • click through to same porn site - 25 - Augustine Fou
  26. 26. Google Search ―ariana grande nude‖ 3.3M results • 5 of 10 page 1 results are YouTube videos • exact duplicate video, different keywords on page • click through to same porn site - 26 - Augustine Fou
  27. 27. What Legit Viral Video Traffic Curve Looks Like - 27 - Augustine Fou
  28. 28. Improv Everywhere http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwMj3PJDxuo In the cumulative chart, the initial rise is large and then it flattens out. In the daily chart, after an initial, large spike the long tail remains low. - 28 - Augustine Fou
  29. 29. Space Jump http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f-K-XnHi9I The cumulative chart shows asymptotic rise and the daily chart shows asymptotic drop to near baseline. NOTE: the official RedBull video has statistics turned off so this one was used instead. - 29 - Augustine Fou
  30. 30. Old Spice Guy Views supported by TV ads http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owGykVbfgUE Increases in views correspond to support by TV ads; search volume at those exact times also corroborate. - 30 - Search volume for ―old spice guy‖ Augustine Fou
  31. 31. What Purchased Video Views Looks Like - 31 - Augustine Fou
  32. 32. Bruno Mars – Treasure straight line propped up baseline http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPvuNsRccVw In the cumulative chart, views are perfectly straight line (consistent with a set amount of purchased views over time). In the daily chart, the traffic remains ―propped up‖ and shows regular spikes; this is inconsistent with naturally occurring PR or word of mouth generated views. - 32 - Augustine Fou
  33. 33. Macklemore – Same Love http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlVBg7_08n0 When they started buying traffic - 33 - Augustine Fou
  34. 34. What Advertisers Can/Should Do - 34 - Augustine Fou
  35. 35. Areas of Optimization 30% 40% 30% - 35 - targeting improving optimization delivery viewability bots /not seen by humans waste reduction Augustine Fou
  36. 36. Low Hanging Fruit The most immediate, direct impact on ROI comes from reducing waste 25% On-Target Delivery (Nielsen) 54% Not In View (comScore) 23% Ad Blocked (PageFair) 24 – 29% confirmed bot (Solve Media) - 36 - Augustine Fou
  37. 37. Digital Ad Forensics Process Preliminary Scan Sizing of ad fraud Forensic Analysis Maintenance • Technology Tools • Statistical analysis • Budget shifts • Further optimization Implementation FREE $$$ Preliminary analysis of paid campaigns and analytics to determine magnitude of the ad fraud impacting client. Creating recommended list of changes, including list of sites to exclude in each ad channel. - 37 - $ Subscribe to triangulated, cross-industry database of ―ad fraud offenders‖ to continuously update blacklists and whitelists. Augustine Fou
  38. 38. Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere “I advise clients on optimizing advertising across all channels. One main area of focus is reducing ad waste due to fraud – fake impressions, clicks, leads, and sales.” FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares LinkedIn: http://linkd.in/augustinefou - 38 - @acfou Augustine Fou
  39. 39. Related Articles Digital Ad Fraud Briefing By: Augustine Fou December 2013 Fake Linkedin Profiles By: Augustine Fou, December 2013 Ad Fraud Fighting Techniques By: Augustine Fou October 2013 Fake Facebook Profiles By: Augustine Fou, Dec 2013 How Display Fraud Works By: Augustine Fou, May 2013 Fake Twitter Accounts By: Augustine Fou, August 2013 How Click Fraud Works By: Augustine Fou, November 2013 An Ecosystem of Digital Ad Fraud By: Augustine Fou, October 2013 The Magnitude of Digital Ad Fraud By: Augustine Fou, November 2013 - 39 - Augustine Fou

×