SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / Trends
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
”Not everything
that counts can be
counted, and not
everything that
c...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / Trends
Big Data
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
4.0 Zettabytes
2010 2011 2012
Gigabytes of Data
Terabytes of Data
Pet...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
2,513 Yearsfor
XX
Information / DATA
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
33 Times
back and forth
to the moon
Information / DATA
Wednesday, Aug...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
HISTORY to 2003
5 Exabytes
Information / DATA
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
HISTORY to 2003
5 Exabytes
Information / DATA
EVERY School DAY
4.2EXA...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
HISTORY to 2003
5 Exabytes
Information / DATA
EVERY School DAY
4.2EXA...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Not Useful Useful Tagged
Source: International Data Corporation (IDC)...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
74% 23%
Information / DATA
Short Term:
HAMR (Heat Assisted Magnetic
R...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / Trends
Big Data
Access
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / ACCESS
"For every person
online, there are
two who are ...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / ACCESS
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
GOO...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / ACCESS
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
UN/...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
• Almost impossible to get to Google’s vision
• What role does energy...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / Trends
Big Data
Access
Security
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
per
per
Information / SECURITY
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
W32.Disttrack
Erase Hard Drives
(Randomly)
Gathered User
Credentials
...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Future of
Anononimity?
Information / SECURITY
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / Trends
Big Data
Access
Security
Knowledge
Wednesday, Au...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
we process MORE information in
ONE DAY then someone in the
1500s did ...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / KNOWLEDGE
are we smarter?
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / KNOWLEDGE
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Innovation
Big Data
Access
Security
Information / Trends
Knowledge
We...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / INNOVATION
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
50 billion
by 2020
Internet of Things . . .
Information / INNOVATION
...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / INNOVATION
So What?
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
–Artificial Intelligence 4x Moore’s Law
Wed...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
–Artificial Intelligence 4x Moore’s Law
–IB...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
–Artificial Intelligence 4x Moore’s Law
–IB...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
So What?
Friona fell 10-8 to Boys Ranch in ...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
So What?
Friona fell 10-8 to Boys Ranch in ...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
So What?
Wednesday, August 7, 13
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
So What?
-Google Glasses & Situational Awar...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
So What?
-Google Glasses & Situational Awar...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
So What?
-Google Glasses & Situational Awar...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
|Information / INNOVATION
So What?
-Google Glasses & Situational Awar...
SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS
EXAMPlE • May 2013
Information / Trends
http://7revs.org
SAughenbaugh@csis.org
@SAUGHENB...
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Seven Revolutions: Information

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This is a sample presentation given in May of 2013 on the Future of Information. Some of the content is contained within a larger future trends presentation called Seven Revolutions (7revs.org).

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Seven Revolutions: Information

  1. 1. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / Trends Wednesday, August 7, 13
  2. 2. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 ”Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” Information / Trends Wednesday, August 7, 13
  3. 3. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / Trends Big Data Wednesday, August 7, 13
  4. 4. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 4.0 Zettabytes 2010 2011 2012 Gigabytes of Data Terabytes of Data Petabytes of Data Exabytes of Data 2013 1.2 1.8 2.8 Information / DATA Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), 2012 Wednesday, August 7, 13
  5. 5. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 2,513 Yearsfor XX Information / DATA Wednesday, August 7, 13
  6. 6. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 33 Times back and forth to the moon Information / DATA Wednesday, August 7, 13
  7. 7. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 HISTORY to 2003 5 Exabytes Information / DATA Wednesday, August 7, 13
  8. 8. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 HISTORY to 2003 5 Exabytes Information / DATA EVERY School DAY 4.2EXAbytes Wednesday, August 7, 13
  9. 9. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 HISTORY to 2003 5 Exabytes Information / DATA EVERY School DAY 4.2EXAbytes 54minutes IN 2020 We create 5 exabytes every Wednesday, August 7, 13
  10. 10. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Not Useful Useful Tagged Source: International Data Corporation (IDC), 2012 74% 23% Information / DATA 3% In 2012 Wednesday, August 7, 13
  11. 11. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 74% 23% Information / DATA Short Term: HAMR (Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording) 60 TB per Desktop hd, 20 per laptop MEDIUM Term: Five-dimensional glass memory (360 TB per disk) Long Term: protein/dna/resistive ram/phase change memory Technologies to fix THE storage gap: Wednesday, August 7, 13
  12. 12. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / Trends Big Data Access Wednesday, August 7, 13
  13. 13. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / ACCESS "For every person online, there are two who are not [....] By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected." Wednesday, August 7, 13
  14. 14. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / ACCESS 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 GOOGLE MODEL 2020 Wednesday, August 7, 13
  15. 15. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / ACCESS 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 UN/ITU MODEL 2029 AGE ASSUMPTION MODEL 2027 GOOGLE MODEL 2020 2.5B Wednesday, August 7, 13
  16. 16. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 • Almost impossible to get to Google’s vision • What role does energy poverty play in this future? • Do we need to connect more households? Example: In India only 3% population has home internet access. Yet 12% of the population is online. Information / ACCESS Wednesday, August 7, 13
  17. 17. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / Trends Big Data Access Security Wednesday, August 7, 13
  18. 18. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 per per Information / SECURITY Wednesday, August 7, 13
  19. 19. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 W32.Disttrack Erase Hard Drives (Randomly) Gathered User Credentials Targeted Energy Companies (nicknamed, “Shamoon”) Information / SECURITY Wednesday, August 7, 13
  20. 20. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Future of Anononimity? Information / SECURITY Wednesday, August 7, 13
  21. 21. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / Trends Big Data Access Security Knowledge Wednesday, August 7, 13
  22. 22. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 we process MORE information in ONE DAY then someone in the 1500s did in their LIFETIME Information / KNOWLEDGE Wednesday, August 7, 13
  23. 23. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / KNOWLEDGE are we smarter? Wednesday, August 7, 13
  24. 24. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / KNOWLEDGE Wednesday, August 7, 13
  25. 25. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Innovation Big Data Access Security Information / Trends Knowledge Wednesday, August 7, 13
  26. 26. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / INNOVATION Wednesday, August 7, 13
  27. 27. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 50 billion by 2020 Internet of Things . . . Information / INNOVATION Wednesday, August 7, 13
  28. 28. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / INNOVATION So What? Wednesday, August 7, 13
  29. 29. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION Wednesday, August 7, 13
  30. 30. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION Wednesday, August 7, 13
  31. 31. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION –Artificial Intelligence 4x Moore’s Law Wednesday, August 7, 13
  32. 32. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION –Artificial Intelligence 4x Moore’s Law –IBM Watson (Refrigerator, Pizza Box) Wednesday, August 7, 13
  33. 33. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION –Artificial Intelligence 4x Moore’s Law –IBM Watson (Refrigerator, Pizza Box) “The Cloud” Wednesday, August 7, 13
  34. 34. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION So What? Friona fell 10-8 to Boys Ranch in five innings on Monday at Friona despite racking up seven hits and eight runs. Friona was led by a flawless day at the dish by Hunter Sundre, who went 2-2 against Boys Ranch pitching. Sundre singled in the third inning and tripled in the fourth inning … Friona piled up the steals, swiping eight bags in all … Source: NARRATIVE SCIENCE Wednesday, August 7, 13
  35. 35. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION So What? Friona fell 10-8 to Boys Ranch in five innings on Monday at Friona despite racking up seven hits and eight runs. Friona was led by a flawless day at the dish by Hunter Sundre, who went 2-2 against Boys Ranch pitching. Sundre singled in the third inning and tripled in the fourth inning … Friona piled up the steals, swiping eight bags in all … Computer created! Source: NARRATIVE SCIENCE Wednesday, August 7, 13
  36. 36. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION So What? Wednesday, August 7, 13
  37. 37. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION So What? -Google Glasses & Situational Awareness Wednesday, August 7, 13
  38. 38. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION So What? -Google Glasses & Situational Awareness -Biometrics Wednesday, August 7, 13
  39. 39. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION So What? -Google Glasses & Situational Awareness -Biometrics -Predictive Analytics (modeling, machine learning, ex. Kaggle) Wednesday, August 7, 13
  40. 40. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 |Information / INNOVATION So What? -Google Glasses & Situational Awareness -Biometrics -Predictive Analytics (modeling, machine learning, ex. Kaggle) -MapLarge and Minority Report Wednesday, August 7, 13
  41. 41. SCOTT AUGHENBAUGH • FELLOW • CSIS EXAMPlE • May 2013 Information / Trends http://7revs.org SAughenbaugh@csis.org @SAUGHENBAUGH Wednesday, August 7, 13

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