0
SJVWA
Annual Meeting & Industry
Forum
Nat DiBuduo
Allied Grape Growers
December 5, 2013
Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All ri...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions…….

Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#1: Just how big was this crop?
•Related Questions:
Are we in supply/demand ...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Just how big was this crop?

Production Analysis
A regional look at production
State...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Just how big was this crop?

California Production

Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All ...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#1: Just how big was this crop?
•Related Questions:
Are we in supply/demand ...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we in supply/demand balance going forward?
California Wine Shipments 2005-2012,
...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we in supply/demand balance going forward?
Crop
Year

Winegrape
Tons Crushed
or ...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we in supply/demand balance going forward?
California Wine Shipments 2005-2012,
...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we in supply/demand balance going forward?
California Wine Shipments 2005-2012,
...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#1: Just how big was this crop?
•Related Questions:
Are we in supply/demand ...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Exchange Rates (Value to $1 U.S.), January...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk
(In Milli...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Millions
of Tons

California Grapes Crushe...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk
(In Milli...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Millions
of Tons

California Grapes Crushe...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk
(In Milli...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Millions
of Tons

California Grapes Crushe...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will our domestic supply depress imports?
Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk
(In Milli...
The Answers:
Question#1: Just how big was this crop?
BIG….. About 10% above recent history
•Related Questions:
Are we in s...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#2: What are current planting trends?
•Related Questions:
What varieties are...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Each January, Allied Grape Growers conducts a confidential &
voluntary survey of Cal...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#2: What are current planting trends?
•Related Questions:
What varieties are...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
What varieties are hot?

Annual Vine Sales Leaders, Based on AGG Nursery Surveys:
•2...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions

39%
White

What varieties are hot?
2012 Winegrape Vines Sold by California Nurserie...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#2: What are current planting trends?
•Related Questions:
What varieties are...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
What areas are being planted?

Categorical Allocation of Vines
Sold by California Nu...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
What areas are being planted?
Regional Allocation of Major Winegrape Vines Sold, 201...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#2: What are current planting trends?
•Related Questions:
What varieties are...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Are we over-planting?

Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres
From 1990 with p...
The Answers:
Question#2: What are current planting trends?
Cab in the coast and slowing in the interior
•Related Questions...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#3: What does the future hold?
•Related Questions:
Will California winegrape...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
What does the future hold?

Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
What does the future hold?

Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#3: What does the future hold?
•Related Questions:
Will California winegrape...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will California winegrape prices be stable?

Three major factors
driving price (dema...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#3: What does the future hold?
•Related Questions:
Will California winegrape...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
What happened to Thompsons?!?!

Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
What happened to Thompsons?!?!

Major factors driving Thompson price

#4: Winery use...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Question#3: What does the future hold?
•Related Questions:
Will California winegrape...
Answering Some Key Industry Questions
Will today’s higher grape prices slow sales?

Every $100 in grape value = $.12 in th...
The Answers:
Question#3: What does the future hold?
No immediate shortage of wine
Related Questions:
Will California wineg...
Closing Thoughts
• Global market is ever-changing in quality/quantity
-Need for California research and outreach
• State o...
Quality, proper planning and
economic sustainability will
keep our industry strong and
successful into the future.

Allied...
Questions?

Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
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Transcript of "Nat DiBuduo, Allied Grape Growers"

  1. 1. SJVWA Annual Meeting & Industry Forum Nat DiBuduo Allied Grape Growers December 5, 2013 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Answering Some Key Industry Questions……. Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  3. 3. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#1: Just how big was this crop? •Related Questions: Are we in supply/demand balance? Will our domestic supply depress imports? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  4. 4. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Just how big was this crop? Production Analysis A regional look at production Stated in tons crushed Region North Coast Central Coast Lodi/Clarksburg Central Interior Other Total Four-Year Average 470,642 495,405 802,646 1,814,438 80,003 3,663,134 2012 579,852 548,444 916,138 1,884,293 89,510 4,018,237 2013 Estimate 525,000 500,000 920,000 2,000,000 80,000 4,025,000 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved. % Above Average 12% 1% 15% 10% 0% 10%
  5. 5. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Just how big was this crop? California Production Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  6. 6. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#1: Just how big was this crop? •Related Questions: Are we in supply/demand balance going forward? Will our domestic supply depress imports? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  7. 7. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we in supply/demand balance going forward? California Wine Shipments 2005-2012, with estimates and projections thru 2016 Millions of Tons 5.0 Projected Need: 3.74 3.80 3.87 3.93 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Est. Est. Est. Est. California Wine Shipment Data Source: The Gomberg Fredrikson Report Updated March 2013 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  8. 8. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we in supply/demand balance going forward? Crop Year Winegrape Tons Crushed or Projected Bearing Winegrape Acres Estimated by the State (2012-2016 = AGG Est.) 2005 3,755,166 477,000 7.87 2006 3,136,000 480,000 6.53 2007 3,247,504 480,000 6.77 2008 3,014,769 482,000 6.25 2009 3,703,031 489,000 7.57 2010 3,588,985 497,000 7.22 2011 3,342,689 506,000 6.61 2012 4,018,237 520,000 7.73 2013 4,025,000 535,000 7.52 2014 3,932,500 550,000 7.15 2015 4,039,750 565,000 7.15 2016 4,248,000 590,000 7.20 Average per acre yield from 2005-2012: Average Winegrape Yield 7.07 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  9. 9. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we in supply/demand balance going forward? California Wine Shipments 2005-2012, with estimates and projections thru 2016 Millions of Tons 5.0 Projected Need: 3.74 3.80 3.87 3.93 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Est. Est. Est. Est. California Wine Shipment Data Source: The Gomberg Fredrikson Report Updated March 2013 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  10. 10. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we in supply/demand balance going forward? California Wine Shipments 2005-2012, with estimates and projections thru 2016 Millions of Tons 5.0 4.5 2014-2016: The forecasted winegrape crush less 220,000 tons for other uses Balanced 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Est. Est. Est. Est. California Wine Shipment Data Source: The Gomberg Fredrikson Report Updated November 2013 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  11. 11. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#1: Just how big was this crop? •Related Questions: Are we in supply/demand balance going forward? Will our domestic supply depress imports? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  12. 12. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Exchange Rates (Value to $1 U.S.), January 2008 - December 2013 Chilean Peso Aust $ Arg Peso Euro & Pound 1200 6.00 1100 5.50 1000 5.00 900 4.50 800 4.00 700 3.50 600 3.00 500 2.50 400 2.00 300 1.50 200 1.00 100 0.50 0 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Chilean Peso Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Argentine Peso Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Australian Dollar Jul 12 Euro Jan 13 Jul 13 0.00 Dec 13 British Pound Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  13. 13. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk (In Millions of Cases) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Total +12% Total -1% -2% -5% Total +0% +7% Total +7% Total +16% +3% Total -4% -2% +7% +71% -23% +92% -20% +26% +27% 2008 2009 Data obtained via the Gomberg Fredrikson Report 2010 2011 Bottled Imports 2012 Bulk Imports Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved. 2013 Tracking
  14. 14. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Millions of Tons California Grapes Crushed for Wine vs. California Wine Shipments 2005-2012 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 California Wine Shipment Data Source: The Gomberg Fredrikson Report. 2007 2008 2009 2010 Grapes Crushed for Wine 2011 2012 Wine Shipments Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  15. 15. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk (In Millions of Cases) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Total +12% Total -1% -2% -5% Total +0% +7% Total +7% Total +16% +3% Total -4% -2% +7% +71% -23% +92% -20% +26% +27% 2008 2009 Data obtained via the Gomberg Fredrikson Report 2010 2011 Bottled Imports 2012 Bulk Imports Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved. 2013 Tracking
  16. 16. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Millions of Tons California Grapes Crushed for Wine vs. California Wine Shipments 2005-2012 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 California Wine Shipment Data Source: The Gomberg Fredrikson Report. 2007 2008 2009 2010 Grapes Crushed for Wine 2011 2012 Wine Shipments Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  17. 17. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk (In Millions of Cases) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Total +12% Total -1% -2% -5% Total +0% +7% Total +7% Total +16% +3% Total -4% -2% +7% +71% -23% +92% -20% +26% +27% 2008 2009 Data obtained via the Gomberg Fredrikson Report 2010 2011 Bottled Imports 2012 Bulk Imports Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved. 2013 Tracking
  18. 18. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Millions of Tons California Grapes Crushed for Wine vs. California Wine Shipments 2005-2012 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 California Wine Shipment Data Source: The Gomberg Fredrikson Report. 2007 2008 2009 2010 Grapes Crushed for Wine 2011 2012 Wine Shipments Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  19. 19. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will our domestic supply depress imports? Imported Wine - Bottled and Bulk (In Millions of Cases) 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Total +12% Total -1% -2% -5% Total +0% +7% Total +7% Total +16% +3% Total -4% -2% +7% +71% -23% +92% -20% +26% +27% 2008 2009 Data obtained via the Gomberg Fredrikson Report 2010 2011 Bottled Imports 2012 Bulk Imports Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved. 2013 Tracking
  20. 20. The Answers: Question#1: Just how big was this crop? BIG….. About 10% above recent history •Related Questions: Are we in supply/demand balance? YES Will our domestic supply depress imports? YES – it should based on inventory and exchange rates, but the timing on bulk and vs. bottled may be different. Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  21. 21. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#2: What are current planting trends? •Related Questions: What varieties are hot? What areas are being planted? Are we over-planting? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  22. 22. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Each January, Allied Grape Growers conducts a confidential & voluntary survey of California grapevine nurseries to determine up-to-date planting trends. Data is aggregated for the purpose of identifying what is being planted, how much, and where. Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  23. 23. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#2: What are current planting trends? •Related Questions: What varieties are hot? What areas are being planted? Are we over-planting? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  24. 24. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What varieties are hot? Annual Vine Sales Leaders, Based on AGG Nursery Surveys: •2012 - Cabernet Sauvignon, then French Colombard •2011 - Muscat of Alexander, then Cabernet Sauvignon •2010 - Cabernet Sauvignon, then Chardonnay & Rubired •2009 - Chardonnay, then Cabernet Sauvignon •2008 - Pinot Noir, then Chardonnay Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  25. 25. Answering Some Key Industry Questions 39% White What varieties are hot? 2012 Winegrape Vines Sold by California Nurseries French Colombard 13% Cabernet Sauvignon 25% Chardonnay Other Whites Include: 10% Gewurztraminer Riesling Viognier Sauvignon Blanc Other Reds Include: Grenache Petite Verdot Cab Franc Rubired Syrah Barbera Pinot Noir 10% Ruby Cab Tempranillo Muscat of Alexander 7% Muscat Canelli 1% Pinot Grigio 3% Other White Varieties 5% Other Red Varieties 9% 61% Red Zin/Primitivo 6% Malbec 4% Merlot Petite Sirah 3% 4% Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  26. 26. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#2: What are current planting trends? •Related Questions: What varieties are hot? What areas are being planted? Are we over-planting? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  27. 27. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What areas are being planted? Categorical Allocation of Vines Sold by California Nurseries, 2011 High Mid Value Note the amount of green on this chart vs. burgundy or gray. Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  28. 28. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What areas are being planted? Regional Allocation of Major Winegrape Vines Sold, 2012 Cabernet Sauvignon High End Mid Range Value Vine sales began trending toward the coast in 2012 French Colombard Pinot Noir Chardonnay Muscat Alexander Zinfandel/ Primitivo Merlot Malbec Pinot Grigio Muscat Canelli Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  29. 29. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#2: What are current planting trends? •Related Questions: What varieties are hot? What areas are being planted? Are we over-planting? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  30. 30. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 Growing Demand; Demand Good, stalls; Acreage but Acreage Oversupply Moderate Growing Peaks; Chronic Expansion Demand, but Oversupply Rapid Growing Expansion Demand; No Growth Moderate from the Expansion 1980s 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  31. 31. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections Growing Demand; Moderate Expansion 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 Growing Demand; Moderate Expansion 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  32. 32. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections 700,000 600,000 Growing Demand; Rapid Expansion 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  33. 33. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections 700,000 600,000 CAUSED 500,000 THIS 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  34. 34. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections 700,000 600,000 THIS CAUSED 500,000 THIS 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  35. 35. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections 700,000 600,000 Growing Demand; Rapid Expansion Are we Entering a Period of Rapid Expansion? 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  36. 36. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections 700,000 600,000 Growing Demand; Rapid Expansion We know this is coming for 2015 & 2016, but is it rapid expansion? 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  37. 37. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections Only if we 700,000 600,000 Continue the Recent Planting Trend 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  38. 38. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Are we over-planting? Estimated California Bearing Winegrape Acres From 1990 with projections Moderate 700,000 600,000 Moderate Planting Defined: +/-15,000 NET new acres per year Planting Matches the Trend 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  39. 39. The Answers: Question#2: What are current planting trends? Cab in the coast and slowing in the interior •Related Questions: What varieties are hot? Cabernet Sauvignon and some SJV generics What areas are being planted? Previously the interior, now the coast Are we over-planting? Coast – not likely; Interior – possibly Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  40. 40. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#3: What does the future hold? •Related Questions: Will California winegrape prices be stable? What happened to Thompsons?!?! Will today’s higher grape prices slow sales? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  41. 41. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What does the future hold? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  42. 42. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What does the future hold? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  43. 43. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#3: What does the future hold? •Related Questions: Will California winegrape prices be stable? What happened to Thompsons?!?! Will today’s higher grape prices slow sales? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  44. 44. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will California winegrape prices be stable? Three major factors driving price (demand) over the last 2-3 years. #3: The relatively weak dollar #2: Competition from alternative crops (nuts) #1: Supply planning for future (shortage) Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  45. 45. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#3: What does the future hold? •Related Questions: Will California winegrape prices be stable? What happened to Thompsons?!?! Will today’s higher grape prices slow sales? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  46. 46. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What happened to Thompsons?!?! Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  47. 47. Answering Some Key Industry Questions What happened to Thompsons?!?! Major factors driving Thompson price #4: Winery use – Wine, Brandy, Alcohol #3: Concentrate (Demand and Inventory) #2: Crop size #1: Raisin industry demand Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  48. 48. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Question#3: What does the future hold? •Related Questions: Will California winegrape prices be stable? What happened to Thompsons?!?! Will today’s higher grape prices slow sales? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  49. 49. Answering Some Key Industry Questions Will today’s higher grape prices slow sales? Every $100 in grape value = $.12 in the bottle Chard - Sonoma Chard - Monterey (Dist 7) Chard - Lodi Chard - SJV (Dist 13) Muscat - SJV ( Dist 13) Cab Sauv - Napa Cab Sauv - Paso (Dist 8) Cab Sauv - Lodi Cab Sauv - SJV (Dist 13) Pinot - Santa Barb (Dist 8) Pinot - Mendocino Zinfandel (Red) - Lodi All Winegrapes Statewide Average Price 2010 $ 1,808 $ 894 $ 451 $ 333 $ 361 $ 4,242 $ 924 $ 511 $ 357 $ 2,539 $ 2,300 $ 658 $ 582 Average Price 2011 $ 1,828 $ 1,068 $ 524 $ 408 $ 398 $ 4,518 $ 1,072 $ 633 $ 486 $ 2,709 $ 2,412 $ 760 $ 640 Average Estimated Bottle Price Price Addition: 2012 Grape Cost Only $ 1,874 $ 0.08 $ 1,141 $ 0.30 $ 568 $ 0.14 $ 473 $ 0.17 $ 400 $ 0.05 $ 5,067 $ 0.99 $ 1,276 $ 0.42 $ 738 $ 0.27 $ 542 $ 0.22 $ 2,638 $ 0.12 $ 2,500 $ 0.24 $ 940 $ 0.34 $ 772 $ 0.23 Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  50. 50. The Answers: Question#3: What does the future hold? No immediate shortage of wine Related Questions: Will California winegrape prices be stable? Mostly yes, but spot market softening What happened to the Thompsons?!?! Premature speculation of a low raisin price Will today’s higher grape prices slow sales? Not necessarily, but it may mean lower winery margins Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  51. 51. Closing Thoughts • Global market is ever-changing in quality/quantity -Need for California research and outreach • State of the Industry - Healthy, Growing & Stable • Sustainability’s role in the future success of the SJV wine industry • SJV - Major supply contributor to California wines -At various price points Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  52. 52. Quality, proper planning and economic sustainability will keep our industry strong and successful into the future. Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
  53. 53. Questions? Allied Grape Growers, 2013. All rights reserved.
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